New Marcus Smart Article

[tankcity!]

I know I've appeared to be a Marcus Smart hater on this board, but I recently read Kevin O'Connor's article on Smarts development. I think O'Connor is the best Celtics writer so I'm going to admit that I may have jumped the gun. If O'Connor thinks Smart will be fine, then there is a pretty good chance he will be. He's usually spot on with his analysis.

http://bostonceltics.about.com/od/Player-Analysis/fl/Chill-out-Marcus-Smart-is-progressing-very-well-for-the-Celtics.htm?utm_campaign=atlsocialposting_undefined&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_content=1459046109029

[Big333223]

That article is, basically, how I feel. The kid's gotta start finishing around the rim but otherwise I'm not ready to hit the panic button yet. He does so much else that's positive for the team.

[TheTruth]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

[Smitty77]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

The thing that jumps out to me about Smart (and Olynyk for that matter) is that he (they) always seems to have one of the best plus/minuses in the games.  For instance, at Phoenix, he had the second highest +/-.

http://popcornmachine.net/bs?date=20160326&game=BOSPHO

Granted, Smart has been abysmal in 5 of the last 7 games, even in plus/minus, but overall for the year, I think that he has been solid in that area.

That stat to me is the MOST important stat there is IMHO.

Smitty77

[crimson_stallion]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot or a flip. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

I agree 100%. 

Marcus Smart was a starter last year in the regular season and in the playoffs, and he's played starter minutes all of this season.

That's two full seasons at starter minutes - a hell of a lot more experience/opportunity than 90% of rookies from his draft class have had.  In fact Wiggins may be the only rookie from that draft class who has gotten more total minutes in this league. 

Totally understand if somebody argues Rozier / Mickey haven't had opportunity, but you absolutely cannot make that argument for a guy who has taken 939 FGA in 3,219 minute over 119 games - that's just silly.

Smart has actually made very little progress, which is a little worrying to me.  His shooting has gone downhill in a huge way.  His assist numbers have gone down, his assist:TO ratio has gone down.  His foul rate has gone up and he seems to be getting on the nerves of referees more than ever.

As a shooter his FG% around the basket (51%) and his three point percentage (25%) are both well beyond terrible, especially considering that both are down from his rookie year and that 74% of all his FGA come from those two areas.

On the plus side his rebounding has improved slightly (from 4.4 Reb Per 36 to 5.6 Reb Per 36), his free throw rate has improved a lot (26% to 31%) and his free throw percentage has improved significantly (from 65% to 76%) which brings some hope he can improve as a shooter. 

He isn't without promise, but he needs to get his shot selection sorted first and foremost, because right now it is really hurting the team and is making him a major liability on offense.  He's averaging over five 3PA Per 36 Minutes which is way too high for somebody with his shooting ability.  He needs to cut that in half to no more than about two 3PA per game, and he really should not be taking them unless he is dead set wide open with no better shot available.

If Smart can get his shot selection under control then I don't mind having him on the court because of all the other good things he does with his hustle and his defence, but as long as he's chucking 4 treys a game @ < 30% shooting I would honestly rather just bench him and play Rozier. 

He also needs to get his temper/attitude under control, but I'm more concerned about the shooting at this point. 

I think he'll be fine and will develop into a nice player, but I don't think he'll ever be a star.  I think he can be a solid-to-good starter though.  I think if he ends up as good a two-way player as Avery Bradley, then I'll be pretty happy with that at this point.

People put a lot of dirt on Bradley, but Bradley is an above average player on both ends of the court who has elite intangibles (motor / hustle / work ethic) with none of the temperament (anger, arguments, constant complaining) that usually goes along with that.   That's a hard package to find in a player (Rozier seems to have it too), and I hope it rubs off onto Smart.  Considering where Bradley was drafted, he really was a steal.

[alldaboston]

TP Crimson. Excellent post, as always.

[tankcity!]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot or a flip. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

I agree 100%. 

Marcus Smart was a starter last year in the regular season and in the playoffs, and he's played starter minutes all of this season.

That's two full seasons at starter minutes - a hell of a lot more experience/opportunity than 90% of rookies from his draft class have had.  In fact Wiggins may be the only rookie from that draft class who has gotten more total minutes in this league. 

Totally understand if somebody argues Rozier / Mickey haven't had opportunity, but you absolutely cannot make that argument for a guy who has taken 939 FGA in 3,219 minute over 119 games - that's just silly.

Smart has actually made very little progress, which is a little worrying to me.  His shooting has gone downhill in a huge way.  His assist numbers have gone down, his assist:TO ratio has gone down.  His foul rate has gone up and he seems to be getting on the nerves of referees more than ever.

As a shooter his FG% around the basket (51%) and his three point percentage (25%) are both well beyond terrible, especially considering that both are down from his rookie year and that 74% of all his FGA come from those two areas.

