Author Topic: Assessing pick 35 historically  (Read 2896 times)

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Assessing pick 35 historically
« on: April 16, 2016, 08:42:55 AM »

Offline greece66

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PLAYERS DRAFTED AT PICK 35

Data appear in this order Year Player School/Country – Team that selected the pick.

Assessment comes last and is in bold. There are four assessments: bust, bench player (some characterized as solid, if they had a noteworthy career), steals, and hard to classify (esp. applied to recently drafted players).

2010s
six players drafted: two busts (one with reservations); one bench player, one steal; two hard to classify

2015 Willy Hernangomez, Baloncesta – Philadelphia 76ers stashed in Spain, HARD TO CLASSIFY ???
2014 Jarnell Stokes, Tennessee – Memphis Grizzlies 26 NBA games in two seasons for MEM and MIA; 22 yo HARD TO CLASSIFY ???
2013 Glen Rice Jr., NBDL – Philadelphia 76ers Has played a total of 16 games in two seasons for WAS; he is 25 yo looks like a BUST :-[
2012 Draymond Green, Michigan St. – Golden State Warriors STEAL :police:
2011 Tyler Honeycutt, University of California, Los Angeles – Sacramento Kings BUST two seasons; now plays in Europe :-[
2010 Nemanja Bjelica, Serbia – Washington Wizards started playing this season in Minny; looks like unimpressive BENCH PLAYER:)

2000’s
ten players drafted: five busts; two hard to classify; two steals; one bench player


2009 DaJuan Summers, Georgetown University – Detroit Pistons HARD TO CLASSIFY, but looks like an unimpressive bench player ???
2008 DeAndre Jordan, Texas A&M University – L.A. Clippers STEAL :police:
2007 Glen Davis, Louisiana State University – Seattle Supersonics BENCH PLAYER MPG 21.1:)
2006 P.J. Tucker, University of Texas at Austin – Toronto Raptors HARD TO CLASSIFY- resurrected his career at the age of 27 at Phoenix ???
2005 Ricky Sanchez, IMG Academy (FL) – Portland Trail Blazers BUST zero seasons :-[
2004 Andre Emmett, Texas Tech University – Seattle Supersonics BUST two seasons:-[
2003 Szymon Szewczyk, Poland – Milwaukee Bucks BUST zero seasons:-[
2002 Carlos Boozer, Duke University – Cleveland Cavaliers STEAL :police:
2001 Jeff Trepagnier, University of Southern California – Cleveland Cavaliers BUST three seasons:-[
2000 Mike Smith, University of Louisiana at Monroe – Washington Wizards BUST one season:-[

1990’s
ten players drafted: seven busts; three bench players of which one solid

1999 Calvin Booth, Pennsylvania State University – Washington Wizards BENCH PLAYER MPG 12.2; PPG 3.3 :)
1998 Bruno Sundov, Croatia – Dallas Mavericks BUST 5.1 mins in nine seasons:-[
1997 Kebu Stewart, California State University, Bakersfield – Philadelphia 76ers BUST played one season:-[
1996 Joseph Blair, University of Arizona – Seattle Supersonics  BUST played in Europe:-[
1995 Jimmy King, University of Michigan – Toronto Raptors BUST played two seasons
:-[
1994 Michael Smith, Providence College – Sacramento Kings SOLID BENCH PLAYER, MPG 23.5; RPG 7.1:)
1993 Ed Stokes, University of Arizona – Miami HEAT BUST one season:-[
1992 Tony Bennett, University of Wisconsin-Green Bay – Charlotte Hornets BUST played only three seasons:-[
1991 Mike Iuzzolino, Saint Francis University – Dallas Mavericks BUST played only two seasons:-[
1990 Greg Foster, University of Texas at El Paso – Washington Bullets BENCH PLAYER: MPG 12.2:)

1980’s
ten players drafted: six busts; four bench players of which two solid


1989 Pat Durham, Colorado State University – Dallas Mavericks BUST two seasons:-[
1988 Sylvester Gray, University of Memphis – Miami HEAT BUST one season:-[
1987 Doug Lee, Purdue University – Houston Rockets BUST three seasons:-[
1986 Milt Wagner, University of Louisville – Dallas Mavericks BUST two seasons:-[
1985 Tyrone Corbin, DePaul University – San Antonio Spurs SOLID BENCH PLAYER MPG 26;MPG 9.2 :)
1984 Othell Wilson, University of Virginia – Golden State Warriors BUST two seasons:-[
1983 Darrell Lockhart, Auburn University – San Antonio Spurs BUST one season:-[
1982 Derek Smith, University of Louisville – Golden State Warriors SOLID BENCH PLAYER MPG 24.1; PPG 12.8:)
1981 Charles Davis, Vanderbilt University – Washington Bullets BENCH PLAYER MPG 12.2:)
1980 Rick Mahorn, Hampton University – Washington Bullets BENCH PLAYER MPG 23.1; RPG 6.2; PPG 6.9 :)

1970’s
seven players drafted: five busts and two bench players


1979 James Bradley, University of Memphis – Atlanta Hawks BUST three seasons ABA :-[
1978 Tommie Green, Southern University and A&M College – New Orleans Jazz BUST one season :-[
1977 Mark Landsberger, Arizona State University – Chicago Bulls BENCH PLAYER MPG 16.7; PPG 5.6 :)
1976 None
1975 Allen Murphy, University of Louisville – Phoenix Suns BUST two seasons :-[
1974 Kevin Stacom, Providence College – Boston Celtics BENCH PLAYER MPG 13.1; PPG 5.1 :)
1973 Phil Hankinson, University of Pennsylvania – Boston Celtics BUST two seasons :-[
1972 None
1971 Willie Long, University of New Mexico – Cleveland Cavaliers BUST three seasons in ABA :-[

Observations
-The sample size is too small (as usual with NBA players): we have a total of forty three players
-This could be remedied by broadening the range (say make an analysis of picks 33 to 37); might do it when I have the time
-Another interesting thing to do is to compare with a higher range of picks, say 23-28 to find out if there are meaningful differences.

