Horford + Poeltl + Sabonis

[KG Living Legend]

 It be a little tough for me to swallow Poeltl at 3. Would love to swap with Phoenix and pick up 13 where we could grab Sabonis or D. Jones.

 That would significantly upgrade our frontcourt IMHO. I love Sabonis and Poeltl looks to be a rock solid Center. I think Murray is the BPA, however it's very appealing to bring in three bigs that can defend and rebound at a high level.

 They also move extremely well laterally and on the perimeter. Especially the two young fellas.

 Poeltl
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Olynyk, Sabonis, Smart, Turner, Rozier

 And it would be great if Durant wanted to play with his buddy Horford next year lol.
 

[KG Living Legend]

 Like to hear some thoughts if we could still get Sabonis or Jones around #16. Are we better off bringing in a scorer at #3 like Murray or Hield or Dunn.

[PickNRoll]

I agree with everything you said.  I like Poeltl, and I think you can get him at 5 or 6.  I like Murray and I'd happily take him 3rd, but it's possible you could get him 5th.

The thing is, when we look back at drafts they're always more binary -- that you should either take Poeltl or not.  If he's worth taking at 5, he's probably worth taking at 3.  In our minds, the value of #3 is conflated.  In reality, picking the right guy is WAY more important than fretting over a couple slots.

e.g. in 2009, should I take Steph Curry 4th?  Prevailing wisdom was that 4th was "too high".  Too many question marks.  7 years later, what does "too high" even mean?  Derozan went 9th and Teague went 19th.  You don't bother assigning draft slots or fair value.  Like Danny taking Rozier.  If you like Poeltl, take him 3rd.

Sabonis is basically a can't-miss bruising, rebounding role player.  Very smart and tough.  Would happily take him with our 2nd pick.

[Lucky17]

Perhaps PHX at #13 would consider sliding down to #16?

BOS could swap late 1sts (#23 out, #28 in) and maybe toss in a middling second rounder for the trouble.

[KG Living Legend]

I agree with everything you said.  I like Poeltl, and I think you can get him at 5 or 6.  I like Murray and I'd happily take him 3rd, but it's possible you could get him 5th.

The thing is, when we look back at drafts they're always more binary -- that you should either take Poeltl or not.  If he's worth taking at 5, he's probably worth taking at 3.  In our minds, the value of #3 is conflated.  In reality, picking the right guy is WAY more important than fretting over a couple slots.

e.g. in 2009, should I take Steph Curry 4th?  Prevailing wisdom was that 4th was "too high".  Too many question marks.  7 years later, what does "too high" even mean?  Derozan went 9th and Teague went 19th.  You don't bother assigning draft slots or fair value.  Like Danny taking Rozier.  If you like Poeltl, take him 3rd.

Sabonis is basically a can't-miss bruising, rebounding role player.  Very smart and tough.  Would happily take him with our 2nd pick.

 Tp PunknRoll, Great analysis.

[KG Living Legend]

Perhaps PHX at #13 would consider sliding down to #16?

BOS could swap late 1sts (#23 out, #28 in) and maybe toss in a middling second rounder for the trouble.

 I here you Lucky, I want that 13th pick so bad for some reason. I'm so darn greedy. It assures us of a solid big like Sabonis, Jones, Davis where at 16 I'm not as confident.

[HomerSapien]

I like Poeltl.  He's one of the guys I feel most confident in projecting to be a long term starter with his size and foot work.  I also think he is very unlikely to be a superstar.  He kind of reminds me of a Jonas Valanciunas-type of center.  Solid, but unspectacular.

[PickNRoll]

I like Poeltl.  He's one of the guys I feel most confident in projecting to be a long term starter with his size and foot work.  I also think he is very unlikely to be a superstar.  He kind of reminds me of a Jonas Valanciunas-type of center.  Solid, but unspectacular.

Agree.  And you would snap up Valanciunus at #3 in a heartbeat.

[CFAN38]

I agree with everything you said.  I like Poeltl, and I think you can get him at 5 or 6.  I like Murray and I'd happily take him 3rd, but it's possible you could get him 5th.

The thing is, when we look back at drafts they're always more binary -- that you should either take Poeltl or not.  If he's worth taking at 5, he's probably worth taking at 3.  In our minds, the value of #3 is conflated.  In reality, picking the right guy is WAY more important than fretting over a couple slots.

e.g. in 2009, should I take Steph Curry 4th?  Prevailing wisdom was that 4th was "too high".  Too many question marks.  7 years later, what does "too high" even mean?  Derozan went 9th and Teague went 19th.  You don't bother assigning draft slots or fair value.  Like Danny taking Rozier.  If you like Poeltl, take him 3rd.