On the plus side his rebounding has improved slightly (from 4.4 Reb Per 36 to 5.6 Reb Per 36), his free throw rate has improved a lot (26% to 31%) and his free throw percentage has improved significantly (from 65% to 76%) which brings some hope he can improve as a shooter. 

He isn't without promise, but he needs to get his shot selection sorted first and foremost, because right now it is really hurting the team and is making him a major liability on offense.  He's averaging over five 3PA Per 36 Minutes which is way too high for somebody with his shooting ability.  He needs to cut that in half to no more than about two 3PA per game, and he really should not be taking them unless he is dead set wide open with no better shot available.

If Smart can get his shot selection under control then I don't mind having him on the court because of all the other good things he does with his hustle and his defence, but as long as he's chucking 4 treys a game @ < 30% shooting I would honestly rather just bench him and play Rozier. 

He also needs to get his temper/attitude under control, but I'm more concerned about the shooting at this point. 

I think he'll be fine and will develop into a nice player, but I don't think he'll ever be a star.  I think he can be a solid-to-good starter though.  I think if he ends up as good a two-way player as Avery Bradley, then I'll be pretty happy with that at this point.

People put a lot of dirt on Bradley, but Bradley is an above average player on both ends of the court who has elite intangibles (motor / hustle / work ethic) with none of the temperament (anger, arguments, constant complaining) that usually goes along with that.   That's a hard package to find in a player (Rozier seems to have it too), and I hope it rubs off onto Smart.  Considering where Bradley was drafted, he really was a steal.

I agree with everything you're saying because that is what I'm seeing. However, Kevin watches a lot of film, and he is usually right. He is basically saying Smart is progressing as expected which came as a surprise to me. I'm just saying that maybe we're judging this player too early especially if he thinks so. I think Kevin watches these players practice as well too, so he should have good insight.

[Dino Pitino]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot or a flip. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

I agree 100%. 

That's a bad sign. There's a chance that "TheTruth" is an intern hired by the Sixers or Bulls to help drive down the public perception of how valuable Celtics players are. He thinks Felger is a source of wisdom about basketball, unless that's part of the act, since that is such a ludicrous position.

Marcus Smart was a starter last year in the regular season and in the playoffs, and he's played starter minutes all of this season.

That's two full seasons at starter minutes - a hell of a lot more experience/opportunity than 90% of rookies from his draft class have had.  In fact Wiggins may be the only rookie from that draft class who has gotten more total minutes in this league. 

It's 123 games total, not quite "full". Full would be 150+ games.  He's only started 51 of those 123. Smart is seventh in both total minutes and mpg from the '14 draft class, not second.

Totally understand if somebody argues Rozier / Mickey haven't had opportunity, but you absolutely cannot make that argument for a guy who has taken 939 FGA in 3,219 minute over 119 games - that's just silly.

You're both missing the point. What he's been missing has not been field goal attempts, it's been the opportunity to run the offense.

Smart has actually made very little progress, which is a little worrying to me.  His shooting has gone downhill in a huge way.

Except for an 11 point improvement in his FT%.

His assist numbers have gone down, his assist:TO ratio has gone down.

Oh my god, BARELY. Are you for real? You actually looked up his stats and came away thinking that there was a difference in those things worth mentioning?

His foul rate has gone up and he seems to be getting on the nerves of referees more than ever.

Slightly true.

As a shooter his FG% around the basket (51%) and his three point percentage (25%) are both well beyond terrible, especially considering that both are down from his rookie year and that 74% of all his FGA come from those two areas.

Yeah, we know already. This isn't the tenth thread on Smart being a bad shooter, it's a thread about Smart being a good player despite being a bad shooter so far.

On the plus side his rebounding has improved slightly (from 4.4 Reb Per 36 to 5.6 Reb Per 36), his free throw rate has improved a lot (26% to 31%) and his free throw percentage has improved significantly (from 65% to 76%) which brings some hope he can improve as a shooter. 

How in the hell are you going to cite the microscopic change in his assist stats as a bad sign but only say his rebounding has improved slightly? "Hope"? He did improve as a shooter, because free throws are a form of shooting.

He isn't without promise, but he needs to get his shot selection sorted first and foremost, because right now it is really hurting the team and is making him a major liability on offense. 

If he were a major liability on offense then his Offensive Rating and ORPM would show that, and they don't.

He's averaging over five 3PA Per 36 Minutes which is way too high for somebody with his shooting ability.  He needs to cut that in half to no more than about two 3PA per game, and he really should not be taking them unless he is dead set wide open with no better shot available.

Unless he rediscovers the groove he was in recently for a whole month where he was hitting over 40% of those five threes a game.

