Why do so many of us anticipate acquiring the #4-6 pick or higher?

[Greyman]

The lowest the Nets pick can go is 6. If we don't get 1, 2 or 3 you need Lakers and/or Philly to be in there to miss 6. If the first three picks go to teams who finished higher than Brooklyn we will have pick 6. Or at least that is how I understand it.

[DavorCroatiaFan]

Yeah the real prize is #1 and #2. I don't think there is a lot of difference between #3, #4, #5 and #6.
Actually...if we miss #1 or #2 i wouldn't mind getting #5 or #6 because getting #5 or #6 would mean that f...... Fakers lost their pick

[Eja117]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.

Because I've watched the Celtics in the lottery before

[Celtics4ever]

History of rotten luck...

[Thruthelookingglass]

History of rotten luck...

Luck?  You are less cynical than I . . .

[footey]

Duncan is retiring, right ?

It would be fitting if right after Duncan played his last game in an illustrious career with 5 championships, the Celtics finally landed the #1 pick.

It would be if the next Tim Duncan was in this draft.

[Androslav]

Why?
I think it is cause our clover logo has 3 instead 4 leaves.

[TA9]

Personally, because of our bad lottery luck. Furthermore, I always end up between #4 and #6 when I play with the ESPN Draft Simulator

[Androslav]

I just simulated lottery 82 times
1st x 10 times
2nd x 9 times
3rd x 18 times
4th x 18 times
5th x 24 times
6th x 2 times
That's 3,4878 on average
I have been using Tankathons simulator

[PaulP34]

Mathematically, there is something like a 46% chance of the Celtics winning picks 1-3. And, mathematically there is a slightly greater chance of landing a 4-6 or a later pick.

However, in my mind and I’m sure in the minds of many other CBers, we feel those are not the real odds.

The real odds are more like this:

#1 pick = Less than winning the Powerball 3X in one month.
#2 pick = 2.5% (I’m not a total pessimist.)
#3 pick = 7.5%
#4 pick = 30%
#5 pick = 30%
#6 pick = 20%
#7 pick and higher = 10%

Yes, I know this is a defeatist attitude. It’s just the way I feel. Seems many of us are hoping for the best, yet expecting the worst. Of course, there are others of you who are more realistic and feel the mathematical odds will play out.

Wish this lottery would begin to end the misery.

So my chances of winning the powerball 3 times in a month are over 15.6%??

[dang] I better buy some tickets.

😂👏👏👏👏

[PaulP34]

I just simulated lottery 82 times
1st x 10 times
2nd x 9 times
3rd x 18 times
4th x 18 times
5th x 24 times
6th x 2 times
That's 3,4878 on average
I have been using Tankathons simulator

OK so there are a few probabilities here.

1- we are not getting either the #2 or #6 picks.
2- most likely gonna have to settle for the 5th pick (REALITY)
3- higher chance at the 3rd or 4th pick then #1 overall.
4- winning the #1 overall would truly be equal to hitting the powerball.

[Snakehead]

Low expectations.

[Androslav]

Satisfaction is the function of expectation and the final result.
We just have to put our expectations low enough and we will definitely be satisfied.
With that said I think the 5th (1st) pick is fine.

[jpotter33]

Honestly, I'm just ready for this dang lottery to be done and over with so I can stop stressing about it. I still think it's virtually a certainty that we trade any pick from 3 down, with picks two and one being just a little less likely to trade, though I think it ultimately takes a whopper of a package to trade the number one pick.

[TBreezy]

I just simulated lottery 82 times
1st x 10 times
2nd x 9 times
3rd x 18 times
4th x 18 times
5th x 24 times
6th x 2 times
That's 3,4878 on average
I have been using Tankathons simulator

OK so there are a few probabilities here.

1- we are not getting either the #2 or #6 picks.
2- most likely gonna have to settle for the 5th pick (REALITY)
3- higher chance at the 3rd or 4th pick then #1 overall.
4- winning the #1 overall would truly be equal to hitting the powerball.

Sure if you want to isolate any one spot, but that is not really thee way to value a pick. You want to look at the value (or percentage) of being at least as good as the 3rd pick - not exactly the 3rd.  Looking at this another way  (based on the above simulation)

1: 12%
>= 2: 23%
>= 3: 45%
>= 4: 67%
>= 5 :97%
>= 6: 100%

So yeah, while the 5th spot has the highest odds of any one spot (29%) it is still more likely that we end up with a top 2 pick than the number 5. 

Models and simulations don't mean much after the dice are thrown.  According to the above it is very unlikely we end up with the 6th pick (~3%) but chance is chance.