Would MIN accept Marcus Smart for the #5 pick?

[merkins]

I'm really not interested in getting into another thread about prospect comparisons. What I'd like to know from fellow bloggers is whether it's reasonable to think Tom Thibadeau would be willing to trade the #5 pick for Marcus Smart, if Ainge were indeed interested.

Personally, I think it's a little too much to hope for. But considering the extreme youth of their roster, Thibs' total impatience with rebuilding / losing, and his love of hard headed defenders, I see it as a legit question....

Coach Thibs would do this deal in a heart beat. It's an awful shortsighted impatient out-of-character deal for the Celtics. That is why the deal would never ever ever happen. You are severely underrating and undervaluing Marcus Smart.

Mk

Sorry, but this is a homer post. The 5th pick in the NBA draft is a valuable asset. It's not some kind of insult to question whether Smart -- who is a good player, but certainly not a star player -- could fetch such an asset.

This seems like a terrible idea.  Why hit the reset button on a key contributor to your team NOW for a 48 win team trying to win, not rebuild.  Not sure anyone in this draft outside the top two are significantly more likely to be an upgrade over Smart.  Would be just like the Cs to give up early on a promising young guard though.  Thankfully those Decision makers are no longer with the organization.

[indeedproceed]

They need someone who can shoot and defend from either guard spot in Min. Smart is only half that equation, and with Thibs calling the shots, Ricky Rubio should be just fine defensively for them.

[ssspence]

They need someone who can shoot and defend from either guard spot in Min. Smart is only half that equation, and with Thibs calling the shots, Ricky Rubio should be just fine defensively for them.

But hey... Marcus' shooting is improooooving...

[wiley]

If the Detroit Piston bad bays were thrashing this Cleveland team now Smart's value would be higher on the blog.  As it is, two of the greatest shooters ever are on display, so people are giving him crap.
I hope no one thinks the sharpshooters Hield and Murray are going to come in and do for Boston what Steph and Klay do for Golden State.  They aren't.  And I'm a big fan of both of those guys.  Thibs would jump at a chance for a guy who both can switch onto Millsap and also make life heck for Westbrook and other Western guard studs. 

There's a reason the Celtics beat the Warriors at home.  It's called elite defense on the wing...not good defense.  Elite.

[mkogav]

I'm really not interested in getting into another thread about prospect comparisons. What I'd like to know from fellow bloggers is whether it's reasonable to think Tom Thibadeau would be willing to trade the #5 pick for Marcus Smart, if Ainge were indeed interested.

Personally, I think it's a little too much to hope for. But considering the extreme youth of their roster, Thibs' total impatience with rebuilding / losing, and his love of hard headed defenders, I see it as a legit question....

Coach Thibs would do this deal in a heart beat. It's an awful shortsighted impatient out-of-character deal for the Celtics. That is why the deal would never ever ever happen. You are severely underrating and undervaluing Marcus Smart.

Mk

Sorry, but this is a homer post.

Call it what u will.

The 5th pick in the NBA draft is a valuable asset.

Yes and no.

Yes, it's a valuable pick in any draft.

No, it's not as valuable as the 5th pick in other drafts, e.g. 2015, 2014, and 2012.

It's not some kind of insult to question whether Smart -- who is a good player, but certainly not a star player  -- could fetch such an asset.

Our disconnect has three parts.

1. Value the 2016 draft class.

The 2016 draft class is a weak draft compared to most, especially 3-10/12. It has been compared to the 2013, which outside of the top 2 picks, I believe is accurate. Of the 5 best players from the 2013 draft, 4 of the 5 were in double digitsl; Giannis (15), Gobert (27), Victor Oladipo (2), Adams (12), and C.J. McCollum (10).

From many sources, outside of the top two players, there's not much difference between players ranked 3-10 and players in the mid-teen and 20s. I believe this is why players like Marquese Chriss are jump 10+ spots in mock drafts.


2. The view and value of Marcus Smart.

You view Smart as a good player, but certainly not a star player.

I view Smart as a young WIP with an extremely high ceiling.

Smart took a huge hits this season from his very poor shooting, negative media attention (Here's to you Bob Ryan!), egregious flopping, and his awful hair - which makes him resemble a mini-Sully who is one of the least liked Celtics in a long time.

