Author Topic: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades  (Read 8164 times)

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Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« on: May 29, 2016, 09:11:32 PM »

Offline Granath

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Celticsblog, it's time to get over the obsession with semi-failed Philly big man draft picks. Almost every proposed trade on this forum involves the #3 pick for some Philadelphia big man that they've drafted over the last 3 seasons. Almost every proposed trade is an absolutely boneheaded idea. Here's why.

First of all, I'd encourage folks to read my post here about misconceptions about the #3 pick: http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=84600.0. But to be specific, the #3 pick is worth far more than most people believe. This draft isn't exceptional but by no means does it appear to be weak. It appears to be a typical draft class. Here's the last of the last 11 #3 picks with enough time gone by to start to judge their careers:

Otto Porter
Beal
Kanter
Favors
Harden
OJ Mayo
Hortford
Morrison
Deron Williams
Ben Gordon
'Melo

Since this is only #3, I didn't include superstars like Cousins, Curry, Paul, Wade and Westbrook - all of whom were selected between #4 and #7. I like those odds.

Bust: 1 (Morrison)
Role Player: 2 (Porter, Mayo)
Above-Average: 3 (Kanter, Beal, Favors)
All-Stars: 3 (Hortford, Williams, Gordon)
Superstars: 2 (Melo, Harden)

Not all of those drafts were considered stacked. In fact, most of them were seen like this one - average with one or two clear-cut guys at the top. Yet the #3 pick turned out almost half the time to be an All-Star - and it's quite possible Favors, Kanter and/or Beal end up making an All Star game. By the way, this 11 year span isn't an aberration. Since 1980 the #3 pick has a 49% chance of being an All-Star!

Simply put, historically the pick is worth a lot. Now to consider moving it for any of the Philly bigs, the first assumption you have to make is that the pick isn't that valuable and that any player you draft isn't going to be anything special. Now it's quite possible to make that assumption but anyone who does has to realize that they are making an assumption that bucks a long-standing historical trend. It's not rational or reasonable to try to write off the All-Stars as being drafted in stacked draft classes since 50% of the drafts can't be stacked!

In addition, here are some trades for the #3 overall pick in recent memory:

#3 for #6, #27 and a future 1st.
#3 for Shareef Abdur-Rahim (who was 25, putting up 20/9 and had win shares of around 8 for the past 4 seasons)
#3 for #5 plus Mike Miller (16ppg that year)

All 3 of these trades show that the #3 pick has quite a high worth. We're not talking role-player territory here folks. We're talking about a fair chance at a very valuable contributor.

Ok, so let's turn to the Philly bigs. All of them have potential of course. Otherwise they wouldn't be drafted where they were. But if the Cs use the #3 to acquire any of these guys it's quite likely it's going to look like a repeat of the Jrue Holiday trade. How did that work out for the Pelicans? Why do I think this? Let's look at the 3 contestants:

Stooge #1 - Nerlens Noel

Noel is a 22 year old defensive stalwart with a very limited offensive game. Picked 6th overall 3 years ago, he only has 1 year left on his rookie contract before he's a RFA. Noel has been solid and steady but has shown little growth in his game, averaging 11 points and 8 boards per game. He's a solid young big man but he's neither a superstar nor an All-Star. He's a 3 win share player and that's simply not good enough for the #3 pick. And of the 3 Philly big men, he's the guy I would want the most. He's just not worth a Brooklyn pick. Not when you consider production. Not when you consider contract status. I'd like to see him in green but not for that price.

Stooge #2 - Embiid

People who want to offer the #3 pick for Embiid are clearly out of their minds. All Embiid had entering the NBA was potential but it's important to remember Embiid was NEVER considered a sure-fire superstar when he was picked. There were serious questions about his durability, injury history, his lack of polish (6 fouls per 40 minutes), turnovers, lower body strength, defensive and offensive awareness and even his motivation. His draft position was based on his rare physical gifts and great upside. But he was considered raw, like steak tartare-raw. But because he was so young there was time to work with him and that was considered a mitigating factor. Now here we are two years later. He hasn't played at all. There are still questions about his health. His rookie contract is 1/2 done and he hasn't seen the court. He hasn't played in a competitive game of basketball for over 2 years. Why would anyone think his value has increased?

