Poll: Trade Smart 16 and 23 for Noel.

[PickNRoll]

Why is Noel more valuable than Smart? For now they're both strictly one-way players with maybe the potential to be a bit more.  Smart has one more year on his Rookie contract, which is huge: people are going to love Noel a lot less if we're paying him 20m a year in 2017.

I keep hearing that Noel's defensive versatility makes him a more valuable commodity, but which is rarer - a big man who can defend the post and credibly switch on to perimeter players or a PG who can defend the 1,2,3 and even the 4 in an emergency.  Defensive big men may be generally more valuable than defensive guards, but but defensive guards who can defend four positions like Marcus Smart are much harder to find.

How is Noel "versatile"?  He's not versatile at all.  He's a player with an extremely narrow (non-versatile) skill set.  No post game.  Can't pass out of the post.  No post game on offense.  Bad hands, poor fundamentals, poor feel for the game.  This isn't Kevin McHale we're talking about.  This kid is a bad basketball player who happens to be tall with a long wingspan.

[oldtype]

Why is Noel more valuable than Smart? For now they're both strictly one-way players with maybe the potential to be a bit more.  Smart has one more year on his Rookie contract, which is huge: people are going to love Noel a lot less if we're paying him 20m a year in 2017.

I keep hearing that Noel's defensive versatility makes him a more valuable commodity, but which is rarer - a big man who can defend the post and credibly switch on to perimeter players or a PG who can defend the 1,2,3 and even the 4 in an emergency.  Defensive big men may be generally more valuable than defensive guards, but but defensive guards who can defend four positions like Marcus Smart are much harder to find.

How is Noel "versatile"?  He's not versatile at all.  He's a player with an extremely narrow (non-versatile) skill set.  No post game.  Can't pass out of the post.  No post game on offense.  Bad hands, poor fundamentals, poor feel for the game.  This isn't Kevin McHale we're talking about.  This kid is a bad basketball player who happens to be tall with a long wingspan.

He has defensive versatility in the sense that he can protect the paint but also switch onto quick guards in the PNR and not get completely destroyed

[PickNRoll]

Why is Noel more valuable than Smart? For now they're both strictly one-way players with maybe the potential to be a bit more.  Smart has one more year on his Rookie contract, which is huge: people are going to love Noel a lot less if we're paying him 20m a year in 2017.

I keep hearing that Noel's defensive versatility makes him a more valuable commodity, but which is rarer - a big man who can defend the post and credibly switch on to perimeter players or a PG who can defend the 1,2,3 and even the 4 in an emergency.  Defensive big men may be generally more valuable than defensive guards, but but defensive guards who can defend four positions like Marcus Smart are much harder to find.

How is Noel "versatile"?  He's not versatile at all.  He's a player with an extremely narrow (non-versatile) skill set.  No post game.  Can't pass out of the post.  No post game on offense.  Bad hands, poor fundamentals, poor feel for the game.  This isn't Kevin McHale we're talking about.  This kid is a bad basketball player who happens to be tall with a long wingspan.

He has defensive versatility in the sense that he can protect the paint but also switch onto quick guards in the PNR and not get completely destroyed

I watched a lot of 6ers games last year.  God knows why but...   Noel is a net negative on defense.  Horrible timing.  Bad instincts.  Gives up offensive rebounds needlessly.  Bad hands.  Doesn't finish.  Poor decision making.  Doesn't box out well.  Doesn't set good screens.  Not strong enough to win position battles.  Generally has no idea how to win.  This is not the way forward.

[PaulP34]

I'd rather have Okafor then Noel. I think people are so bored by no news that the Celtics are giving us that they have to make news like these ridiculous threads about trading Smart for this guy or trade that pick for this player. Danny is smart. He's keeping it quiet because he's gonna sideswipe us with a tbone steak cheese eggs n Welches grapes when this is all said n done

[Future Celtics Owner]

I hope we are able to draft:

Luwawu
Thon Maker
Caris Lavert
Then we still have 4 more second rounders.

It would be great if Thon fell to us at 23, but I am not too sure some teams before that will not select him.

[crimson_stallion]

You make the deal 101 times out of 100

Not necessarily.

