Rumor - Nerlens Noel-Jeff Teague trade being talked about

[PhoSita]

Lol Colangelo

[GratefulCs]

Here's a link:

http://www.peachtreehoops.com/2016/6/2/11847302/atlanta-hawks-trade-rumor-jeff-teague-nerlens-noel-philadelphia-76ers

Atlanta and Philadelphia are discussing a deal centered on a Jeff Teague and Nerlens Noel package, league sources tell The Vertical.

Sounds like there would be more moving parts to this. PHI trading Noel for a PG on an expiring contract seems like a pretty light return.

Noel will command big money next season as this is the final year on his rookie contract, so it's a moot point.

Trading a guy who was supposed to be a foundational piece of the inevitable Philly dynasty for a 27-year-old PG who's career highs are 16.5 points and 7.2 assists and has only one more year on his deal is pretty much what Hinkie fans have been dreading.

Teague would certainly make Philly a lot better next season, but "a lot better" might mean 22 wins.

Mike

If Teague is engaged and likes Philly, it would be a fine trade for them.  That team needs a veteran PG who can actually play.  If Philly wants to start getting free agents soon, they need someone like Teague there to sell other players on the situation. Right now anyone who goes to Philly would do it only for the money.  And if a player is only in it for the money, you're probably not going to get what you paid for.

Lol... the reaction to this rumor is predictably comical.  We were under the impression that Marcus Smart, a guy who averages like 8 points, 3 rebounds and 3 steals with 34%/26%/60% shooting was the max trade value for Noel.   The way some painted the picture of Noel's trade value, they'd be lucky to get Terry Rozier or the #16 pick for him.

Funny that the rumor says they might get Teague and the reaction is that it's a bad trade for Philly.  Like, really really funny.   

Teague is in his prime, was the starting PG for a 60 win Hawks team, was the starting PG for a team that made quick work of the Celtics in the first round... and while he averaged a mere 28.5 minutes sharing minutes with Shroeder, he put up per-36 numbers of 20 points, 7.5 assists, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 steals with 45%/40%/84% shooting. 

If that's what Noel gets them, considering that they traded oft-injured 1-time all-star Jrue Holiday to land Noel + Saric... that's a decent move for a Philly team that has succeeded in tanking and is now ready to start putting together a ball club. 

If they trade Noel for Teague, then trade Okafor an equally quality SG or SF (someone like Jimmy Butler), Philly could actually start to become attractive to free agents.

i mean, that's not crazy good trade value (with regards to noel)

Teague is really good, but he put up 16 and 6 in a really good system with good shooters around him

Maybe he'll score more with philly

And he could easily walk. It's not like he's locked up for 3 years

If he walks, it's a terrible trade for them

If not, it's a solid move in the right direction

But I mean this has literally been my point all along.  You take prospects like Noel and Okafor, because they are the best players available at the time and eventually when you're ready to build a team, you can trade them for positions of need.  Big men prospects remain valuable.  Why not stock them up and move them when you're ready for competent players who can fit in right away and help you win.   That's literally been what I've been arguing for the past two years. 

You have fans saying "Let's offer them #16 + #23 for Noel... it's the best they can do!" and it's never made sense to me.

You have fans arguing that Philly's situation is a "failure", because they are stuck with bigs... meanwhile, I consistently point out that Philly is in that situation by design and could have flipped one of those bigs for a competent guard at ANY TIME to improve their rotation balance.  Why do that, though if the goal was to bottom out? They succeeded in bottoming out, landed the #1 pick for their troubles, and now predictably you are hearing about them looking to trade one of the bigs for established talent.

I mean... I've literally even name-dropped Jeff Teague multiple times in trying to explain my point. 
March 2015:

I was just giggling at how funny it would be if the Celtics had drafted a star big man prospect like Embiid or Noel and then traded one of them away for the #11 and #26 picks.  I imagine we'd riot.

