if Danny is making the pick, you'd rather he trade it.

[crimson_stallion]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think. 

[guava_wrench]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

His draft record is nothing special. Look at all his picks, not just the hits.

When people do surveys covering all picks of all GMs based on draft position and expected value, Ainge comes out average or slightly below.

[GreenWarrior]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

[Granath]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

You're right CS but you won't convince some of the mouth-breathers that Danny shouldn't have some sort of super-precognition and somehow find that one guy in the last 40 picks who wasn't an absolute bust every single time. They'll insist that lots of stars are chosen late in the draft without ever going to the link I've posted a number of times which shows truly how small of a chance there really is to find a star outside the top 15. They'll even criticize him for drafting a guy that Seattle told him to draft to make the Ray Allen trade happen. It's nonsensical but facts aren't relevant to some folks around here.

[HomerSapien]

Who are the GMs that are the drafting gold standard that we should be comparing Danny Ainge to as a benchmark?

[CoachBo]

R.C. Buford.

Ainge isn't close to his league.

Next question.

[Celtics4ever]

Who are the GMs that are the drafting gold standard that we should be comparing Danny Ainge to as a benchmark?

Sam Presti, of the Thunder is a good drafter.

[crimson_stallion]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

Oh come on!

Here is a list of all the players from the past 10 years who were taken outside of the lottery and who have made an All-Star team or All-NBA team:

2006:
* Rajoin Rondo - 21st by Phoenix Suns (traded to Boston)
* Kyle Lowry - 24th by Memphis Grizzlies
* Paul Millsap - 47th by Utah Jazz

2007:
* Marc Gasol - 48th by LA Lakers

2008:
* Roy Hibbert - 17th by Toronto Raptors (traded to Indiana)
* DeAndre JKordan - 35th by LA Clippers
* Goran Dragic - 45th by SA Spurs (traded to Phoenix)

2009:
* Jrue Holiday - 17th by Philadelphia 76ers
* Jeff Teague - 19th by Atlanta Hawks

2010:
* N/A

2011:
* Kawhi Leonard - 15th by Indiana Pacers (traded to Spurs)
* Jimmy Butler - 30th by Chicago Bulls
* Isaiah Thomas - 60th by Sacramento Kings

2012:
* Draymond Green - 35th by Golden State Warriors

2013:
* N/A

2014:
* N/A

2015:
* N/A

That's 13 guys in 10 years - an average of just over one per year.  The only team who has drafted more than one of those guys was San Anthonio, but that doesn't count because they traded Dragic away (so they obviously didn't envision him becoming as good as he did). 

You know why the list is so small?  Because there's a reason why those guys get taken so late in the draft, and the reason is that NONE of the GM's in the league actually believe those guys are going to be stars - so they get passed on by every team until somebody decided they're willing to gamble a late pick and roll the dice. 

Any team who picks a player outside of the top 14 and ends up with a good starter (let alone a star) has done so on pretty much pure fluke.

The fact that Danny has managed to get guys like Avery Bradley, Al Jefferson, Rajon Rondo and Jared Sulliger with picks outside the top 14 is pretty much propels him up pretty darn close to "draft god" status.

Hell the 76ers have had top 5 picks for something like three straight years now and they have still haven't pulled a guy who looks like a clear cut star.  If you can manage to pull a fringe starter from a pick outside of the lottery, then you have done very well.

I mean honestly - people here were criticising Danny for passing on Gorgiu Dieng.  GORGIU FREAKING DIENG.  Seriously?!?

[Granath]

Who are the GMs that are the drafting gold standard that we should be comparing Danny Ainge to as a benchmark?

That's really the wrong question. No one is claiming Danny is the world's best drafter. He is, however, better than average by any measurable standpoint.

[Boris Badenov]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

For goodness sake...

In every single draft you might have maybe 3 guys (if you're lucky) taken outside of the lottery who end up becoming average starters - that is 3 guys out of something like 45.  That gives you something like a 6% probability of fluking a good player with a pick that is taken at #15 or later. 

It's basically pot luck when you are drafting guys outside of the lottery - you may bet your money on a horse race, you probably have a higher chance of winning then you do of drafting a start that late in the draft.

Every year SOME team is going to get lucky and fluke a good player from a late pick.  That is inevitable simply because there are always one or two of them, and everybody gets taken by somebody.  Hell, I bet you the teams who actually draft those guys probably end up completely shocked themselves that they happen to fluke a gold nugget out of a sea of plastic.