If Smart can get his shot selection under control then I don't mind having him on the court because of all the other good things he does with his hustle and his defence, but as long as he's chucking 4 treys a game @ < 30% shooting I would honestly rather just bench him and play Rozier. 

You think you are smarter than Brad Stevens.

YOU ARE NOT.

YOU ARE NOT SMARTER THAN BRAD STEVENS.

He also needs to get his temper/attitude under control, but I'm more concerned about the shooting at this point. 

I think he'll be fine and will develop into a nice player, but I don't think he'll ever be a star.  I think he can be a solid-to-good starter though.  I think if he ends up as good a two-way player as Avery Bradley, then I'll be pretty happy with that at this point.

People put a lot of dirt on Bradley, but Bradley is an above average player on both ends of the court who has elite intangibles (motor / hustle / work ethic) with none of the temperament (anger, arguments, constant complaining) that usually goes along with that.   That's a hard package to find in a player (Rozier seems to have it too), and I hope it rubs off onto Smart.  Considering where Bradley was drafted, he really was a steal.

Bradley has a way below average basketball IQ. You should be worrying that maybe Smart committing more inadvisable fouls this season is the result of Avery's influence. ZERO stats, advanced or otherwise, indicate that Bradley is above average on both ends. But thanks for revealing the source of your bias. You're partial to Bradley, so you unfairly criticize Smart.

[TheTruth]

You like the word stupid I see.

[PhoSita]

I think Kevin kind of glosses over some legitimate concerns about Smart's game in this piece, presenting this as a "settle down with the hot takes, guys," opinion.

The thing is, it's not a hot take to suggest that Smart is having some pretty major struggles for a highly touted draft prospect who was, yes, supposed to be a bad shooter coming into the league, but who was also supposed to compare favorably to guys like James Harden and Tyreke Evans in terms of his ability to get to the rim and finish through or around contact.

Kevin pointed out on Twitter that a number of other 1st round guards have struggled with their shots early in their careers only to go on to be adequate on the offensive end.

The trouble is, many of the names he referenced were and are lead guards, guys entrusted to run the offense, operate with the ball in their hands most of the time, and ultimately attempt a good number of shots in the paint.

Smart, by contrast, has the shot-chart of a 3-and-D guy who can't actually shoot.  That's much more troubling than if he were running the offense, taking 25-30% of his shots from outside, and his overall field goal percentage were a couple ticks below 40%.



It's fair and accurate to point out that Smart does a lot of good things despite being a horrible scorer.  That's why he has continued to get so many minutes.  As I brought up in another thread, if you look at other guards who have played as many minutes and attempted as many shots as Smart through their first two seasons despite a poor shooting percentage, you'll notice a lot of highly regarded names.  The rest are guys who at least had a decent run in the league playing a significant defensive role.

At the same time, if we want Smart to realize the promise he showed as a top 10 draft prospect -- i.e. become not just a regular starter but an above average one -- he's going to have to develop his offensive game enough that he's not a drag on the offense.

[Rondo9]

I think Kevin kind of glosses over some legitimate concerns about Smart's game in this piece, presenting this as a "settle down with the hot takes, guys," opinion.

The thing is, it's not a hot take to suggest that Smart is having some pretty major struggles for a highly touted draft prospect who was, yes, supposed to be a bad shooter coming into the league, but who was also supposed to compare favorably to guys like James Harden and Tyreke Evans in terms of his ability to get to the rim and finish through or around contact.

Kevin pointed out on Twitter that a number of other 1st round guards have struggled with their shots early in their careers only to go on to be adequate on the offensive end.

The trouble is, many of the names he referenced were and are lead guards, guys entrusted to run the offense, operate with the ball in their hands most of the time, and ultimately attempt a good number of shots in the paint.

Smart, by contrast, has the shot-chart of a 3-and-D guy who can't actually shoot.  That's much more troubling than if he were running the offense, taking 25-30% of his shots from outside, and his overall field goal percentage were a couple ticks below 40%.

While the guys mentioned do run a significant amount of offense, Smart does spend time initiating the offense as well.

[jpotter33]

I think Kevin kind of glosses over some legitimate concerns about Smart's game in this piece, presenting this as a "settle down with the hot takes, guys," opinion.

The thing is, it's not a hot take to suggest that Smart is having some pretty major struggles for a highly touted draft prospect who was, yes, supposed to be a bad shooter coming into the league, but who was also supposed to compare favorably to guys like James Harden and Tyreke Evans in terms of his ability to get to the rim and finish through or around contact.

Kevin pointed out on Twitter that a number of other 1st round guards have struggled with their shots early in their careers only to go on to be adequate on the offensive end.

The trouble is, many of the names he referenced were and are lead guards, guys entrusted to run the offense, operate with the ball in their hands most of the time, and ultimately attempt a good number of shots in the paint.

