Thon Maker declares for the 2016 NBA Draft; must be ruled eligible.

[LarBrd33]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

?  What's the incentive?

The nba doesn't even want players to leave college after one year, let alone out of high school.

It happens, though.   Didn't guys like Brandon Jennings and Mudiay just spend a year overseas?   Dante Exum jumped from a foreign high school to the pros.  Thon Maker just spent an extra year playing High School ball.

I haven't researched this closely, but it really does sound like a kid who got a ton of hype from an overrated mix tape, has a real shot to make a ton of money by being drafted in the 1st round of the NBA, and is desperate not to be exposed on the College level as a mediocre prospect.  Best he enter the NBA now while there's still a shot his hype will get him paid.

[Forza Juventus]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

The incentive is if he is drafted late it would discourage players from entering out of high school. I just don't trust the owners at all. I'm scared they'll collude and I'm scared they won't scout him in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

[Dino Pitino]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

Some of the criticism sure is bizarre, like, how "explosive" do scouts expect a 7'1" player to need to be in the NBA with that kind of handle and range? His "feel for the game" seems...well, what the hell does that even mean? When a 7'1" player can cross defenders over, dribble behind his back, execute as quick a spin as I've ever seen anyone that tall make, and thread the needle with passes...where is the lack of "feel"? He certainly does not exhibit low BBIQ, not in that interview, and not in the video I've seen, and I've now watched most of the Maker footage there is online, including the stuff that's supposed to be embarrassing for him. I still see an amazing prospect. Garnett's dunks were more ferocious in high school and no one can match his intensity, but aside from that...if I didn't know any better...I'd still say Maker is the better prospect at that age. I don't know any better, clearly. But I wonder if these scouts do, either. Maybe they're sometimes as susceptible to bias and blinding groupthink as the mixtape fanboys? It's as if they're using a preexisting glossary of general criticisms for raw African players despite some of them not really applying at all to Maker. They might be seeing way more of him in person, but maybe they're not really seeing him?

Dino, come on.  It sounds like he's not very good.  You've never heard of "feel for the game" impacting a player?  Gerald Green was a good example of a highly athletic sharp shooter who didn't have a good feel for the game.  It took him years until he could be a reliable rotation player.

True. I do know what it means regarding a prospect like Gerald. Getting lost, making bad decisions, slow reactions, poor touch. I don't know what it means yet regarding Maker. I wonder if it's just a way for some scouts to say, "I don't have a feel for Maker's game", i.e., they can't yet visualize how he'd be used, they judge his weaknesses and idiosyncrasies more harshly because he doesn't match a model in their heads.

[LarBrd33]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

Some of the criticism sure is bizarre, like, how "explosive" do scouts expect a 7'1" player to need to be in the NBA with that kind of handle and range? His "feel for the game" seems...well, what the hell does that even mean? When a 7'1" player can cross defenders over, dribble behind his back, execute as quick a spin as I've ever seen anyone that tall make, and thread the needle with passes...where is the lack of "feel"? He certainly does not exhibit low BBIQ, not in that interview, and not in the video I've seen, and I've now watched most of the Maker footage there is online, including the stuff that's supposed to be embarrassing for him. I still see an amazing prospect. Garnett's dunks were more ferocious in high school and no one can match his intensity, but aside from that...if I didn't know any better...I'd still say Maker is the better prospect at that age. I don't know any better, clearly. But I wonder if these scouts do, either. Maybe they're sometimes as susceptible to bias and blinding groupthink as the mixtape fanboys? It's as if they're using a preexisting glossary of general criticisms for raw African players despite some of them not really applying at all to Maker. They might be seeing way more of him in person, but maybe they're not really seeing him?

Dino, come on.  It sounds like he's not very good.  You've never heard of "feel for the game" impacting a player?  Gerald Green was a good example of a highly athletic sharp shooter who didn't have a good feel for the game.  It took him years until he could be a reliable rotation player.

True. I do know what it means regarding a prospect like Gerald. Getting lost, making bad decisions, slow reactions, poor touch. I don't know what it means yet regarding Maker. I wonder if it's just a way for some scouts to say, "I don't have a feel for Maker's game", i.e., they can't yet visualize how he'd be used, they judge his weaknesses and idiosyncrasies more harshly because he doesn't match a model in their heads.

More likely they've watched him put up mediocre stats against wildly inferior competition.  It sounds like he'd struggle even on the d-league level.  Draftexpress ranks as the 44th best prospect in the draft.   Being tall and being able to dunk over 14 year old 5 feet tall white kids doesn't make you a phenom.

[Eddie20]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

The incentive is if he is drafted late it would discourage players from entering out of high school. I just don't trust the owners at all. I'm scared they'll collude and I'm scared they won't scout him in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

I've watched him myself and both Maker brothers look underwhelming.

