I'm calling it...our #3 draft pick for 2016. Buddy Hield. Boom.

[mctyson]

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

^this

Hield is overhyped.

You can't "overhype" shooting.  He can shoot, and he was one of the better 3-pt shooters in recent college history.

Let's not forget that if Wes Matthews didn't tear his achilles, he would be on a max contract right now.

[mctyson]

I'm calling it....if Danny Ainge drafts Buddy Hield with the #3 pick he will be fired....Boom!

Seriously, Hield is likely to be a very nice role player, but if I was a betting man I would definitely bet he never makes a single All-Star game.

JJ Redick seems like a fair ceiling for Hield.

You realize that JJ Redick is one of the best shooters on the planet, correct? 

[mctyson]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

First, you have to separate out guards vs. bigs.  Comparing Hield's prospects to Williams or Hansbrough because they are seniors isn't right.

Second, we should only look at those drafted in the top-7 or so.  Hield is rated as a significantly higher prospect than many on this list, and if he fell into the late lottery, it would either be a huge steal for some team or he would confirm the negative opinions on his game.

Having said that, we don't have a lot of comps in the top 7.  When you look at the guards in your list, it's actually quite compelling:  Roy (when healthy), Lillard, McCollum, Reddick are all players we would love to have on the Celtics right now.  That to me is a good case that the #3 pick is worth Buddy Hield.

The worst case scenarios are Law or Fredette.  I think Hield is a superior athlete and ball-handler vs. Fredette so I'm not worried about that trajectory.  I can't remember a ton about Acie Law's game but to me that seems to be the best "negative comp" you could draw towards Buddy Hield.  Ball-dominant, slightly undersized SGs throwing up huge numbers in college, but can't translate that to the NBA where there are much better defenders.

That list you compiled isn't all that bad, would say about 50% of those players are solid NBA starters with a couple All-Star quality talents mixed in.

[greece66]

I'm calling it....if Danny Ainge drafts Buddy Hield with the #3 pick he will be fired....Boom!

Seriously, Hield is likely to be a very nice role player, but if I was a betting man I would definitely bet he never makes a single All-Star game.

JJ Redick seems like a fair ceiling for Hield.

You realize that JJ Redick is one of the best shooters on the planet, correct?

His point is still valid: he is talking of ceiling. Most players never reach their ceiling. Ceiling is just one among many factors. And a JJ Redick ceiling for a #3 pick is hardly a compliment.

If we are going to compare ceilings, according to many, Ingram's ceiling is KD and Simmons' LBJ. Zhou Qi has been proclaimed to be the next Yao Ming, and Domantas the reincarnation of Arvydas Sabonis.

You see, a player's ceiling cannot be quantified and disagreements are based on taste, eye-test and favourite flavour of ball. It is a guess not only of how good a player can turn out if everything turns out perfectly well (he gets playing time, an understanding coach and good teammates, no injuries, a down to earth character and good work ethic etc) but also of the direction the NBA is likely to have taken by the time the player reaches his peak: small ball vs dominant bigs, 3pts vs driving to the basket, transition vs half court offence etc...

 

[ssspence]

Hield has Adam Morrison-like bust potential, IMO. I like to watch him play,
but drafting him would be a very risky move.

[CroCorvus]

I'm calling it right now... we're gonna trade our top pick for a proven player, pick pf/c with Mavs or our own pick, pick one or two more players with one of our second round picks and stash him in Europe. We gonna trade the rest of this year's picks. 

[MBunge]

On the Hield vs. Redick comparison, I believe Buddy as a senior was 20 pounds heavier, which means he's a substantially bigger and stronger player.  Reddick also played with seven other eventual NBA players while at Duke.  Unless a teammate gets drafted in the 2nd round this year, it looks like Buddy will have played with no other NBA-level talents in college.

And Redick is pretty clearly the third best player taken in the lottery that year.

Mike

[elcotte]

Hield has Adam Morrison-like bust potential, IMO. I like to watch him play,
but drafting him would be a very risky move.

I agree. He got completely shut down in his last game.

[Ilikesports17]

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

^this

Hield is overhyped.

You can't "overhype" shooting.  He can shoot, and he was one of the better 3-pt shooters in recent college history.

Let's not forget that if Wes Matthews didn't tear his achilles, he would be on a max contract right now.

and if JR Smith wasnt a complete idiot hed probably be on one too.

[wiley]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

careful though.  Using this method it would have wrong to draft  Lillard or McCollum.

[PaulP34]

So what if Buddy Heild becomes a Stephen Curry type player ? You guys always under estimate people in the draft. Buddy just started to turn it on in his senior career. That tells me he is going to blossum in the NBA. In two years the kid will be a top ten player. In three years we are looking at a top 5 player. You guys really wanna pass that up ? That's crazy. You would let either Suns, Timberwolves or Sacramento steal him from us ? Wow that's pretty ignorant...

[Ilikesports17]

So what if Buddy Heild becomes a Stephen Curry type player ? You guys always under estimate people in the draft. Buddy just started to turn it on in his senior career. That tells me he is going to blossum in the NBA. In two years the kid will be a top ten player. In three years we are looking at a top 5 player. You guys really wanna pass that up ? That's crazy. You would let either Suns, Timberwolves or Sacramento steal him from us ? Wow that's pretty ignorant...

This post is absurd.

Frank Kaminsky and Acie Law also "just started to turn it on in his senior career".

[GetLucky]

So what if Buddy Heild becomes a Stephen Curry type player ? You guys always under estimate people in the draft. Buddy just started to turn it on in his senior career. That tells me he is going to blossum in the NBA. In two years the kid will be a top ten player. In three years we are looking at a top 5 player. You guys really wanna pass that up ? That's crazy. You would let either Suns, Timberwolves or Sacramento steal him from us ? Wow that's pretty ignorant...

Calling people "ignorant" in the same post that you misspell Buddy Hield's name and say that he will follow the developmental path of Stephen Curry is probably not the best idea.

[budMovin]

What if we trade Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, #3 pick for PF-Corey Jefferson and the #4 pick and draft Buddy Heild 👍

So what if Buddy Heild becomes a Stephen Curry type player ? You guys always under estimate people in the draft. Buddy just started to turn it on in his senior career. That tells me he is going to blossum in the NBA. In two years the kid will be a top ten player. In three years we are looking at a top 5 player. You guys really wanna pass that up ? That's crazy. You would let either Suns, Timberwolves or Sacramento steal him from us ? Wow that's pretty ignorant...

I am so confused.

[CelticSooner]

Hield has Adam Morrison-like bust potential, IMO. I like to watch him play,
but drafting him would be a very risky move.

I agree. He got completely shut down in his last game.

He didn't get shut down. No one on the team could have a basket and Villanova couldn't miss. It's basketball, it happens.