The fact is that these guys go late in the draft for a reason - because no GM in the league thinks they are good enough to be a star.  The ones who DO end up taking those guys at #20 or #30 or #40 - do you honestly believe those GM's would have selected that player if they had a pick in the top 10?  Of course not.  They take them because they have a crappy pick late in the draft, and they decide to pick a random guy to gamble on.

Please, I would love for you to give me a list of all the star (and borderline star) players who have been taken outside of the lottery over the past 10 years.  See if you can find a specific team who has gotten significantly more luck on those picks then all the other teams.  I bet there isn't - because as I said, it's a complete fluke when you're taking guys that late.

As a general rule, if you managed to pick one starting calibre guy out of ever 5 non-lottery picks, then you're doing pretty darn good.

TP for taking this thread where it needed to go.

I mean, someone above mentioned Presti - who is, in fact, a very good drafter. But take a look at his recent picks:

2010 Eric Bledsoe (18), Craig Brackins (21), Quincy Pondexter (26)
2011 Reggie Jackson (24)
2012 Perry Jones (28)
2013 Steven Adams (12), Archie Goodwin (29)
2014 Mitch McGary (21), Josh Huestis (29)
2015 Cameron Payne (14)

Now I look at that list and think relative to draft position, he's done pretty well.

But if we evaluated it using the same logic some people apply to Danny, here's how it would go:

"Presti can't draft for beans. He's had TEN first round picks in the last five years and only one of them is a contributor on this year's Thunder team! They would've won two rings if Presti could draft decently."

"He picked McGary two spots ahead of Hood! What a garbage pick!"

"Sure he picked a couple good players but they're almost all PGs! Why hasn't he been able to draft anyone good at SG when that's the position of need for the last four years?"

"Choosing Perry Jones over Ezeli, Crowder and Dray Green might be the worst draft decision I've ever seen."

"They picked Reggie Jackson and could have had Jimmy Butler! Presti has all the draft acumen of my three year old niece."

[jambr380]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

But, seriously, who are these undersized/hustle players you are talking about that weren't as successful as they should have been given their draft position? Smart, Bradley, Allen, Perkins, Powe? You mean to tell me that you want more of Giddens, Melo, and J. Johnson because they have more upside?

I already made a post basically saying the same thing, but it seems to me that by picking players who show hustle, Ainge is also finding excellent value with the picks - high floor and relatively high ceiling...best of both worlds.

[Roy H.]

Rondo, Big Al, and Avery were all wildly successful draft picks. Delonte, Tony, BBD, Perk, Gomes and Powe, too. KO is solid, just not as good as Giannis. Sully is a success relative to draft position.

He's missed on some late rounders, Banks, Melo and Young. Smart has shown flashes, and very few players taken after him look better.  It's too early to judge last year's draft.

I'd give Danny a solid B+, and probably higher if we're grading on a curve relative to his peers.

[crimson_stallion]

TP for taking this thread where it needed to go.

I mean, someone above mentioned Presti - who is, in fact, a very good drafter. But take a look at his recent picks:

2010 Eric Bledsoe (18), Craig Brackins (21), Quincy Pondexter (26)
2011 Reggie Jackson (24)
2012 Perry Jones (28)
2013 Steven Adams (12), Archie Goodwin (29)
2014 Mitch McGary (21), Josh Huestis (29)
2015 Cameron Payne (14)

Now I look at that list and think relative to draft position, he's done pretty well.

But if we evaluated it using the same logic some people apply to Danny, here's how it would go:

"Presti can't draft for beans. He's had TEN first round picks in the last five years and only one of them is a contributor on this year's Thunder team! They would've won two rings if Presti could draft decently."

"He picked McGary two spots ahead of Hood! What a garbage pick!"

"Sure he picked a couple good players but they're almost all PGs! Why hasn't he been able to draft anyone good at SG when that's the position of need for the last four years?"

"Choosing Perry Jones over Ezeli, Crowder and Dray Green might be the worst draft decision I've ever seen."

"They picked Reggie Jackson and could have had Jimmy Butler! Presti has all the draft acumen of my three year old niece."

TP for accuracy!!

But, seriously, who are these undersized/hustle players you are talking about that weren't as successful as they should have been given their draft position? Smart, Bradley, Allen, Perkins, Powe? You mean to tell me that you want more of Giddens, Melo, and J. Johnson because they have more upside?

I already made a post basically saying the same thing, but it seems to me that by picking players who show hustle, Ainge is also finding excellent value with the picks - high floor and relatively high ceiling...best of both worlds.

Not to mention JaJuan Johnson over E'twaun Moore.

One of those guys made some contribution on a playoff team in his rookie year, and to this day remains a decent NBA rotation player.

