Will we even make the playoffs next year?

[Smart457]

Just as an example, Durant scored 20.3 ppg his rookie season.  You seriously think that cost the Thunder (back then Seattle Supersonics) some games because they 'played the rookie'?

Excellent point. A lot of guys here say playing a Simmons or an Ingram is gonna hurt us in the short term...how? There's a reason they're a top pick. They're gonna be NBA contributors. If anything, both of these guys serve a huge need for us. It'd only help

Durant had a horrible shot selection his first couple of years.

There are very few guys who can step in their first year and have a positive impact on their team.

Maybe if we end up with the 5th pick and select Hield. I could see a 4 year senior helping us. Possibly.

[alldaboston]

Just as an example, Durant scored 20.3 ppg his rookie season.  You seriously think that cost the Thunder (back then Seattle Supersonics) some games because they 'played the rookie'?

Excellent point. A lot of guys here say playing a Simmons or an Ingram is gonna hurt us in the short term...how? There's a reason they're a top pick. They're gonna be NBA contributors. If anything, both of these guys serve a huge need for us. It'd only help

Durant had a horrible shot selection his first couple of years.

There are very few guys who can step in their first year and have a positive impact on their team.

Maybe if we end up with the 5th pick and select Hield. I could see a 4 year senior helping us. Possibly.

Most top guys who are stepping into their first year are stepping into a bad team most likely, since not everyone has the luxury we have. Getting an Ingram would help us because we aren't expecting him to come in and dominate right away. We are in a good position right now and he can help us out without trying to do too much.

[PhoSita]

the team was largely injury free last year. this year they are not. i dont see the predictive comparison here.

Eh, everybody deals with injuries.

If the difference between competing in a playoff series and not even having a chance is an injury to a decent role player like Avery Bradley or Kelly Olynyk, I think that tells you where the team stands with this group of players.

It's not like the Celts have had some crazy run of major injuries in the last three weeks.  Teams go through stretches where at least a few of their guys are banged up.  The Celts are unlucky because it happened now.  But maybe they would be the seventh or eighth seed if it had happened earlier in the regular season.


The point is, I don't believe that we should just expect that if we bring the same basic group back next season, they're going to be much different than this year -- a nice team with a chance at making it past the first round if everything goes right (matchups, health, shots falling).

[Moranis]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

Is a top 5 pick not worth a few wins? Maybe if we get Bender and he is absolutely just not ready to contribute. However, you have to figure the other options Hield, Dunn, Simmons, Ingram would be at least solid rotation players as rookies. Also dismissing any improvement from Smart, KO, Crowder, Rozier, Mickey etc as not being enough to offset some improvement from crappy teams or a few injuries seems clearly pessimistic.

Probably not worth much next year.  Rookies are rarely ready to play and for them to play they have to usurp players getting those minutes.  I mean how many minutes is Hield going to get behind Thomas, Bradley, and Smart and that doesn't even account for Turner.  A top 5 pick is much more about the future than next year.  May be worth a win or two, but that is about it. 

[PaulP34]

We are going to the Finals next year. Just watch what happens this off season. Boston will be the most feared team in the NBA. I have faith in Danny boy. Before game 1 of next season we r going to be saying, Celtics are going all the way this year just like we did in 07 💪👍

[greece66]

the team was largely injury free last year. this year they are not. i dont see the predictive comparison here.

Eh, everybody deals with injuries.

If the difference between competing in a playoff series and not even having a chance is an injury to a decent role player like Avery Bradley or Kelly Olynyk, I think that tells you where the team stands with this group of players.

It's not like the Celts have had some crazy run of major injuries in the last three weeks.  Teams go through stretches where at least a few of their guys are banged up.  The Celts are unlucky because it happened now.  But maybe they would be the seventh or eighth seed if it had happened earlier in the regular season.


The point is, I don't believe that we should just expect that if we bring the same basic group back next season, they're going to be much different than this year -- a nice team with a chance at making it past the first round if everything goes right (matchups, health, shots falling).

Our roster is weak we all know that. But I still think your comment is a bit unfair. AB is a lot more than a decent role player - he is one of the best defensive guards in the League. Crowder is not at 100% (probably Smart is not either); and Kelly is still recovering. Our situation is pretty similar to the Mavs: literally depleted.

Having said this, we would probably still have lost the series against ATL because they have more elite players than we do: you are right that we are not ready to face experienced teams like ATL in the playoffs.

 But (and this is my key point) it doesn't even matter. We have good players on excellent contracts (IT, Crowder, AB), we have some young talent (although I must admit JRHunter and Young were big disappointments), we have the cap space and we have a ****load of picks.