The truth is that Marcus is 22 y/o second year player who is the same age as some of the higher ranked rookies in the draft, is an exceptional defensive presence, and has been playing out of position since the day IT was acquired.

Marcus has been a PG most of this life. He is use to having the ball in his hands. The Celtics have him playing SG and SF on occasion, in which his responsibilities are completely different. Had Marcus been playing PG for 27 minutes per night instead of wing, his growth and shooting progress would likely be much better.

Many Celtics fan would be happy to trade #3 and Smart for a guy like Butler. This would be so short sighted given the facts that Smart will be entering his 3d year at 22 y/o which is the same age that Jimmy Butler was as a rookie... ....who also shot very poorly early in career.

Marcus Smart's shot will start to fall. Once it does his game will blossom and you will be happy the Cs didn't trade him.

How do I know his shot will start falling? He shot 34.8% last season Mk, you $%$#%$#?!?!?!

The key is that his FT% improved substantially, from 64.6%-> 77.7%. This shows two things. The first is that he is working hard on this shooting. The second is that he has a good stroke, mechanics of his FTs, and touch on his shot. His jump shot will also improve once his jump shot mechanics, shot selection, and confidence does. This is part of the NBA learning curve, which some players never get past.

Rondo never improved his FT%. Not surprisingly, neither did his FG% or 3P%. Tony Parker was a poor FT and 3pt shooter coming into the league. He was a good mid-range shooter. As his FT% improved, so did his 3P%.


3. Value of high draft picks.

What is the hit rate of the top half of the lottery, 50% at best? How many make the All Star game, 10%?  I know what Marcus Smart is, his flaws and his ceiling. He's a 100% guarantee, where as the #5 pick in this draft is not.

The only way that I can see trading a player like Marcus Smart after two seasons for the #5 pick would be for a player that will be available at #5 and has a substantially higher ceiling. The last 6 number #5 selections were, Super Mario, Dante Exum, Alex Len, TRob, JV, and DeMarcus Cousins.

There is no DeMarcus Cousins available at #5 in this draft. In fact, the only player who projects to have a higher ceiling than Smart is Simmons.

Mk

[mkogav]

They need someone who can shoot and defend from either guard spot in Min. Smart is only half that equation, and with Thibs calling the shots, Ricky Rubio should be just fine defensively for them.

I agree that Rubio is a player that Thibs should like. Rubio a big PG who is a plus defender. With TT history of developing young talent, I can see Rubio blossoming. The only rub here is that Rubio has wanted out of MIN for a while. It may not be salvageable.

Mk

[wiley]

They need someone who can shoot and defend from either guard spot in Min. Smart is only half that equation, and with Thibs calling the shots, Ricky Rubio should be just fine defensively for them.

I agree that Rubio is a player that Thibs should like. Rubio a big PG who is a plus defender. With TT history of developing young talent, I can see Rubio blossoming. The only rub here is that Rubio has wanted out of MIN for a while. It may not be salvageable.

Mk

Agree Rubio is a plus defender and dynamic passer.  But his defense and general ability to disrupt the other team is not on the same playing field as Smart, which is no shame.   The should be able to trade him for something decent.  Maybe he's the guy who should be the 1 in Ok. City with Westbrook at the 2.  Too bad Westbrook wouldn't have it. 

Rubio destinations:  NO?  Knicks?  Nets?  Utah? 

[RebusRankin]

I think Minnesota wants a shooter ala Murray or Hield to complement Towns, Wiggins and Lavine.

[Bucketgetter]

I guess you guys haven't watched the wolves much because Smart is about as bad as a fit as you can get for that team. Their number one problem is shooting, and you propose to take their best spot up shooter, Lavine, out of the lineup for a bricklayer named Smart? Yes they had defensive woes last year, but that's what bringing in Thibs is for. You don't bring in a defensive mastermind just to go and get great defensive players, you bring him in to improve your defense and make bad defensive players better. If I coached a team of Rubio/Smart/Wiggins/Dieng/KAT, I would have them in the top 10 of defense.
So there is no way the wolves would do this deal, as they would need the shooting of Murray/Bender/Hield/Chriss much more than they would need the defense of Smart.