Smart, by contrast, has the shot-chart of a 3-and-D guy who can't actually shoot.  That's much more troubling than if he were running the offense, taking 25-30% of his shots from outside, and his overall field goal percentage were a couple ticks below 40%.



It's fair and accurate to point out that Smart does a lot of good things despite being a horrible scorer.  That's why he has continued to get so many minutes.  As I brought up in another thread, if you look at other guards who have played as many minutes and attempted as many shots as Smart through their first two seasons despite a poor shooting percentage, you'll notice a lot of highly regarded names.  The rest are guys who at least had a decent run in the league playing a significant defensive role.

At the same time, if we want Smart to realize the promise he showed as a top 10 draft prospect -- i.e. become not just a regular starter but an above average one -- he's going to have to develop his offensive game enough that he's not a drag on the offense.

Now I read this a couple of days ago when it first came out, but I thought that he was saying in the article that this wouldn't be like this if he had more time as the ball-handler and facilitator. And this is something that I've seen when I've watched him, too. When he's the primary ball-handler initiating the offense, he's much better at getting everyone involved and takes way fewer threes in that role. On the flip side, when he's off the ball it seems like he feels that he has to take those threes, because he takes them rather regularly, even when he's not all that open. He really just seems to not play all that well offensively as the off guard.

 And even in my own experience as a point guard in high school, college, and rec/pickup ball, I'm HORRIBLE at playing off of the ball, because I've always played with the ball in my hands. And I'm much more comfortable at the top of the key initiating the offense rather than the wings. I think that could also play a factor in why he's been much worse the latter half of this year offensively, because that also correlates with him playing almost exclusively with other ball-handlers.

[crimson_stallion]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot or a flip. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

I agree 100%. 

That's a bad sign. There's a chance that "TheTruth" is an intern hired by the Sixers or Bulls to help drive down the public perception of how valuable Celtics players are. He thinks Felger is a source of wisdom about basketball, unless that's part of the act, since that is such a ludicrous position.

Marcus Smart was a starter last year in the regular season and in the playoffs, and he's played starter minutes all of this season.

That's two full seasons at starter minutes - a hell of a lot more experience/opportunity than 90% of rookies from his draft class have had.  In fact Wiggins may be the only rookie from that draft class who has gotten more total minutes in this league. 

It's 123 games total, not quite "full". Full would be 150+ games.  He's only started 51 of those 123. Smart is seventh in both total minutes and mpg from the '14 draft class, not second.

Totally understand if somebody argues Rozier / Mickey haven't had opportunity, but you absolutely cannot make that argument for a guy who has taken 939 FGA in 3,219 minute over 119 games - that's just silly.

You're both missing the point. What he's been missing has not been field goal attempts, it's been the opportunity to run the offense.

Smart has actually made very little progress, which is a little worrying to me.  His shooting has gone downhill in a huge way.

Except for an 11 point improvement in his FT%.

His assist numbers have gone down, his assist:TO ratio has gone down.

Oh my god, BARELY. Are you for real? You actually looked up his stats and came away thinking that there was a difference in those things worth mentioning?

His foul rate has gone up and he seems to be getting on the nerves of referees more than ever.

Slightly true.

As a shooter his FG% around the basket (51%) and his three point percentage (25%) are both well beyond terrible, especially considering that both are down from his rookie year and that 74% of all his FGA come from those two areas.

Yeah, we know already. This isn't the tenth thread on Smart being a bad shooter, it's a thread about Smart being a good player despite being a bad shooter so far.

On the plus side his rebounding has improved slightly (from 4.4 Reb Per 36 to 5.6 Reb Per 36), his free throw rate has improved a lot (26% to 31%) and his free throw percentage has improved significantly (from 65% to 76%) which brings some hope he can improve as a shooter. 

How in the hell are you going to cite the microscopic change in his assist stats as a bad sign but only say his rebounding has improved slightly? "Hope"? He did improve as a shooter, because free throws are a form of shooting.

He isn't without promise, but he needs to get his shot selection sorted first and foremost, because right now it is really hurting the team and is making him a major liability on offense. 

If he were a major liability on offense then his Offensive Rating and ORPM would show that, and they don't.

He's averaging over five 3PA Per 36 Minutes which is way too high for somebody with his shooting ability.  He needs to cut that in half to no more than about two 3PA per game, and he really should not be taking them unless he is dead set wide open with no better shot available.

Unless he rediscovers the groove he was in recently for a whole month where he was hitting over 40% of those five threes a game.

If Smart can get his shot selection under control then I don't mind having him on the court because of all the other good things he does with his hustle and his defence, but as long as he's chucking 4 treys a game @ < 30% shooting I would honestly rather just bench him and play Rozier. 

You think you are smarter than Brad Stevens.

