Assuming the draft order stays as is...

[crimson_stallion]

i don't get why people feel Heild has anything less then star potential.

He is arguably the best all round scorer in the entire draft, he's got an excellent jumper with almost unlimited range, he's a capable passer and ball handler, and he's got all the physical tools to become at least decent (perhaps better) on defence.  Then add his high motor and work ethic, and if you ask me he has the potential to become the best player in this draft class.

He's an elite scorer and has no real major weaknesses in his game.  His floor IMHO is Jamal Crawford, and his ceiling is Damian Lillard.  Huge upside, and relatively low risk of him busting too.

To me, he's easily #3 on the list, and a step above Murray. 

I also don't get why people are rating Bender so highly. I feel like people just recognise that he's a tall, lanky and skilled euro white guy, and so they think of Porzingus and get hyped. 

I look at Bender and i see a taller poor-man's Toni Kukoc with less scoring ability.  Maybe a bit of Andrea Bargnani but again, an offensively inferior version.  I don't see him excelling as a rebounder at the NBA level, nor do i see him being an elite rim protector.  That's fine because Dirk wasn't either of those things either....but Dirk was always a really good scorer and Bender is not.

I get that skilled 7 footers are rare, and i get he's only 18, but i just dont know if he his game will ever be NBA suitable.  If he becomes a better scorer then i could see him becoming a really good player, but that's a big IF.  He's a very high risk prospect IMHO .

[crimson_stallion]

Who knows with Simmons, last year Okafor was a lock for the #1, and he went third. I could see Philly or the Lakers making a panic move not to miss out on the next "Porzingis" and taking Bender too high. If we stay at 3, I wait until draft night to make a trade to see how the top 2 shake out. If Simmons and Ingram are gone, trade it for Okafor, unless Bender blows us away in workouts.

Last week on the 98.5 The Sports Hub, they were saying Philly fans were saying (via Twitter and forums) that they wanted the Nets pick and Rozier for Okafor... If the pick is 3 or 4, seems like a no brainer.

No way i do that.

There are around 5 guys in this draft that i like over Okafor...and Rozier has legitimate upside.

[moiso]

Who knows with Simmons, last year Okafor was a lock for the #1, and he went third. I could see Philly or the Lakers making a panic move not to miss out on the next "Porzingis" and taking Bender too high. If we stay at 3, I wait until draft night to make a trade to see how the top 2 shake out. If Simmons and Ingram are gone, trade it for Okafor, unless Bender blows us away in workouts.

Last week on the 98.5 The Sports Hub, they were saying Philly fans were saying (via Twitter and forums) that they wanted the Nets pick and Rozier for Okafor... If the pick is 3 or 4, seems like a no brainer.

No way i do that.

There are around 5 guys in this draft that i like over Okafor...and Rozier has legitimate upside.

And even more that I like better than Noel.

[max215]

I'd shop the pick around, trying to move up in the Draft or grab a star. If there are no viable trade options, then I'd take Bender or maybe Buddy.

[celticsfan8591]

If we get the #3 pick and can't trade it for a star or top 2 pick, I think we should trade it along with whatever other picks from this year are necessary to a team in the 6-10 range for their pick and their unprotected pick next year.  We then grab poeltl to be our rim protector and gamble on getting another lottery pick in a better draft next year.

Trades like this very rarely happen.

The last example I can think of is the Holiday for Noel + 2014 1st trade.


Generally speaking, you don't see teams trade down / out in a draft for a future 1st.  Other teams are usually smart enough to understand that they're probably one knee injury away from that working out really badly for them.

That trade was only 4 years ago though, considering how rarely top 10 picks get traded in general I wouldn't say trades of this nature are particularly rare.  Obviously teams are going to be reluctant to trade a potential lottery pick, but if a team is targeting a specific guy that they won't be able to get I don't think it's out of the question.  The team that I could see going for such a trade is Denver; they're pretty stacked with young guys at center and in the backcourt, so if they stay at 7 I could see them trading up to ensure that they get Bender or Brown instead of taking Hield, Murray, Dunn or Poeltl and creating even more of a logjam.  They have so many talented young guys that they can afford to risk losing a lottery pick next year to ensure that they get the right guy this year. 

[chambers]

No one will give up Simmons or Ingram for #3 pmus whatever we offer.
The two most likely moves:
1) offer the pick for Butler.
2)if the Lakers keep their pick, trade the pick to Philly for Okafur so they can draft Kris Dunn.

