I'm calling it...our #3 draft pick for 2016. Buddy Hield. Boom.

[LarBrd33]

(1) I really just don't see the point of trading down a slot to pick up another first that we won't be able to use or trade for anything meaningful

Not meaningful? Huh? First of all, letting PHO move from 4 to 3 would likely mean a swap of 23 for 13. And having 16 and 13 then allows Danny to trade up to #10 or so. That's a pretty blasted meaningful draft pick.

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

Talent evaluation is not your strong suit.

Matthews we can compare easily since both he and Hield came out of college at roughly the same age and are roughly the same size. Hield is clearly a better physical prospect but let's look at their college production their senior year. In his last year of college Matthews averaged 18ppg, shooting 51.7% from 2, 37% from 3 and a TS of 60%. Hield averaged 25ppg, 55% from 2, 45% from 3 and a TS of 66%. In a nutshell Hield is a far, far better player at this stage of his career than Matthews was. There is no evidence whatsoever that getting to Matthews level would be Hield's "best case. In fact the opposite is true. Matthews is Hield's floor, not ceiling.

As for comparing him with JR Smith, that's a bit odd. Beyond being roughly the same size there's nothing to compare. JR Smith came out of High School and wasn't known as a shooter but as a raw athlete. And while Smith has become quite a decent shooter in his career, none of his stats come anywhere close to Hield's. Smith is also known as a knucklehead with an exceptionally low basketball IQ while Hield is known as a good character guy who is a leader and a gym rat.

Someone will impress in the pre-draft workouts but right now I'm with the OP - Hield is my binkie for the #3 pick. The guy has gotten better every year and can do the one thing that the Cs really need - putting the ball in the basket consistently. He also seems to be a good character guy. I also don't buy this "22 year olds can't develop into superstars" line of rhetoric. It's all a matter of their development at their age and it's impossible to deny that Hield produced at an exceptionally high - almost impossibly high - level last year for a major college program.

yeah, 22 year olds never become superstars.  22-year old rookies like Larry Bird and Kevin Mchale.  what a couple of wasted picks on scrubs   

For real, though... can someone list off some recent players who were garbage as Freshman, excellent as Seniors, and became All-stars in the NBA?

[LarBrd33]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

[MJohnnyboy]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

[LarBrd33]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23. 

It's pretty much acknowledged that players who turn 23 their rookie season have very low ceilings.  So unless you genuinely believe he's going to defy the odds and show up as a star-caliber player (like Brandon Roy), you should opt to take someone with greater potential. 

[MJohnnyboy]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23.

Right back at you for the study. To be honest, I don't know. I think it all depends on what happens during the workouts and what Danny sees in the guys. He has a nice group to choose from. I believe that Murray has more potential but since, as you say, Hield is older, I think he's more likely to give the Celtics production right away if he's taken. As far as how much production, that remains to be seen.

It doesn't really matter to me because I think the Celtics either take Bender or they are trading the pick for Okafor.

[LarBrd33]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23.

Right back at you for the study. To be honest, I don't know. I think it all depends on what happens during the workouts and what Danny sees in the guys. He has a nice group to choose from. I believe that Murray has more potential but since, as you say, Hield is older, I think he's more likely to give the Celtics production right away if he's taken. As far as how much production, that remains to be seen.

It doesn't really matter to me because I think the Celtics either take Bender or they are trading the pick for Okafor.

Yeah i think when it comes to Seniors like Hield it's important to keep in mind that during his first crack at the College level, he was pretty weak.   He excelled during his 4th try, but it's like looking at a kid who had to repeat his final year of highschool 4 times before he finally aced his final exams.  It's unlikely that kid is going to then be a genius when he starts taking College classes. 

You usually want to take a guy who was able to excel against competition as a Freshman, because it means he might develop into a type of player who can excel on the NBA level.

[CelticSooner]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23. 

It's pretty much acknowledged that players who turn 23 their rookie season have very low ceilings.  So unless you genuinely believe he's going to defy the odds and show up as a star-caliber player (like Brandon Roy), you should opt to take someone with greater potential.

You keep saying you don't watch college basketball but you comment on it like you do. lol If you compare every player based on someone else you're always going to find something about them you don't like. Not every player is going to have the same path to the NBA. Buddy was just a poor kid from the Bahamas that fell in love with basketball and worked his butt of to get better every year. Just because it took him 4 years to get where he is now shouldn't be a determent to his ability. It's like his detractors assume he's just going to fall off a cliff after his senior year.

