What "Tier" players will we be selecting 4-6?

[Celtics18]

That last sentence is obviously untrue.  "Real deal All Stars" are actually fairly common later in the lottery.  For some reason (probably a complete anomaly), the ninth and tenth picks have yielded way more than their expected share.

This goes back to our discussion in a thread you posted a few days ago.

What I'm talking about is not outcomes, but what we see on draft day.

In this draft there are only two guys I'm really confident pegging as future All-Star caliber players.  Simmons and Ingram.

Chances are, there will be other very good players from this draft class.  And it's possible one or both of those guys falls short of that level.  But we're talking about how they present as prospects on draft day, not what will be four or five years from now.

I hope the guy the Celts take at 5 or 6, if that's where they pick, turns into an All-Star.  I hope that about every guy the Celts draft, however unlikely.  I just don't expect it.

If the Celts drafted Ben Simmons, I'd expect him to become an All-Star.  Anything less would be a disappointment.

The thing is "how they present as prospects on draft day" is just guessing.  Granted, it's educated guessing, but guessing nonetheless.

Whether or not a player was the "best prospect on draft day" ultimately becomes meaningless to the team doing the drafting.  It ends up being what he does during his pro career that matters.

If you want to say, for example, that 2011 was a weak draft because Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Klay Thompson, Isaiah Thomas, Nik Vucevic, Chandler Parsons, Kenneth Faried, Nik Mirotic and Reggie Jackson weren't all that highly regarded as prospects at the time of the draft, by all means, go ahead.

In reality, though, what is more important to NBA organizations is how those players ultimately turned out as pros.

[CFAN38]

I want to do a larger draft tiers post soon but to answer this post I would guess the following,

Tier1 Simmons

Tier 2 Ingram ( I'm torn really close to joining Simmons in tier 1)

Tier 3 bender

Tier 4 Murray, poeltl

Tier5 Dunn, Hield, Ellenson, brown

My tier 4 and 5 are close but I feel portly and Murray should be a class above the tier 5 right now

[PhoSita]

In reality, though, what is more important to NBA organizations is how those players ultimately turned out as pros.

Sure, but what mattered to them on draft day in making decisions about who to draft was what they could feel confident about in each player's scouting report.

I mean, let's put it this way.  If drafting a player meant simply picking a card out of a deck, and an ace is a future All-Star, the fact that you know there are 4 aces in the deck wouldn't be especially comforting.


Also, while it's true that there's some "guessing" to putting together a scouting report, looking at a player and saying "this guy has amazing physical measurements, he does things on tape that no other player in this draft class can do, and he was statistically dominant for a player his age in college" involves no guesswork at all.

None of that's a guarantee a player will be play really well at the next level, but history tells us players selected with those specifications at or near the top of the draft have a very good track record.

[Forza Juventus]

In my opinion:

Tier 1
Ben Simmons

Tier 2
Brandon Ingram
Dragan Bender
Jamal Murray
Buddy Hield

Tier 3
Skal Labissiere
Jaylen Brown
Kris Dunn
Henry Ellenson
Jakob Poeltl

[LarBrd33]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

[LarBrd33]

I've never liked the Tiers. Always seems like people just take a mock draft and draw arbitrary lines.

I actually think NBA scouting is severely underrated.

Yeah, there are guys who overachieve and underachieve... but more often than not when they draw that line and say, "This guy is a can't-miss star", he does.   Karl Towns isn't disappointing.  Anthony Davis doesn't disappoint.  Prior to that only a couple guys really got that designation like Yao Ming, LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Greg Oden.    Oden was a disaster for sure.   But usually the guys they peg as the "next big thing" actually make a major impact in the league.

The 2014 draft there reportedly were three guys in the Tier 1:   Wiggins, Parker and Embiid.   I still haven't ruled out Embiid.   Parker and Wiggins are coming on strong right now.   

Since the all-star break. 
Parker:  19.2 points, 6.4 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.3 steals 51%/35%/80%
Wiggins:  20.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 steals 48%/42%/79%

Not bad for a couple 21 year olds.

When a guy gets placed into Tier 1, it usually isn't arbitrary.  It'll be interesting to see if either Simmons or Ingram even get that designation. 

[CFAN38]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

Thank you I had forgotten how ford breaks down his tiers, I always just look at them as groupings of equal prospect levels. Meaning if a team if drafting in say tier 4 and needs a guard they go with Murray a big man Poeltl

[Who]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

Thank you I had forgotten how ford breaks down his tiers, I always just look at them as groupings of equal prospect levels. Meaning if a team if drafting in say tier 4 and needs a guard they go with Murray a big man Poeltl

Me too. Thanks for posting that.

