evidence suggests little guards don't age well as their speed goes
What evidence would that be?
Of the 50 oldest players in the league, how many small guards are there?
Name the top 10 players 32 and older, 6 ft and under.
I don't know the answers but it passes the sniff test that very small players might not age well.
That's the wrong question. The question to ask is: What percentage of small players -- who are talented enough to even become rotation players in the NBA -- are able to still have productive seasons past age X? How does that percentage compare to the percentage of taller players?
Here is perhaps a more meaningful search, which is the list of the 23 players who were 5-11 or shorter who actually played at least 6000 minutes in the NBA (that would be roughly 3 full time seasons, meaning that player was good enough to maybe become a regular rotation player at some point).
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=6000&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none
The most important thing about this search, is that it shows that there have been very, very few ‘little guys’ who have been good enough to carve out real careers in the NBA. Just 23 names.
That means the statistics for any conclusions about how well they age are going to be based on very tiny numbers.
If you redo the search for height 6-0 or higher, you find that 1328 players have had careers with at least 6000 minutes. Quite a bit more, naturaly.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=72&height_max=100&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=gt&c1val=6000&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws#stats::none
Now, let’s do a slightly different search, which is for all the players 5-11 or shorter who are over age 30 and who played enough in at least one season to qualify for the leaderboards. What’s interesting about this list, is that there are 19 names on it.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=30&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=71&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=pts_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp#stats::none
That means that 19 (83%) of the 23 ‘short’ players who ever carved out any sort of career of just 6000 minutes managed to play at least one rotation-level season after age 30. And 7(30%) of the 23 managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.
If you do the same search for players 6-0 or higher, you get 751 (57%) of the 1328 who managed to play at least one such season after age 30 and 334 (25%) who managed to play 3 or more such seasons after age 30.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=total&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&per_poss_base=100&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=&year_max=&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=30&age_max=99&height_min=72&height_max=100&shoot_hand=&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&birth_state=&college_id=&draft_year=&is_active=&debut_yr_nba_start=&debut_yr_nba_end=&debut_yr_aba_start=&debut_yr_aba_end=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=&award=&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=pts_per_g_req&c1stat=&c1comp=gt&c1val=&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=mp#stats::none
This data strongly suggests that shorter players do not age worse than taller players. The contrary, actually.
So if they played a day over 30, they aged well. If they collected a paycheck in their 30's, they aged well? Your reading of data is... mind-bending.
7 "short" players in history played 3 seasons over 30. 7 people, ever. Your conclusion: short players age BETTER than taller players. Because 7/23.
How long do you suppose IT will be able to score 18 a game? Just curious.
Where are you reading, "a day over 30". The threshold required at least one full season qualifying for the leader boards in minutes played. That's not, "a day".
And the requirement was the same for both shorter and taller players.
Where is the evidence that the shorter players age worse?
Here is another, more anecdotal survey: Let's go even shorter, all the way down to the 5' 9" mark, since Isaiah is still under that.
Just seven players in the NBA under 5’ 10" have carved out careers greater than just 4000 measly minutes. So we can look in close detail at those players.
Calvin Murphy played 10 seasons, to age 34, posting Win Shares of 6.8, 7.2 & 5.4 in his age 30, 31 & 32 seasons. He finally went part time, playing just 1200 & 1400 minutes his final two seasons.
Mugsy Bogues played 14 seasons, to age 36. His age 30 season was still huge, playing over 2600 minutes and posting 8.6 Win Shares, but then he got injured and missed most of his age 31 season. He came back strong for 1800+ minutes and 5.0 WS in his age 32 season, then had another rough age 33 season. He then had one last solid age 35 season, posting 1700+ minutes and a very respectable 3.7 WS. His final season he only played in 3 games.
Spud Webb played parts of 12 seasons to age 34, though his age 32 season was really his last one as a rotation player. Through age 32, though, he was solid. His age 31-32 seasons he posted 2567, 2458 & 1462 minutes and accrued 5.1, 5.1 & 3.0 WS.
Nate Robinson played for 10 seasons, including this last one, when he appeared in just 2 games at age 31. His last really good season was his age 28 season for Chicago, when he had a great year playing over 2000 minutes and accruing 5.9 WS.
Earl Boykins played in 13 seasons to age 35. He didn’t really start getting large rotation minutes until age 26, after which he was a rotation player mostly through his age 33 season.
Isaiah Thomas just played his 5th season at age 26.
Charlie Criss started his NBA career at age 29 and played to age 36. He mostly was a bench player, but got solid rotation minutes (1400-1900 minutes) from age 29-33.
So, looks like most of these guys aged rather well.
I have no idea how long Isaiah can continue to average 18+ points per game, but barring major injury, he seems likely to still be a very, very productive player through age 32.
Topic: Unlikely but rational I.T trade (Read 6135 times)