YOU ARE NOT.

YOU ARE NOT SMARTER THAN BRAD STEVENS.

He also needs to get his temper/attitude under control, but I'm more concerned about the shooting at this point. 

I think he'll be fine and will develop into a nice player, but I don't think he'll ever be a star.  I think he can be a solid-to-good starter though.  I think if he ends up as good a two-way player as Avery Bradley, then I'll be pretty happy with that at this point.

People put a lot of dirt on Bradley, but Bradley is an above average player on both ends of the court who has elite intangibles (motor / hustle / work ethic) with none of the temperament (anger, arguments, constant complaining) that usually goes along with that.   That's a hard package to find in a player (Rozier seems to have it too), and I hope it rubs off onto Smart.  Considering where Bradley was drafted, he really was a steal.

Bradley has a way below average basketball IQ. You should be worrying that maybe Smart committing more inadvisable fouls this season is the result of Avery's influence. ZERO stats, advanced or otherwise, indicate that Bradley is above average on both ends. But thanks for revealing the source of your bias. You're partial to Bradley, so you unfairly criticize Smart.

1. I don't care who he works for or what you claim he is hired to do.  He made some points that are valid, which I agree with.  I am not going to discount everything somebody says based on a claim of them having a personal bias - if I agree with their points, then I agree with their points.  I'm not apologising for that.

2. You have got to be kidding me - you are going to nitpick about 123 games not being a full two seasons?  That's 77% of two full seasons.  A huge number of regular NBA starters don't play in more than 77% of their games each season. Fact is he's been playing regular minutes from the opening night of his rookie year, up until today - and he's averaged starting minutes (~28 MPG is typical starter minutes) over that time.  He's had an incredible amount of opportunity.

3. I'm not missing the point.  Smart has been given opportunities to run the offense, and he's done it poorly.  The reason he's not doing it more is for that reason.  We have Evan freaking Turner (hardly a natural PG) handling the PG sport over Smart the majority of the time.  If Smart inspired any confidence with his ability to play the point, then he'd be playing it more.  He hasn't, so he isn't.

4. An 11 point improvement in his FT% is something that I specifically mentioned, and I said it was nice.  HE started this season shooting horribly from the line (in the 50s) so we will see if the Free Throw % continues.  Either way 76% from the line is still only decent (not great) for a guard so it's not exactly like that SCREAMS potential.

5. Barely?  You expect ANY NBA Point Guard to improve their court feel when they go from their rookie season to their sophomore season.  IT's well know that the PG spot is a challenging position to master as a rookie.  Second year we should se a significant improvement in his assist/TO ratio - especially given he is coming off the bench (less pressure and playing against weaker competition).  The fact that the numbers have gone down at all is concerning.

6. More than just slightly true.  Evan Turner (or Zeller, cant remember which) even told Smart he needs to start praising the officials for good calls, because if he keeps complaining all the time they will get annoyed and he'll never get their respect.

7. OF course we already know it, but it's a flaw regardless.  Just because we all know it, does that make it a non issue?  Of course not.  It's well worth mentioning.

8. Rebounding improvement is slight.  4.5 REB/36 to 5.5 REB/36 is significant enough to be worth mentioning - it's not major however considering you EXPECT a rookie PG to improve his rebounding in his sophomore year. 

9.  Yes - but watching him fire up 0-5 shooting nights (giving the opponent long rebounds and possessions each time) is terrible no matter how you look at it - and he has directly lost us games with his bad foul-making decisions.  As in he has committed fouls that have led to opponent free throws which lost us the game.

10.  I didn't say I'm smarter then Brad Stevens.  Stevens has nobody else to play those minutes,, since we don't have a proper backup SG/PG other than Turner (who needs to back up Crowder at SF).  Hence no matter what happens, Smart gets those minutes by default.  But Rozier is starting to get more minutes, and he's playing solid.  If he keeps it up and Smart keeps shooting like he's competing for the "champion of brick city" title, then you will probably see Rozier starting to take over some of Smart's minutes.

11.  There are more than one ways to judge Basketball IQ.  Bradley may not understand playmaking in the best way, but at least he is smart enough to get some idea of what is / isn't a smart shot...and he tends to not lose us games with stupid fouls that give the opponents free points in crunch time.

I'm not partial towards Bradley.  I am objective.  Objectively Bradley is a FAR better player right now than Smart.  He's a better scorer.  He's a better perimeter defender.  He makes smarter decisions with and without the ball.  He doesn't miss half of his layup attempts.  He doesn't rank 3rd in the NBA in technical fouls.

Smart is better as an off ball defender, he's a better rebounder, he's a better playmaker - but still not a good one.  But he makes some stupid decisions far too often.