Okay, then there are a few tier 3 guys available in that 4-6 range.

I'll go with K.Dunn and Poeltl. Probably Jaylen Brown and Bender.

Hield as a maybe although I feel more comfortable with him in tier 4 alongside Skal and J.Murray. Fair argument that J.Brown should go there as well.

I would agree with Ingram and B.Simmons as tier 2. No tier 1.

[LarBrd33]

You'll have to define the terms, since I forget what the specifications of each tier are exactly.


It seems to me that in the 4-6 range the names available will probably include Brown, Murray, Hield, Dunn, and Poeltl.

Based on the names you listed, it looks to me like those guys would probably be Tier 2 or 3, depending on how you define it and value their strengths and weaknesses.


Basically, my hope and expectation is the Celts will draft a guy with a floor as a productive role player and a ceiling around the level of above average starter, with a shot at reaching an All-Star level.  Which is pretty much what we hoped to get in Smart.  Not sure if he's still on track to meet those expectations.

As in most drafts, only a top 2 or 3 pick will give a chance at a real-deal All-Star caliber prospect.

Here's how Ford describes the tiers:

Tier1:  This category is usually reserved for guys who are surefire All-Stars/franchise players.

Tier 2:  This category is reserved for players who are likely locks for the top half of the lottery and are projected as either very good starters or potential All-Stars by scouts. 

Tier 3:  This tier usually is reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers

Tier 4:  Project as starters or rotation players.

Tier 5:  Rotation players.


I see some people here putting Brandon Ingram in Tier 1.   Really?  I haven't really heard that kid is a surefire all-star.   Isn't he Tier 2 at best?   Is Simmons even in Tier 1?  I thought there were major questions about him.  Sounds like both of those guys might be Tier 2.

Thank you I had forgotten how ford breaks down his tiers, I always just look at them as groupings of equal prospect levels. Meaning if a team if drafting in say tier 4 and needs a guard they go with Murray a big man Poeltl

Me too. Thanks for posting that.

Okay, then there are a few tier 3 guys available in that 4-6 range.

I'll go with K.Dunn and Poeltl. Probably Jaylen Brown and Bender.

Hield as a maybe although I feel more comfortable with him in tier 4 alongside Skal and J.Murray. Fair argument that J.Brown should go there as well.

I would agree with Ingram and B.Simmons as tier 2. No tier 1.

Thanks.  Good to know.  Will be interesting to see how Ford eventually lists them.

[Boris Badenov]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

[RockinRyA]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

If there is no Tier 1, everyone on Tier 2 goes to Tier 1, that's how Tier system works.

[BornReady]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

If there is no Tier 1, everyone on Tier 2 goes to Tier 1, that's how Tier system works.

i disagree tier 1 is like a clear franchise player
like anthony davis he was clearly above all the prospects

simmons and ingram havent distinguished themselves enough to be considered this

[LarBrd33]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

If there is no Tier 1, everyone on Tier 2 goes to Tier 1, that's how Tier system works.

No.  That's not how Chad ford does it.  In 2013 he had zero players in tier 1 and tier 2.   

[Tr1boy]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

If there is no Tier 1, everyone on Tier 2 goes to Tier 1, that's how Tier system works.

i disagree tier 1 is like a clear franchise player
like anthony davis he was clearly above all the prospects

simmons and ingram havent distinguished themselves enough to be considered this

Franchise calibre players usually make an impact/carry their team in the MM tourney

Simmons nor Ingram did that

I agree they are tier 2 type prospects.

[Boris Badenov]

Yeah I lean with others above:

Tier 1: none
Tier 2: Simmons, Ingram
Tier 3: Brown, Bender, Murray, Dunn
Tier 4: Hield, Poeltl, Ellenson and others

I think at the beginning of the year people were thinking of Simmons as Tier 1, but he's dropped.

Ingram's been very good but he's getting nowhere near the buzz of, Parker, Wiggins, Anthony Davis, John Wall, Blake Griffin etc....there are very very few players who GMs have put in that tier over the years. Many drafts have none.

If there is no Tier 1, everyone on Tier 2 goes to Tier 1, that's how Tier system works.

No.  That's not how Chad ford does it.  In 2013 he had zero players in tier 1 and tier 2.

Right. The whole point of this system is an absolute standard that does not vary year by year. This allows a comparison of draft strength across years.