Sabonis is basically a can't-miss bruising, rebounding role player.  Very smart and tough.  Would happily take him with our 2nd pick.

I agree. I think both Poeltl and Sabonis will be productive NBA player. Poeltl has the potential to be a very well rounded starting center who gives a team 12pts+ 9rb+ and boarder line all defensive team level defense. Not a sexy pick but the team that drafts him and properly develops him for 2 season will be very happy. Sabonis is an NBA ready rebounder who will have a long productive career as a starter on fringe playoff teams or a bench big on good teams. I liken him to a better rebounding Hansbourgh.

[PickNRoll]

I agree with everything you said.  I like Poeltl, and I think you can get him at 5 or 6.  I like Murray and I'd happily take him 3rd, but it's possible you could get him 5th.

The thing is, when we look back at drafts they're always more binary -- that you should either take Poeltl or not.  If he's worth taking at 5, he's probably worth taking at 3.  In our minds, the value of #3 is conflated.  In reality, picking the right guy is WAY more important than fretting over a couple slots.

e.g. in 2009, should I take Steph Curry 4th?  Prevailing wisdom was that 4th was "too high".  Too many question marks.  7 years later, what does "too high" even mean?  Derozan went 9th and Teague went 19th.  You don't bother assigning draft slots or fair value.  Like Danny taking Rozier.  If you like Poeltl, take him 3rd.

Sabonis is basically a can't-miss bruising, rebounding role player.  Very smart and tough.  Would happily take him with our 2nd pick.

I agree. I think both Poeltl and Sabonis will be productive NBA player. Poeltl has the potential to be a very well rounded starting center who gives a team 12pts+ 9rb+ and boarder line all defensive team level defense. Not a sexy pick but the team that drafts him and properly develops him for 2 season will be very happy. Sabonis is an NBA ready rebounder who will have a long productive career as a starter on fringe playoff teams or a bench big on good teams. I liken him to a better rebounding Hansbourgh.

Yep.  A little more polished offensively than Hansborough too.

[Beat LA]

 It be a little tough for me to swallow Poeltl at 3. Would love to swap with Phoenix and pick up 13 where we could grab Sabonis or D. Jones.

 That would significantly upgrade our frontcourt IMHO. I love Sabonis and Poeltl looks to be a rock solid Center. I think Murray is the BPA, however it's very appealing to bring in three bigs that can defend and rebound at a high level.

 They also move extremely well laterally and on the perimeter. Especially the two young fellas.

 Poeltl
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Olynyk, Sabonis, Smart, Turner, Rozier

 And it would be great if Durant wanted to play with his buddy Horford next year lol.

Damian Jones at 13?  Yikes.  Why oh why would you ever pick him, let alone at the back end of the lottery?

[PickNRoll]

 It be a little tough for me to swallow Poeltl at 3. Would love to swap with Phoenix and pick up 13 where we could grab Sabonis or D. Jones.

 That would significantly upgrade our frontcourt IMHO. I love Sabonis and Poeltl looks to be a rock solid Center. I think Murray is the BPA, however it's very appealing to bring in three bigs that can defend and rebound at a high level.

 They also move extremely well laterally and on the perimeter. Especially the two young fellas.

 Poeltl
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Olynyk, Sabonis, Smart, Turner, Rozier

 And it would be great if Durant wanted to play with his buddy Horford next year lol.

Damian Jones at 13?  Yikes.  Why oh why would you ever pick him, let alone at the back end of the lottery?

He could be available at 23, but I'm never surprised when 7 footers move up.  There's just a limited number of them.  I didn't get to watch him at all this year.  It sounds like you did.  What's your take on Jones?

[McNoob]

If the C's signed Horford, I would be much more comfortable sticking him at the 5 and drafting a PF like Bender/Chriss than Poetl. Horford is already in his 30s, and with the PF position kinda disappearing, Bender/Chriss at least provide more flexibility in the frontcourt.

[Beat LA]

 It be a little tough for me to swallow Poeltl at 3. Would love to swap with Phoenix and pick up 13 where we could grab Sabonis or D. Jones.

 That would significantly upgrade our frontcourt IMHO. I love Sabonis and Poeltl looks to be a rock solid Center. I think Murray is the BPA, however it's very appealing to bring in three bigs that can defend and rebound at a high level.