[Dino Pitino]

First problem I have with his analysis is that Marcus is not a point guard. He's not quick enough. He gets flustered when he's pressured high and has no help. About the only thing he does well is take care of the ball but he doesn't create with the ball when pressured. He doesn't have that skill.

Second problem is that he hasn't shown consistency in his floater in a long time. It's premature to say he has this in his game. If he's going to be able to add a consistent floater, he's gotta get a better touch. He normally does a push shot or a flip. Not the most accurate.

Third problem I have is that Marcus gets plenty of opportunities to use his skills. There are always 3-5 minute stretches when he gets to run plays and the offense usually stutters. If he showed he can do it, he would get more primary touches in the offense.

You can't say a guy getting 28 minutes needs more opportunities. There are always moments in the game he gets his chances.

I agree 100%. 

That's a bad sign. There's a chance that "TheTruth" is an intern hired by the Sixers or Bulls to help drive down the public perception of how valuable Celtics players are. He thinks Felger is a source of wisdom about basketball, unless that's part of the act, since that is such a ludicrous position.

Marcus Smart was a starter last year in the regular season and in the playoffs, and he's played starter minutes all of this season.

That's two full seasons at starter minutes - a hell of a lot more experience/opportunity than 90% of rookies from his draft class have had.  In fact Wiggins may be the only rookie from that draft class who has gotten more total minutes in this league. 

It's 123 games total, not quite "full". Full would be 150+ games.  He's only started 51 of those 123. Smart is seventh in both total minutes and mpg from the '14 draft class, not second.

Totally understand if somebody argues Rozier / Mickey haven't had opportunity, but you absolutely cannot make that argument for a guy who has taken 939 FGA in 3,219 minute over 119 games - that's just silly.

You're both missing the point. What he's been missing has not been field goal attempts, it's been the opportunity to run the offense.

Smart has actually made very little progress, which is a little worrying to me.  His shooting has gone downhill in a huge way.

Except for an 11 point improvement in his FT%.

His assist numbers have gone down, his assist:TO ratio has gone down.

Oh my god, BARELY. Are you for real? You actually looked up his stats and came away thinking that there was a difference in those things worth mentioning?

His foul rate has gone up and he seems to be getting on the nerves of referees more than ever.

Slightly true.

As a shooter his FG% around the basket (51%) and his three point percentage (25%) are both well beyond terrible, especially considering that both are down from his rookie year and that 74% of all his FGA come from those two areas.

Yeah, we know already. This isn't the tenth thread on Smart being a bad shooter, it's a thread about Smart being a good player despite being a bad shooter so far.

On the plus side his rebounding has improved slightly (from 4.4 Reb Per 36 to 5.6 Reb Per 36), his free throw rate has improved a lot (26% to 31%) and his free throw percentage has improved significantly (from 65% to 76%) which brings some hope he can improve as a shooter. 

How in the hell are you going to cite the microscopic change in his assist stats as a bad sign but only say his rebounding has improved slightly? "Hope"? He did improve as a shooter, because free throws are a form of shooting.

He isn't without promise, but he needs to get his shot selection sorted first and foremost, because right now it is really hurting the team and is making him a major liability on offense. 

If he were a major liability on offense then his Offensive Rating and ORPM would show that, and they don't.

He's averaging over five 3PA Per 36 Minutes which is way too high for somebody with his shooting ability.  He needs to cut that in half to no more than about two 3PA per game, and he really should not be taking them unless he is dead set wide open with no better shot available.

Unless he rediscovers the groove he was in recently for a whole month where he was hitting over 40% of those five threes a game.

If Smart can get his shot selection under control then I don't mind having him on the court because of all the other good things he does with his hustle and his defence, but as long as he's chucking 4 treys a game @ < 30% shooting I would honestly rather just bench him and play Rozier. 

You think you are smarter than Brad Stevens.

YOU ARE NOT.

YOU ARE NOT SMARTER THAN BRAD STEVENS.

He also needs to get his temper/attitude under control, but I'm more concerned about the shooting at this point. 

I think he'll be fine and will develop into a nice player, but I don't think he'll ever be a star.  I think he can be a solid-to-good starter though.  I think if he ends up as good a two-way player as Avery Bradley, then I'll be pretty happy with that at this point.

People put a lot of dirt on Bradley, but Bradley is an above average player on both ends of the court who has elite intangibles (motor / hustle / work ethic) with none of the temperament (anger, arguments, constant complaining) that usually goes along with that.   That's a hard package to find in a player (Rozier seems to have it too), and I hope it rubs off onto Smart.  Considering where Bradley was drafted, he really was a steal.

Bradley has a way below average basketball IQ. You should be worrying that maybe Smart committing more inadvisable fouls this season is the result of Avery's influence. ZERO stats, advanced or otherwise, indicate that Bradley is above average on both ends. But thanks for revealing the source of your bias. You're partial to Bradley, so you unfairly criticize Smart.