Some may think pursuing a trade for Embiid is "swinging for the fences". It's more like "Walter Mitty Pipe Dream". There's just no possible way you can consider him for a pick that already has a 50% chance of being an All-Star when there's a fair possibility that Embiid never plays meaningful minutes in the NBA. Is he worth it if there's a good opportunity to get him? Sure. Is he worth #3? Not by a long shot.

Stooge #3 - Oakfor

This one is the most talked about and is the one that should be the most feared. I'd encourage everyone to read this: http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/boston-celtics/celtics-avoid-jahlil-okafor-costs/. Every single advanced metric says that Okafor was absolutely horrible last season. His biggest claim to fame is his offense. Some people want to point to his 17ppg as some sort of barometer that he's a great offensive player. Except Philly was 7.5 points better on offense when he was off the court. Think about that for a second - Okafor's best claim to fame is his offense and yet Philly was clearly better when he was sitting on the bench. That is an incredibly [dang]ing statistic because if Okafor isn't valuable on the offensive end, what good is he? It's quite simple - someone has to put up some statistics for Philly (aka Jrue Holiday) but it's foolish to attribute those to being anything but empty stats. And yet some actually advocate adding more to the trade! Talk about throwing the baby out with the bathwater...

Now that's not to say that Okafor, Embiid or Noel don't somehow blossom later in their careers or in a new environment. But none of the 3 are worth the #3 overall pick. Teams only trade a pick that high for an exceptional young talent or an All-Star and none of these guys fit that role.

Assuming Philly does not trade down, they're going to probably take Simmons. Noel. Embiid, Okafor. Simmons. That's a massive log jam in the front court and they're going to have to move someone. Like Danny and his 8 picks in this years' draft, it's not going to be a fire sale. But it's also clear that none of these guys are so good that Philly has the league over a barrel. No one is giving them a top 3 pick for these guys. Neither should the Celtics. 
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 09:17:15 PM by Granath »
Jaylen Brown will be an All Star in the next 5 years.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2016, 09:21:00 PM »

Offline anewframe

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TP for the work put into this post!

I agree that I would not give up the 3rd pick for any of these players at this time.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #2 on: May 29, 2016, 09:44:46 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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My guess is we trade #3 + a couple additional assets (#16 + #23?) for Okafor, but first want to make sure Simmons or Ingram don't slip to us.  So if we see a deal, it will be on draft night. 

Seems like from your list, what you're trying to say is that we're long due to have another bust at #3.

A lot of people seem to want Buddy Hield, because he's the reigning USBWA College Player of the Year.  In the last 25 years, only one other USBWA College Player of the Year was selected 3rd - Adam Morrison.  Looks like we're due for another clunker.
« Last Edit: May 29, 2016, 09:53:55 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #3 on: May 29, 2016, 10:03:23 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er madness. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #4 on: May 29, 2016, 10:06:13 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er thread. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked
one year of Noel's rookie deal might be one of the key factors that gets them to sell low on him by trading for a guy like Marcus smart.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #5 on: May 29, 2016, 10:07:00 PM »

Offline celticsclay

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er thread. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked
one year of Noel's rookie deal might be one of the key factors that gets them to sell low on him by trading for a guy like Marcus smart.

We're you impressed by his development this last season?

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2016, 10:16:20 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er thread. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked
one year of Noel's rookie deal might be one of the key factors that gets them to sell low on him by trading for a guy like Marcus smart.

We're you impressed by his development this last season?
Marcus Smart's?  No.  Not really.  It was pretty disappointing.   There were some encouraging signs in the playoffs so maybe he gets it together.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2016, 10:18:03 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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My guess is we trade #3 + a couple additional assets (#16 + #23?) for Okafor, but first want to make sure Simmons or Ingram don't slip to us.  So if we see a deal, it will be on draft night. 

