I'm calling it...our #3 draft pick for 2016. Buddy Hield. Boom.

[slamtheking]

(1) I really just don't see the point of trading down a slot to pick up another first that we won't be able to use or trade for anything meaningful

Not meaningful? Huh? First of all, letting PHO move from 4 to 3 would likely mean a swap of 23 for 13. And having 16 and 13 then allows Danny to trade up to #10 or so. That's a pretty blasted meaningful draft pick.

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

Talent evaluation is not your strong suit.

Matthews we can compare easily since both he and Hield came out of college at roughly the same age and are roughly the same size. Hield is clearly a better physical prospect but let's look at their college production their senior year. In his last year of college Matthews averaged 18ppg, shooting 51.7% from 2, 37% from 3 and a TS of 60%. Hield averaged 25ppg, 55% from 2, 45% from 3 and a TS of 66%. In a nutshell Hield is a far, far better player at this stage of his career than Matthews was. There is no evidence whatsoever that getting to Matthews level would be Hield's "best case. In fact the opposite is true. Matthews is Hield's floor, not ceiling.

As for comparing him with JR Smith, that's a bit odd. Beyond being roughly the same size there's nothing to compare. JR Smith came out of High School and wasn't known as a shooter but as a raw athlete. And while Smith has become quite a decent shooter in his career, none of his stats come anywhere close to Hield's. Smith is also known as a knucklehead with an exceptionally low basketball IQ while Hield is known as a good character guy who is a leader and a gym rat.

Someone will impress in the pre-draft workouts but right now I'm with the OP - Hield is my binkie for the #3 pick. The guy has gotten better every year and can do the one thing that the Cs really need - putting the ball in the basket consistently. He also seems to be a good character guy. I also don't buy this "22 year olds can't develop into superstars" line of rhetoric. It's all a matter of their development at their age and it's impossible to deny that Hield produced at an exceptionally high - almost impossibly high - level last year for a major college program.

yeah, 22 year olds never become superstars.  22-year old rookies like Larry Bird and Kevin Mchale.  what a couple of wasted picks on scrubs   

[KGs Knee]

I'm calling it....if Danny Ainge drafts Buddy Hield with the #3 pick he will be fired....Boom!

Seriously, Hield is likely to be a very nice role player, but if I was a betting man I would definitely bet he never makes a single All-Star game.

JJ Redick seems like a fair ceiling for Hield.

JJ Redick doesn't get to the hole and finish like Hield. Reddick can't utilize his shooting to get a first step on his defender- his drives to the basket are always when he comes off a screen and curls to the middle from the left side, finishing on the right side of the basket.

Hield's got the ability to take his defender off the dribble when they over play him. Not only that, when he gets into the paint, he has the athleticism and body control to pump fake, switch hands, use the rim as protection or find an open shooter.

The only things they really share are the ability to come off screens and solid perimeter running/slashing, aswell a beautiful 3 point stroke- Hield is a far more advanced overall offensive player and will only get better.

I have never seen Redick split screens with a cross over dribble or take his man off the dribble and use a mid air up and under to finish with a reverse layup.

JJ Redick dominated college ball his senior year more so than Hield.  Hield had slightly higher shooting percentages, but Redick averaged better per 40 minute stats in points, assists and steals. Redick had better career numbers, and played against tougher competition.  Hield's only advantage was in rebounds, which belies his athletic advantage.

I have serious reservations about Hield's ability to beat NBA defenders off the dribble, though.  He's a better athlete, but only a marginally better ball handler.

Hield has a very high floor, but low ceiling, similar to Redick.  Not a perfect comparison, but very similar likely impact.

[chambers]

I'm calling it....if Danny Ainge drafts Buddy Hield with the #3 pick he will be fired....Boom!

Seriously, Hield is likely to be a very nice role player, but if I was a betting man I would definitely bet he never makes a single All-Star game.

JJ Redick seems like a fair ceiling for Hield.

JJ Redick doesn't get to the hole and finish like Hield. Reddick can't utilize his shooting to get a first step on his defender- his drives to the basket are always when he comes off a screen and curls to the middle from the left side, finishing on the right side of the basket.

Hield's got the ability to take his defender off the dribble when they over play him. Not only that, when he gets into the paint, he has the athleticism and body control to pump fake, switch hands, use the rim as protection or find an open shooter.

The only things they really share are the ability to come off screens and solid perimeter running/slashing, aswell a beautiful 3 point stroke- Hield is a far more advanced overall offensive player and will only get better.

I have never seen Redick split screens with a cross over dribble or take his man off the dribble and use a mid air up and under to finish with a reverse layup.

JJ Redick dominated college ball his senior year more so than Hield.  Hield had slightly higher shooting percentages, but Redick averaged better per 40 minute stats in points, assists and steals. Redick had better career numbers, and played against tougher competition.  Hield's only advantage was in rebounds, which belies his athletic advantage.