[hwangjini_1]

i don't get why people feel Heild has anything less then star potential.

He is arguably the best all round scorer in the entire draft, he's got an excellent jumper with almost unlimited range, he's a capable passer and ball handler, and he's got all the physical tools to become at least decent (perhaps better) on defence.  Then add his high motor and work ethic, and if you ask me he has the potential to become the best player in this draft class.

He's an elite scorer and has no real major weaknesses in his game.  His floor IMHO is Jamal Crawford, and his ceiling is Damian Lillard.  Huge upside, and relatively low risk of him busting too.

To me, he's easily #3 on the list, and a step above Murray. 

I also don't get why people are rating Bender so highly. I feel like people just recognise that he's a tall, lanky and skilled euro white guy, and so they think of Porzingus and get hyped. 

I look at Bender and i see a taller poor-man's Toni Kukoc with less scoring ability.  Maybe a bit of Andrea Bargnani but again, an offensively inferior version.  I don't see him excelling as a rebounder at the NBA level, nor do i see him being an elite rim protector.  That's fine because Dirk wasn't either of those things either....but Dirk was always a really good scorer and Bender is not.

I get that skilled 7 footers are rare, and i get he's only 18, but i just dont know if he his game will ever be NBA suitable.  If he becomes a better scorer then i could see him becoming a really good player, but that's a big IF.  He's a very high risk prospect IMHO .

and here is where we differ. yes, heild is a heck of a long range shooter and his step back jumper is very good as well. but when i watched him play against other college players i kept seeing him make questionable to poor decisions on drives and with passes.

i saw him drive into double teams. i saw questionable passing decisions. and his ball handling was only so-so. i am not saying he is god awful or will never be good. but outside of his shooting, his other skills looked to be only okay to mediocre - and that was against college players. in the nba these will all become more pronounced.

also, he is NOT a great penetrator and will have trouble getting to the basket in the pros. he is a jump shooter extraordinaire, but still primarily a jump shooter.

if the celtics are picking sixth or later in the draft and heild is there, then absolutely they should pick him. but from picks 1 to 5, i find players i think will be better in the nba.

[alldaboston]

i don't get why people feel Heild has anything less then star potential.

He is arguably the best all round scorer in the entire draft, he's got an excellent jumper with almost unlimited range, he's a capable passer and ball handler, and he's got all the physical tools to become at least decent (perhaps better) on defence.  Then add his high motor and work ethic, and if you ask me he has the potential to become the best player in this draft class.

He's an elite scorer and has no real major weaknesses in his game.  His floor IMHO is Jamal Crawford, and his ceiling is Damian Lillard.  Huge upside, and relatively low risk of him busting too.

To me, he's easily #3 on the list, and a step above Murray. 

I also don't get why people are rating Bender so highly. I feel like people just recognise that he's a tall, lanky and skilled euro white guy, and so they think of Porzingus and get hyped. 

I look at Bender and i see a taller poor-man's Toni Kukoc with less scoring ability.  Maybe a bit of Andrea Bargnani but again, an offensively inferior version.  I don't see him excelling as a rebounder at the NBA level, nor do i see him being an elite rim protector.  That's fine because Dirk wasn't either of those things either....but Dirk was always a really good scorer and Bender is not.

I get that skilled 7 footers are rare, and i get he's only 18, but i just dont know if he his game will ever be NBA suitable.  If he becomes a better scorer then i could see him becoming a really good player, but that's a big IF.  He's a very high risk prospect IMHO .

TP sir. As always, excellent post. Especially regarding Bender.

[danglertx]

It kind of all depends.  If we are going to make a big free agent splash like Horford and Durant, then go for Heild.  If we are going to stay the course and develop a guy... I'd still take Heild but at least then it becomes acceptable to go for Bender.

I had a post awhile back in a thread about guessing dark horse draft picks and since I didn't really watch that much college basketball this year I just went looking through player stats for players that might be undervalued.  Heild was in a different class than most everyone else.  His fg%, 3pt%, and ft% screamed star. 

I read once that the best predictor of success in the NBA from college for 3pt shooters wasn't their 3pt% in college, but their ft%.  If that is the case, Buddy was knocking down 90% of his free throws.  I don't see how he busts.  He might not have the physical tools to be a dominant scorer, but he almost assuredly will stay a very good floor stretching 2 guard.