New Marcus Smart Article

[trickybilly]

I was going to start a new thread on this, but the NBA is littered with guys who have gym junkied over offseasons and who have turned themselves into respectable shooters. It is just the wide open threes, and the very occasional early shot clock contested three that Marcus is missing at the moment. I don't blame him for the awful late in the shot-clock heaves - those are usually a result of zeller ruining a pick and roll, or evan dribbling too much.

If there is something to worry about it's his lack of court vision when he drives.

[The Oracle]

The Oracle,

Good point. Surround Smart with players who force him to do too much on offense and it's a disaster.

The only value Smart has is when both teams are equal in talent. His defensive mastery at times can change a game but throw him out there against teams like OKC or the Clips and he will kill us with his offensive struggles. He's lucky Stephens can hide him by playing him with Turner anc Olynyk. Other guys who can handle the ball and shoot. Smart is a role player at best.

As with all players they are best when their weaknesses are hidden by their teammates strengths.  Including I.T on defense, Bradley's many faults, Turner can't shoot from distance and so on.  Smart is no different people just are way overreacting. 

[rollie mass]

okc, i seem to remember him scoring 25pts and guarding westbrook one of his super games and he has them
-this kid doesn't hang his head he just digs deeper trying to impact on defense-
by the way rozier doesn't come close on defense for one big reason he gets hung up on screens,i have never seen anybody go over the top better than marcus

[TheTruth]

Rollie.

Westbrook was right. Don't get it twisted. 82 games. Smart has had 2-3 games like that in 2 years.

[TheTruth]

Oracle,

Olynyk can't rip down rebounds. Avery can't hit the roll guy on the pick and roll. Turner needs spacing on the floor to allow him to go one on one. Players are seldom perfect unless they are Lebron or Curry. However, there is a big difference between surviving a Marcus Smart offensive rotation with limited help then the other factors I listed with our other players.

IT's defense is also no where as bad as Smart's offense. It's at least serviceable.

[Donoghus]

All the screaming & yelling nonsense from the first couple of pages aside, I think Kevin makes some really good points in his article.  I certainly think the good is outweighing the bad with Smart. 

In this instant gratification age, it seems like the media & plenty of bloggers are rushing to judgement on a kid that just turned 22 years ago.   Luckily, I think Ainge, Stevens, & the organization is showing more patience with the kid.

[kozlodoev]

In this instant gratification age, it seems like the media & plenty of bloggers are rushing to judgement on a kid that just turned 22 years ago.

Yes, having to communicate with people that have no realistic perspective on who Marcus Smart will be as an NBA player will make a lot of people scream and yell.

[Donoghus]

In this instant gratification age, it seems like the media & plenty of bloggers are rushing to judgement on a kid that just turned 22 years ago.

Yes, having to communicate with people that have no realistic perspective on who Marcus Smart will be as an NBA player will make a lot of people scream and yell.

So what's the realistic perspective, Koz? 

[Ed Hollison]

Are people aware of who the past ten #6 overall picks were?

Maro Hezonja
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Galinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy

Lillard is a superstar. Gallinari is the next rung down, but took years and as change of teams to get there. Brandon Roy was great but washed out from injuries. Every other guy on there is either heavily flawed (eg. Noel) and/or still needs time.

Smart is a 22-year-old rotation player on one of the league's better teams. He's already an all-defensive-team caliber defender. As Kevin O'connor article mentions, he's visibly improved vs last year in certain regards, like his comfort ball-handling in the pick and roll. His advanced stats, even offensively, are good. He struggles shooting but by all accounts is working hard at improving.

The problem I see is mostly a lack of patience and unrealistic expectations.

[kozlodoev]

In this instant gratification age, it seems like the media & plenty of bloggers are rushing to judgement on a kid that just turned 22 years ago.

Yes, having to communicate with people that have no realistic perspective on who Marcus Smart will be as an NBA player will make a lot of people scream and yell.

So what's the realistic perspective, Koz?

Marcus Smart is a limited offensive player, whose staying power in the NBA will be defined by his production as a shutdown defender. Unfortunately for him, shutdown defense with slim to no other contribution to the team is not a valued commodity at his position, since (1) the large majority of offensive difference makers that need shutting down are too big for him to handle, and (2) his position is hardest to hide on offense.

Sure, he's 22, but people have to realize that the second coming of Tony Allen is a lot more realistic scenario for him than the second coming of Gary Payton. He'll be nice to have, but he's certainly someone you can afford to give up.