1. I don't care who he works for or what you claim he is hired to do.  He made some points that are valid, which I agree with.  I am not going to discount everything somebody says based on a claim of them having a personal bias - if I agree with their points, then I agree with their points.  I'm not apologising for that.

2. You have got to be kidding me - you are going to nitpick about 123 games not being a full two seasons?  That's 77% of two full seasons.  A huge number of regular NBA starters don't play in more than 77% of their games each season. Fact is he's been playing regular minutes from the opening night of his rookie year, up until today - and he's averaged starting minutes (~28 MPG is typical starter minutes) over that time.  He's had an incredible amount of opportunity.

I'm not kidding. 77% of two seasons is NOT "full", dude. He's missed time. Critical time for a rookie and sophomore. That time may have slowed his development some.

3. I'm not missing the point.  Smart has been given opportunities to run the offense, and he's done it poorly.  The reason he's not doing it more is for that reason.  We have Evan freaking Turner (hardly a natural PG) handling the PG sport over Smart the majority of the time.  If Smart inspired any confidence with his ability to play the point, then he'd be playing it more.  He hasn't, so he isn't.

He has not done it poorly, he's just not as reliable at it yet as Isaiah and Evan, two veteran ballhandlers. Smart is just the third-best at it. There is only one ball. You're understating how well Turner does it so that your case against Smart looks better.

4. An 11 point improvement in his FT% is something that I specifically mentioned, and I said it was nice.  HE started this season shooting horribly from the line (in the 50s) so we will see if the Free Throw % continues.  Either way 76% from the line is still only decent (not great) for a guard so it's not exactly like that SCREAMS potential.

Right, so now you're only impressed if his FT% is great-for-a-PG. The improvement is only "nice". Right, sure. You know, at first I was impressed by your posts, they all seemed so rational and dense, but now you're outing yourself as someone who moves goalposts and uses motivated reasoning just like anyone else if it serves your agenda.

5. Barely?  You expect ANY NBA Point Guard to improve their court feel when they go from their rookie season to their sophomore season.  IT's well know that the PG spot is a challenging position to master as a rookie.  Second year we should se a significant improvement in his assist/TO ratio - especially given he is coming off the bench (less pressure and playing against weaker competition).  The fact that the numbers have gone down at all is concerning.

Yeah, uh, this goes back to the whole still not getting much of an opportunity to BE a point guard thing that you missed the point about. Without that opportunity, there's no reason to expect his numbers there to change. And they did NOT change. They are almost EXACTLY THE SAME. They did not go down in ANY sense worth being concerned about. You know better. You are being DISHONEST.

6. More than just slightly true.  Evan Turner (or Zeller, cant remember which) even told Smart he needs to start praising the officials for good calls, because if he keeps complaining all the time they will get annoyed and he'll never get their respect.

Meh. Still only slightly true, slightly concerning.

7. OF course we already know it, but it's a flaw regardless.  Just because we all know it, does that make it a non issue?  Of course not.  It's well worth mentioning.

When the point of a thread is that a player is good despite bad shooting, then NO, it is NOT worth elaborately establishing him as a bad shooter because everyone already knows.

8. Rebounding improvement is slight.  4.5 REB/36 to 5.5 REB/36 is significant enough to be worth mentioning - it's not major however considering you EXPECT a rookie PG to improve his rebounding in his sophomore year. 

Oh my god. You are ridiculous.

9.  Yes - but watching him fire up 0-5 shooting nights (giving the opponent long rebounds and possessions each time) is terrible no matter how you look at it - and he has directly lost us games with his bad foul-making decisions.  As in he has committed fouls that have led to opponent free throws which lost us the game.

Not as often as your binkie Bradley has! Just off the top of my head, those two games that directly followed the Cavs gamewinner come to mind, where Bradley committed the dumbest foul I've ever seen to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, and then singlehandedly dug the Celtics into a 7 point hole a minute into overtime the next game with stupid fouls.

10.  I didn't say I'm smarter then Brad Stevens.  Stevens has nobody else to play those minutes,, since we don't have a proper backup SG/PG other than Turner (who needs to back up Crowder at SF).  Hence no matter what happens, Smart gets those minutes by default.  But Rozier is starting to get more minutes, and he's playing solid.  If he keeps it up and Smart keeps shooting like he's competing for the "champion of brick city" title, then you will probably see Rozier starting to take over some of Smart's minutes.

No, we won't see that, because Brad Stevens is smarter than you and realizes how good Smart is and knows enough not to get caught up in the simple box score. Smart isn't getting minutes "by default", he's getting minutes because the Celtics are better with him on the floor and he helps the team actually win games.

