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I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« on: April 19, 2016, 02:57:52 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I contributed a fairly long piece for CLNS Radio about my growing excitement for the upcoming offseason: 

http://clnsradio.com/boston-celtics-news/item/13581-summer-presents-unabashed-optimism-for-boston-celtics-fans

In short, I tried to take a look at what could be considered a "worst-case scenario":  Seeing the pick fall to #6 and striking out in free agency and the trade market.

I also tried to look at some of the wild pipe dream "best-case scenario" options, such as landing Ben Simmons, signing Kevin Durant + another max contract, trading for an additional impact star - all while keeping Thomas, Crowder and Smart.

There's definitely a lot of wiggle room between the two extremes.  I've never been more hyped up for a Celtic Summer. 
« Last Edit: April 19, 2016, 03:05:43 PM by LarBrd33 »

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #1 on: April 19, 2016, 03:11:16 PM »

Offline libermaniac

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Good read.  I share your optimism.  It all starts on 5/17.  Go C's!

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #2 on: April 19, 2016, 03:11:52 PM »

Offline number_n9ne

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Nice job! TP

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #3 on: April 19, 2016, 03:13:01 PM »

Offline gift

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TP!

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #4 on: April 19, 2016, 03:24:03 PM »

Offline rocknrollforyoursoul

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I'm pretty confident that something good will happen for the Cs this summer, I'm just not convinced that the best-case scenario, or even a scenario approaching that, will happen.

Though I do hope I'm wrong about that.

The Celtics should get no worse than the No. 3 pick, but I'm not counting that chicken before it hatches. And though they'll have lots of cap space to sign one or two star- or superstar-level players, I'm trying to tamp down my excitement about possible "fireworks" unless and until something happens.
There are two kinds of people: those who say to God, 'Thy will be done,' and those to whom God says, 'All right, then, have it your way.'

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Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #5 on: April 19, 2016, 03:40:38 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm pretty confident that something good will happen for the Cs this summer, I'm just not convinced that the best-case scenario, or even a scenario approaching that, will happen.

Though I do hope I'm wrong about that.

The Celtics should get no worse than the No. 3 pick, but I'm not counting that chicken before it hatches. And though they'll have lots of cap space to sign one or two star- or superstar-level players, I'm trying to tamp down my excitement about possible "fireworks" unless and until something happens.
Statistically, we have a greatest chance of the pick ending up 5th (26.5%), but Top 5 picks are gold in this league.  We don't know much about the guys yet, but it's basically a lock that whoever we end up drafting will be one of our greatest assets by default - and possibly a future star to build around. 

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #6 on: April 19, 2016, 03:41:52 PM »

Offline the TRUTH

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There are a lot of similarities between the summer of 2016 and the summer of 2007. Some of the differences are that the C's are heading into an exciting summer while already having a quality team, unlike 2007. Additionally, the C's have a lot more potential cap space this summer than they did heading into the 2007 offseason. On the other hand, there's a difference between having the third best lottery odds and the second best odds, and the top of this year's draft isn't necessarily seen as being as transcendental as it was back in 2007. Also, this year's team probably doesn't have a young player with the same combination of proven talent/production and potential as Al Jefferson had back then.

Even if the lottery doesn't work out in our favor, I still have confidence that Ainge is intelligent and flexible enough to still hit the jackpot just like he did in 2007. With as many assets as the Celtics have, I can't envision a scenario where we strike out on every single blockbuster trade proposal and every single attempted signing of a top free agent.

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2016, 03:51:25 PM »

Offline knuckleballer

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That was an excellent article.  Congrats on getting published (I have no idea if you have been previously).  TP

I have to say that I prefer the optimistic LarBrd33.  :)

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2016, 04:20:57 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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There are a lot of similarities between the summer of 2016 and the summer of 2007. Some of the differences are that the C's are heading into an exciting summer while already having a quality team, unlike 2007. Additionally, the C's have a lot more potential cap space this summer than they did heading into the 2007 offseason. On the other hand, there's a difference between having the third best lottery odds and the second best odds, and the top of this year's draft isn't necessarily seen as being as transcendental as it was back in 2007. Also, this year's team probably doesn't have a young player with the same combination of proven talent/production and potential as Al Jefferson had back then.

Even if the lottery doesn't work out in our favor, I still have confidence that Ainge is intelligent and flexible enough to still hit the jackpot just like he did in 2007. With as many assets as the Celtics have, I can't envision a scenario where we strike out on every single blockbuster trade proposal and every single attempted signing of a top free agent.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Boston had zero cap space back in 2007.  We had to send large expiring contracts like Wally Sizaszzldsafierabiak and Theo Ratliff to make those deals.

Like 2007, we have the draft pick.

Like 2007, we have valuable young assets like Al Jefferson/Marcus Smart.

Like 2007, we have trade options.

Unlike 2007, the team has double-max cap space.  As far as I know, the team literally never had cap space for even a single max contract until last Summer.   

