Butler vs Middleton vs Hayward

[LarBrd33]

EDIT:  Bumping this from a few weeks ago, because not surprisingly Ainge is targeting all three of these guys.


Jimmy Butler's the one everyone seems to want.  He's the biggest name of the three.  He's had the better stats.  He's likely going to cost the most. 

Curious what you guys think of alternatives like Gordon Hayward and Khris Middleton.  What do you think they'd cost?

Here's a rundown of the players, their stats, and how they performed after the all-star break (Middleton is the youngest of the three and started breaking out so I feel it's relevant).

Player:  Jimmy Butler
Age:  26
Height/Weight:  6'7 220
Contract:  17-19 mil per year through 2019
2015 Stats:  20.9 points, 4.8 assists, 5.3 rebounds, 1.6 steals .454/.312/.832 in 36.9mpg
Post All-star:  17.1 points, 6.1 assists, 5.7 rebounds, 1.5 steals .443/.244/.846 in 34.5mpg

Player:  Gordon Hayward
Age:  26
Height/Weight: 6'8 226
Contract:  16 mil expiring (player option in 2017)
2015 Stats:  19.7 points, 3.7 assists, 5.0 rebounds, 1.2 steals .433/.349/.824 in 36.2mpg
Post All-star:  19.5 points, 3.8 assists, 4.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals .433/.343/.819 in 36.3mpg

Player:  Khris Middleton
Age:  24
Height/Weight:  6'8 234
Contract:  15-13 mil through 2019 (paid less in the last two seasons)
2015 Stats:  18.2 points, 4.2 assists, 3.8 rebounds, 1.7 steals .444/.396/.888 in 36.1mpg
Post All-star:  18.8 points, 4.6 assists, 3.9 rebounds, 2.4 steals .474/.375/.923 in 36mpg


Ultimately, we're looking for a guy who can shoot and defend.  We have solid ballhandlers at the guard positions and I don't necessarily care a lot about rebounding at that position... so I'm not putting a huge priority on assists and rebounds.  We need someone who can knock down shots and play solid defense.

Is it crazy that I'd be most excited about adding Middleton? 

He's the youngest of the three, has the best contract, has the most size, appears to be the best shooter, and is a pretty solid defender.   Also, considering that the Bucks already have Giannis and Jabari (who was breaking out last season as well), they don't necessarily need Middleton. 

What's your thoughts?  What do you think it would take to get Middleton?  The rumored price for Butler seems to be Avery Bradley + #3 + #16 + Rozier.  Could you get Middleton for less?

[chambers]

Don't want any part of Hayward but I like Middleton.

The reason I like Butler the most is because he can get to the hole and score- which will only benefit with more spacing in a movement offense.
Middleton is a good shooter but not the best dribble/drive scorer.

My choice is Butler because he's an elite defender and has the same if not better scoring ability than the other two, although he is more likely to wear down or get injured.

Also important to note that Butler had a pretty bad injury which hurt his numbers post All Star break.
Before the All Star break he was a top 10 scorer and a top 10 defender. I think that constitutes a top 10 NBA player. The other two aren't top 10 NBA players.

[Celtics4ever]

I am braced for an alternative, as I see the big fish as unlikely.

[LilRip]

I like Middleton. Would be interesting to see what the Bucks do with their glut of wings. Of course, they might just keep them all similar to how we've kept all our guards so far.

[mr. dee]

How about MKG? His value is low right now maybe Danny can offer Jordan some lowball deal. Young and Hunter for Kidd-Gilchrist.

[rickyfan3.0...]

Why do people liek Hayward so much? He's a nice player but i don't want to tie up Cap Space in a 1-way player like that.

[saltlover]

It should be noted that both Butler and Hayward have trade kickers.  Butler's contract will count between $18.4 and $20.7 million against the cap over the next 3 years, and Hayward would count $18.6 million this year.

Middleton's game took a nice step forward this year.  The Bucks PG situation was not good, which in part caused the percentage of Middleton's assisted baskets to drop from near 60% to 41.5%.  At the same time, he didn't suffer any significant loss in efficiency (TS% went from .563 to .560.). Furthermore, his own assist rate went up 50%.  He's really become a much better shot creator, for both himself and others.  Butler, took a similar step forward, and was a little more efficient with his shooting.  I'd call Middleton "Butler-lite."

