Last year was the first time in 11 years that the team with the worst overall record landed the No. 1 overall pick. The team with the second-worst record hasn’t won the lottery since the 76ers snatched up Allen Iverson in 1996. That’s 20 years ago, and over those 20 years the team with the worst record has only won the lottery three times. That’s the same number of wins as the fifth-worst record. Meanwhile the seventh- and ninth-worst records have each won twice. The fourth-, sixth- and eighth-worst records have each won once. The third-worst record has won six times over the last 20 years. That’s basically a dynasty. And while you might look at that and think “Ooh, the third-best odds? The Celtics have the third-best odds! This is good.” — it doesn’t matter. The lottery doesn’t care about history. It has no memory. There’s no karma. It’s all random. And that’s the worst, especially in this media climate.
On Wednesday, Ainge will be a genius or a fool and for no other reason than “because” — because four consecutive ping-pong balls were sucked into a plastic tube. Because he got lucky, or unlucky. And that’s too bad. And there’s probably no stopping it. There will be takes and they will be blazing.
In 1995, the Minnesota Timberwolves had the third-worst record, but were knocked down to No. 5 in the lottery. Then they watched three power forwards (Joe Smith, Antonio McDyess and Rasheed Wallace) plus Jerry Stackhouse fall off the board before Kevin Garnett fell into their laps. In 1998, the Clippers had the third-worst record, won the lottery and drafted Michael Olowokandi. That same year, the Raptors had the second-worst record, fell to fourth in the lottery, drafted Antawn Jamison and flipped him straight up for Vince Carter.
In 2003, the Pistons jumped from sixth in the lottery to second in the draft and took Darko Milicic over Carmelo Anthony, Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade. In 2005, the Hornets fell from second to fourth and watched Andrew Bogut, Marvin Williams and Deron Williams disappear and leave them with stuck with Chris Paul.
In 2006, the Blazers had the worst record in the NBA and then the worst luck in the lottery. Andrea Bargnani went first overall on draft day, meanwhile Portland used the No. 4 pick on Tyrus Thomas and then traded him for LaMarcus Aldridge. The next year, the Blazers had the seventh-worst record and the won the most important NBA Lottery since LeBron. Then they drafted Greg Oden.
In 2008, the Sonics/Thunder fell from second in the lottery to fourth in the draft and grabbed Russell Westbrook. In 2009, the Grizzlies jumped from sixth to second and landed Hasheem Thabeet. In 2010, the Kings fell from third to fifth and found DeMarcus Cousins.
OK, finally let’s bring it back to the last time the Celtics found themselves where they are right now, among the three teams with the best chance to win the top pick in a draft that features two clear cut stars; when for one brief moment Ainge and Co. were leaning hard on luck to help turn their franchise around and luck chose to slap them hard across the face with a spike-studded leather glove. You remember how that felt. You remember the things that you said. You remember all the obituaries written that next morning.
And you remember what happened on draft lottery night in 2007. You remember what happened the rest of that offseason. You remember that confetti-filled scene at the Garden, 13 months after bottoming out, when the Celtics were suddenly on top of the world.
So you know that while the ping-pong balls might change the course of NBA history on Tuesday night, they won’t change the Celtics’ ability to re-write it.
https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-celtics/2016/05/16/lottery-luck-danny-ainge-makes
Topic: Lottery retrospective perspective (Read 2857 times)