ESPN top 30 draft picks based on stat projections

[Eddie20]

Ranking the Top 30 NBA draft prospects by stat projections

By Kevin Pelton
ESPN Insider


With the NCAA tournament in full swing this week, this is a great opportunity to scout draft prospects. And as we approach the end of the season, it's a good time to take a first look at my statistical projections for college players.

I've ranked the top 30 NCAA prospects based on my "consensus" projections, which combine stats and scouting. This approach leads to both some surprising results and a good prediction for how well each prospect will perform in the NBA.

To be more specific, I use both my wins above replacement player (WARP) statistical projections and each player's rank on Chad Ford's Big Board to better predict who will be successful in the NBA.

For more on how my statistical projections work, see here. Otherwise, let's start with a familiar name at No. 1.




1. Ben Simmons




LSU
Forward
Big Board: No. 1
Stats: No. 2

Consensus: 3.7 WARP

As I've discussed with Ford, the only reason Simmons isn't atop the WARP projections is the way they regress players to positional averages -- meaning that the system assumes that some of his great stats are difficult to sustain. That tends to penalize versatile players like Simmons, particularly when they only have one year of data.

Despite his disappointing finish, Simmons had one of the best freshman seasons of the one-and-done era and is the obvious No. 1 pick from a statistical standpoint.




2. Brandon Ingram




Duke
Small forward
Big Board: No. 2
Stats: No. 5

Consensus: 3.1 WARP

Where Simmons rates in the top 25 percent of prospects at his position in four different categories, Ingram only has one such strength: his shooting ability. So far, his wingspan hasn't translated into elite defensive performance in terms of box-score stats. Age does work in Ingram's favor, though: At 18, he's more than a year younger than Simmons.




3. Jamal Murray




Kentucky
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 4
Stats: No. 13

Consensus: 2.6 WARP

Don't read too much into Murray ranking 13th in projected WARP; he's only 0.2 WARP behind Ingram in fifth. Since the board is so tightly packed outside the top handful of players, the scouting consensus takes on increased importance and puts Murray third among collegians.




4. Henry Ellenson



Marquette
Power forward
Big Board: No. 5
Stats: No. 17

Consensus: 2.3 WARP

Because of his limited athleticism, I expected Ellenson to perform better in statistical projections than scouting rankings. Instead, the opposite is true. Ellenson wasn't a particularly efficient scorer at Marquette, which had an even worse season than LSU, finishing 8-10 in the Big East. Yet Ellenson still ranks fifth on Ford's Big Board.





5. Jakob Poeltl



Utah
Center
Big Board: No. 10
Stats: No. 8

Consensus: 2.2 WARP

Returning for a second season has worked out well for Poeltl, who's improved his WARP projection from 1.6 to 2.2 by developing his finishing and his distribution. A good tournament run could help his standing on draft boards, though few teams in the top 10 are in need of a traditional center.




6. Kris Dunn




Providence
Point guard
Big Board: No. 7
Stats: No. 19

Consensus: 2.1 WARP

Few prospects in this year's draft are more capable of contributing right away than Dunn, who has the highest 2016-17 projection of anyone in Ford's top 10. The one concern is whether Dunn can score efficiently after making 48 percent of his 2s and 34 percent of his 3s this season.




7. Wade Baldwin IV




Vanderbilt
Point guard
Big Board: No. 17
Stats: No. 6

Consensus: 2.0 WARP

A statistical sleeper last year, Baldwin got on the NBA's radar with a strong performance over the summer and is now a likely first-round pick. Because of his relatively low usage rate and poor finishing -- he's made less than 44 percent of his 2-point attempts -- Baldwin's upside is low, but at minimum he looks like a quality backup PG.




8. Diamond Stone




Maryland
Center
Big Board: No. 14
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 1.9 WARP

A raw freshman who played more minutes as the season went along, Stone is probably too aggressive offensively for his own good at this point, but he has the potential to grow into a larger role. He excelled on the offensive glass while struggling on the defensive boards.




9. Fred VanVleet



Wichita State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 62
Stats: No. 1

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Despite the stereotype that statistical projections hurt experienced prospects, it's VanVleet and not any of the promising freshmen who comes out best by WARP. He ranks in the top 25 percent of NBA-bound point guards in six categories: free throw rate, rebounding, assists, steals, turnover rate and avoiding fouls. Yet there's only one number that seems to matter to NBA scouts when it comes to VanVleet: his 5-foot-11 height. That's why Ford doesn't even have him being taken if everyone ahead of him were to enter the draft.




