Dragan Bender no longer a Draft and Stash candidate

[PhoSita]

Also, this is pretty interesting. This was in 2014, when Porzingis was 18, just like Bender is now. You'll notice it's the same critics that are now critical of Bender with basically the same narrative.

Why the celtics should not draft Kristaps Porzingis at 17#

Consensus on Porzingis at the time was that he'd probably go in the teens, early 20s, if I'm remembering right.  If that was where Bender was being projected, I think it would be a no brainer to draft him.

Should Bender go as high or higher than Porzingis did (at age 19) despite having one less year of development (i.e., one less year an NBA team is likely to get a return on his contract)?

He's absolutely benefiting from the Porzingis hype. That being said, if Porzingis was drafted at 17 that would have been one of the biggest draft steals in the last 10 years.

You also have to take into account the fact that this year's draft is considerably weaker than that of 2014 (or at least was thought to be at the same time leading up to the draft)

This is all true, as well.

I wish this was a year where there was a safer prospect who still had high upside.  Maybe that's Brown or Murray.  I think the real value comes from identifying the Euro prospects who stay in the draft and who offer a great value in the teens or twenties. 

By the way, did anybody see that NBADraft.net has Bender at #6 and Sabonis at #5?  Rabb at #8 and Brown at #9?  Their draft board is all over the place.

NBADraft.net is always all over the place.


I think Murray is probably the "safest" player with some considerable upside in the top 5.

I agree with you about Euros.  There are plenty of names that seem intriguing in the 15-40 range of this draft, and it just so happens the Celts have 4 picks in that range.

[number_n9ne]

So back to the OP, does him coming over right away change anything? 

[PhoSita]

So back to the OP, does him coming over right away change anything? 

I doubt it really changes the equation much, though there are some teams that might be more willing to draft him knowing he can come over right away.

[Tr1boy]

Sabonis wherever he is chosen is going to be a solid pick

Was close to unstoppable last season and especially in the tourney. Double teamed, it didn't matter

High motor, IQ, rebounding, post skills.  Ft improvement from 66 to 74 per(from freshman to 2nd year)

[footey]

Every year we get some mystery guys some they are Porzingas and sometimes they are Darko.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/106856/nba-draft-the-numbers-on-international-lottery-picks

The supposedly great Israelis stats.   I concede his shooting is better but he has a lot of other problem areas.

http://basket.co.il/PlayerPage.asp?PlayerNumber=03&TeamId=950&cYear=2016&cView=2&lang=en

Still not the second coming folks.  Almost not blocks and crappy rebounding.

Due to the amount of international scouting nowadays you have far more hits than you have misses. The days of busts, like Tskitishvili and Darko, are fewer than ever. Could they still happen? Of course. However, when a player is projected to be a lottery pick it's usually for good reason.


International Lottery selections since 2010

2010
0

2011
Kanter
Valanciunus
Biyombo
Vesely

2012
0

2013
Greek Freek

2014
Exum
Saric

2015
Porzingis
Hezonja
Mudiay


You can easily say that the last international lottery pick that was a flat out bust was Vesely in 2011. It's not as though taking a domestic player provides a better percentage of success. It just might be that casual fans, those that aren't previed to amount of information of foreign players, feel much more at ease basing their opinion on something they know and have actually seen. Bender is projected to go top 3 by most every publication. This would be the highest international player selected in a very long time. I really doubt it's because they have seen a few highlight videos and are basing their mocks on that. More than likely, it's a combination of what they see themselves and hear from team scouts, executives, etc.

Outside of Giannis (who wasn't taken in the lottery IIRC), and Porzingis, have any of those guys lived up to expectations yet? Maybe JV (very debatable), but otherwise there's been a lot of overvaluing going on based on track record to date.

Giannis was #15, so technically 1 spot outside. I don't see how these guys, as a collective whole, haven't lived up to expectations, but the domestic kids have. Based on the number of busts on the domestic side, it's fair to say that there is no greater risk in drafting a foreign player.

The Bender case is interesting. Some think he's getting pegged this high simply on his size, but if that's the case then why didn't players like Gobert, Nurkic, Nogeira, etc. get drafted much higher simply for their size? The likelihood is that people are seeing something in Bender that the majority of us simply don't have accessibility to. Fair?

That's simply it, he hasn't played enough for anyone to come up with a definite conclusion.  He hasn't even played regular mins. So his coach doesn't think he is ready. 

And Benders reason for declaring for the draft? 

I'm not stating he needs stay but there is a "rush" feeling. He will do well in combine measurements. Maybe even individual workouts. But nobody will still know how he does in 5 on 5 play against good players. Better players than he is used to playing with and against.

We don't know what his stamina level is like.  If in stressful situations (5 min left) how he reacts.   If teams takeaway his strong pts or he is struggling what can he do to overcome on the fly

Right now the bigger question for me anyways is why he didn't get consistent playing time for a team that really could of used his so called talents

Triboy, you constantly contradict yourself so much that you don't even realize you do so, and I won't even bother to address it.

Bender is 18. This means that he would be a high school senior. How would he look playing on that level against peers his same age? Surely it's reasonable to suggest he would be one of the best players in the country, a guy all schools would covet, and a player that would be pegged on the same tier as a Giles, Tatum, and Jackson and a virtual lock to be a top 5 pick in 2017.

Wrong. Porzingis got min and made an impact prior to the NBA

18 year old?? So is Simmons, ingram , Murray etc

And you are so big on defending him and uncrentainty (using your argument he is so young and didnt get min). So you are big on him based on flash mainly? Bravo eddie20

Simmons is almost 20, Murray is 19, Brown is 19, Labiessiere is 20, and so on. Ingram is 18 though, so you did get 1 right.