This team was expected by most to barely make the playoffs this season, and we almost made it to the 3rd seed; I really don't see the reason for the pessimism.

[PhoSita]

 But (and this is my key point) it doesn't even matter. We have good players on excellent contracts (IT, Crowder, AB), we have some young talent (although I must admit JRHunter and Young were big disappointments), we have the cap space and we have a ****load of picks.

This team was expected by most to barely make the playoffs this season, and we almost made it to the 3rd seed; I really don't see the reason for the pessimism.

I agree, and I'm not sure what pessimism you're talking about.  To be clear, my response to the OP was that I would expect this team to make the playoffs again if the same basic group comes back.  They've shown more than enough for us all to believe that, barring a major injury to Isaiah, they'll get to the playoffs.


My thing is -- OK, so what?  If the same group plus, say, Jaylen Brown, comes back next year, I think we can expect basically the same thing.  40-50 wins, maybe more if everything breaks in favor of the Celts, and a puncher's chance at winning a first round series. 

That's not enough for me.  It may be that FIREWORKS don't happen this summer.  If they don't, I'd like to see the team move on from some of these guys -- Turner, Sullinger, Amir, Zeller -- and explore creative options via trade / free agency to audition some different faces. 

We've got a lot of nice but not great players on this team.  This is a nice but not great team with some glaring weaknesses.  I want to see an effort to address that, and maybe uncover a diamond in the rough or two, rather than sticking with known quantities.

I'd draw a comparison to the Raptors, who almost entirely revamped their bench with Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and Luis Scola, along with the addition of Demarre Carroll to their starting lineup, and it's worked out pretty well for them.


I just don't believe in saying "Welp, this team is young, they had some bad luck in the playoffs after a nice season, if we can't trade for a superstar let's just bring the gang back and do this all over again."

Especially when we know that if Ainge can't trade for a superstar, that probably means we've got another 2-3 rookies (at least) sitting on the bench.

[Evantime34]

 But (and this is my key point) it doesn't even matter. We have good players on excellent contracts (IT, Crowder, AB), we have some young talent (although I must admit JRHunter and Young were big disappointments), we have the cap space and we have a ****load of picks.

This team was expected by most to barely make the playoffs this season, and we almost made it to the 3rd seed; I really don't see the reason for the pessimism.

I agree, and I'm not sure what pessimism you're talking about.  To be clear, my response to the OP was that I would expect this team to make the playoffs again if the same basic group comes back.  They've shown more than enough for us all to believe that, barring a major injury to Isaiah, they'll get to the playoffs.


My thing is -- OK, so what?  If the same group plus, say, Jaylen Brown, comes back next year, I think we can expect basically the same thing.  40-50 wins, maybe more if everything breaks in favor of the Celts, and a puncher's chance at winning a first round series. 

That's not enough for me.  It may be that FIREWORKS don't happen this summer.  If they don't, I'd like to see the team move on from some of these guys -- Turner, Sullinger, Amir, Zeller -- and explore creative options via trade / free agency to audition some different faces. 

We've got a lot of nice but not great players on this team.  This is a nice but not great team with some glaring weaknesses.  I want to see an effort to address that, and maybe uncover a diamond in the rough or two, rather than sticking with known quantities.

I'd draw a comparison to the Raptors, who almost entirely revamped their bench with Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo, and Luis Scola, along with the addition of Demarre Carroll to their starting lineup, and it's worked out pretty well for them.


I just don't believe in saying "Welp, this team is young, they had some bad luck in the playoffs after a nice season, if we can't trade for a superstar let's just bring the gang back and do this all over again."

Especially when we know that if Ainge can't trade for a superstar, that probably means we've got another 2-3 rookies (at least) sitting on the bench.

If we can't get a superstar I think the most important thing is to stay young and flexible. Ainge can try all he wants, but if no superstar is getting traded all he can do is hoard his assets until a star becomes available.

If no superstar can be had I'd move on from Holland, Sully, and Zeller. I'd move on from Turner if his price is too high (although I think that could cost us wins next year). See if you can upgrade Amir or Jerebko's spot but if not bring them back for one year to retain flexibility. ReplaceHolland and Zeller with two rookies, bring in a free agent big to replace Sully and then replace a guy like Jerebko with a player like Dudley and then re-sign Turner. I'd consider replacing 4 players essentially bringing the band back together.

[Roy H.]

We have a good core, a good coach, a ton of flexibility and a great draft pick. Missing the playoffs isn't something I'm worried about.