11.  There are more than one ways to judge Basketball IQ.  Bradley may not understand playmaking in the best way, but at least he is smart enough to get some idea of what is / isn't a smart shot...and he tends to not lose us games with stupid fouls that give the opponents free points in crunch time.

What, lol? That is EXACTLY what Bradley does! You cannot possibly be serious.

I'm not partial towards Bradley.  I am objective.  Objectively Bradley is a FAR better player right now than Smart.  He's a better scorer.  He's a better perimeter defender.  He makes smarter decisions with and without the ball.  He doesn't miss half of his layup attempts.  He doesn't rank 3rd in the NBA in technical fouls.

Technical fouls, ****? WHO. CARES.

Objective my foot. "Far better" by what metric? RPM? Nope! He's worse than Smart. Bradley's PER is slightly better, his WS/48 only a hair better.

Smart is better as an off ball defender, he's a better rebounder, he's a better playmaker - but still not a good one.  But he makes some stupid decisions far too often.

So Bradley is a better on ball defender, according to you...but his DRPM is somehow about 3 points worse than Smart's. Hmm.

[crimson_stallion]

I agree with everything you're saying because that is what I'm seeing. However, Kevin watches a lot of film, and he is usually right. He is basically saying Smart is progressing as expected which came as a surprise to me. I'm just saying that maybe we're judging this player too early especially if he thinks so. I think Kevin watches these players practice as well too, so he should have good insight.

I think it's a little bit of both to be honest.

I think people tend to look at Smart from one extreme or the other.  Either he is the prodigal son who will become an all-star and carry Boston to multiple titles...or he is a complete bum who can't shoot who will struggle to earn 10 minutes as a role player.

Personally, I think the reality is somewhat in the middle.

I think that Smart, right now, is a terrible offensive player.  Not only in general, but for a second year guard too.  You look at Aaron Gordon for example - he was never expected by ANYBODY to be a good offensive player.  Everybody thought he would be a good defender, solid rebounder, very limited offensive player.  Right now he is infinitely better offensively then Smart is.

Smart was a good scorer in college - he averaged 15 PPG his first year and 18 PG his second year.  He was a poor 3PT shooter, but was a good scorer despite that. 

Come draft day, Smart was SUPPOSED to be the most NBA ready prospect in the draft after perhaps Jabari Parker.  He was the guy who people felt might have had a bit of a lower ceiling, but a much higher floor.

So far he's struggling to outperform Elfrid Payton, who was seen as a far lesser prospect.

Defensively Smart has proven to be as good as anybody had hoped, and he's proven to be a solid rebounding guard...but everybody already knew that he would be those things.  The concerns marks were whether he'd be able to score at the NBA level, and so far he's done nothing to silence those concerns. 

I look at the NBA today and I see a league where it is EXTREMELY difficult for a guard to be effective without having some combination of:

1) A consistent jumper
b) The ability to get to (and score at) the basket
c) Above average playmaking ability
d) Above average ball handling ability
e) Exceptional athleticism

I look at Smart and I don't see any of the above.

Rondo couldn't shoot, but he made up for that by being incredibly quick and crafty with the ball, a very good finisher at the basket, and an elite passer.  Billups couldn't score at the basket early in his career, but her made up for that by being an above average passer and shooter.

Tyreke Evans couldn't shoot, but he had elite handles, excellent passing ability, and was a fantastic finisher at the basket. 

Bradley couldn't pass or handle the ball early in his career, not could he finish at the basket - but he had great athleticism, he had a nice midrange jumper, he had talent as a cutter, and he developed a dependable three point shot over time.

I look at Smart and I see a guy who isn't exceptionally quick, isn't a great ball handler, isn't a great passer (solid, but not great), struggles to finish at the basket, can't shoot with any type of consistency, isn't especially good off the ball (as a cutter) and doesn't have a midrange game. 

I look at all that and I ask myself - how is he going to score at the NBA level? What areas of his game will he develop?  I don't see his athleticism / explosiveness improving.  I don't see him improving as a cutter /slasher since that's just not his game.  I don't see him developing a midrange game since he's never really had that.  The way I see it the only tools he could potentially develop are his three point shot and his ability to finish at the basket - so we are putting a lot of faith in his ability to develop into a 'good' player at either (or both) of those areas.

So honestly, when it comes to all the talk of him becoming an all-star or borderline all-star...I once considered it, but now I just don't see it.  I just don't think he'll ever become capable enough offensively to achieve that.

However, I don't think he is doomed to and end of bench role player job either.  His defence is excellent, he's a good rebounder for a guard, and I think he could develop into a serviceable passer/playmaker.  If he can develop a usable three point shot, then I could see him working his way into a solid starter - something like Jameer Nelson, Derek Fisher.  Guys who never became big name players, but who made very valuable contributions as long-time starters on quality teams.