 They also move extremely well laterally and on the perimeter. Especially the two young fellas.

 Poeltl
 Horford
 Crowder
 Bradley
 Thomas

 Olynyk, Sabonis, Smart, Turner, Rozier

 And it would be great if Durant wanted to play with his buddy Horford next year lol.

Damian Jones at 13?  Yikes.  Why oh why would you ever pick him, let alone at the back end of the lottery?

He could be available at 23, but I'm never surprised when 7 footers move up.  There's just a limited number of them.  I didn't get to watch him at all this year.  It sounds like you did.  What's your take on Jones?

Lol, I actually didn't, but, and I've posted this in another thread, everything I've read about him raises too many red flags.  Here you go -

http://www.nbadraft.net/players/damian-jones

NBA Comparison: Festus Ezeli
Strengths: Physically, Jones has ideal size, strength and speed for a center in today’s fast-paced NBA ... He’s tall (6'11”), long (7’2” wingspan), with broad shoulders, strength and high level speed and athletic ability ... He’s able to get up and down the floor very well for a player his size … He’s got very good touch around the rim and shows the ability to hit shots out to 15-18 feet ... Good at finishing on the block, provided he isn't forced to create a basket against a strong defender ... Between that and his improved shot selection, he’s become a very efficient player, shooting nearly 60% from the floor last season … His length and athleticism could lead him to a role as a very good help-side post defender … Additionally, he shows potential to become an even more potent offensive weapon with his improving mid-range jumper ... Jones is an intelligent, high-character guy who puts in the work off the court and without question be a good teammate at the next level ... Shows very well in workouts where his athleticism and shooting stroke make an intriguing combination ... Shows a lot of potential with the ability to be a dominant force when he's on his game ...

Weaknesses: Sustaining a high level of intensity and focus is his biggest obstacle ... Jones laid back attitude often manifests itself on the court, and his inability to consistently play to his ability is a concern ... He often disappears from games and currently lacks the tenacity needed to be a dominant presence inside ... Success will likely be highly contingent on landing in the right situation with coaches that understand how to build his confidence and get the most out of his abilities ... Competitiveness and feel for the game comes into question ... It is baffling how poorly (6.9 per game) he rebounds for someone with his physical attributes ... Post skills have not progressed as expected and still need work ... Has the length and hops to be a real presence inside, but doesn’t really have the rebounding numbers or defensive prowess to show for it ... Had a tough time emerging as Vanderbilt's clearcut star, depite being the best talent ... Jones productivity and efficiency (scoring, FG%, FT%, minutes) decreased accross the board as a junior ... He gets to the line at a decent rate, but struggled to convert once there ... Regressed as a free throw shooter last year, connecting on a college career-low 54% from the stripe ... Needs to work on becoming a bigger presence on both ends of the floor ... Commits a fair amount of turnovers with a lack of significant assist numbers ... Not particularly adept at passing out of double-teams ... Despite having a very strong frame, can be pushed around at times, so adding some lower body strength and especially toughness will be key ...

Overall: Jones is a springy, skilled center who has the potential to make an impact at the next level, but often struggled to consistently make an impact at the college level ... He’ll need to become more tenacious and a bit stronger in order to find the consistency to stick in an NBA rotation, but the framework is there and he's by all accounts considered a high character kid ..

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Damian-Jones-7211/

Standing 6'11.5 in shoes with a tremendous 7'3.75 wingspan and a 244-pound frame that carries just 6.6% body fat, it isn't hard to figure out what makes Jones an intriguing NBA prospect on first glance. He may not be an Andre Drummond or DeAndre Jordan-level freak of nature, but has everything scouts look for in a center prospect physically, and a frame that still has room to grow. On top of his sheer size, Jones is also a good athlete for his size with a good mobility and explosiveness, even if he doesn't appear to be the most fluid strider running up and down the floor.

Playing nearly the exact same role that he did a year ago, Jones averaged a very respectable 1.01 points per possession over 13.5 possessions per game as a junior, a side-step from the .992 he scored over 14.6 per game as a sophomore. Doing the majority of his scoring one-on-one on the block, the Louisiana native was asked to use his size to his advantage against smaller defenders and finish shots created for him in the half court. Not the most polished player in terms of his instincts as a scorer and passer, Jones was not asked to be particularly versatile for Vanderbilt.