The other played a total of 298 minutes as an NBA pro, and then disappeared off the face of the earth.

[kne]

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

You mean like, Draymond Green? 

[elcotte]

Danny overall has a pretty decent drafting history, and i'm being generous when I say that. I personally view draft success by how many guys stick around in the league for yrs. and he's done pretty good at doing that.

but he's never drafted a stud, in fact he's passed over such players. this is where I tend to believe Ainge has issues when it comes to drafting. he falls in love with these guys that are usually under-sized for their position or they're scrappy, all heart n' hustle players... or they're some mix of that. and the ones that weren't a mix of that really were highly disappointing - jeff green.

I hope he trades the pick because last time we were this high that's who we ended up with.... but luckily we traded him.   

No disrespect intended, but I think this is just plain wrong.

You cannot judge Danny Ainge based on how many stars he has drafted - you need to judge him based on the quality of players he has selected RELATIVE to the draft position he's selected them at.

Ainge has consistently drafted guys who have performed beyond their draft position.  Guys like E'Twaun Moore, Big Baby, Jared Sullinger, Avery Bradley, Rajon Rondo, Tony Allen - those guys all became far better players then their draft position suggested they should be.

The last high pick he got was #6 in 14/15, where he drafted Smart.  That has turned out to be a pretty mediocre draft class in all honesty, and if you look at all the guys who were on the board at #6 Marcus Smart has as much promise as pretty much any of them.

The last high pick he got before that was Al Jefferson, who ended up becoming an All-Star calibre player and enough trade value to bring a legit superstar (Ray Allen) to Boston.

Danny has had very few lottery opportunities, and the ones he's had he's mostly done pretty well with.  It's kinda hard to criticise him I think.

no, it isn't.

there's plenty of stars drafted later in the 1st and some in the 2nd. my point is that danny might be missing on these players because he has a propensity for falling in love with the undersized for their position, or all heart n' hustle players

For goodness sake...

In every single draft you might have maybe 3 guys (if you're lucky) taken outside of the lottery who end up becoming average starters - that is 3 guys out of something like 45.  That gives you something like a 6% probability of fluking a good player with a pick that is taken at #15 or later. 

It's basically pot luck when you are drafting guys outside of the lottery - you may bet your money on a horse race, you probably have a higher chance of winning then you do of drafting a start that late in the draft.

Every year SOME team is going to get lucky and fluke a good player from a late pick.  That is inevitable simply because there are always one or two of them, and everybody gets taken by somebody.  Hell, I bet you the teams who actually draft those guys probably end up completely shocked themselves that they happen to fluke a gold nugget out of a sea of plastic.

The fact is that these guys go late in the draft for a reason - because no GM in the league thinks they are good enough to be a star.  The ones who DO end up taking those guys at #20 or #30 or #40 - do you honestly believe those GM's would have selected that player if they had a pick in the top 10?  Of course not.  They take them because they have a crappy pick late in the draft, and they decide to pick a random guy to gamble on.

Please, I would love for you to give me a list of all the star (and borderline star) players who have been taken outside of the lottery over the past 10 years.  See if you can find a specific team who has gotten significantly more luck on those picks then all the other teams.  I bet there isn't - because as I said, it's a complete fluke when you're taking guys that late.

As a general rule, if you managed to pick one starting calibre guy out of ever 5 non-lottery picks, then you're doing pretty darn good.

TP for taking this thread where it needed to go.

I mean, someone above mentioned Presti - who is, in fact, a very good drafter. But take a look at his recent picks:

2010 Eric Bledsoe (18), Craig Brackins (21), Quincy Pondexter (26)
2011 Reggie Jackson (24)
2012 Perry Jones (28)
2013 Steven Adams (12), Archie Goodwin (29)
2014 Mitch McGary (21), Josh Huestis (29)
2015 Cameron Payne (14)

Now I look at that list and think relative to draft position, he's done pretty well.

But if we evaluated it using the same logic some people apply to Danny, here's how it would go:

"Presti can't draft for beans. He's had TEN first round picks in the last five years and only one of them is a contributor on this year's Thunder team! They would've won two rings if Presti could draft decently."

"He picked McGary two spots ahead of Hood! What a garbage pick!"

"Sure he picked a couple good players but they're almost all PGs! Why hasn't he been able to draft anyone good at SG when that's the position of need for the last four years?"

"Choosing Perry Jones over Ezeli, Crowder and Dray Green might be the worst draft decision I've ever seen."

"They picked Reggie Jackson and could have had Jimmy Butler! Presti has all the draft acumen of my three year old niece."

Excellent post!