I have serious reservations about Hield's ability to beat NBA defenders off the dribble, though.  He's a better athlete, but only a marginally better ball handler.

Hield has a very high floor, but low ceiling, similar to Redick.  Not a perfect comparison, but very similar likely impact.

I just don't think you can compare a slasher/screen runner like Redick to a guy that can do everything that Redick can do at an elite level, but also has further elements to his offensive game.

Hield is a better athlete, has better handles, has better finishing ability around the rim and has far superior offensive anticipation. They are completely different players on offense.

Redick has never had, and never will have, the ability to punish 1v1 defenders like Hield can.
Hield doesn't have the fastest first step, but he can stop on a dime, step back, hesitate and exploit defenders in a way that Redick could only dream of.

Redick's offensive game is like a poor man's Buddy Hield. Redick is a one dimensional guy that has become an elite role player.
Hield is multi dimensional offensive player that gets way too much emphasis put on his shooting because he's such a great shooter.

Buddy Hield's ceiling is a James Harden type overall scorer that lulls defenders to sleep and punishes them for overplaying.
JJ Redick is a slasher that scores by coming off screens.

Hield has the ability to play both styles of basketball and shouldn't be cornered into one 'type' of player or the other.

Truly great scorers get theirs in multiple ways- and that's what Hield does.

[KGs Knee]

Hield doesn't really have a better handle though.  He's just a better athlete.  But it won't matter in the NBA.

Thinking Hield will be more than a very good role player is flawed thinking.

[mctyson]

Buddy Hield is the guy.

I actually really like this idea.

If I were Danny, my first step would be to trade the #3 for Okafor.  That's a straight up trade and should be a no-brainer for Philly.

My next step would be exactly as outlined in this thread. I want Hield regardless.  But you don't have to draft him #3.  He might be available later.  Get him, and get another pick if necessary.

[Future Celtics Owner]

(1) I really just don't see the point of trading down a slot to pick up another first that we won't be able to use or trade for anything meaningful

Not meaningful? Huh? First of all, letting PHO move from 4 to 3 would likely mean a swap of 23 for 13. And having 16 and 13 then allows Danny to trade up to #10 or so. That's a pretty blasted meaningful draft pick.

(2) To me Hield's best case scenario is something along the lines of a J.R. Smith / Wes Matthews type shooting guard.  That's pretty nice, and the Celts could use a guy like that, but not the sort of player who will take the Celts to another level.

Talent evaluation is not your strong suit.

Matthews we can compare easily since both he and Hield came out of college at roughly the same age and are roughly the same size. Hield is clearly a better physical prospect but let's look at their college production their senior year. In his last year of college Matthews averaged 18ppg, shooting 51.7% from 2, 37% from 3 and a TS of 60%. Hield averaged 25ppg, 55% from 2, 45% from 3 and a TS of 66%. In a nutshell Hield is a far, far better player at this stage of his career than Matthews was. There is no evidence whatsoever that getting to Matthews level would be Hield's "best case. In fact the opposite is true. Matthews is Hield's floor, not ceiling.

As for comparing him with JR Smith, that's a bit odd. Beyond being roughly the same size there's nothing to compare. JR Smith came out of High School and wasn't known as a shooter but as a raw athlete. And while Smith has become quite a decent shooter in his career, none of his stats come anywhere close to Hield's. Smith is also known as a knucklehead with an exceptionally low basketball IQ while Hield is known as a good character guy who is a leader and a gym rat.

Someone will impress in the pre-draft workouts but right now I'm with the OP - Hield is my binkie for the #3 pick. The guy has gotten better every year and can do the one thing that the Cs really need - putting the ball in the basket consistently. He also seems to be a good character guy. I also don't buy this "22 year olds can't develop into superstars" line of rhetoric. It's all a matter of their development at their age and it's impossible to deny that Hield produced at an exceptionally high - almost impossibly high - level last year for a major college program.

yeah, 22 year olds never become superstars.  22-year old rookies like Larry Bird and Kevin Mchale.  what a couple of wasted picks on scrubs   

I'm with PHO.
Why the hell would we do any of that. Hield would be fine on our team if we drafted him.....BUT it does not add sufficient value compared to other moves.

BTW. If you like Hield and the type of player he MAY be, give Allen Crabbe a look.  Crabbe is only 2 years older than Hield, 6'5.25'' w/o shoes and almost 6'7'' with shoes, 6'11.25'' wingspan, 8'8'' standing reach.
Crabbe is a RFA though, but signing him gets us
a) a better/proven Hieldtype player that is great on D
b) we keep assets to make trades
c) WE GET TO USE THE PICK TO DRAFT OR TRADE
D)need to make a decision on AB and Smart


ORRRRR we could just draft Caris Levert in the 2nd round lol, but  I want to draft Levert.