I'm not sure Hayward has ever actually been able to play with a real PG.  The last two years he's had only about 30% of his shots assisted, while leading his team in assists last year.  Despite this, he's had virtually the same TS numbers as Middleton, and isn't far off Butler.  Hayward's game has really been a more efficient DeMar DeRozan than it has been like Butler's or Middleton's.  Offensively, I like Hayward the best, and I really think his game could benefit from playing along IT, and I think our offense could benefit from having someone who's been proven comfortable at creating his own opportunities.  That said, he has the worst reputation defensively of the three, although he isn't known as a defensive liability -- just an average defender.

I think my preference goes Butler, Hayward, the Middleton if they cost the same to acquire, although I do love Middleton's contract.  But I don't like the concept of trading much in the way of our current roster for any of them.  We currently have just 6 players who were rotation players all season (when healthy) under contract: IT, Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, and Amir.  (Jerebko was and out of the rotation the first two months, but if you want to count him, you can.) A talent upgrade would be nice, but if we trade Bradley, for example, for any of the above, we might see a lot of minutes go to Hunter and/or Young if Turner leaves.  The minutes are available to just add one of these three players to our rotation without subtracting anyone.  I'd be wary of doing otherwise.

If, of course, we added two major free agents, I would be okay trading Bradley (his salary is the biggest so he's easiest to match incoming players with) to upgrade, because then the available minutes are no longer there.

(P.S. I also expect Hayward to be a Celtic in 2017 if we strike out in free agency this summer.  That might cloud my thinking here, but I do think it's a reason to not trade away multiple draft picks and a rotation player or two for any of the above.)

[TheTruthFot18]

How about MKG? His value is low right now maybe Danny can offer Jordan some lowball deal. Young and Hunter for Kidd-Gilchrist.

He was just signed to a 4 year deal. Around 14-15mil I believe.

Either way, him and Walker are the core of that team.

[loco_91]

It should be noted that both Butler and Hayward have trade kickers.  Butler's contract will count between $18.4 and $20.7 million against the cap over the next 3 years, and Hayward would count $18.6 million this year.

Middleton's game took a nice step forward this year.  The Bucks PG situation was not good, which in part caused the percentage of Middleton's assisted baskets to drop from near 60% to 41.5%.  At the same time, he didn't suffer any significant loss in efficiency (TS% went from .563 to .560.). Furthermore, his own assist rate went up 50%.  He's really become a much better shot creator, for both himself and others.  Butler, took a similar step forward, and was a little more efficient with his shooting.  I'd call Middleton "Butler-lite."

I'm not sure Hayward has ever actually been able to play with a real PG.  The last two years he's had only about 30% of his shots assisted, while leading his team in assists last year.  Despite this, he's had virtually the same TS numbers as Middleton, and isn't far off Butler.  Hayward's game has really been a more efficient DeMar DeRozan than it has been like Butler's or Middleton's.  Offensively, I like Hayward the best, and I really think his game could benefit from playing along IT, and I think our offense could benefit from having someone who's been proven comfortable at creating his own opportunities.  That said, he has the worst reputation defensively of the three, although he isn't known as a defensive liability -- just an average defender.

I think my preference goes Butler, Hayward, the Middleton if they cost the same to acquire, although I do love Middleton's contract.  But I don't like the concept of trading much in the way of our current roster for any of them.  We currently have just 6 players who were rotation players all season (when healthy) under contract: IT, Bradley, Crowder, Olynyk, Smart, and Amir.  (Jerebko was and out of the rotation the first two months, but if you want to count him, you can.) A talent upgrade would be nice, but if we trade Bradley, for example, for any of the above, we might see a lot of minutes go to Hunter and/or Young if Turner leaves.  The minutes are available to just add one of these three players to our rotation without subtracting anyone.  I'd be wary of doing otherwise.

If, of course, we added two major free agents, I would be okay trading Bradley (his salary is the biggest so he's easiest to match incoming players with) to upgrade, because then the available minutes are no longer there.

(P.S. I also expect Hayward to be a Celtic in 2017 if we strike out in free agency this summer.  That might cloud my thinking here, but I do think it's a reason to not trade away multiple draft picks and a rotation player or two for any of the above.)

Good post, TP

[alldaboston]

I did not know Middleton averaged 18 ppg. That's fantastic! I'd certainly be down to trade for him.