[celticsclay]

Just as an example, Durant scored 20.3 ppg his rookie season.  You seriously think that cost the Thunder (back then Seattle Supersonics) some games because they 'played the rookie'?

Excellent point. A lot of guys here say playing a Simmons or an Ingram is gonna hurt us in the short term...how? There's a reason they're a top pick. They're gonna be NBA contributors. If anything, both of these guys serve a huge need for us. It'd only help

Durant had a horrible shot selection his first couple of years.

There are very few guys who can step in their first year and have a positive impact on their team.

Maybe if we end up with the 5th pick and select Hield. I could see a 4 year senior helping us. Possibly.

I mean if you look at the Eastern Conference  playoffs teams this season

Turner
Winslow
Powell
Josh Richardson
Stanley Johnson

Have all helped win a few games for playoffs teams (most even started some games)
To a much smaller extent, you could say guys like Rozier and Kaminsky are
at least rotation players. The only teams really not playing a rookie any minutes in the
east is Cleveland and Atlanta (who picked very very late in the draft).

You then look at the lottery teams and RHJ, Porzingas and Portis all had positive impacts.
I think the only reason we don't really think of top 5 picks contributing to their teams that make the playoffs, is usually players being drafted that high don't go to teams already in the playoffs.
Simmons, Hield, Ingram, Dunn all would definitely be rotation players next year and even as rookies would be upgrades over the end of our rotation and help us win a few games.

[slamtheking]

I was debating whether we will even make the playoffs next year with a friend and we came to the conclusion that it's a possibility we won't. There are some what ifs so I'm not too worried but it does concern me that we could have gotten some decent draft picks but instead went for the playoffs the last two years. Maybe we have Winslow if we missed last year's playoffs and we have Hield with this years and the Nets pick.

The scenario we agreed on was:

Horford resigning with Hawks - seems unlikely but Hawks want to. If they compete with Cavs I think they keep the team together.

Derozen staying with Toronto - good possibility

Wizards getting Durant or Bulls improving - somewhat unlikely but could happen.

Pacers and Pistons making the next step - Likely

Celtics drafting Ingram - you have to play the rookie. He will ultimately cost us wins in the short term.

Seems like a good possibility that the Celtics will be gunning for the last two playoff spots with Miami and the Hornets.

So how about some early predictions. Anyone with a weak stomach and still invested in this current playoff push can just ignore the post.

fair question.

After last year, I predicted that the C's would just miss the playoffs and come in 9th in the East this year --  a tad bit off on that prediction.
Based that on the following:
- figured the 6 teams that finished better than us would do so again.
- figured Miami and Indy would be better than last year and also be better than us.
--> Didn't figure for Milwaukee and Washington to melt down this year.  Chicago either  was right about Miami and Indy improving enough to make the playoffs.  figured Detroit to improve as well but not to make the playoffs -- missed on that.

Keeping that in mind and not knowing what will happen in the draft or free agency, I think this is the potential playoff scenario in the East next year.

Assuming no significant free agent departures or signings:
In the playoffs: Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta, Detroit, Miami (assuming Bosh healthy), Indiana, Chicago (assuming Butler kept), Bucks.  I think it's a close call with Bucks, C's, Wiz for that last spot. 

My reasoning is that C's are still a team of role players without some trades or major FA signing.  AB and Crowder have played about as well as they could.  KO and Sully seem to have developed to close to their ceilings as well.  Smart hasn't shown enough development on O.  Turner may leave as a FA.  Rookies haven't looked like world-beaters but have looked like they could be solid role players in time.  Amir and JJ are journeymen.  IT may have made the all-star team but he's not a top-level player that can put a team on his back and carry them.  He's a good complementary player to go with a superstar or a couple of all-stars.

Wash and Bucks had horrible seasons that did not match their roster talent -- particularly Milwaukee.  Add in the rest of the East figures to also improve with their highly-drafted players from the past couple of drafts and the East will be even tougher next year.

of course this all goes out the window if the C's get a top 2 pick in the draft and/or major players change teams either in free agency or trades.

[celticsclay]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

Is a top 5 pick not worth a few wins? Maybe if we get Bender and he is absolutely just not ready to contribute. However, you have to figure the other options Hield, Dunn, Simmons, Ingram would be at least solid rotation players as rookies. Also dismissing any improvement from Smart, KO, Crowder, Rozier, Mickey etc as not being enough to offset some improvement from crappy teams or a few injuries seems clearly pessimistic.