Unlike 2007, the team has additional valuable picks like #16, #23, 2017 Brooklyn pick swap, 2018 Brooklyn 1st and 2019 Memphis 1st. 

Unlike 2007, we're already a legitimate playoff team with a solid foundation to build on.

I'm way more excited about this Summer than I was heading into 2007.  That's not to say the results will be as good.  It's hard to top winning a title.  But my excitement level is definitely higher heading into the Summer.

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2016, 04:37:32 PM »

Offline TheFlex

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Nice piece. TP. The best part is, the possibilities are so vast and various, even a tempered expectation gives you something like:

- Trade for a star: success

- Sign 1-2 max free agents: fail

- Land a top 3 pick with BKN 1: fail (BKN 1 slides to 5, we use it to trade for an available star)

- Succeed in packaging DAL 1, BOS 1, multiple 2016 2nds for a 1st in the 10-12 range: success

- Retain key contributors at price not widely deemed an overpay: partial success (Sully leaves, ET stays; Amir + Jerebko used in trade to net star player)

IT/Rozier
AB/Smart
Crowder/ET
Cousins/[Olynyk]/Mickey
Olynyk/I. Rabb/[Cousins]

And then the Celtics go into the 2017 offseason with much of their cap space preserved, all remaining BKN 1sts + MEM 1sts + own 1sts, etc.

Man, what a time to be a Celtics fan.


Draft: 8 first rounders in next 5 years.

Cap space: $24 mil.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dkcleague/

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #10 on: April 19, 2016, 04:43:12 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Nice piece. TP. The best part is, the possibilities are so vast and various, even a tempered expectation gives you something like:

- Trade for a star: success

- Sign 1-2 max free agents: fail

- Land a top 3 pick with BKN 1: fail (BKN 1 slides to 5, we use it to trade for an available star)

- Succeed in packaging DAL 1, BOS 1, multiple 2016 2nds for a 1st in the 10-12 range: success

- Retain key contributors at price not widely deemed an overpay: partial success (Sully leaves, ET stays; Amir + Jerebko used in trade to net star player)

IT/Rozier
AB/Smart
Crowder/ET
Cousins/[Olynyk]/Mickey
Olynyk/I. Rabb/[Cousins]

And then the Celtics go into the 2017 offseason with much of their cap space preserved, all remaining BKN 1sts + MEM 1sts + own 1sts, etc.

Man, what a time to be a Celtics fan.
Exactly.   I don't imagine Ainge has a set plan.  He probably has an ideal scenario that he's working towards, but so much is going to depend on where we land in the draft, what's available, how the trade market shakes out and how productive our free agent meetings go.  But we will absolutely have options.  There's no doubt we'll have options.

Back in 2007, I think our initial plan was to go after Allen Iverson.  Obviously our top choice was to land the #1 pick.  When the pick landed fifth, we went after KG, but that fell through when KG refused to come to Boston.   Ainge made an audible and went after Ray... and found a way to grab KG after-all. 

Who knows where things will go.  I don't think it can be predicted.  But Ainge has put this team in an amazing position.  We have so many opportunities to make an upgrade.  Patience has paid off.  Here's hoping we don't mess it up.

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #11 on: April 19, 2016, 04:43:56 PM »

Offline gift

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I'm pretty confident that something good will happen for the Cs this summer, I'm just not convinced that the best-case scenario, or even a scenario approaching that, will happen.

Though I do hope I'm wrong about that.

The Celtics should get no worse than the No. 3 pick, but I'm not counting that chicken before it hatches. And though they'll have lots of cap space to sign one or two star- or superstar-level players, I'm trying to tamp down my excitement about possible "fireworks" unless and until something happens.
Statistically, we have a greatest chance of the pick ending up 5th (26.5%), but Top 5 picks are gold in this league.  We don't know much about the guys yet, but it's basically a lock that whoever we end up drafting will be one of our greatest assets by default - and possibly a future star to build around.

Greatest single slot is the 5th pick. But we have a 73.5% chance that it is not the 5th pick, and a 31.3% chance that it is top 2. So statistically there's a slightly better chance that it is top 2 than the number 5 or 6. Significantly better chance that it's top 4 (69.5%) than 5 or 6.

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #12 on: April 19, 2016, 04:44:39 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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I'm pretty confident that something good will happen for the Cs this summer, I'm just not convinced that the best-case scenario, or even a scenario approaching that, will happen.

Though I do hope I'm wrong about that.

The Celtics should get no worse than the No. 3 pick, but I'm not counting that chicken before it hatches. And though they'll have lots of cap space to sign one or two star- or superstar-level players, I'm trying to tamp down my excitement about possible "fireworks" unless and until something happens.
Statistically, we have a greatest chance of the pick ending up 5th (26.5%), but Top 5 picks are gold in this league.  We don't know much about the guys yet, but it's basically a lock that whoever we end up drafting will be one of our greatest assets by default - and possibly a future star to build around.