10. Marquese Chriss



Washington
Power forward
Big Board: No. 8
Stats: No. 34

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Chriss has an intriguing combination of size, athleticism and skill, which explains his rise into the top 10 of the Big Board. He's developed into a threat from the college 3-point line at 6-foot-9. Yet Chriss projects as a below-replacement NBA player next season, in large part because of his poor defensive rebounding. Chriss has grabbed defensive boards at a lower rate than 6-foot-2 teammate Andrew Andrews.




11. Buddy Hield




Oklahoma
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 9
Stats: No. 30

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Inevitably, Hield's 3-point shooting regressed a bit down the stretch, as he's made just 37 percent of his 3s over the past 10 games, his worst 10-game stretch of the season. Still, Hield is the best shooter in the draft, and that should probably make him a lottery pick and possibly a top-10 choice.




12. Denzel Valentine




Michigan State
Small forward
Big Board: No. 15
Stats: No. 18

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

Hield's slump did open the door for Valentine to reassert himself as the best player in college basketball. Per Sports-Reference.com, Valentine's 17.2 box plus-minus would be the third-best in the NCAA the past six seasons, trailing the freshmen years for Anthony Davis and Karl-Anthony Towns. His projected NBA assist rate is the best in my database for a non-point guard.





13. Tyler Ulis



Kentucky
Point guard
Big Board: No. 22
Stats: No. 11

Consensus: 1.8 WARP

At 5-foot-9, Ulis is even smaller than VanVleet, but after he won SEC Player of the Year honors, scouts seem to be coming around, and he's now considered a likely first-round pick. Among projected first-round picks, only Dunn has a better projected assist rate than Ulis.




14. Thomas Bryant



Indiana
Center
Big Board: No. 19
Stats: No. 22

Consensus: 1.6 WARP

A phenomenal finisher, Bryant has made 70.3 percent of his 2-point attempts this season and flashed the ability to create his own shot in addition to scoring out of the pick-and-roll and off lobs. He made little defensive impact in terms of steals and blocks, however, and the Hoosiers were only average at defending the paint.




15. Deyonta Davis




Michigan State
Power forward
Big Board: No. 12
Stats: No. 39

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Though he's averaged just 18.7 MPG for a deep Tom Izzo team, Davis can probably contribute right away in a reserve role as a pick-and-roll finisher and shot-blocking presence at power forward.




16. Gary Payton II



Oregon State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 42
Stats: No. 4

Consensus: 1.5 WARP

Hidden in Corvallis the past two years as a JC transfer, GPII will introduce himself to a national audience in the NCAA tournament -- particularly if the Beavers square off with Oklahoma in the round of 32 this weekend. The Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Year, Payton has developed into a playmaker this season, giving him an NBA position.





17. Chris Boucher



Oregon
Power forward
Big Board: No. 57
Stats: No. 3

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

JC transfers have been a boon to the state of Oregon the past two years. Boucher, a native of Montreal, is a rail-thin power forward (he's listed at 6-foot-10, 200) with a fascinating skill set. He's one of three players in the Sports-Reference.com database to make 30 3-pointers and block 100 shots in a season. The others? K.J. McDaniels and the late Eddie Griffin.




18. Jameel Warney



Stony Brook
Power forward
Big Board: No. 45
Stats: No. 10

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

A mid-major star worth watching this weekend, Warney will lead the Seawolves against Kentucky. He dramatically outproduced the bigger names on the opposite side, ranking in the NCAA's top 40 in 2-point percentage, offensive rebound rate, turnover rate and block rate according to KenPom.com. Warney is an undersized power forward in the DeJuan Blair mold, but with enough rim protection to possibly play center in the NBA.





19. Monte Morris



Iowa State
Point guard
Big Board: No. 46
Stats: No. 9

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

The maestro of the nation's third-best offense, Morris never turns the ball over. He had two turnovers total in a four-game stretch this season in which he played 159 of a possible 160 minutes against three teams that are top-four seeds in the NCAA tournament ... and handed out 33 assists in that span.





20. Ivan Rabb




California
Power forward
Big Board: No. 11
Stats: No. 54

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

One of two top freshmen at Cal, Rabb has had a solid but unspectacular campaign. The big factor working against his statistical projections is a relatively weak steal rate for a good athlete -- he's averaged just 0.8 steals per 40 minutes.





21. Josh Hart



Villanova
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 49
Stats: No. 7

Consensus: 1.4 WARP

Jay Wright's teams keep getting top seeds with relatively little in the way of NBA talent. When Darrun Hilliard was drafted in the second round last June, he was the second Villanova player drafted since Randy Foye and Kyle Lowry went in the first round a decade ago. Hart should add to that total. He's a high-percentage finisher (60 percent career on 2-point attempts) who is an excellent rebounder for a guard. Alas, teams might have a hard time looking past his 3-point slide from 46 percent as a sophomore to 36 percent this season.