Potential is the most overused word in the NBA. Potential will get Harrison Barnes a max deal or Darko a top 2 pick. It's a good thing MJ didn't quit after he was kicked off his high school team or Tim Duncan only wanted to swim the rest of his life. They didn't have enough potential at the time so why keep working on your game? You can either play or you can't. Too many times GM's overthink these things. Other factors are more important than just potential...

[RebusRankin]

Go for Bender.

[chambers]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

But Buddy Hield didn't suck. He averaged 17.4 points of 45% FG, 39%3pt fg and 83%FT over 4 years.

Do the same comparison for players who came from their 3rd year in college to the NBA and the list suddenly includes (off the top of my head) Curry, Klay Thompson, Nash, Lilliard, Noah, Aldridge and a bunch of others.
Point is that great players have an 'aha' moment. Some have it has freshmen, some have it has 2nd,3rd or 4th year. Some have it in their 3rf or 4th nba season.
Once players reach that height,  the question is whether they can continue building. Hiled was always an excellent player. He never 'sucked'. He has just had his 'aha' moment as a senior.
Obviously it's an advantage vs younger college guys, but as Kobe Bryant said about Hield...the dude is a scorer. Dont complicate it and over analyze it and give him a 'label' because he's a senior.
Bill Walton also said the reason he's intriguing is because he's got an NBA style of game and will benefit even more from NBA spacing.

Hield is a special scorer and we need a special scorer.
Seems like the kinda guy Ainge will simply froth over (to me at least).

[mr. dee]

I love hard working and hustle players, but 9 times out of 10, if you got a player that has a mix of both, with physical gifts, a smart but troubled mindset, (like Rajon Rondo,) I'll take that player over the hustle on both ends, and hard working player any time of the day.

You can't teach ethic and hard work, but being physically gifted can help make up for most deficiencies.

Perfect statement. Couldn't agree more. Ultimately, talent and gifts win out. Not hard work.
TP

Not always the case. See Darko, Beasley and Odom.

[mr. dee]

(1) I really just don't see the point of trading down a slot to pick up another first that we won't be able to use or trade for anything meaningful

Not meaningful? Huh? First of all, letting PHO move from 4 to 3 would likely mean a swap of 23 for 13. And having 16 and 13 then allows Danny to trade up to #10 or so. That's a pretty blasted meaningful draft pick.

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

Talent evaluation is not your strong suit.

Matthews we can compare easily since both he and Hield came out of college at roughly the same age and are roughly the same size. Hield is clearly a better physical prospect but let's look at their college production their senior year. In his last year of college Matthews averaged 18ppg, shooting 51.7% from 2, 37% from 3 and a TS of 60%. Hield averaged 25ppg, 55% from 2, 45% from 3 and a TS of 66%. In a nutshell Hield is a far, far better player at this stage of his career than Matthews was. There is no evidence whatsoever that getting to Matthews level would be Hield's "best case. In fact the opposite is true. Matthews is Hield's floor, not ceiling.

As for comparing him with JR Smith, that's a bit odd. Beyond being roughly the same size there's nothing to compare. JR Smith came out of High School and wasn't known as a shooter but as a raw athlete. And while Smith has become quite a decent shooter in his career, none of his stats come anywhere close to Hield's. Smith is also known as a knucklehead with an exceptionally low basketball IQ while Hield is known as a good character guy who is a leader and a gym rat.

Someone will impress in the pre-draft workouts but right now I'm with the OP - Hield is my binkie for the #3 pick. The guy has gotten better every year and can do the one thing that the Cs really need - putting the ball in the basket consistently. He also seems to be a good character guy. I also don't buy this "22 year olds can't develop into superstars" line of rhetoric. It's all a matter of their development at their age and it's impossible to deny that Hield produced at an exceptionally high - almost impossibly high - level last year for a major college program.

yeah, 22 year olds never become superstars.  22-year old rookies like Larry Bird and Kevin Mchale.  what a couple of wasted picks on scrubs   

For real, though... can someone list off some recent players who were garbage as Freshman, excellent as Seniors, and became All-stars in the NBA?

David West (2003, Xavier)
Josh Howard (2003, Wake Forest)
Kyle Korver (2003, Creighton)
Jameer Nelson (2004, Saint Joseph)
Danny Granger (2005, New Mexico)
David Lee (2005, Florida)
Brandon Roy (2006, Washington)
Roy Hibbert (2008, Georgetown)
Jimmy Butler (2011, Marquette)
Damian Lillard (2012, Weber St.)
Draymond Green (2012, Michigan St.)