[Forza Juventus]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

?  What's the incentive?

The nba doesn't even want players to leave college after one year, let alone out of high school.

It happens, though.   Didn't guys like Brandon Jennings and Mudiay just spend a year overseas?   Dante Exum jumped from a foreign high school to the pros.  Thon Maker just spent an extra year playing High School ball.

I haven't researched this closely, but it really does sound like a kid who got a ton of hype from an overrated mix tape, has a real shot to make a ton of money by being drafted in the 1st round of the NBA, and is desperate not to be exposed on the College level as a mediocre prospect.  Best he enter the NBA now while there's still a shot his hype will get him paid.

I think it is a good decision for him to enter the draft and I think he has a lot of potential because of his work ethic and athleticism.

[gift]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

The incentive is if he is drafted late it would discourage players from entering out of high school. I just don't trust the owners at all. I'm scared they'll collude and I'm scared they won't scout him in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

I've watched him myself and both Maker brothers look underwhelming.

I thought Matur was supposed to be even better for his age. Is that not the case now?

I do think Thon was so overhyped that some of the criticism is an overreaction to that hype. No one wants to go out on a limb for a guy with bust potential. But no one can rule him out completely either. So he'll probably get picked higher than anyone would care to admit, all while being criticized like a #1 pick and lead to him continuing to underwhelm while still being a useful player.

[Forza Juventus]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

The incentive is if he is drafted late it would discourage players from entering out of high school. I just don't trust the owners at all. I'm scared they'll collude and I'm scared they won't scout him in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

I've watched him myself and both Maker brothers look underwhelming.

I thought Matur was supposed to be even better for his age. Is that not the case now?

I do think Thon was so overhyped that some of the criticism is an overreaction to that hype. No one wants to go out on a limb for a guy with bust potential. But no one can rule him out completely either. So he'll probably get picked higher than anyone would care to admit, all while being criticized like a #1 pick and lead to him continuing to underwhelm while still being a useful player.

I agree with you gift

[Lucky17]

FWIW:

http://www.draftexpress.com/article/Thon-Maker-Eschews-College-Basketball--Will-Attempt-to-Enter-NBA-Draft-5415

The official NBA collective bargaining agreement rule states that a player can be eligible for selection in the NBA Draft if “the player is or will be at least nineteen years of age during the calendar year in which the Draft is held, and, at least one NBA Season has elapsed since the player's graduation from high school.”

Seems both of those statements are true re: Thon Maker.

[Dino Pitino]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

NBA front offices probably foresaw his eligibility gambit long before this news.

As for the potential game of driving down the stock of prospects by leaking unwarranted criticism in order to have them drop and be more available in the draft (or the converse, driving up the stock of flawed players to get other teams to waste a pick on them), it's possible that such gamesmanship has happened in the past without us ever knowing. But there are reasons why it wouldn't happen often, e.g., the risk of souring team-agent relationships if discovered, the fact that teams at the very top of the draft have little incentive to do it, the fact that after the top of the draft most non-elite prospects are full of real flaws so it would be superfluous, the undeniability of most elite prospects' talent, and the way that it could be spoiled by an honest assessment from just a single source. Maker is an unusual case because his hype was so stratospheric so early compared to the available evidence that it may be easier to get away with by piling on the inevitable anti-hype backlash, especially since he won't be able to prove himself and counter any smears beyond high school competition, a situation that hasn't existed for 10 years. If this kind of gamesmanship is an actual thing, then it would've been more tempting/effective/prevalent in the straight-from-HS days. Anyway, we'll know better if this is the case if a team shockingly takes him in the top 5-10, in which case any lip service about his workouts opening eyes will probably be bull from a team that's been eyeing him as a lotto pick the whole time.

But that's all really speculative and almost implausible. The NBA-not-liking-a-precedent is not so speculative. They've all seen this possibility way before yesterday. Overcriticism as a way to encourage him to go to school is completely plausible.

[knuckleballer]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

What would be the motivation behind Woj, Ford, and Givony to "smear" him? That statement is baseless.

Their sources have an incentive to rate him negatively

But what's the incentive? If you're saying that you think everyone is causing misdirection by providing criticism, then wouldn't that apply to every prospect ever? The fact is, Maker at one time was ranked around a top 3 pick by DX. However, since he had multiple poor showings, that dropped to him a late first round pick in 2017 draft for the last couple of years. The news that he is trying to declare has not changed criticism. Your argument would have a much stronger case if he were ranked really high/had glowing reports and then quickly plummeted with negativity once the news of his eligibility broke.

The incentive is if he is drafted late it would discourage players from entering out of high school. I just don't trust the owners at all. I'm scared they'll collude and I'm scared they won't scout him in good faith. I hope I'm wrong.

I've watched him myself and both Maker brothers look underwhelming.