Seems like from your list, what you're trying to say is that we're long due to have another bust at #3.

A lot of people seem to want Buddy Hield, because he's the reigning USBWA College Player of the Year.  In the last 25 years, only one other USBWA College Player of the Year was selected 3rd - Adam Morrison.  Looks like we're due for another clunker.

I don't think any of the folks who have advocated for Buddy Hield around here have done so because he was College player of the year.

Also, based on the CB polls that are up and running, Bender seems to be the clear favorite around here.

And, of course, the convoluted logic you use to reach your conclusion that because the last guy who was drafted third and was College Player of the Year was a bust means that the next player who meets both those criteria will be a bust as well is completely flawed and baseless.

I could use similar logic to say that because the last center to be drafted in the top three and be considered a can't-miss prospect who was injury prone-Greg Oden-never recovered and had any kind of NBA career, it follows that Joel Embiid will definitely suffer the same fate.

I won't do that, though, because that would be logically fallacious.

DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #8 on: May 29, 2016, 10:20:57 PM »

Offline footey

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er thread. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked
one year of Noel's rookie deal might be one of the key factors that gets them to sell low on him by trading for a guy like Marcus smart.

LB, you offer more for Okafor than die hard Sixer fans expect to get. Chad Ford said Sixers should grab offer of just the 3 pick, indicating that alone is an overpay. I think you are too focused on his 17 point average as a reason to justify the high price. I think the market has in fact moved a bit away from him. You are trying to price him like a new car rather than one that has already been driven a year whose short comings are more evident.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #9 on: May 29, 2016, 10:21:22 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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My guess is we trade #3 + a couple additional assets (#16 + #23?) for Okafor, but first want to make sure Simmons or Ingram don't slip to us.  So if we see a deal, it will be on draft night. 

Seems like from your list, what you're trying to say is that we're long due to have another bust at #3.

A lot of people seem to want Buddy Hield, because he's the reigning USBWA College Player of the Year.  In the last 25 years, only one other USBWA College Player of the Year was selected 3rd - Adam Morrison.  Looks like we're due for another clunker.

I don't think any of the folks who have advocated for Buddy Hield around here have done so because he was College player of the year.

Also, based on the CB polls that are up and running, Bender seems to be the clear favorite around here.

And, of course, the convoluted logic you use to reach your conclusion that because the last guy who was drafted third and was College Player of the Year was a bust means that the next player who meets both those criteria will be a bust as well is completely flawed and baseless.

I could use similar logic to say that because the last center to be drafted in the top three and be considered a can't-miss prospect who was injury prone-Greg Oden-never recovered and had any kind of NBA career, it follows that Joel Embiid will definitely suffer the same fate.

I won't do that, though, because that would be logically fallacious.
I assume people like bender, because he's seen as being the closest thing we have to "high risk/high reward" at the 3rd pick.  People want to swing for the fences with this pick and the majority of the guys available are believed to not have star potential.   The same reason people are intrigued by bender is the same reason it might make sense for Boston to trade for one or Philly's bigs.  We need to try and land a star with that pick.  Guys like Okafor have shown signs of star potential.  This is why it's widely believed Okafor would go 3rd at worst in this draft (and could even go top 2 according to some).

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #10 on: May 29, 2016, 10:24:03 PM »

Offline Vox_Populi

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I was in Philly to visit family and talked to some fans. I know this is in no way indicative of the whole fan base, but who cares. They told me they'd take picks below 3 for Okafor without question, and if it were between 4 and 6, they'd take it straight up for Jahlil.

What does that say about Okafor? Probably nothing, but random people said it so I'm going to run with it.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #11 on: May 29, 2016, 10:26:06 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Nice to seem a well written thread stopping the 76er thread. The embiid idea in particular does not make much sense. One year of Noel's rookie deal is a factor many also have overlooked
one year of Noel's rookie deal might be one of the key factors that gets them to sell low on him by trading for a guy like Marcus smart.