22. Patrick McCaw



UNLV
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 52
Stats: No. 12

Consensus: 1.3 WARP

A long wing with the ability to guard multiple positions, McCaw was one of the nation's top thieves, averaging 2.5 steals per game. He excels in transition and projects as something of a Corey Brewer-type in the NBA.





23. Domantas Sabonis



Gonzaga
Power Forward
Big Board: No. 20
Stats: No. 43

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

The son of Hall of Famer Arvydas is a crafty finisher and good playmaker from the post much like his dad, along with a solid rebounder. The question with Sabonis is whether he can stretch the floor as a power forward or protect the rim well enough to play in the middle.





24. Caris LeVert




Michigan
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 26
Stats: No. 27

Consensus: 1.2 WARP

Don't read too much into LeVert's big senior year, which mostly came against a relatively weak non-conference schedule before an injury ended his career in Ann Arbor. Even before that, LeVert offered a solid combination of size for the wing, shooting ability and ballhandling.




25. Taurean Prince



Baylor
Small forward
Big Board: No. 35
Stats: No. 23

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

A big, athletic wing in the DeMarre Carroll mold, Prince has a good chance at becoming a starter if he can develop into a consistent 3-point shooter. He shot 40 percent as a junior but dropped to 35 percent beyond the arc this season.




26. Ron Baker



Wichita State
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 55
Stats: No. 14

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

The other driving force behind the Shockers' seven NCAA tournament wins the last three years (along with VanVleet), Baker has enough playmaking ability to run the point at times. A senior slump beyond the arc to 35 percent (down from 37 percent career) won't help his draft stock.





27. Grayson Allen




Duke
Shooting guard
Big Board: No. 27
Stats: No. 38

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Relatively poor performance in limited minutes as a freshman hurt Allen's projection. If we look solely at his sophomore season, he ranks virtually the same in projected WARP as on Ford's Big Board.





28. Cheick Diallo



Kansas
Power forward
Big Board: No. 31
Stats: No. 32

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

The only reason Diallo rates so well statistically is because he's played so few minutes (195) his stats get regressed heavily toward the mean. That particularly helps Diallo's 2-point percentage, a poor 55 percent this season.




29. Jarrod Uthoff



Iowa
Small forward
Big Board: No. 29
Stats: No. 37

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

Uthoff entered the season rated higher by WARP projections than scouts, but the conventional wisdom has come around to the point where that relationship has actually flipped.




30. Tyler Davis



Texas A&M
Center
Big Board: N/A
Stats: No. 16

Consensus: 1.1 WARP

The highest-rated player who doesn't appear in Ford's top 100, Davis seems like the kind of player scouts should love. He was a four-star recruit with NBA size and good athleticism. The concern is Davis has been an exceptionally weak defensive rebounder, but he's dominated the offensive glass, is shooting 64 percent from the field and has been a solid shot blocker.




Who's missing?


There are two players in the top 20 of Ford's Big Board who don't crack the top 30 of my projections even though their lofty draft stock is factored in. Let's take a closer look at these cases where the stats are much more pessimistic than scouts.


33. Jaylen Brown




California
Small forward
Big Board: No. 6
Stats: No. 121

Consensus: 0.9 WARP

Because he's been such an inefficient scorer, Brown actually projects for negative WARP in the NBA. He's made 49 percent of his 2-point attempts and a dismal 30 percent beyond the arc, numbers that were even worse before Brown improved to 50 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in conference play. That hasn't stopped Brown from finishing more than 30 percent of Cal's plays. His NBA-caliber size, strength and athleticism translated in terms of drawing fouls but Brown was an average rebounder for an NBA-bound small forward and actually below average in terms of steal rate.





67. Skal Labissiere




Kentucky
Center
Big Board: No. 16
Stats: No. 113

Consensus: 0.4 WARP

No player has a bigger gap between potential and production to date than Labissiere, who entered the season a contender to go in the top three (he was my favorite player at last year's Nike Hoop Summit, not Simmons) yet has averaged just 15.6 minutes per game. Lately, Labissiere has shown more signs of his true talent, including an 18-point, nine-rebound, six-block game against LSU. His shot blocking has been good all year. Still, Labissiere's poor defensive rebounding and terrible 2-point percentage for a college big man (52 percent) give him too a negative WARP projection.

[The One]

Regarding Jaylen and Buddy...I am shocked and chagrined!

[chilidawg]

Thanks for posting this.  Always interesting to see alternative takes on the draft.  The mocks sometime seem like group think, with no one wanting to take a controversial stance.