[vjcsmoke]

What if we trade Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart, #3 pick for PF-Corey Jefferson and the #4 pick and draft Buddy Heild 👍

Wait, you are trading Jae Crowder AND Marcus Smart (#6 overall) and dropping back from #3 to the #4 spot for Corey Jefferson, a former 2nd round pick??  Edited.  Profanity and masked profanity are against forum rules and may result in discipline.?!  I think I got dumber reading that post.

[Cman]

Maybe it's Hield. I could see Bender, Brown or Hield. Likely in that order.

[LarBrd33]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23. 

It's pretty much acknowledged that players who turn 23 their rookie season have very low ceilings.  So unless you genuinely believe he's going to defy the odds and show up as a star-caliber player (like Brandon Roy), you should opt to take someone with greater potential.

You keep saying you don't watch college basketball but you comment on it like you do.

I definitely don't follow it, but I'm familiar with some patterns... such as college kids making major statistical leaps the longer they keep playing on that level.  It doesn't seem to translate to NBA success. 

[chambers]

Since nobody had the answer, I'll go back and look at the drafts.  Here's every single Senior taken in the lotto since 2005:

2005 - Channing Frye - 8th
2006 - Shelden Williams - 5th
2006 - Brandon Roy - 6th
2006 - Randy Foye - 7th
2006 - JJ Reddick - 11th
2006 - Hilton Armstrong - 12th
2007 - Acie Law - 11th
2007 - Al Thornton - 14th
2008 - Jason Thompson - 12th
2009 - Terrence Williams - 11th
2009 - Tyler Hansbrough - 13th
2011 - Jimmer Fredette - 10th
2012 - Damian Lillard - 6th (technically a redshirt Jr)
2013 - CJ McCollum - 10th
2014 - Doug McDermott - 11th
2014 - Adreian Payne - 15th
2015 - Frank Kaminsky - 9th

Observations:  Most of them sucked.  Only one senior was taken top 5 (Shelden Williams).   Only a few guys are notable:  Brandon Roy, who was great early.   Damian Lillard, who was technically a redshirt Junior and probably would have come out his real Junior season had he not gotten injured.  And CJ McCollum, who took 3 years to show anything in the NBA, but was actually pretty excellent as a Freshman.

So based on that, I guess Brandon Roy is the one we're hoping for?

Roy had a pretty weak Freshman season:  6.1 points, 2.9 rebounds, 1 assist with 50%/10%/49% shooting.    By his senior season he averaged 20.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.4 steals with 51%/40%/81% shooting.

Meanwhile, Hield averaged 7.8 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.9 assists, 1.2 steals with 38%/24%/83% shooting as a Freshman.  By his senior season he averaged 24 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2 assists, 1.1 steals with 50%/46%/88% shooting. 

Take that for what it's worth.

Funny how the best ones that panned out were all drafted by Portland. Maybe we should ask them what they think of Buddy.

Nice observation.  TP.   

I think the key thing is that on the amateur level, players typically are significantly better during their 4th year playing against the same level of competition.   It doesn't necessarily translate to the pro level.   I don't actually watch College basketball, but it makes sense to me why a guy like Jamal Murray's Freshman season is more impressive than what Hield did as a Senior.  Murray, as a freshman, averaged 20 points, 5.2 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1 steal with 45%/41%/78% shooting.  So does that mean if Murray stayed until his Senior year, he'd be averaging 30+ points?  It makes sense why you'd want the 19 year old rookie over the 23 year old rookie when their stats are relatively the same and studies show that players make their greatest improvement before the age of 23. 

It's pretty much acknowledged that players who turn 23 their rookie season have very low ceilings.  So unless you genuinely believe he's going to defy the odds and show up as a star-caliber player (like Brandon Roy), you should opt to take someone with greater potential.

You keep saying you don't watch college basketball but you comment on it like you do.

I definitely don't follow it, but I'm familiar with some patterns... such as college kids making major statistical leaps the longer they keep playing on that level.  It doesn't seem to translate to NBA success.

You're not familiar with patterns. You threw out a general statement with completely irrelevant factors and conditions and zero evidence. It's basically your opinion- which is fine either way- there's just no evidence that supports your couch theory.