Triboy, you're one of the people on this board that literally has no idea what they're talking about. Lillard over Curry, Burke the next CP3, Sabonis a top 5 pick, Mickey stopping Paul George, and Hield #1 overall are some of your gems. So until you start offering better analysis I'll continue to take whatever you say with a shovel of salt.

So is Eddie the new Saltlover??

[kozlodoev]

The Bender case is interesting. Some think he's getting pegged this high simply on his size, but if that's the case then why didn't players like Gobert, Nurkic, Nogeira, etc. get drafted much higher simply for their size? The likelihood is that people are seeing something in Bender that the majority of us simply don't have accessibility to. Fair?

Because people fall so hard for bigs that can dribble 5 steps without tripping on their own feet that they forget this is not the chief attribute of a successful NBA PF/C.

[hwangjini_1]

Every year we get some mystery guys some they are Porzingas and sometimes they are Darko.

http://espn.go.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/106856/nba-draft-the-numbers-on-international-lottery-picks

The supposedly great Israelis stats.   I concede his shooting is better but he has a lot of other problem areas.

http://basket.co.il/PlayerPage.asp?PlayerNumber=03&TeamId=950&cYear=2016&cView=2&lang=en

Still not the second coming folks.  Almost not blocks and crappy rebounding.

Due to the amount of international scouting nowadays you have far more hits than you have misses. The days of busts, like Tskitishvili and Darko, are fewer than ever. Could they still happen? Of course. However, when a player is projected to be a lottery pick it's usually for good reason.


International Lottery selections since 2010

2010
0

2011
Kanter
Valanciunus
Biyombo
Vesely

2012
0

2013
Greek Freek

2014
Exum
Saric

2015
Porzingis
Hezonja
Mudiay


You can easily say that the last international lottery pick that was a flat out bust was Vesely in 2011. It's not as though taking a domestic player provides a better percentage of success. It just might be that casual fans, those that aren't previed to amount of information of foreign players, feel much more at ease basing their opinion on something they know and have actually seen. Bender is projected to go top 3 by most every publication. This would be the highest international player selected in a very long time. I really doubt it's because they have seen a few highlight videos and are basing their mocks on that. More than likely, it's a combination of what they see themselves and hear from team scouts, executives, etc.

Outside of Giannis (who wasn't taken in the lottery IIRC), and Porzingis, have any of those guys lived up to expectations yet? Maybe JV (very debatable), but otherwise there's been a lot of overvaluing going on based on track record to date.

Giannis was #15, so technically 1 spot outside. I don't see how these guys, as a collective whole, haven't lived up to expectations, but the domestic kids have. Based on the number of busts on the domestic side, it's fair to say that there is no greater risk in drafting a foreign player.

The Bender case is interesting. Some think he's getting pegged this high simply on his size, but if that's the case then why didn't players like Gobert, Nurkic, Nogeira, etc. get drafted much higher simply for their size? The likelihood is that people are seeing something in Bender that the majority of us simply don't have accessibility to. Fair?

That's simply it, he hasn't played enough for anyone to come up with a definite conclusion.  He hasn't even played regular mins. So his coach doesn't think he is ready. 

And Benders reason for declaring for the draft? 

I'm not stating he needs stay but there is a "rush" feeling. He will do well in combine measurements. Maybe even individual workouts. But nobody will still know how he does in 5 on 5 play against good players. Better players than he is used to playing with and against.

We don't know what his stamina level is like.  If in stressful situations (5 min left) how he reacts.   If teams takeaway his strong pts or he is struggling what can he do to overcome on the fly

Right now the bigger question for me anyways is why he didn't get consistent playing time for a team that really could of used his so called talents

Triboy, you constantly contradict yourself so much that you don't even realize you do so, and I won't even bother to address it.

Bender is 18. This means that he would be a high school senior. How would he look playing on that level against peers his same age? Surely it's reasonable to suggest he would be one of the best players in the country, a guy all schools would covet, and a player that would be pegged on the same tier as a Giles, Tatum, and Jackson and a virtual lock to be a top 5 pick in 2017.

Wrong. Porzingis got min and made an impact prior to the NBA

18 year old?? So is Simmons, ingram , Murray etc

And you are so big on defending him and uncrentainty (using your argument he is so young and didnt get min). So you are big on him based on flash mainly? Bravo eddie20

Simmons is almost 20, Murray is 19, Brown is 19, Labiessiere is 20, and so on. Ingram is 18 though, so you did get 1 right.

Triboy, you're one of the people on this board that literally has no idea what they're talking about. Lillard over Curry, Burke the next CP3, Sabonis a top 5 pick, Mickey stopping Paul George, and Hield #1 overall are some of your gems. So until you start offering better analysis I'll continue to take whatever you say with a shovel of salt.

So is Eddie the new Saltlover??

there is only one saltlover.

[painter33]

I never got the excitement over Bender. the guy didn't even play enough this year to get a highlights you tube video.
He could turn into to something special, but at 3-4 pick I rather go with a safer pick.

This is a pretty good video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJD9kPQNdJ4

My feeling is that if Danny picks Bender I will be happy because I will know he showed enough in workouts to warrant the pick. If Danny passes him up I won't complain because I haven't seen him enough to disagree with Celtics' front office.

Workouts will mean a lot for this kid. He has to show more than he does in the video. Most of his play could have been done by someone 6'1" and not 7'1". He's slow off his feet, doesn't get up quickly enough to be an NBA force on both ends (at #3 that should be the expectation). Dribbles too high in the post, shoots from in front of his face, which will be blocked with consistency by smaller players (he needs to watch McHale video, as most stretch-fours should do), and he really hasn't played against serious comp. In my opinion, he's not worth a #3 at this point and may never be, but again, the workouts will be very telling.