Noel win shares last year: 3.0
Smart win shares last year: 2.9
Noel win shares/per 48: .074
Smart win shares/per 48: .083
Noel VORP: 1.3
Smart VORP: 1.1

By most metrics Smart is about as valuable as Noel. Now there's an axiom in the NBA that you want the good big man over the good little man. There's a premium on size. So even up you make that trade every time if other things are close to equal (like leadership, clubhouse personality, etc.). But when you throw in the 16 and the 23? Now the price is pretty lopsided.

My reasoning for it would be that Noel bridges a number of critical needs that this team has had for years now:

1) Lack of a true paint/rim protector
2) Lack of a 7 footer who can rebound
3) Lack of length and athleticism in the front court

Smart by comparison is a nice player (who I really like), but one great talent he brings is perimeter defense - and with Bradley/Crowder already on the roster, that makes him somewhat redundant. 

That's not to say I would just throw Smart away for nothing - but if you have a chance to give up a guy who is somewhat redundant in order to bring in a guy (of similar quality) who feels an urgent need, then I feel like you have to do that.

I feel like Bradley's quickness on defense and his ability to pressure the ball full court makes him critical to our defense.  I think that Crowder and Smart however both offer similar defensive benefits (good team defense, good size, good strength and physicality) so I feel it's almost redundant having Smart and Crowder on the court at the same time.

I think we'd be far better defensively with Bradley/Crowder/Noel on our roster then we are now with Bradley/Smart/Crowder. 

I'm sure not everybody will agree with my reasoning, but that's just the way I see it!

[KG Living Legend]

I hope we are able to draft:

Luwawu
Thon Maker
Caris Lavert
Then we still have 4 more second rounders.

It would be great if Thon fell to us at 23, but I am not too sure some teams before that will not select him.

 Wierd draft choices IMO. Wouldn't mind Maker but high bust potential. Levert has been hurt more than Ras I Dowling was, wouldn't touch him with any first rounder.

[crimson_stallion]

Why is Noel more valuable than Smart? For now they're both strictly one-way players with maybe the potential to be a bit more.  Smart has one more year on his Rookie contract, which is huge: people are going to love Noel a lot less if we're paying him 20m a year in 2017.

I keep hearing that Noel's defensive versatility makes him a more valuable commodity, but which is rarer - a big man who can defend the post and credibly switch on to perimeter players or a PG who can defend the 1,2,3 and even the 4 in an emergency.  Defensive big men may be generally more valuable than defensive guards, but but defensive guards who can defend four positions like Marcus Smart are much harder to find.

I would say the big.

Smart's ability to defend 1, 2, 3 and 4 in an emergency is made less critical due to the fact that we have Jae Crowder and Evan Turner - who are both quite capable of doing the same.

He's also easier to replace, because in this year's draft alone there are a number of guys who could potentially develop that type of defensive versatility (Dunn, Hield, Ingram, Brown, Luwawu (probably spelt that wrong - sorry!).

In fact pretty much every tallish wing player with some degree of defensive talent (Butler, George, Thompson, Lebron, Barnes, Derozan, Ariza, etc) can do that.   It's not as rare as you might think.

[crimson_stallion]

I hope we are able to draft:

Luwawu
Thon Maker
Caris Lavert
Then we still have 4 more second rounders.

It would be great if Thon fell to us at 23, but I am not too sure some teams before that will not select him.

Honestly, I am pretty high on the idea of taking the best player available at #1, and then using every single other draft pick we have (16, 23 and on) to grab high risk / high upside bigs. 

For example:

#16:
Take best available of Henry Ellenson / Marquese Chriss / Jakob Poeltl / Skal Labissiere / Deyonta Davis

#23:
Take best available of Skal Labissiere / Damien Jones / Domantas Sabonis / Ivaca Zubac / Ante Zizic

#31:
Take best available out of Thon Maker / Ante Zizic / Ivica Zubac / Brice Johnson /' Zhou Qi / Diamond Stone / Stephen Zimmerman

#35 & #45 & #51:
Take the three best available out of Thon Maker / Ante Zizic / Ivica Zubac / Brice Johnson /' Zhou Qi / Diamond Stone / Stephen Zimmerman / Chinanu Onuaku / AJ Hammons / Georgios Papagiannis / Prince Ibeh

Basically just roll that dice 5 times, and you are giving yourself 5 opportunities to land one of those Rudy Gobert / Hassan Whiteside types of hidden big man talents.