[hwangjini_1]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

well, it cant have been TOO long a time since smart has only played in 120 nba games. i think the entire point of the article is that we should not judge smart strictly on past performance since he is work in progress, and the offense part is a major work in progress.

instead, the article seems to tell us to be patient and enjoy watching him develop his game. he will probably never be a consistent, big time scorer. but that is okay.

[The Oracle]

Oracle,

Olynyk can't rip down rebounds. Avery can't hit the roll guy on the pick and roll. Turner needs spacing on the floor to allow him to go one on one. Players are seldom perfect unless they are Lebron or Curry. However, there is a big difference between surviving a Marcus Smart offensive rotation with limited help then the other factors I listed with our other players.

IT's defense is also no where as bad as Smart's offense. It's at least serviceable.

With Smart on the floor the C's this year score 103.0 points per 100 possessions.
With Smart off the floor the C's this year score 104.3 points per 100 possessions.

Statistically your argument that he is killing the offense doesn't hold water. 

Avery Bradley had some of the worst shooting charts imaginable for years and has only in recent years started learning what a good shot looks like.  He is not a very good off ball nor help defender.  He still makes critical errors at times, but he has painfully slowly gotten better over the years.

Olynyk does not rebound horribly in comparison to other players that are used in a similar way.  Look at Ibaka, Bosh, Anderson, Fry, Nowitzki, Ilyasova and the like they are all between 7 and 8 rebounds per 36, K.O. is at 7.4.  All similar players have seen a reduction in rebounding numbers over the last couple years as their usage has changed on both ends of the floor.  You can't rebound if you aren't near the hoop.  With that said he certainly could be better, but not like people think, the quality opportunities just aren't there to be a whole lot better.

No matter how much you spread the floor Turner is still not efficient.  Unless he learns to shoot 3's at a decent rate he will remain in the bottom 1/3 of all guards in efficiency.  Love the guy though and if he can get there he would be excellent to keep as a multi-tool off the bench.

It is insanely difficult to try and properly evaluate players and people(including me) try to do it with miniscule bits of information and the ever bias eye test.

[PhoSita]

Are people aware of who the past ten #6 overall picks were?

Maro Hezonja
Marcus Smart
Nerlens Noel
Damian Lillard
Jan Vesely
Ekpe Udoh
Jonny Flynn
Danilo Galinari
Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy

Lillard is a superstar. Gallinari is the next rung down, but took years and as change of teams to get there. Brandon Roy was great but washed out from injuries. Every other guy on there is either heavily flawed (eg. Noel) and/or still needs time.

Smart is a 22-year-old rotation player on one of the league's better teams. He's already an all-defensive-team caliber defender. As Kevin O'connor article mentions, he's visibly improved vs last year in certain regards, like his comfort ball-handling in the pick and roll. His advanced stats, even offensively, are good. He struggles shooting but by all accounts is working hard at improving.

The problem I see is mostly a lack of patience and unrealistic expectations.

As always, my problem with this kind of analysis is that the proper question to ask is what players were available in the general range of the #6 pick in previous drafts, not what players other teams chose at #6 specifically.

I think it's reasonable to have the expectation that a pick in the #6-10 range will turn into at least an average starter.  Ideally, an above average starter with the talent to make an All-Star game in the right situation.

Obviously not all picks in that range turn into that sort of player, but the kind of talent is very often available at #6, so failing to turn up a player of that caliber has to be regarded as a failure.

We're not there yet with Smart, but I don't think it's hyperbolic to say that there are concerning signs that Smart may never reach that level.

[Big333223]

Didn't realize this until today but Smart is 3 months younger than Buddy Hield.

His next season will be big in terms of seeing what kind of growth Smart has left in him but anyone calling for Smart to be traded or benched in favor of Terry Rozier needs to chill out.

[TheTruth]

Oracle,

I can only lead you to the water.

Turner is a far better player when the floor is spaced. He doesn't have to dribble through crowds. He is very good at creating off the dribble and pulling up for midrange jumpers. He's much more valuable than Smart.

Olynyk reaches for rebounds. He doesn't try to rip them down. He's a very flawed rebounder but his offensive skills and somewhat decent help defense, ok serviceable help D, make up for it. You can't honestly think Olynyk is an ok rebounder or strong on the glass?

Smart hitting only 23 percent from three and 34 percent overall is bad. Very bad. You put him out there with Zeller and Rozier and he gets totally exposed. His offensive numbers and plus minus stats would be awful if he was on a team just under 500.