If I'm Philly, I take best player available, even if it's Okafor, and then have them split the 96 minutes at the PF/C roles (32 minutes per night each).   Let it play out for a season.  If all three end up as good as expected, they'll have infinite options.  Instead of giving up a can't-miss superstar prospect for a crapshoot #7-11 pick, they can just trade one of those guys for an all-star at a position of need.  That makes WAAAY more sense.  Elite big men are the most valuable assets in the league.  If they decide to move one of those guys, they'll basically have their choice of whatever they want.  Want a Jeff Teague or something? Done.   Want a DeMar Derozan?  Done.  Everyone in the league will line up to trade for the "expendable" 19-21 year old superstar big man prospect and if Boston is offering #11 + #26, they are gonna be way off in the back of the line.

January 2016:

But honestly, if I were Hinkie or Colangelo, I'd look outside Boston for options.  Danny Ainge is too shrewd.  He's not going to make a deal that isn't a landslide victory for him.  I wouldn't even bother dealing with Boston.

Instead, I'd look to other rebuilding teams that might want to drop a quality vet... someone a bit more polished and a safer bet than Marcus Smart.   If Atlanta fears losing Horford and moves him before the deadline, wouldn't they be a great landing spot for Noel?... at the price of Teague or Shroeder + additional value?

Also, there's been rumors of them targeting Teague or Schroeder for months.  I pointed it out a few months ago, but reiterated that it made no sense for Philly to do while they were in the midst of tanking.  Why hurt their tank job when the primary goal was landing the #1 pick?  Made WAAAY more sense to just finish out the season and then address needs.

Feb 2016:

The timing was mostly just to build the perception that they had changed course.  I guess trading for Ish Smith and signing Elton Brand were nice stop-gap moves, but they know that finishing with the worst record this season is their best move.

Fwiw, I've heard that they have inquired about trading for Teague or Schroeder.

But yeah... pretty funny that the Colangelo hire was met with such hyperbolic "the league is stepping in!!... the tank is over!!" reactionary posts.  As expected, they are sticking to the same plan.

So let's see if it finally happens.  No doubt about it - trading for Jeff Teague would be a major help towards helping Philly's roster balance.   I'm curious if it goes down will Philly be the one to include extra assets?   That'll be interesting to see.   We can only really guess as to what Philly's asking price is for these guys.  But if Colangelo is targeting Teague-types, it seems to back up the idea that they are looking for established talent.  That might throw ice on our hope of stealing Okafor for the #3 pick.  They'd likely be looking at trying to get another quality established player.

i definitely don't disagree with their philosophy

I think hinkie did a spectacular job while he was there. He should get all the credit for anything philly does in the next five+ years.

I do agree that people were underrating what it would take to pry one of their big men away.

I just think i would look for someone with a longer contract (teague) if i were them


Either way, philly is in great shape no matter what people say

[Evantime34]

I like this for both teams. The Hawks were ready to move on from Teague and they get an athletic rim protector in case Horford leaves. The Sixers get an enormous upgrade at point guard.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Sixers moved both Noel and Okafor.

[nickagneta]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

[PhoSita]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

On an expiring deal. One season of a former All Star. What a return!

If this rumor is real, the Sixers are in trouble. Within two seasons Colangelo will have them right back where they were before Hinkie.

[loco_91]

Lol Colangelo

Let's trade our best healthy player for a one-year rental on the league's 15th best PG! What could possibly go wrong?

[Lucky17]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

On an expiring deal. One season of a former All Star. What a return!

If this rumor is real, the Sixers are in trouble. Within two seasons Colangelo will have them right back where they were before Hinkie.

Well, the rumor does include words like "centered on" and "package," so it seems like there are some other moving parts involved.

Who knows? Maybe PHI is getting a 1st from ATL as well.