Who said anything about replacing Levine? Why wouldn't the two pair up in the Wolves backcourt?

Because Rubio is a better player than both of them. If you wanted to just bench Rubio, the wolves would just take Dunn. This trade just doesn't make sense for them.

Excellent chance Dunn is gone at 5. And if you gave 29 NBA GMs a trade exception big enough for either right now and asked them to choose, I'd wager all but one or two of them would take Levine over Rubio. So I doubt your judgement on this topic.

So many things wrong with this post, so I'll briefly go over over all of your misconceptions. First off, LAVINE. His name is ZACH LAVINE, not LEVINE. If you are going to argue over a player, know how to spell his name correctly. You clearly don't watch timberwolves basketball (I do, I live in Minnesota, so don't doubt my judgement on this topic thanks) and if you did, you would know Lavine is a shooting guard, not a point guard. Not only are the wolves significantly better with Rubio at point than Lavine, but when Lavine tries to play point guard his advanced stats are among the worst in the league. Rubio is a WAY better passer, defender, dribbler, and rebounder than Lavine, all pretty important things for a point guard. So if you want to talk more about this topic, go back and watch some film to better educate yourself. Otherwise, don't get in arguments that you know nothing about and just stick to something you know a little information on. Thanks!

[alldaboston]

I guess you guys haven't watched the wolves much because Smart is about as bad as a fit as you can get for that team. Their number one problem is shooting, and you propose to take their best spot up shooter, Lavine, out of the lineup for a bricklayer named Smart? Yes they had defensive woes last year, but that's what bringing in Thibs is for. You don't bring in a defensive mastermind just to go and get great defensive players, you bring him in to improve your defense and make bad defensive players better. If I coached a team of Rubio/Smart/Wiggins/Dieng/KAT, I would have them in the top 10 of defense.
So there is no way the wolves would do this deal, as they would need the shooting of Murray/Bender/Hield/Chriss much more than they would need the defense of Smart.

Who said anything about replacing Levine? Why wouldn't the two pair up in the Wolves backcourt?

Because Rubio is a better player than both of them. If you wanted to just bench Rubio, the wolves would just take Dunn. This trade just doesn't make sense for them.

Excellent chance Dunn is gone at 5. And if you gave 29 NBA GMs a trade exception big enough for either right now and asked them to choose, I'd wager all but one or two of them would take Levine over Rubio. So I doubt your judgement on this topic.

So many things wrong with this post, so I'll briefly go over over all of your misconceptions. First off, LAVINE. His name is ZACH LAVINE, not LEVINE. If you are going to argue over a player, know how to spell his name correctly. You clearly don't watch timberwolves basketball (I do, I live in Minnesota, so don't doubt my judgement on this topic thanks) and if you did, you would know Lavine is a shooting guard, not a point guard. Not only are the wolves significantly better with Rubio at point than Lavine, but when Lavine tries to play point guard his advanced stats are among the worst in the league. Rubio is a WAY better passer, defender, dribbler, and rebounder than Lavine, all pretty important things for a point guard. So if you want to talk more about this topic, go back and watch some film to better educate yourself. Otherwise, don't get in arguments that you know nothing about and just stick to something you know a little information on. Thanks!

You proved your point well here, so I commend you. But you didn't have to be so harsh, especially towards the end.

[Bucketgetter]

They need someone who can shoot and defend from either guard spot in Min. Smart is only half that equation, and with Thibs calling the shots, Ricky Rubio should be just fine defensively for them.

I agree that Rubio is a player that Thibs should like. Rubio a big PG who is a plus defender. With TT history of developing young talent, I can see Rubio blossoming. The only rub here is that Rubio has wanted out of MIN for a while. It may not be salvageable.

Mk

No, he hasn't. He has voiced his frustrations over the lack of winning, but all he wants to do is make the playoffs. He actually just said that if the wolves don't make the playoffs again this year, then he'll think about leaving. But never has he requested a trade, and he was actually mad last year when his name came up in trade rumors.