Scouting still really matters, especially with the freshmen you're trying to project. 

[Evantime34]

TP for posting this!

This furthers my belief that the C's should take Murray as high as 3 if he's available. This also backs up what I think of Poeltl. I'm intruiged by Brown, but I think 6 is the earliest I would pick him.

Ellenson is higher than I thought he'd be. VanFleet might be a good 2nd round sleeper.

The guys listed 10-16  are all guys I want the C's to look into (except Ullis)

[Smitty77]

Who is this kid Jameel Warney??  He put up 23 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks vs. a pretty good KY front line!!!!

I cannot find his measurements!!!!

Can someone please help me.

Smitty77

[Quetzalcoatl]

Who is this kid Jameel Warney??  He put up 23 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks vs. a pretty good KY front line!!!!

I cannot find his measurements!!!!

Can someone please help me.

Smitty77

He's 6'8" / 256 lbs

[saltlover]

I love that Fred Van Vleet is at number 9.  He won't be a first-rounder, but I hope Ainge picks him with a second.  He'll have a good career as an NBA backup point guard who makes good things happen when he's on the court.

[Smitty77]

Who is this kid Jameel Warney??  He put up 23 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks vs. a pretty good KY front line!!!!

I cannot find his measurements!!!!

Can someone please help me.

Smitty77

He's 6'8" / 256 lbs

Thanks.  I found that, but I want to know his standing reach, vertical, etc.  I guess I will have to wait until the Chicago Pre-Draft measurements.

Smitty77

[chilidawg]

I love that Fred Van Vleet is at number 9.  He won't be a first-rounder, but I hope Ainge picks him with a second.  He'll have a good career as an NBA backup point guard who makes good things happen when he's on the court.

Agree with your assessment of him, but would much rather gamble on upside with our second round picks.  Backup point guards are pretty easy to come by in the NBA, and we already have a few.

[chilidawg]

Who is this kid Jameel Warney??  He put up 23 points, 15 boards, and 2 blocks vs. a pretty good KY front line!!!!

I cannot find his measurements!!!!

Can someone please help me.

Smitty77

He's 6'8" / 256 lbs

Thanks.  I found that, but I want to know his standing reach, vertical, etc.  I guess I will have to wait until the Chicago Pre-Draft measurements.

Smitty77

Here's his Draft Express page:  http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Jameel-Warney-65615/

Doesn't list his measurables, but does describe him as having just average wingspan and athleticism.

[PhoSita]

I think my order of preference for our picks, leaving out foreigners about whom I don't know enough yet, is something like


Simmons > Ingram > Poeltl > Dunn > Murray > Hield > Ellenson > Brown > Valentine > Prince > Sabonis > Skal


I don't get how this Wade Baldwin kid can be assessed as "probably at best a solid back up point guard" and end up in the top 10 of this ranking. 

[Evantime34]

I think my order of preference for our picks, leaving out foreigners about whom I don't know enough yet, is something like


Simmons > Ingram > Poeltl > Dunn > Murray > Hield > Ellenson > Brown > Valentine > Prince > Sabonis > Skal


I don't get how this Wade Baldwin kid can be assessed as "probably at best a solid back up point guard" and end up in the top 10 of this ranking.

He's a really good spot up shooter (we are third worst in the league in spot up shooting %) and he's a good defender due to his wingspan (6'3 height but 6'10 wingspan). That wingspan allows him to defend taller players which the C's value highly.

That being said I'm not really interested in him with the Brooklyn or Mavs pick.

[CFAN38]

This gives an interesting read on Brown. I really have my worries with this kid and maintain that he is my 5th pick behind Simmons, Ingram, Bender and Poeltl.

[saltlover]

I love that Fred Van Vleet is at number 9.  He won't be a first-rounder, but I hope Ainge picks him with a second.  He'll have a good career as an NBA backup point guard who makes good things happen when he's on the court.

Agree with your assessment of him, but would much rather gamble on upside with our second round picks.  Backup point guards are pretty easy to come by in the NBA, and we already have a few.

With five second-round picks, I think we can spare one on someone who might actually be a useful player some day.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Thanks.  I found that, but I want to know his standing reach, vertical, etc.  I guess I will have to wait until the Chicago Pre-Draft measurements.

Smitty77

All I can find otherwise is this fluff piece article where someone is quoted as saying that "people don't realize [Warney] has the wingspan of a 7 footer" and he's the best passing big man that has played in their [conference?] in a long time.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/college/stony-brook/stony-brook-s-jameel-warney-has-come-a-long-way-1.11467453