I'm calling it...our #3 draft pick for 2016. Buddy Hield. Boom.

[kozlodoev]

problem is, that 6'7 guy will be a work in progress for like five years.

Most players pan one way or the other long before 5 years. Claiming that someone is a "work in progress" in year 3 or 4 of their professional career is just a form of denial that your pet player turned out not an NBA-caliber player.

[D Dub]

problem is, that 6'7 guy will be a work in progress for like five years.

Most players pan one way or the other long before 5 years. Claiming that someone is a "work in progress" in year 3 or 4 of their professional career is just a form of denial that your pet player turned out not an NBA-caliber player.

it took Marvin Williams that long.  MKG is just now coming into his own. 

point is, the experts love to hype the genetic lotto winner -- when it's really the deadly shooters who have greater value & higher ceilings in today's game. 

[LarBrd33]

Is Hield the sort of player who will be useless on nights when his shot isn't falling?

Is Bender?  Is Murray?

I'm not a Buddy booster over any other pick but it's kind of ridiculous to talk about talk about the guy who was the best or 2nd best player in all of college basketball last season like we don't have any idea of what kind of player he could be, while guys who are total mysteries or one-year wonders get every benefit of the doubt.

Mike

Yeah, it's true... Buddy Hield won the Naismith.  So clearly that tells us everything we need to know about him.

You know who also won the Naismith (as well as AP College player of the Year, Adolph Rupp Trophy, John R Wooden Award, Oscar Robertson Trophy, NABC Player of the Year and Sporting News Player of the Year)?.... DOUG MCDERMOTT.

McDermott swept all 7 "Player of the Year" awards in 2014.  More evidence that McDermott would be taken ahead of Hield if they were coming out at the same time?

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

So if you're trying to say that Buddy Hield (who we both seem to be in agreement is considered a Tier 3 prospect) will fare as well as someone like Tyler Hansbrough or Jimmer Fredette on the next level, I agree that you might be on to something.  We should take the "superstar college seniors" thing for what it's worth.   

[kozlodoev]

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

I don't see how Camby and Laettner are similar to anyone else on your list but whatever.

[MBunge]

problem is, that 6'7 guy will be a work in progress for like five years.

Most players pan one way or the other long before 5 years. Claiming that someone is a "work in progress" in year 3 or 4 of their professional career is just a form of denial that your pet player turned out not an NBA-caliber player.

Kyle Lowry didn't average over 15 points a game until he was 27 and had been in the league for 7 years. Steve Nash never averaged double digit assists until he turned 30.  It took Hasan Whiteside two chances and age 25 to make it in the NBA and he could get a max or near max deal this off-season.  Gerald Green was out of the league for two years before coming back at 26 to be a valuable bench player.

Mike

[LarBrd33]

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

I don't see how Camby and Laettner are similar to anyone else on your list but whatever.

So if we're looking at highly touted Seniors taken in the lotto who had rough freshman seasons, I guess the best-case comp for Hield is Brandon Roy (ignoring the fact that Roy only played 4 seasons in the NBA).  Worst-case scenario:  Jimmer Fredette - averaged Hield-esque 7 points as a Freshman and a Hield-esque 28.9 points as a Senior.   Was taken in the top 10.      Medium-case scenario for Hield:  Doug McBuckets - more impressive than Hield as a Freshman.  More impressive than Hield as a Senior.  So far looks like a player who can have a solid NBA career and might even work his way into a starting lineup.

[kozlodoev]

problem is, that 6'7 guy will be a work in progress for like five years.

Most players pan one way or the other long before 5 years. Claiming that someone is a "work in progress" in year 3 or 4 of their professional career is just a form of denial that your pet player turned out not an NBA-caliber player.

Kyle Lowry didn't average over 15 points a game until he was 27 and had been in the league for 7 years. Steve Nash never averaged double digit assists until he turned 30.  It took Hasan Whiteside two chances and age 25 to make it in the NBA and he could get a max or near max deal this off-season.  Gerald Green was out of the league for two years before coming back at 26 to be a valuable bench player.