Finishing the year shooting an impressive 56% on the block, the 20-year-old big man doesn't have the most polished offensive repertoire, but his size, couple with flashes of touch on his turnaround jump shot and right handed hook allowed him to be quite effective in spurts creating for himself inside. Lacking much in the way of counter moves, Jones gets tunnel vision at times and his shot selection and feel for creating for himself isn't ideal, but as much as his game isn't pretty, it was quite efficient a year ago.

Aside from his ability to score on the block, Jones did his best work by far as a finisher around the rim. Shooting 68% around the basket in the half court, the athletic big man is quick off his feet and can dunk the ball effortlessly. The limiting factor on Jones's effectiveness inside last season was how frequently he settled for difficult shots, brought the ball low allowing the defense to get into position, and didn't go up quite as strong as one would hope in traffic. To his credit, Jones didn't necessarily shy away from contact, as he got to the line for 7.7 free throws per-40 minutes pace adjusted.

Unfortunately, Jones only converted 54% of his free throws last season, down from 61% a year before. His struggles at the line aren't surprising, as he made just 26% of his jump shots in the half court as well. Showing some flashes making jumpers out to 15-17 feet, but not with the kind of consistency you'd hope, Jones seems to have some upside as a shooter, but remains a long way away from being a reliable threat from the midrange. Similarly, he flashes the ability to put the ball on the floor an attack slower defenders driving to the rim, but often forces wild shots when he can't get an angle.

On the whole, Jones isn't an incapable scorer, but he disappeared for stretches on the offensive end, which proved problematic on a team that could have really benefited from a workhorse scoring presence. Jones doesn't always impose his will on games, lacking a degree of toughness, intensity and assertiveness at times, but his ability to finish around the rim, draw contact, and make the most of his tools on the glass figure to be far bigger part of his role than his ability to consistently impact the game on the block. His skill level is still a work in progress and his feel and motor leave something to be desired, but we've seen a number of big men with similar physical gifts make significant leaps or find key roles at the NBA level with better coaching and player development than they found in college. The team selecting Jones will hope he can take a page out of former Vanderbilt big man Festus Ezeli's book and grow into a rotation player.

Defensively, Jones is a bit of a mixed bag. Blocking a solid 2.5 shots per 40-minutes pace adjusted, Jones has some impressive flashes rejecting would-be scorers, but doesn't have great instincts contesting shots on the ball and isn't always as physically aggressive as you'd like a player his size to be around the rim. His instincts and passivity on the defensive glass are a more consistent issue as he pulled down just 7.1 defensive rebounder per-40 minutes pace adjusted, the fourth lowest mark among the 13 centers ranked in our top-100, behind a number of players with far less impressive physical profiles.

Jones has the quickness to step away from the rim and defend the perimeter fairly impressively in spurts and the strength to hold his own in the post, but he frequently gets caught in no man's land, is a step slow with his awareness, and doesn't show great anticipation. Jones clearly has the physical tools to be a factor on this end, and the flashes of potential he shows leave some room for optimism, but his instincts are still catching up.

Frustratingly inconsistent at times over the course of his three-year collegiate career, Jones is a one of the younger prospects in our junior rankings at just 20 years old. An Engineering Science major who has consistently been lauded for his intelligence off the floor, the flashes of good things Jones showed, coupled with his physical tools, give him the type of upside that could lead a team to bet on him in the mid to late first round. A late bloomer of sorts (RSCI #91), they'll hope he can begin to develop the kind of mean streak and consistency that would help him make better use of his physical tools as he enters his 20s, as players in his mold often develop later than most.

I couldn't find the recent one from hoopshype, but I did come across the first line of said report, after which I stopped reading, lol,"When Jones is engaged, he appears to be a future NBA starting center.

[crimson_stallion]

 Like to hear some thoughts if we could still get Sabonis or Jones around #16. Are we better off bringing in a scorer at #3 like Murray or Hield or Dunn.

I firmly believe we should go for one of Hield/Murray/Dunn at #3, because one beautiful thing about this draft is that it's full of talented bigs outside of the top 10 - perfect for our situation where we have so many draft picks. 

Personally, I would take Hield at #3 and then try to trade #16 and #23 and #35  (maybe throw in James Young) to try and move up into the top 12. 

The following guys should all go in the top 7:

- Simmons
- Ingram
- Bender
- Brown
- Murray
- Hield
- Dunn

That means if you can move up to #12, you should be guaranteed to have at least one of the following guys available:

* Poeltl
* Chriss
* Ellenson
* Labissiere
* Sabonis   
* Davis

Everybody on that list looks like someone who would either contribute now (Poeltl, Ellenson, Sabonis), or has huge potential (Chriss, Labissiere, Davis).