Could we be a lottery team?

[Chris22]

With Crowder out and Smart at the three, it's possible.

[oldtype]

Probably not. We are 5 games ahead of the Pistons with only 14 games left. Even if the absolute worst happened and we went about 4-10 with Jae missing the rest of the season, the Pistons would have to go 9-5.  That is not impossible, but highly unlikely.

[mef730]

Statistically, highly improbable. We have too much of a lead on our competitors.

Please note, I am not rooting for a lottery pick but, if we do get one, I hereby promise that either our pick or the Nets' will be #1 and the other will be #2.

Mike

[oldtype]

There's also the possibility of slipping to the eight spot and getting ourselves another first-round sweep by the Cavs, which is probably an even less appealing possibility than missing the playoffs entirely. Chicago is only a half game ahead of the Pistons and playing badly themselves though, so I don't see this happening either.

Getting caught by the pacers and having to play Toronto round 1 is probably the worst thing that could happen at this point. That's fine. I don't think it's impossible that we beat them in a seven-game series assuming that Jae is back.

Realistically all this upcoming bad stretch is going to do is take away any chance we had of home court advantage. That's certainly annoying but it's not as crippling as it could have been if we hadn't built up the head start we did before Crowder went down.

[The One]

Nah...let the Nets and the Mavs do that.   

[loco_91]

538 still has our playoff odds at >99%, so no. We could end up with the 5th seed, though, which would be really annoyimg - no 1st round home court, and a 2nd round date with Lebron and co.

[chilidawg]

There's also the possibility of slipping to the eight spot and getting ourselves another first-round sweep by the Cavs, which is probably an even less appealing possibility than missing the playoffs entirely. Chicago is only a half game ahead of the Pistons and playing badly themselves though, so I don't see this happening either.

Getting caught by the pacers and having to play Toronto round 1 is probably the worst thing that could happen at this point. That's fine. I don't think it's impossible that we beat them in a seven-game series assuming that Jae is back.

Realistically all this upcoming bad stretch is going to do is take away any chance we had of home court advantage. That's certainly annoying but it's not as crippling as it could have been if we hadn't built up the head start we did before Crowder went down.

We're still essentially in a 4 way tie for the 3-6 spots.  Don't give up quite yet there Sally.  I'm sure the Celts haven't.

[Evantime34]

I think we can go .500 the rest of the way. I expect Crowder to be back for the end stretch that will decide seeding (Miami, Charlotte, Atlanta last 3 games).

We probably lose tonight, but I expect things to start to turn around when we play Philly this weekend.

[PhoSita]

There's also the possibility of slipping to the eight spot and getting ourselves another first-round sweep by the Cavs, which is probably an even less appealing possibility than missing the playoffs entirely. Chicago is only a half game ahead of the Pistons and playing badly themselves though, so I don't see this happening either.

Getting caught by the pacers and having to play Toronto round 1 is probably the worst thing that could happen at this point. That's fine. I don't think it's impossible that we beat them in a seven-game series assuming that Jae is back.

Realistically all this upcoming bad stretch is going to do is take away any chance we had of home court advantage. That's certainly annoying but it's not as crippling as it could have been if we hadn't built up the head start we did before Crowder went down.

Big picture, falling into the bottom half of the standings and getting wiped out in the first round again wouldn't be a major deal.  Would take some wind out of the sails compared to the midpoint of the season, seeing as we'd be in sort of the same spot as we were a year ago.

Not a reason to panic or get too down, though.  We knew this team was still a few moves away from being where we really want it to be.  Plenty of encouraging signs this year, no matter what the final record is.


It's a lot easier not to get too worked up about a bottom seed playoff appearance when you've got a likely top 5 pick on the way from a different team, and the draft is weak enough that picking 15th or 16th probably isn't so different from picking 10th or 11th, unlike last year.

[Evantime34]

There's also the possibility of slipping to the eight spot and getting ourselves another first-round sweep by the Cavs, which is probably an even less appealing possibility than missing the playoffs entirely. Chicago is only a half game ahead of the Pistons and playing badly themselves though, so I don't see this happening either.

Getting caught by the pacers and having to play Toronto round 1 is probably the worst thing that could happen at this point. That's fine. I don't think it's impossible that we beat them in a seven-game series assuming that Jae is back.

Realistically all this upcoming bad stretch is going to do is take away any chance we had of home court advantage. That's certainly annoying but it's not as crippling as it could have been if we hadn't built up the head start we did before Crowder went down.

Big picture, falling into the bottom half of the standings and getting wiped out in the first round again wouldn't be a major deal.  Would take some wind out of the sails compared to the midpoint of the season, seeing as we'd be in sort of the same spot as we were a year ago.

Not a reason to panic or get too down, though.  We knew this team was still a few moves away from being where we really want it to be.  Plenty of encouraging signs this year, no matter what the final record is.


It's a lot easier not to get too worked up about a bottom seed playoff appearance when you've got a likely top 5 pick on the way from a different team, and the draft is weak enough that picking 15th or 16th probably isn't so different from picking 10th or 11th, unlike last year.

Utah is also a game out of the last playoff spot and if the Mavs don't make the playoffs, I could see them having a worse record than Washington and Detroit. When things are all said and done I think we will be picking in the 12-13 range with the Dallas pick!

Getting smoked in the first round might hurt us with Horford and Durant, but those probably aren't likely anyway.

[PhoSita]

Getting smoked in the first round might hurt us with Horford and Durant, but those probably aren't likely anyway.

Yeah.

As awesome as the pie in the sky scenario --- making it to the ECF, getting a top 2 pick in the draft courtesy of the Nets, signing Durant and then Horford, going on to world domination -- would be, I'd settle for just second part of that list.  And it's probably the most likely one to happen.


Of course if we're sitting here in 3 months and the Celts lost in 4 or 5 games in the first round, ended up with the 6th or 7th pick in the draft, and Danny couldn't make any trades happen on draft day, we might have to revisit this panic thing.  We're a long way off from that.

[hwangjini_1]

538 still has our playoff odds at >99%, so no. We could end up with the 5th seed, though, which would be really annoyimg - no 1st round home court, and a 2nd round date with Lebron and co.

true, but if this is the worst case scenario, i can live with it. the celitcs can win on the road and could take this series at least.

but let's think. after the rondo and green trades from last year, if someone had said "celtics will make the playoffs this year and in 2016." who would have believed it?

for me, the playoffs are bonus basketball for now. 

[OhioGreen]

I think we can go .500 the rest of the way. I expect Crowder to be back for the end stretch that will decide seeding (Miami, Charlotte, Atlanta last 3 games).

We probably lose tonight, but I expect things to start to turn around when we play Philly this weekend.

That's pretty pathetic when you think about it.  Generally, the SAS rest 2-3 of their starters once or twice a week and still beat(usually badly)whoever they play.  We have one starter out and hope we can beat Philly this weekend!

[PhoSita]

but let's think. after the rondo and green trades from last year, if someone had said "celtics will make the playoffs this year and in 2016." who would have believed it?

for me, the playoffs are bonus basketball for now. 

That's a fair point, and I would have had a hard time believing that statement myself immediately following the Rondo and Green trades.

However, last year the reward for making the playoffs was a sweep at the hands of LeBron and missing out on drafting a Winslow / Stanley Johnson / Myles Turner type player.

This year, if the team has a similar finish to things (i.e. out in 4-5 games in the first round), while players from the 2014 and 2015 drafts (1/3 of the roster) combine for less than 12% of the team's total minutes played, that would be frustrating to me.

[SHAQATTACK]

No IT and Crowder = lottery