[ssspence]

I guess you guys haven't watched the wolves much because Smart is about as bad as a fit as you can get for that team. Their number one problem is shooting, and you propose to take their best spot up shooter, Lavine, out of the lineup for a bricklayer named Smart? Yes they had defensive woes last year, but that's what bringing in Thibs is for. You don't bring in a defensive mastermind just to go and get great defensive players, you bring him in to improve your defense and make bad defensive players better. If I coached a team of Rubio/Smart/Wiggins/Dieng/KAT, I would have them in the top 10 of defense.
So there is no way the wolves would do this deal, as they would need the shooting of Murray/Bender/Hield/Chriss much more than they would need the defense of Smart.

Who said anything about replacing Levine? Why wouldn't the two pair up in the Wolves backcourt?

Because Rubio is a better player than both of them. If you wanted to just bench Rubio, the wolves would just take Dunn. This trade just doesn't make sense for them.

Excellent chance Dunn is gone at 5. And if you gave 29 NBA GMs a trade exception big enough for either right now and asked them to choose, I'd wager all but one or two of them would take Levine over Rubio. So I doubt your judgement on this topic.

So many things wrong with this post, so I'll briefly go over over all of your misconceptions. First off, LAVINE. His name is ZACH LAVINE, not LEVINE. If you are going to argue over a player, know how to spell his name correctly. You clearly don't watch timberwolves basketball (I do, I live in Minnesota, so don't doubt my judgement on this topic thanks) and if you did, you would know Lavine is a shooting guard, not a point guard. Not only are the wolves significantly better with Rubio at point than Lavine, but when Lavine tries to play point guard his advanced stats are among the worst in the league. Rubio is a WAY better passer, defender, dribbler, and rebounder than Lavine, all pretty important things for a point guard. So if you want to talk more about this topic, go back and watch some film to better educate yourself. Otherwise, don't get in arguments that you know nothing about and just stick to something you know a little information on. Thanks!

So many things are wrong with my two sentence post? The part about Dunn is wrong? No, it's not. Or the part about which existing Wolves guard GMs would prefer? No, it's not. So you're just grabbing onto the spelling thing because you live in Minnesota 

Who needs to play Levine at PG? He's a guard. If you want to call him a SG, that's fine, but he's not a spot up player. He's a penetrator. He's a ball dominant player.

That said, the point is that he and Rubio are a pretty poor fit together. Rubio, too, needs the ball in his hand a great deal to drive value. If he's not driving and kicking, he's highly limited due to being one of the worst shooters in the history of the NBA.

If you believe that Smart's offensive future as a spot-up shooter (which I do, since it's the lesser of evils for him), then there's a legitimate argument for paring him with Levine over Rubio. He can play "point guard" while the offense runs through Zach, spotting up outside the line as he likes to do. Then take defensive pressure off of him guarding whoever of PG or SG is the toughest assignment. Rubio's a solid defender, but Smart's a better, more tenacious one -- very much in the Thibs mold.

If you live in Minnesota, and you're the celticsblog.com maestro of Wolves basketball, you're aware of these things correct? I mean, do you actually buy for a second that the Wolves consider Ricky a more important long term asset than Zach, and would prefer to form their backcourt as such? But hey, I have no idea what I'm talking about, so I defer to you. I mean, hey.... you live in Minnesota and all.

By the way, since you're new here... a tip for you. Telling people to stop posting because they don't know what they're talking about is sort of like being the hamster running on the wheel. You can do it as hard or fast as you like, and you'll never get anywhere.   

[TheSundanceKid]

Getting away from the spelling of names and back to the topic..

I've assumed that Smart is better than anyone who would be available at 5, but let's pretend it's even for a second. At that point you'll have at least one of Dunn, Hield and Murray. Dunn would be a good fit alongside Lavine. Hield alongside Rubio, Murray alongside both. All with more years of control than Smart. So IF you believe that the trade is of fair value for both sides, from a fit perspective what makes them want to trade for Smart?

[86MaxwellSmart]

There is NO reason for the Celtics to pursue this type of trade....we already have Enough draft picks....Trade Smart in a package for Butler/George/Cousins...YES....but for Another draft pick?....nope.

[showtime]

I like it, but Sota wouldn't do it.