Or if that is too big a gamble, then I would try to pick the best player available with both #3 and #16, and then gamble the remaining 4 or so picks on high risk big men.

Worst case if the bigs don't amount to anything they are extra bodies for training camp / summer league / redclaws.  If they do amount to something, then great!

When you are picking outside the top 20 all it really takes is for one of those guys to become a solid 7th or 8th man, and you have done great.  Any better then that and you've hit the jackpot.

[Scintan]

You make the deal 101 times out of 100

Not necessarily.

Noel win shares last year: 3.0
Smart win shares last year: 2.9
Noel win shares/per 48: .074
Smart win shares/per 48: .083
Noel VORP: 1.3
Smart VORP: 1.1

By most metrics Smart is about as valuable as Noel. Now there's an axiom in the NBA that you want the good big man over the good little man. There's a premium on size. So even up you make that trade every time if other things are close to equal (like leadership, clubhouse personality, etc.). But when you throw in the 16 and the 23? Now the price is pretty lopsided.

I'm not saying it doesn't happen but it's certainly not a sure thing. That's a high price to pay for the premium of size. It all depends on someone's projections of player development, team needs and so forth. Personally, I'd do Smart +23 but not 16 because I see that mid 1st pick as too valuable. Those mid-1st have been Rozier, Olynyk, Sullinger, Bradley and Jefferson during Ainge's tenure. That's a pretty decent track record and I generally wouldn't include any of those guys along with Smart and 23 for Noel.

1.) Noel is, as you note, a big man, meaning his inherent value is higher.
2.) Boston needs big men a lot more than they need guards that can't shoot.
3.) Despite having missed his entire rookie season, Noel is actually the younger player, by about a month.
4.) Getting Noel would allow for the team to go for an offensive big man at #3 (or to trade for one), without worrying about how their interior defense would handle it, because...
5.) The suggested trade allows Boston to keep the #3 pick while getting a high potential big.
6.) Boston already has an abundance of picks, so using a couple of them in this way isn't any kind of insurmountable loss of options.
7.) As I noted above, Smart is a guard who can't shoot.
8.) Having Bradley means the team already has a top level defender in the backcourt.
9.) I find the idea that trading the #23 and Rozier, Olynyk, Sullinger is somehow a non-starter to be unsupportable, and the ability to get Jefferson at 15 (that's before 16, obviously, but close enough that I get your inclusion of him) was based at least partly on his being a high schooler when drafted, partly because it was a deep draft (only 4 of the top 20 picks didn't have at least 9 years in the NBA), and partly on Seattle completely blowing it by choosing Swift over Jefferson, and I don't currently see any of those 3 parts resulting in a Jefferson level impact choice in 2016.  That leaves only Bradley as a real concern and, while I love his defense, I don't think that Bradley is a deal killer, at least when combining the odds against actually getting another Bradley at 16, so we'll just have to put it down to us having a difference of opinion.

I acknowledge that a significant chunk of my reasoning revolves around my questions as to whether or not Smart will ever develop an offensive game.  I also acknowledge that Noel's not my ideal trade target, and any deal can come back to bite you in the ass, but I still say you make the deal 101 times out of 100. 

[showtime]

Smart, 16 and 23 for Okafor? I'd do that tomorrow.

I have zero interest in No Knees Noel. We have more than enough bricklayers, thank you. Get me someone who can score the basketball.

  Agree!!

[ahonui06]

I wouldn't trade Smart straight up for Noel, let alone tossing in 2 more 1st round picks.

[PaulP34]

I'd trade Smart for a tbone steak n cheesy mashed potatoes on the side. I just don't like Noel on the Celtics.

[PickNRoll]

I'd trade Smart for a tbone steak n cheesy mashed potatoes on the side. I just don't like Noel on the Celtics.

How do I subtract a Tommy Point?    That's sacrilege man.

[Bobshot]

I wouldn't deal Smart, because he's an important part of their strength--their backcourt D.
For Noel or Okafor, I might deal the #3 and another of the #1 picks. Maybe the 23. My preference would be Okafor for his offense. He was better earlier before Philly decided to play him next to Noel, and his numbers dropped--especially rebounding.