[mr. dee]

Hield doesn't really have a better handle though.  He's just a better athlete.  But it won't matter in the NBA.

Thinking Hield will be more than a very good role player is flawed thinking.

Same thing people said about Curry and Kawhi 

[chambers]

Hield doesn't really have a better handle though.  He's just a better athlete.  But it won't matter in the NBA.

Thinking Hield will be more than a very good role player is flawed thinking.

You haven't watched enough of Hield if you don't think he has the better handle-his handle is is vastly superior to Redick's. Hield takes a first step to get his defender off balance and moving, then brings the ball back behind him for a fadeaway. He splits  defenders in the pick and roll very well.
Anyway, we are going around in circles. You think Hield will be a role player, I think he has star potential. Fair enough.

[passesofftodj]

I'm calling it....if Danny Ainge drafts Buddy Hield with the #3 pick he will be fired....Boom!

Seriously, Hield is likely to be a very nice role player, but if I was a betting man I would definitely bet he never makes a single All-Star game.

JJ Redick seems like a fair ceiling for Hield.

JJ Redick doesn't get to the hole and finish like Hield. Reddick can't utilize his shooting to get a first step on his defender- his drives to the basket are always when he comes off a screen and curls to the middle from the left side, finishing on the right side of the basket.

Hield's got the ability to take his defender off the dribble when they over play him. Not only that, when he gets into the paint, he has the athleticism and body control to pump fake, switch hands, use the rim as protection or find an open shooter.

The only things they really share are the ability to come off screens and solid perimeter running/slashing, aswell a beautiful 3 point stroke- Hield is a far more advanced overall offensive player and will only get better.

I have never seen Redick split screens with a cross over dribble or take his man off the dribble and use a mid air up and under to finish with a reverse layup.

JJ Redick dominated college ball his senior year more so than Hield.  Hield had slightly higher shooting percentages, but Redick averaged better per 40 minute stats in points, assists and steals. Redick had better career numbers, and played against tougher competition.  Hield's only advantage was in rebounds, which belies his athletic advantage.

I have serious reservations about Hield's ability to beat NBA defenders off the dribble, though.  He's a better athlete, but only a marginally better ball handler.

Hield has a very high floor, but low ceiling, similar to Redick.  Not a perfect comparison, but very similar likely impact.

This.  TP. 

Comparing Hield to Harden, better than Klay, combo Pierce/Ray Allen?  That is fairly ridiculous.  A combo of Pierce and Allen would be one of the absolute best players of all time.  I saw little that leads me to believe his ceiling is that of Simmons or Dunn, much less one of the greatest ever. 

I think he is going to have a tough time getting off the shots in the NBA that he got off in college, where he was absolutely THE focal point of his offense.  I am not sold on his speed and skill in getting to the basket and finishing at the NBA level.

He projects as a more athletic Reddick, especially if on the right team.  That would be a heck of a player.  I think he will struggle sometimes on D.  I think he will rebound well for his position and be a player who shoots solidly from 3 with a creative PG, possible Crawford-ish 6th man of the year type.  I think he could occasionally take over games on offense.

I don't see the evidence for probable extreme greatness.  I do see it in Dunn (assuming no health or attitude issues - a big assumption).  I think Murray's ceiling is higher also.  The stats are not as useful as some make out as there are countless great college scorers who could not play in the NBA who had great stats.

That all said, I do think he offers something the Celtics need and fits the team and I would rather Hield than Brown...I just think we should be aiming at a higher ceiling.

[Sixth Man]

Hield doesn't really have a better handle though.  He's just a better athlete.  But it won't matter in the NBA.

Thinking Hield will be more than a very good role player is flawed thinking.

Same thing people said about Curry and Kawhi 

Wasn't Curry a #7 overall selection?  Terrible ankles, slight build, nonexistent defender, one-trick pony who may struggle against truly elite talent coming from small school.  Little potential as a PG/creator and at best, a high-level role player eventually in the NBA.  Ha, ha, ha!  None of these young lads are Michael Jordan coming out of college, but a few will take quantum leaps in their development at some point, which is what all franchises hope for from their draftees. 

High-character guys with suberp work-ethic demonstrated by season-to-season improvements on weaknesses in their skill sets may often prove to be wiser investments than more physically gifted (and younger) prospects with different mindsets. 

[PaulP34]

Buddy Heild has more upside then anyone in the draft. Even Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. Only difference between Heild and the top two are positions. Guards are a dime a dozen and power forwards at that level can be treasures but Buddy Heild is a no miss kind of player. He is going to be a top 10 player in the NBA in two years flat. I value Buddy Heild at #3 as a must draft guy. If the Suns swap picks with us and they draft Buddy Heild at 3 we just missed out on a top prospect. Draft Buddy Heild at #3 he's going to be worth every cent 👍

[chambers]

I think what stands out about Buddy and reminds people of James Harden is the way he processes the game and reacts to the defense.

