Looking at the first round it's about a 50% chance of drafting a respectable player or better (and of course near the top of the draft maybe very very respectable) but in many cases the player becomes respectable on another team later on
Depends on your definition of "respectable".
http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htmAt the #20 position the average player is basically a borderline deep bench / role player with at least 50% chance of said player being a deep bench or bust and an 85% chance the player won't even be a solid starter. That's not much of a chance at all.
So in 31 chances in the first round, on average Danny should have drafted fewer than 5 solid starters or All Stars. Yet in that time he's drafted Perk, Al Jefferson, Tony Allen, Rondo, Jeff Green, Avery Bradley, Sullinger and Smart (with last year's draft still remaining to be seen). By my count that's 6 solid starters and 2 stars (Big Al and Rondo). Seems quite a bit better than average.
Analyzing picks year by year only works
when you consider who was left at the time a particular player was drafted. Or to put it another way, it must be done in context. It's easy to second guess anyone when you have perfect 20/20 hindsight. What's far more telling is who else missed on players and who was drafted immediately after a supposed poor pick. Saying that even someone like Fab Melo was a bad pick doesn't mean a thing unless there were numerous better players selected in the next 10 or so picks after that spot. Who was good after that? Jared Cunningham? John Jenkins? Perry Jones? So Ainge missed on Draymond Green. Guess what? It also means that
every single GM in the first round also missed on him too!. And it certainly doesn't help to talk about players selected before Danny's selection!
With that in mind I believe your judgement are far too harsh since you're continually cherry picking without considering all the other misses by other GMs...
2003 - I give Ainge a bit of a pass here since he didn't have a ton of time to prepare. Banks was a clear miss with David West and Diaw still on the board. Perk was solid but the next two guys selected were Barbosa and Josh Howard, so there was still plenty of talent out there. Clearly not an exceptional job here but it was not a bust either.
2004 - Big Al was a great pick but again there was a lot of talent the next few picks in Josh and JR Smith, Jameer Nelson and Kevin Martin. But the Cs also did really well with Tony Allen and Delonte West (Martin was selected immediately after these picks and only a couple of guys after that pick were every really productive). This has to be considered a great draft with 3 starters in 3 1st round picks, one of them an All Star.
2005 - Gerald Green has had a long and productive career, even if it wasn't for the Celtics. The talent was fairly deep with Hakeem Warwick, Nate Robinson and Jarret Jack also being tagged the next few picks after Green. You can't consider this draft anything better than average because this talent pool was quite deep with a lot of productive players well into the second round. Of course Green helped get us KG.
2006 - Rondo, hands down, was a winner. Brilliant. Enough said.
2007 - I'm assuming Green was selected for Seattle so that one is a wash. As far as missing in the 2nd round, only Marc Gasol was more productive out of 30 2nd round picks than Big Baby. That can't be put on Danny since everyone else missed Gasol who went 49th. The first round pick doesn't count and the 2nd round was fairly productive given the talent available.
2008 - Ouch. Guys selected right after Giddens included DeAndre, Pekovic, Chalmers and Asik. A clear miss.
2009 - Nothing to draft. Skip it.
2010 - Bradley at #19 was easily the best remaining pick in the 1st round. The only two productive players out of the last 40 are Whiteside and Jordan Crawford. Excellent job by Danny.
2011 - This one hurts and could be considered Danny's worst draft. Brooks has to be seen as a clear miss with Jimmy Butler and Chandler Parsons will available.
2012 - While the shortsighted want to criticize Ainge for the Fab Melo pick, there wasn't a productive player taken with 10 spots after that pick. Sullinger, however, turned out to be the last productive guy taken in the 1st. A couple of nice 2nd rounders make that Melo pick look worse than it really was. But then once you consider everyone else also passed on Crowder, Middleton and Draymond Green, it just seems that the consensus "first round talent" ran out at the point of the Melo pick. So this was actually a pretty decent draft. Too bad Sullinger is eating his way off the team.
Now we're getting to the point that it's too soon to evaluate the drafts since guys haven't played enough seasons to get a handle on their games.
2013 - The only guy selected within 10 picks of KO who has been more productive is Giannis. Hate missing on him but it could have been far worse. Dieng was taken at 21and he probably fills a role the team needs more right now, but KO has been at least as productive.
2014 - When you look at VORP Smart is far and away the best pick thus far of the first round. As far as the guys selected immediately after him, Randle, Payton and Zack LeVine all look like they will have long careers but it's impossible to argue that any of those guys are better than Smart right now. So far it looks like a clear win.
2015 - Far too early to tell.
When you boil it down, this is what you get:
Excellent: 2004, 2006 and 2010
Good: 2012, 2013
Average: 2005, 2007, 2014
Fair: 2003
Poor: 2008, 2011
Incomplete: 2009, 2015
Seems like that's better than average to me.
Topic: So what kind of drafter is Ainge? (Read 7452 times)