I thought Matur was supposed to be even better for his age. Is that not the case now?

I do think Thon was so overhyped that some of the criticism is an overreaction to that hype. No one wants to go out on a limb for a guy with bust potential. But no one can rule him out completely either. So he'll probably get picked higher than anyone would care to admit, all while being criticized like a #1 pick and lead to him continuing to underwhelm while still being a useful player.

I think you may be right.  He became famous due to a YouTube video and everyone thought he would be the next big thing before scouts took a good look at him.  Because of that the scouts may have overreacted by nitpicking his game missing the forest for the trees.  He's a coordinated, athletic, legit 7 footer.  He also seems to have a high motor, a good work ethic, and a good head on his shoulders.  Guys like that don't come around too often. I'm sure they are right that he doesn't have as good of a feel for the game as other high end prospects, but he didn't start playing the game until he was 14 and in the 5 years since then has moved from Sudan to Australia to America and then to Canada.

[Dino Pitino]

Hopefully he is declared eligible. It seems unfair that the nba gets to decide, it sounds like a conflict of interest. Also I have no respect for people like Chad Ford. All the criticism Thon Maker is getting sounds a lot like a smear campaign to me. I hope we draft him and I hope the nba doesn't collude and not draft him, I'm worried they will.

Some of the criticism sure is bizarre, like, how "explosive" do scouts expect a 7'1" player to need to be in the NBA with that kind of handle and range? His "feel for the game" seems...well, what the hell does that even mean? When a 7'1" player can cross defenders over, dribble behind his back, execute as quick a spin as I've ever seen anyone that tall make, and thread the needle with passes...where is the lack of "feel"? He certainly does not exhibit low BBIQ, not in that interview, and not in the video I've seen, and I've now watched most of the Maker footage there is online, including the stuff that's supposed to be embarrassing for him. I still see an amazing prospect. Garnett's dunks were more ferocious in high school and no one can match his intensity, but aside from that...if I didn't know any better...I'd still say Maker is the better prospect at that age. I don't know any better, clearly. But I wonder if these scouts do, either. Maybe they're sometimes as susceptible to bias and blinding groupthink as the mixtape fanboys? It's as if they're using a preexisting glossary of general criticisms for raw African players despite some of them not really applying at all to Maker. They might be seeing way more of him in person, but maybe they're not really seeing him?

Dino, come on.  It sounds like he's not very good.  You've never heard of "feel for the game" impacting a player?  Gerald Green was a good example of a highly athletic sharp shooter who didn't have a good feel for the game.  It took him years until he could be a reliable rotation player.

True. I do know what it means regarding a prospect like Gerald. Getting lost, making bad decisions, slow reactions, poor touch. I don't know what it means yet regarding Maker. I wonder if it's just a way for some scouts to say, "I don't have a feel for Maker's game", i.e., they can't yet visualize how he'd be used, they judge his weaknesses and idiosyncrasies more harshly because he doesn't match a model in their heads.

More likely they've watched him put up mediocre stats against wildly inferior competition.  It sounds like he'd struggle even on the d-league level.  Draftexpress ranks as the 44th best prospect in the draft.   Being tall and being able to dunk over 14 year old 5 feet tall white kids doesn't make you a phenom.

DX also says he's performed well in competition against the elite players of his class but that he wasn't dominant in the way one would hope.

Besides Portland last year, the last exposure NBA scouts have gotten to Maker came in Toronto at the NBA Basketball Without Borders Global Camp during All-Star Weekend, which we attended alongside numerous scouts and executives. Maker had a better showing there, but still did not dominate the event the way some may have expected considering he was the oldest player in attendance.

He was the oldest player there, but he also might have had the latest start to playing basketball seriously out of everyone there.

[Celtics18]

I'm not sure exactly what to make of the situation, but I've never fully trusted the scouts to be close to 100% accurate in their assessments.

I don't think it's as much to do with ulterior motives as with the fact that much of the work that goes into determining who ends up having successful NBA careers occurs after the kids are drafted.

[moiso]

Scouts are criticizing him for being skinny and having skinny legs, but...

I'm worried about Maker's hands and forearm strength. I saw a scouting report that said Maker had weak hands which has made and continues to make him a poor finisher in traffic. His lack of overall muscle concerns me far less than his supposed inability to control the ball in the paint. You need strong hands to finish in traffic, corral a rebound, etc.

TP to anyone who can provide more information on a) Maker's hands and raw strength and b) prospects in the past who have suffered the "weak hands" label and how they've fared in the pros.

The player that I think of with surprisingly small and weak hands especially for his specimen like body was Kwame Brown.  The number pick.  It was almost inconceivable that he didn't turn out better than he did.  I wonder how much the small weak hands contributed.  He had trouble catching, finishing.

[Denis998]

ESPN has us drafting him at 23.