Probably not worth much next year.  Rookies are rarely ready to play and for them to play they have to usurp players getting those minutes.  I mean how many minutes is Hield going to get behind Thomas, Bradley, and Smart and that doesn't even account for Turner.  A top 5 pick is much more about the future than next year.  May be worth a win or two, but that is about it.

You do realize that Winslow, Stanley Johnson and Myles turner are all already playing significant minutes for teams in the playoffs this year right? Josh Richardson and Normal Powell probably have a smaller impact, but have both also started at times and still solidly in the rotation. That is half the playoff field. None of these guys were top 5 picks.

[Smart457]

I was debating whether we will even make the playoffs next year with a friend and we came to the conclusion that it's a possibility we won't. There are some what ifs so I'm not too worried but it does concern me that we could have gotten some decent draft picks but instead went for the playoffs the last two years. Maybe we have Winslow if we missed last year's playoffs and we have Hield with this years and the Nets pick.

The scenario we agreed on was:

Horford resigning with Hawks - seems unlikely but Hawks want to. If they compete with Cavs I think they keep the team together.

Derozen staying with Toronto - good possibility

Wizards getting Durant or Bulls improving - somewhat unlikely but could happen.

Pacers and Pistons making the next step - Likely

Celtics drafting Ingram - you have to play the rookie. He will ultimately cost us wins in the short term.

Seems like a good possibility that the Celtics will be gunning for the last two playoff spots with Miami and the Hornets.

So how about some early predictions. Anyone with a weak stomach and still invested in this current playoff push can just ignore the post.

fair question.

After last year, I predicted that the C's would just miss the playoffs and come in 9th in the East this year --  a tad bit off on that prediction.
Based that on the following:
- figured the 6 teams that finished better than us would do so again.
- figured Miami and Indy would be better than last year and also be better than us.
--> Didn't figure for Milwaukee and Washington to melt down this year.  Chicago either  was right about Miami and Indy improving enough to make the playoffs.  figured Detroit to improve as well but not to make the playoffs -- missed on that.

Keeping that in mind and not knowing what will happen in the draft or free agency, I think this is the potential playoff scenario in the East next year.

Assuming no significant free agent departures or signings:
In the playoffs: Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta, Detroit, Miami (assuming Bosh healthy), Indiana, Chicago (assuming Butler kept), Bucks.  I think it's a close call with Bucks, C's, Wiz for that last spot. 

My reasoning is that C's are still a team of role players without some trades or major FA signing.  AB and Crowder have played about as well as they could.  KO and Sully seem to have developed to close to their ceilings as well.  Smart hasn't shown enough development on O.  Turner may leave as a FA.  Rookies haven't looked like world-beaters but have looked like they could be solid role players in time.  Amir and JJ are journeymen.  IT may have made the all-star team but he's not a top-level player that can put a team on his back and carry them.  He's a good complementary player to go with a superstar or a couple of all-stars.

Wash and Bucks had horrible seasons that did not match their roster talent -- particularly Milwaukee.  Add in the rest of the East figures to also improve with their highly-drafted players from the past couple of drafts and the East will be even tougher next year.

of course this all goes out the window if the C's get a top 2 pick in the draft and/or major players change teams either in free agency or trades.

Good post. I forgot about the Bucks. If they can get a point guard, they could really make a big leap next year.

The Wizards might be better just from getting a new coach.

I also agree with you regarding the talent we had. I was convinced we found a star in Crowder but it looks like he may had just been on a long heater. He doesn't have a natural looking shot so it shouldn't had surprised me that he's struggling but it did. Maybe he gets his game back. If he does I think my post is dumb. We were a completely different team when Crowder was balling.

[Moranis]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

Is a top 5 pick not worth a few wins? Maybe if we get Bender and he is absolutely just not ready to contribute. However, you have to figure the other options Hield, Dunn, Simmons, Ingram would be at least solid rotation players as rookies. Also dismissing any improvement from Smart, KO, Crowder, Rozier, Mickey etc as not being enough to offset some improvement from crappy teams or a few injuries seems clearly pessimistic.

Probably not worth much next year.  Rookies are rarely ready to play and for them to play they have to usurp players getting those minutes.  I mean how many minutes is Hield going to get behind Thomas, Bradley, and Smart and that doesn't even account for Turner.  A top 5 pick is much more about the future than next year.  May be worth a win or two, but that is about it.

You do realize that Winslow, Stanley Johnson and Myles turner are all already playing significant minutes for teams in the playoffs this year right? Josh Richardson and Normal Powell probably have a smaller impact, but have both also started at times and still solidly in the rotation. That is half the playoff field. None of these guys were top 5 picks.

