Marcus Smart's historical shooting ranking

[TheTruth]

Dino,

Why is the thread stupid?

His Efg percentage is not that good either for a player who shoots that many threes.

How about some discussion why the thread is stupid instead of pointing to Efg and saying he's bottom 20 all time instead of last. We can start with is bottom 20 really any less concerning than bottom 2?

Still very bad.

[hwangjini_1]

well, at least he is good in practice. now he just needs to bring it out on court. so maybe there is hope.

http://www.telegram.com/article/20160323/SPORTS/160329628

[TheTruth]

Hwang,

I think he can definitely improve but I think his ceiling is starting to become clearer.

I'm still not sold that he's stuck being a poor three point shooter. It's not like he's struggling to get clean looks and taking contested threes. So there's really no reason he can't improve there.

The dribble drives is where I think he has obvious limitations. First thing I would think he needs to work on is not over commiting on his drives. Keep the dribble and shift to an open lane instead of bulling his way in or pull up short and add a floater.

[PhoSita]

How about this list, boys and girls?

List of guards


Parameters:

- First two years in the league
- 25 years old or under
- Under 6'5''
- Playing at guard
- At least 800 field goal attempts
- Defensive Rating below 105
- Defensive Box Score Plus Minus over 1.0
- Defensive Win Shares over 4



This is the list


Dwyane Wade
Alvin Robertson
Brevin Knight
Doc Rivers
Rajon Rondo
Greg Anthony
Marcus Smart
Darrell Walker
Ricky Rubio
Johnny High



Smart's EFG / TS is comparable to Rubio and Anthony.

[TheTruth]

Phosita,

Hard list to figure out.

Do we really want Smart compared to Rubio? At the same time Dwayne Wade is in that list.

One thing I have noticed is his defensive mastery has slipped recently. He's not forcing his opponents into as many offensive fouls and turnovers lately that he did earlier in the season. My guess is he's losing focus on D because of his offensive struggles but if he doesn't start picking it up on D, he might see his minutes cut down to around 20 when Jae returns.

[Dino Pitino]

Dino,

Why is the thread stupid?

His Efg percentage is not that good either for a player who shoots that many threes.

How about some discussion why the thread is stupid instead of pointing to Efg and saying he's bottom 20 all time instead of last. We can start with is bottom 20 really any less concerning than bottom 2?

Still very bad.

I take it you didn't look carefully at the names of half the other players within 20 spots of Smart on the second list? Shall we count the All Stars and Hall of Famers?

[PhoSita]

Phosita,

Hard list to figure out.

Do we really want Smart compared to Rubio? At the same time Dwayne Wade is in that list.

One thing I have noticed is his defensive mastery has slipped recently. He's not forcing as many offensive fouls and turnovers lately that he did earlier in the season. My guess is he's losing focus on D because of his offensive struggles but if he doesn't start picking it up on D, he might see his minutes cut down to around 20 when Jae returns.

Rubio never turned into the Steve Nash clone I think many thought he could be.

But he's an advanced stats darling, because he makes plays for teammates and is a really good defender and rebounder.

Smart's similar to that, though he'll never be that kind of passer. 


I don't look at the list as a predictor of likely outcomes for Smart.  Just demonstrates that guys who earn the kind of offensive leeway Smart has gotten by virtue of playing really well in every other facet have a path to sticking around for at least 5-6 years in this league. 


My main concern with Smart is that if his offense doesn't substantially improve, his ability to make a positive impact will leave him much more quickly as soon as he loses even a quarter of a step.  He's getting by on pure reckless, self-sacrificing energy right now, plus natural ability.

[TheTruth]

Dino,

You have to add context when using stats. Someone like Carmelo and Demarcus Cousins do not shoot threes. So they don't get a boost from three that Smart would.

I think we all expect Smart to improve. He's gotta to be at rock bottom. But the FG ranking should give everyone some concern. He's second to last in the last 50 years.

Efg doesn't change the fact that he's a historically bad shooter.

[PhoSita]

My expectations for Smart now are just that he'll continue to improve and grow within the role of a bench agitator / defender / hustle guy / ball-handler-as-needed.

The Celts can definitely use a guy like that.  He'll help the team win, whether it's 10, 15, 20, or 25 minutes a night.

He's not the future lead guard of this squad, but that's alright.  He's not a bust, and he'll help the team win games for the foreseeable future.  More than you could say of Randle or Lavine or Vonleh.

Man, though.  I wish the Celts had gotten to draft Aaron Gordon.

[TheTruth]

Phosita,

Good points. Smart will always have value unless he becomes a player who shoots his team out of games. That hasn't happened yet.

My biggest worry is that Smart becomes a 40 percent shooter who jacks up 16-18 shots a game. So as long as he doesn't turn into that player he should be fine.

[Csfan1984]

Some said he should be nick named "One-for". That has been very true this year. Darnnnnn Marcus step your game up. I like his drives and when he takes his time on his shots.

One-for is seeming more and more like a a nickname that will stick.


I still like Brickmaster.  He lays bricks, and makes other players do the same.

So his mom should have named him Mason instead of Marcus.

[PhoSita]

Phosita,

Good points. Smart will always have value unless he becomes a player who shoots his team out of games. That hasn't happened yet.

My biggest worry is that Smart becomes a 40 percent shooter who jacks up 16-18 shots a game. So as long as he doesn't turn into that player he should be fine.

I'm not worried about that.  I doubt he'll ever have a large enough role in the offense as the primary ballhandler and creator to take 16-18 shots a game.

He doesn't strike me as a J.R. Smith or Nick Young type.  He's not a ball-stopper and he doesn't go out of his way to get pull-up jumpers.  He's just a 3-and-D guy with no conscience and no memory for misses, which are admirable qualities so long as his hot streaks and timely shots come frequently enough.  He needs to keep getting to the line, too.

[TheTruth]

I agree on Vonleh and Randle.

Vonleh has been pretty disappointing.

Randle has a ton of physical skills but he lacks the mental game.

LaVine on the other hand could help the Cs. He shoots 39 percent from three. He would benefit from playing on our team by the spacing he would get.

[TheTruth]

Phosita,

Smart is definitely a gunslinger. Every time he hits 2 or 3 shots you can feel that energy from him that he wants to rip off another 4-5 shots.

He's unafraid of missing shots and wants to take them. They just aren't falling but if they were he would be jacking up a ton of shots. I am pretty sure of that.

[PhoSita]

Phosita,

Smart is definitely a gunslinger. Every time he hits 2 or 3 shots you can feel that energy from him that he wants to rip off another 4-5 shots.

He's unafraid of missing shots and wants to take them. They just aren't falling but if they were he would be jacking up a ton of shots. I am pretty sure of that.

I agree, I just don't think he's likely to have the ball in his hands that much.  Plus, when he does have the ball in his hands running the offense, it's not like he spends 5-10 seconds just looking for his own shot.  He tries to run the pick and roll and create for others, takes his own shot if that's what's there.  He mostly jacks shots when he's playing off the ball and gets any sort of open look.  I think that's the only way he knows how to operate as an off-ball guy.