I suggest to pick a dozen of random NBA players from basketball-reference and check what was their breakout/wash out year. I'm putting the over under on 3 and taking under.

[kozlodoev]

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

I don't see how Camby and Laettner are similar to anyone else on your list but whatever.

So if we're looking at highly touted Seniors taken in the lotto who had rough freshman seasons, I guess the best-case comp for Hield is Brandon Roy (ignoring the fact that Roy only played 4 seasons in the NBA).  Worst-case scenario:  Jimmer Fredette - averaged Hield-esque 7 points as a Freshman and a Hield-esque 28.9 points as a Senior.   Was taken in the top 10.      Medium-case scenario for Hield:  Doug McBuckets - more impressive than Hield as a Freshman.  More impressive than Hield as a Senior.  So far looks like a player who can have a solid NBA career and might even work his way into a starting lineup.

All I am saying is that Marcus Camby was a DPOY with 4 all-defense selections and a 16-year career, and Laettner averaged 17 and 8 in his first 7 years in the NBA.

Also, based on what I've seen, Buddy Hield makes Brandon Roy (who came into the league with question marks about his athleticism and explosiveness) look like Gerald Green. Everything Hield does happens 1 foot off the ground and that's just not going to fly in the NBA, literally and figuratively.

[guava_wrench]

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

I don't see how Camby and Laettner are similar to anyone else on your list but whatever.

They swept all 7 awards. Says it right there in his comment.

[LooseCannon]

my personal feeling is that experts haven't evolved their valuations to an ever changing league. 

shooting is the biggest example of this.  still today, much like it was 25 years ago, we see experts put greater value on the 6'7 wing who can't shoot over the 6'5 wing with deadly range. 

problem is, that 6'7 guy will be a work in progress for like five years.  the Marvin Williams, Mo Harkless', Wes Johnsons, MKG's ---- all these guys end up with the same ceiling as a 3/D role player. 

it's the transcendent shooters who, in today's game, really have the higher ceilings.  guys like Lillard, Curry, IT were all doubted by the experts because of their size.  but thanks to a superior shooting touch, each were able to carve out All Star births.   

that's why I like both Bender and Hield -- they can shoot the 3 better than their peers.  simple as that for me.

I'd say that is an argument for being willing to take players who are undersized but talented, and Ainge can certainly be accused of being willing to take undersized players over prospects with prototypical height and length.  "Is he athletic enough to play NBA defense?" is a more important question than "Is he tall/long enough to play NBA defense?", where leaping ability isn't that important of a component of the necessarily athleticism as some people believe.

Physical tools aren't enough, which is why I don't lust after project big men with elite athleticism, but too much of a physical deficit can't be overcome by elite skills.  At what spot in the draft would be comfortable taking a player who projects to have the shooting touch of Steve Novak and the defensive abilities of Steve Novak?

[LarBrd33]

Hield split those awards with Denzel Valentine... which is what happened back in 2004 when Adam Morrison and JJ Reddick split the awards.

Other noteable players who swept all 7 awards:  Tyler Hansbrough, Jimmer Fredette, Frank Kaminsky, Jameer Nelson, Kenyon Martin, Marcus Camby, Galbert Cheaney, Christian Laettner.

I don't see how Camby and Laettner are similar to anyone else on your list but whatever.

So if we're looking at highly touted Seniors taken in the lotto who had rough freshman seasons, I guess the best-case comp for Hield is Brandon Roy (ignoring the fact that Roy only played 4 seasons in the NBA).  Worst-case scenario:  Jimmer Fredette - averaged Hield-esque 7 points as a Freshman and a Hield-esque 28.9 points as a Senior.   Was taken in the top 10.      Medium-case scenario for Hield:  Doug McBuckets - more impressive than Hield as a Freshman.  More impressive than Hield as a Senior.  So far looks like a player who can have a solid NBA career and might even work his way into a starting lineup.

All I am saying is that Marcus Camby was a DPOY with 4 all-defense selections and a 16-year career, and Laettner averaged 17 and 8 in his first 7 years in the NBA.