Greatest single slot is the 5th pick. But we have a 73.5% chance that it is not the 5th pick, and a 31.3% chance that it is top 2. So statistically there's a slightly better chance that it is top 2 than the number 5 or 6. Significantly better chance that it's top 4 (69.5%) than 5 or 6.
Fair point.  TP

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #13 on: April 19, 2016, 04:50:17 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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There are a lot of similarities between the summer of 2016 and the summer of 2007. Some of the differences are that the C's are heading into an exciting summer while already having a quality team, unlike 2007. Additionally, the C's have a lot more potential cap space this summer than they did heading into the 2007 offseason. On the other hand, there's a difference between having the third best lottery odds and the second best odds, and the top of this year's draft isn't necessarily seen as being as transcendental as it was back in 2007. Also, this year's team probably doesn't have a young player with the same combination of proven talent/production and potential as Al Jefferson had back then.

Even if the lottery doesn't work out in our favor, I still have confidence that Ainge is intelligent and flexible enough to still hit the jackpot just like he did in 2007. With as many assets as the Celtics have, I can't envision a scenario where we strike out on every single blockbuster trade proposal and every single attempted signing of a top free agent.
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm pretty sure Boston had zero cap space back in 2007.  We had to send large expiring contracts like Wally Sizaszzldsafierabiak and Theo Ratliff to make those deals.

Like 2007, we have the draft pick.

Like 2007, we have valuable young assets like Al Jefferson/Marcus Smart.

Like 2007, we have trade options.

Unlike 2007, the team has double-max cap space.  As far as I know, the team literally never had cap space for even a single max contract until last Summer.   

Unlike 2007, the team has additional valuable picks like #16, #23, 2017 Brooklyn pick swap, 2018 Brooklyn 1st and 2019 Memphis 1st. 

Unlike 2007, we're already a legitimate playoff team with a solid foundation to build on.

I'm way more excited about this Summer than I was heading into 2007.  That's not to say the results will be as good.  It's hard to top winning a title.  But my excitement level is definitely higher heading into the Summer.
Pierce >> IT
Big Al > Smart (in terms of trade value)
Danny also got an incredibly lopsided deal done for KG and then got Allen.

I think the biggest factor there is the unlikeliness of the KG trade. First, it is incredible that we were able to get KG at all. Hes an absolute two way superstar. Second that we did so without giving up Rondo or the #5 pick.

This allowed Ainge to put Rondo and Allen next to Pierce and KG which went a long way for our title aspirations.

Going into that offseason Id say we had a fairly similar chance of landing KG as we do now of landing KD.

In this offseason you know we will at the very least bring in a top 6 pick or a player worth that value, back then you thought we were going to bring in a top 5 pick, but if we cant make a move for a real piece, we might also trade Pierce and go into full rebuild.

Im sure with Ainge the formula is the same this time around.
Try to attain a star player with our pick, use this pick in concert with IT to sell team as legit contenders to KD, sign KD, keep role players.

It was brilliant then of Ainge to be able to get Allen and KG and keep role players because he had to get KG via trade, however i think KG was much more on the market and much more attainable than KD will be.

I think you look at the 2007 offseason and say coming in to it I was excited, but now we are probably situated better than we were and thats fair, but you also have to take into account that that was a miracle offseason.

Re: I'm Super Optimistic about this Summer
« Reply #14 on: April 19, 2016, 04:54:27 PM »

Offline Ilikesports17

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I'm pretty confident that something good will happen for the Cs this summer, I'm just not convinced that the best-case scenario, or even a scenario approaching that, will happen.

Though I do hope I'm wrong about that.

The Celtics should get no worse than the No. 3 pick, but I'm not counting that chicken before it hatches. And though they'll have lots of cap space to sign one or two star- or superstar-level players, I'm trying to tamp down my excitement about possible "fireworks" unless and until something happens.
Statistically, we have a greatest chance of the pick ending up 5th (26.5%), but Top 5 picks are gold in this league.  We don't know much about the guys yet, but it's basically a lock that whoever we end up drafting will be one of our greatest assets by default - and possibly a future star to build around.

Greatest single slot is the 5th pick. But we have a 73.5% chance that it is not the 5th pick, and a 31.3% chance that it is top 2. So statistically there's a slightly better chance that it is top 2 than the number 5 or 6. Significantly better chance that it's top 4 (69.5%) than 5 or 6.
Fair point.  TP
The top 5 cutoff I think is fairly important symbolically as you said (tho that may be a fan misconception), so its encouraging that we have ~96% chance of landing top 5.

Furthermore, the fact that we have a 31% chance for top 2 is mind boggling. Im not sure Ive quite wrapped my head around the idea, that we have a 1 in 3 shot at Simmons/Ingram and I think that would also mean a 1/3 shot at Cousins or Butler.