Hield seems to be playing the game in slow motion. He's going at one pace and everyone else is going through the motions. There's a fluidity to his athleticism that highlights his IQ and anticipation.

The great players have this 'slow mo' aura about them and to me, Buddy is one of those guys.

He's only just started to bloom aswell. His rise has been so quick and when you combine his confidence,  shooting ability and IQ with a truly hall of fame work ethic you have a recipe for something that has a good shot at becoming great.

People say he's reached his ceiling but to me he's only just scratched the surface. Why can't he keep getting better?  Because he's 22? That's bogus to me.

[Monkhouse]

I think what stands out about Buddy and reminds people of James Harden is the way he processes the game and reacts to the defense.

Hield seems to be playing the game in slow motion. He's going at one pace and everyone else is going through the motions. There's a fluidity to his athleticism that highlights his IQ and anticipation.

The great players have this 'slow mo' aura about them and to me, Buddy is one of those guys.

He's only just started to bloom aswell. His rise has been so quick and when you combine his confidence,  shooting ability and IQ with a truly hall of fame work ethic you have a recipe for something that has a good shot at becoming great.

People say he's reached his ceiling but to me he's only just scratched the surface. Why can't he keep getting better?  Because he's 22? That's bogus to me.

I think the huge difference is James Harden already had great ball handling in college, great court vision, whereas Hield has slowly started to have slightly above average handles. I'm not that impressed with Hield. I don't think Hield is going to be able to break down the defenses like he once did in NCAA, compared to the NBA.

But I will say Hield eerily reminds me of Harden, just based on how they play that 'slow mo,' type of style as you mentioned. But how much better can he get? His height isn't going to get any bigger, doesn't jump out athletically, while his defense still needs plenty of work.

I'm just hoping that if we pick Hield, its because he was the BPA. I'm not 100% convinced Hield will be this great of a shooter/scorer, due to his sudden rise in stock by one great year. If Hield had done this for more than one year, I would surely be more okay with taking him, but there are many issues or concerns in my book.

Also people are mentioning how similar he is to JJ Reddick, but I digress. Hield has better handles, and I think he'll be a far more competent offensive scorer, rather than a catch and shoot through ball screen type of player that Reddick is well known for.

Hield doesn't really have a better handle though.  He's just a better athlete.  But it won't matter in the NBA.

Thinking Hield will be more than a very good role player is flawed thinking.

Same thing people said about Curry and Kawhi 

Wasn't Curry a #7 overall selection?  Terrible ankles, slight build, nonexistent defender, one-trick pony who may struggle against truly elite talent coming from small school.  Little potential as a PG/creator and at best, a high-level role player eventually in the NBA.  Ha, ha, ha!  None of these young lads are Michael Jordan coming out of college, but a few will take quantum leaps in their development at some point, which is what all franchises hope for from their draftees. 

High-character guys with suberp work-ethic demonstrated by season-to-season improvements on weaknesses in their skill sets may often prove to be wiser investments than more physically gifted (and younger) prospects with different mindsets.

No one. No one, and I mean, no one; could've predicted that Curry would be this good.

As for the bolded part, I definitely agree. I love hard working and hustle players, but 9 times out of 10, if you got a player that has a mix of both, with physical gifts, a smart but troubled mindset, (like Rajon Rondo,) I'll take that player over the hustle on both ends, and hard working player any time of the day.

You can't teach ethic and hard work, but being physically gifted can help make up for most deficiencies.

[budMovin]

Buddy Heild has more upside then anyone in the draft. Even Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram. Only difference between Heild and the top two are positions. Guards are a dime a dozen and power forwards at that level can be treasures but Buddy Heild is a no miss kind of player. He is going to be a top 10 player in the NBA in two years flat. I value Buddy Heild at #3 as a must draft guy. If the Suns swap picks with us and they draft Buddy Heild at 3 we just missed out on a top prospect. Draft Buddy Heild at #3 he's going to be worth every cent 👍

A senior who wasn't even considered a 1st rounder 6 months ago does not have the highest upside in this draft or any other draft for that matter. I wouldn't be mad if we drafted him at 3, but he would be drafted because he is a safe pick, not because of upside.

[alldaboston]

I love hard working and hustle players, but 9 times out of 10, if you got a player that has a mix of both, with physical gifts, a smart but troubled mindset, (like Rajon Rondo,) I'll take that player over the hustle on both ends, and hard working player any time of the day.

You can't teach ethic and hard work, but being physically gifted can help make up for most deficiencies.

Perfect statement. Couldn't agree more. Ultimately, talent and gifts win out. Not hard work.
TP