Stanley Johnson's VORP on the season was -0.2.  In other words he was worse than an average replacement.  And while he has improved his playoff VORP to 0.0 (or average).  He has played 38 minutes in the two playoff games and while he might be annoying James, he has done nothing to slow him down (though is at least shooting well).

Turner had a VORP of -0.1.  So again worse than the average player.  He has gone to 0.1 for the playoffs.  Barely above an average player. 

Winslow had a positive VORP at 0.8.  Though the man he replaced for Miami, Deng, was 1.5 last year on a much worse overall team (due to injuries and acquisitions).  Not sure how Winslow is a positive to the wins given that. 

If you are relying on rookies to increase your win total, you will be relying on a losing proposition.  Now sure every once in awhile a monster of a rookie comes into the league and dramatically changes the win total of his team, but those guys are rare.  Even Simmons or Ingram won't do much because for them to get real minutes they would have to replace Crowder, Bradley, or Sullinger in the line-up.  You know three of Boston's four best players. 

[celticsclay]

The three worst teams in the Eastern Conference were in the Atlantic Division.  That is a bunch of extra games Boston got to play against the dredge of the conference.  You would have to think those teams all aren't going to be that bad. 

Boston was also pretty darn healthy.  Crowder's 73 games was the lowest total of the top 6 players.  Smart and KO were the next two and had 61 and 69 games respectively.  Jonas is basically 9th with 78 games.  No one else really matters much to the rotation.  You would also think that that sort of health is unlikely to happen again.

Assuming basically everyone is brought back (with the addition of a rookie or two), and without looking at any other factors, I think one could reasonably expect to be 3 to 5 wins worse as a result of injuries and not playing the 3 worst teams more games than everyone else.  Of course 3 to 5 wins worse is still probably a playoff team.

Is a top 5 pick not worth a few wins? Maybe if we get Bender and he is absolutely just not ready to contribute. However, you have to figure the other options Hield, Dunn, Simmons, Ingram would be at least solid rotation players as rookies. Also dismissing any improvement from Smart, KO, Crowder, Rozier, Mickey etc as not being enough to offset some improvement from crappy teams or a few injuries seems clearly pessimistic.

Probably not worth much next year.  Rookies are rarely ready to play and for them to play they have to usurp players getting those minutes.  I mean how many minutes is Hield going to get behind Thomas, Bradley, and Smart and that doesn't even account for Turner.  A top 5 pick is much more about the future than next year.  May be worth a win or two, but that is about it.

You do realize that Winslow, Stanley Johnson and Myles turner are all already playing significant minutes for teams in the playoffs this year right? Josh Richardson and Normal Powell probably have a smaller impact, but have both also started at times and still solidly in the rotation. That is half the playoff field. None of these guys were top 5 picks.

Stanley Johnson's VORP on the season was -0.2.  In other words he was worse than an average replacement.  And while he has improved his playoff VORP to 0.0 (or average).  He has played 38 minutes in the two playoff games and while he might be annoying James, he has done nothing to slow him down (though is at least shooting well).

Turner had a VORP of -0.1.  So again worse than the average player.  He has gone to 0.1 for the playoffs.  Barely above an average player. 

Winslow had a positive VORP at 0.8.  Though the man he replaced for Miami, Deng, was 1.5 last year on a much worse overall team (due to injuries and acquisitions).  Not sure how Winslow is a positive to the wins given that. 

If you are relying on rookies to increase your win total, you will be relying on a losing proposition.  Now sure every once in awhile a monster of a rookie comes into the league and dramatically changes the win total of his team, but those guys are rare.  Even Simmons or Ingram won't do much because for them to get real minutes they would have to replace Crowder, Bradley, or Sullinger in the line-up.  You know three of Boston's four best players.

Not to sound all Charles Barkley on you but this VORP stat doesn't really seem to hold a water beyond the top 10 players in the league. I mean it has Jokic above Anthony Davis. Marvin Williams and Jae Crowder above Cousins. Derozen is behind Danny Green and Miles Plumlee.
I could do hundreds of these. After the top 10 or maybe top 20 the list is just vomit.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2016_advanced.html

This seems like a really weak rebuttal to the point that there 5 rookies in playoff rotations in the east alone that have played significant roles for their teams at other points this season. I will repeat again that the value would be expected to be higher than these guys for a top 5, or potentially top 3 pick. Your consistent pessimism on the celtics (but raving about the 76ers) is a good source of humor though.