LB, you offer more for Okafor than die hard Sixer fans expect to get. Chad Ford said Sixers should grab offer of just the 3 pick, indicating that alone is an overpay. I think you are too focused on his 17 point average as a reason to justify the high price. I think the market has in fact moved a bit away from him. You are trying to price him like a new car rather than one that has already been driven a year whose short comings are more evident.
Neither I or sixer fans are sure of what the price for Okafor will be.  We do know that ainge built a package around the Brooklyn pick and offered it for Okafor at the deadline, but philly backed out.  So I guess the question is - has the Brooklyn pick increased or decreased in value now that we know it's 3rd?  On one hand, at the deadline there was still a reasonable chance the pick could end up 1st.  On the other hand, at the deadline there was still a reasonable chance it could have fallen out of the top 5.   So it's hard to say if Phillys interest was based on the potential to land top 2 or not.

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #12 on: May 29, 2016, 10:27:12 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I was in Philly to visit family and talked to some fans. I know this is in no way indicative of the whole fan base, but who cares. They told me they'd take picks below 3 for Okafor without question, and if it were between 4 and 6, they'd take it straight up for Jahlil.

What does that say about Okafor? Probably nothing, but random people said it so I'm going to run with it.
it says about as much as celtic fans saying they'd gladly trade Marcus smart for Nerlens Noel.  Or Suns fans saying they'd gladly trade Brandon knight + #4 together for Okafor.

Our opinions mean very little.  Fun to think about tho. 

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #13 on: May 29, 2016, 10:46:04 PM »

Offline Celtics18

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TP, Granath.  I'm in agreement with your take on the number three pick.

I will add, though, that of the three Philly centers, the one I'd be most willing to take a chance on is Noel.  I just think that his defensive potential could make him worth the risk.

I'm not brave enough to want to take a chance on a guy who hasn't been healthy enough to play a single game in his inaugural two NBA seasons.

As far as Okafor goes, I won't deny his offensive talents, but I just don't trust him to be a player that will be easy to utilize in a way that actually helps a team achieve the objective of winning. 
DKC Seventy-Sixers:

PG: G. Hill/D. Schroder
SG: C. Lee/B. Hield/T. Luwawu
SF:  Giannis/J. Lamb/M. Kuzminskas
PF:  E. Ilyasova/J. Jerebko/R. Christmas
C:    N. Vucevic/K. Olynyk/E. Davis/C. Jefferson

Re: Misconceptions and Myths About Philly Trades
« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2016, 11:09:18 PM »

Offline wiley

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TP, Granath.  I'm in agreement with your take on the number three pick.

I will add, though, that of the three Philly centers, the one I'd be most willing to take a chance on is Noel.  I just think that his defensive potential could make him worth the risk.

I'm not brave enough to want to take a chance on a guy who hasn't been healthy enough to play a single game in his inaugural two NBA seasons.

As far as Okafor goes, I won't deny his offensive talents, but I just don't trust him to be a player that will be easy to utilize in a way that actually helps a team achieve the objective of winning.

I also agree.  And I won't be surprised if one or two centers taken outside the lottery this year have better careers than any of the three Sixer centers in terms of all around impact, IQ, etc.. Think Marc Gasol over offensive Jefferson or Marc Gasol over defensive Chandler.  Which non-lottery center/s?  Got me there.

Okafor would be the only center I'd want.  I don't like the Noel house trashing story even if it's a complex case and still one sided at the moment.  I think Okafor is a good dude who will grow up and be a positive in the locker room eventually.  If Danny traded the #3 for Okafor then I'd assume it's because he and Brad believe that Brad can make him into something more valuable to the Celtics than Dunn, Bender, Murray, etc...

My own instinct would be to stay away for now unless the Sixers make an offer that can't be refused. Instead, keep the 3 (or do a different trade with it) and take a chance on another center prospect who can defend and score both, and pass (even if not as good a scorer as good as Okafor).  Or trade for M. Gasol and sign Pau too, etc...