Also, based on what I've seen, Buddy Hield makes Brandon Roy (who came into the league with question marks about his athleticism and explosiveness) look like Gerald Green. Everything Hield does happens 1 foot off the ground and that's just not going to fly in the NBA, literally and figuratively.

This is true.  We're also talking about top 3 picks from 1992 and 1996.   My mistake for listing them.  KG was the first highschool to the pros in 1995 with Kobe doing it in 1996.  That sort of set off a chain of events where kids were jumping ship right from highschool in the late 90s/early 00s... and after the NBA changed the rule, pretty much every significant prospect jumped ship after Freshman season.    So being a super senior in the early 90s isn't the same as being a super senior in 2016.   The awards still generally go to the kids that stay 4 years, but the elite peers who outperformed those seniors have mostly already jumped ship for the NBA by the time those guys are dominating.

So then, if we're looking at recent examples of Super Seniors who got taken in the lotto, it's not as exciting of a list.   And recent examples of guards, like Jimmer, impact how we see Hield.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Jaylen Brown is IMO the riskiest pick in the first 10 picks. 

Anyways, I am pretty much convinced that we draft Bender at this point.  Every board for the Suns and Wolves are also hoping he falls to them, with both happy with Murray as a consolation prize.  None of them want Brown and Hield isn't nearly as big with their fan bases.  I think Brown falls to 10 or so, which will probably be good for him.

All of my old posts from 2016 are making me cringe.  I really loved Bender, too.  I should not run an NBA team.

[Phantom255x]

Jaylen Brown is IMO the riskiest pick in the first 10 picks. 

Anyways, I am pretty much convinced that we draft Bender at this point.  Every board for the Suns and Wolves are also hoping he falls to them, with both happy with Murray as a consolation prize.  None of them want Brown and Hield isn't nearly as big with their fan bases.  I think Brown falls to 10 or so, which will probably be good for him.

All of my old posts from 2016 are making me cringe.  I really loved Bender, too.  I should not run an NBA team.

To be honest, I think all 2016 threads look 'cringey' now (if that's a word). A TON of people hated the Brown pick at #3, and most that loved Brown thought he could be had at 5-7 range too. Most wanted Bender, Dunn OR to trade the pick for J. Butler at the time (OR... Noel + Covington + 24 and 26 LOL).

I honestly wanted us to take Brown, BUT to trade down for him. But I guess Danny didn't think he'd be available lower than 5, or maybe there wasn't a trade down offer that another team wanted to accept. Who knows...

I honestly wasn't high on Bender, and thought either Dunn or Brown would be a great pick (but preferred Brown due to two-way potential).

[SparzWizard]

Jaylen Brown is IMO the riskiest pick in the first 10 picks. 

Anyways, I am pretty much convinced that we draft Bender at this point.  Every board for the Suns and Wolves are also hoping he falls to them, with both happy with Murray as a consolation prize.  None of them want Brown and Hield isn't nearly as big with their fan bases.  I think Brown falls to 10 or so, which will probably be good for him.

All of my old posts from 2016 are making me cringe.  I really loved Bender, too.  I should not run an NBA team.

Don't feel bad man. I was salivating over a backcourt of Markelle Fultz and Isaiah Thomas this time last year.

[Phantom255x]

Jaylen Brown is IMO the riskiest pick in the first 10 picks. 

Anyways, I am pretty much convinced that we draft Bender at this point.  Every board for the Suns and Wolves are also hoping he falls to them, with both happy with Murray as a consolation prize.  None of them want Brown and Hield isn't nearly as big with their fan bases.  I think Brown falls to 10 or so, which will probably be good for him.

All of my old posts from 2016 are making me cringe.  I really loved Bender, too.  I should not run an NBA team.

Don't feel bad man. I was salivating over a backcourt of Markelle Fultz and Isaiah Thomas this time last year.

Two years ago.. I asked in a thread who we would keep out of Isaiah/Smart/Bradley (aka... who is the odd man out in that group since FA was coming up for them).

Turns out, we lose Isaiah AND Bradley, and kept Smart after all that. Who would have thought...