[Eddie20]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

He went on and on about how Noel was such a blue chip talent and how he would fetch so much in a trade. LB, do you realize they just dealt that "stud" for what very could be a rental and that rental is probably somewhere in the mid-teens in terms of PG rankings?

[saltlover]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

On an expiring deal. One season of a former All Star. What a return!

If this rumor is real, the Sixers are in trouble. Within two seasons Colangelo will have them right back where they were before Hinkie.

Well, the rumor does include words like "centered on" and "package," so it seems like there are some other moving parts involved.

Who knows? Maybe PHI is getting a 1st from ATL as well.

I'd bet the first goes the other direction.

[Lucky17]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

On an expiring deal. One season of a former All Star. What a return!

If this rumor is real, the Sixers are in trouble. Within two seasons Colangelo will have them right back where they were before Hinkie.

Well, the rumor does include words like "centered on" and "package," so it seems like there are some other moving parts involved.

Who knows? Maybe PHI is getting a 1st from ATL as well.

I'd bet the first goes the other direction.

Wow, that would be brutal.

[mctyson]

LarBrd - you are digging your own grave now.  There is no way Jeff Teague is staying in Philly beyond 1 year.  They are going to be crap again next year.  This rumor is not confirming anything except that Noel is simply not worth much on the trade market.

[LarBrd33]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

?

I said that NBA players tend to make their most dramatic improvements statistically before the age of 23.   Obviously it's well known their "prime" is 27 years old. 

You're talking about two different things.   You see guys like LeBron, Durant, etc make leaps before the age 23.  It's rare to see them make leaps after 23.   They still, obviously, improve throughout their 20s:  http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

[LarBrd33]

LarBrd - you are digging your own grave now.  There is no way Jeff Teague is staying in Philly beyond 1 year.

That's a really weird assumption based on a rumored trade that hasn't even happened yet - without any context to what additional moves the team would make.  We don't know what Philly will look like this season.  To assume he's bailing, because they are going to be a 10 win team again is kind of dumb.  And to assume Philly is unaware of that risk if they are discussing the trade - is also kind of dumb.

It's also really dumb to assume Philly would give up Noel + additional 1sts for a 1 year rental of Teague. 

So instead of making illogical assumptions, i'll look at this from a perspective that Colangelo isn't a pants-on-head stupid and if he moves Noel for Teague, it's with the intention of improving the roster balance beyond a single season.

[Eddie20]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

?

I said that NBA players tend to make their most dramatic improvements statistically before the age of 23.   Obviously it's well known their "prime" is 27 years old. 

You're talking about two different things.   You see guys like LeBron, Durant, etc make leaps before the age 23.  It's rare to see them make leaps after 23.   They still, obviously, improve throughout their 20s:  http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Fair to say you overvalued those assets? If Noel gets traded for mid-teens ranked PG on an expiring deal, just imagine what the going rate for Isaiah is? Not only did he make the all-star team THIS season, but he has a ridiculous team friendly deal.

[LarBrd33]

I thought LB's definition of in their prime was a player between 23 and 25? Now a 27 year old Teague is in his prime. Interesting

?

I said that NBA players tend to make their most dramatic improvements statistically before the age of 23.   Obviously it's well known their "prime" is 27 years old. 

You're talking about two different things.   You see guys like LeBron, Durant, etc make leaps before the age 23.  It's rare to see them make leaps after 23.   They still, obviously, improve throughout their 20s:  http://wagesofwins.com/nba-players-age-like-milk/

Fair to say you overvalued those assets?

When?  When I suggested they could trade Noel for Teague months ago?  Seems like I properly valued those assets based on this rumor.

Fair to say you undervalued those assets when you suggested it's impossible for Philly to improve their roster balance by trading guys like Noel?  So far, yes.


Wonderful point about Isaiah, though.  Contract aside (which I'm sure would be addressed), Teague and Thomas are both 1-time all-stars in their 20s.   Not bad return for a guy a lot of folks here thought was worth a late 1st.