[jay]

I brought up going after Middleton and Favors in another thread this week.  My idea was:

#3 plus Olykyk + James Young+ Jerebko for Favors

Amir + Rozier + pick(s) for Middleton



Another thought would be, if that was a slight overpayment to Utah, would be to try and get the #12 pick from them while giving them the #16 or the #23 in addition to the package above. That would make available better picks to offer for Middleton.

Or you could make the trade Amir, Rozier, #3 and #23 all for Middleton and the #10.  Then take the #10 and #16 and add them to a package for a big. Middleton may not be on the block, but at some point almost everyone is avaiable at the right price. 

[Ilikesports17]

Any deal to get Middleton, or Hayward for that matter, is going to require an overpay. These guys, as far as I can tell, are not on the block. Middleton may be best suited to play the Small Forward, so that might make Milwaukee inclined to trade him, but he is their only form of floor spacing and everything Ive seen indicates that they love him. Why would they even consider trading him, unless they feel they clearly win the deal?

As for Hayward, the problem, if you want to say that Utah has one, is that Favors and Gobert dont fit together particularly well and their young ball handlers have had trouble staying healthy.

Hayward is far from part of this problem. I suppose Utah could be interested in Dunn at 3, but I think youd have to give up 3 + something substantial to get Hayward and Im not sure hes that good of a player.

[jpotter33]

One thing that should also be noted here: fair or not, Butler has the "star power/quality" to draw other free agents that the other two really don't. He's a two-time All-Star where neither of the other two have ever made an All-Star game, I believe.

So I still take Butler first, though Middleton would be a close second. Do you think a Middleton for Bradley + 16 swap would work? That'd give us a lot of extra size in the backcourt, extra ball-handling and passing, and even a bit better shooting. I still think upgrading our frontcourt should be priority number one, though.

[ahonui06]

I'll take Gordon Hayward because he isn't as injury prone as Butler

[ThePaintedArea]

Curious what you guys think of alternatives like Gordon Hayward and Khris Middleton.  What do you think they'd cost?

It's unlikely that they'd make either of those men available - for basketball reasons, and always bearing in mind that "no one is untradeable".  But sometimes someone is dissatisfied for non-basketball reasons.

Bottom line:  the price is not likely to be enticing for the Celtics.  Next summer Milwaukee might be looking to do a major overhaul; but they need to play through the season first.

Ultimately, we're looking for a guy who can shoot and defend.  We have solid ballhandlers at the guard positions and I don't necessarily care a lot about rebounding at that position... so I'm not putting a huge priority on assists and rebounds.  We need someone who can knock down shots and play solid defense.

Good thing the Celtics are the only team that's looking for a guy who can shoot and defend!

Is it crazy that I'd be most excited about adding Middleton? 

No, not crazy.  In fact, he'd be quite a prize.  He's that peculiar hybrid - a complementary star.  It's hard to think of a team in the league that he wouldn't step into and immediately upgrade - on both sides of the ball.  I think that he'd thrive on the Celtics. 

Question is: is that what you need.  I've heard Ainge this year say that they needed a closer, and more recently that they needed a rim protector (how about being FIRST in defense... think 1986! ).  He pointed out in the latter interview that you can't just get a guy who blocks shots - he might hurt you in other ways. 

(Middleton and Hayward aren't going anywhere.)

And a shot creator off the dribble?  Butler's great ability is creating a lot of shots efficiently.  He is low turnover, despite his relentlessness and heavy drawing of fouls.  He makes good decisions and gets shots - at a high rate - for his teammates; spread the floor around him, and he makes the threes more open for his teammates... more made threes is good.

He gets you in the penalty quicker - he'd help Isaiah scoring at the line.  He's an A-plus free throw shooter.

He's a bulldog on defense, can switch to 3 and 4. 

At 2, he has a size advantage for driving and getting in the paint.  And he gets to the rim and converts.

Hopefully this season he learned something about his leadership; there was turmoil aplenty.  I think he'd be fine in Boston, where management, ownership, coaches, and players are aligned and where there's already a lot of leadership.

He's the youngest of the three, has the best contract, has the most size, appears to be the best shooter, and is a pretty solid defender.   Also, considering that the Bucks already have Giannis and Jabari (who was breaking out last season as well), they don't necessarily need Middleton. 

I don't get your reasoning on that last point... How many games did they win?!  No, they need all the help they can get, and Middleton is one of their key guys.

  The rumored price for Butler seems to be Avery Bradley + #3 + #16 + Rozier.  Could you get Middleton for less?

Yes, rumored.  Made up by fans - it's nonsense.