Now, the motivation behind collecting these data. First, early second rounder are seen as almost equal to late first rounders and wanted to see if they actually have much value, esp. given that Danny has turned to collecting them big time the last few years.

tl;drAs expected, the 1970s was not a good time for second rounders. Rotations were smaller and the pool of players was smaller too (much fewer international prospects were even considered for the draft). As we approach to the modern era though things look better, and the importance GMs attribute to early second rounders seems at least partially justified. Among the last 16 players drafted at 35 we have three confirmed steals and only seven busts (of which one is debatable).

I'll probably get back to this to add more data, in the meantime, I'd be delighted to have some comments and thoughts.

PS if anyone knows why in some drafts of the 1970s there was no pick 35, it would help get a better picture of what happened in that decade (ie if it was because the players left were seen as unworthy of a contract, then they should probably be counted as busts.)

« Last Edit: April 16, 2016, 08:54:48 AM by greece666 »

Re: Assessing pick 35 historically
« Reply #1 on: April 16, 2016, 09:18:12 AM »

Offline greece66

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Ehm, looks like I should have done some online research before collecting all these data  :P

One first observation, someone made a ranking of the value of all NBA picks until 2009- according to this analysis a nr 35 pick is worth roughly a quarter of the 2 pick; whereas a 37 pick has almost double the value of a 35 one  ::)

But here's the plot twist: making the analysis in 2009 he missed out both DA Jordan and Draymond Green. This is why I am so weary of this kind of analyses because a couple of outliers can complete change the results. For what is worth the link is below

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

If anyone knows of a better attempt to quantify the value of second rounders I'd be obliged.

Re: Assessing pick 35 historically
« Reply #2 on: April 16, 2016, 09:25:09 AM »

Offline rollie mass

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greece that was great work-thanks

Re: Assessing pick 35 historically
« Reply #3 on: April 16, 2016, 09:29:15 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Ehm, looks like I should have done some online research before collecting all these data  :P

One first observation, someone made a ranking of the value of all NBA picks until 2009- according to this analysis a nr 35 pick is worth roughly a quarter of the 2 pick; whereas a 37 pick has almost double the value of a 35 one  ::)

But here's the plot twist: making the analysis in 2009 he missed out both DA Jordan and Draymond Green. This is why I am so weary of this kind of analyses because a couple of outliers can complete change the results. For what is worth the link is below

http://www.82games.com/nbadraftpicks.htm

If anyone knows of a better attempt to quantify the value of second rounders I'd be obliged.

Those "rating" numbers are important to understand as what they are. They measure player performance historically, nothing else.

People often use the term "value" to describe them, or something else misleading. (Tankathon.com uses them or something similar in their "Draft power rankings").

There's no link between those numbers and anything like trade value, obviously. Though Ive seen people try to connect the two.

I think the star/starter/rotation/bust distinction is a good one, to be honest. Your comment about DA and Dray is fair so what I do to create larger samples is average over ranges.

For example, using that same 2009 list you get around a 5% chance that a pick in the 31-35 range
will be a star OR starter. That seems reasonable. Maybe a bit low since now, many quite good international players are taken in exactly that range if they have contract issues, when their talent would justify a higher pick (Pekovic, Asik).

The good news is that we have a bunch of those picks. Take a few guys, bring them to camp and see what happens. If they don't work out, not much harm done, you can let them go.

TP for the hard work!


Re: Assessing pick 35 historically
« Reply #4 on: April 16, 2016, 11:04:04 AM »

Offline Csfan1984

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I just hope it's not an undersized combo guard. Let it be a Big please. Decent scoring guards are all over the NBA need to make an investment in finding a great big man and decent backup 3.

And tp for the effort.

Re: Assessing pick 35 historically
« Reply #5 on: April 16, 2016, 12:10:02 PM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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I just hope it's not an undersized combo guard. Let it be a Big please. Decent scoring guards are all over the NBA need to make an investment in finding a great big man and decent backup 3.

And tp for the effort.
given that we are discussing the 35th pick in the draft, i dont think ainge can be too choosy. ALL SECOND ROUND PICK PLAYERS who makes an nba roster as a starter are by definition a huge success.

ainge's record of second round picks is above the nba average for success. so, it will be interesting to see what he does this year.

oh, and here is an interested read on second round picks. based on 7 years of data:

"13 players picked in the second round ... have started on a consistent basis for a team, giving teams roughly a six percent chance of acquiring a solid starter with a second-round pick. Some players from this category include Nikola Pekovic and Mario Chalmers."

...

" A second-round pick has an 80 percent chance of being worth nothing or very close to nothing,"

http://www.todaysfastbreak.com/nba-draft/how-valuable-is-an-nba-second-round-pick/
« Last Edit: April 16, 2016, 12:15:03 PM by hwangjini_1 »
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