Who's our best potential matchup in the first round?

[jpotter33]

Okay, there's around twenty games left for each team in the regular season, and unless we go on a catastrophic losing streak to end the season, we're in the playoffs. Further, we're most likely going to have home court advantage in the first round, most likely ending up either third or fourth overall in the East. Here are the current standings:

1. Cleveland 44-18
2. Toronto   41-20
3. Boston    38-26
4. Miami      37-26
5. Atlanta    35-28
6. Charlotte 34 -28
7. Indiana    34-30
8. Chicago   32-30
9. Detroit     32-31
10. Wash.    30-32

Most likely, we will end up either third or fourth in the East, which means that we have several potential matchups that we could end up facing in the first round. Here's how we've fared against each team this year.

Charlotte: W (Away 98-93), W (Away 102-89); 2-0
Indiana: L (Away 98-100), L (Home 91-102), W (Home 103-94); 1-2
Atlanta: W (Home 96-103), L (Away 97-121), L (Home 101-95); 1-2
Miami: W (105-95), W (101-89); 2-0
Chicago: W (Home 105-100), L (Away 101-92), W (Home 110-101); 2-1

My preference for the matchups is like this:
Charlotte - Very perimeter-oriented offense, which suits us well. Though Big Al may give us some trouble down low, he's slowed down considerably. We've also handled them pretty easily twice thus far in their own gym. I think we'd beat them in five games.

Chicago - We matchup with them very well and have played them very tough the last few years. They're also not the most athletic group and have injury concerns, though they do have a superstar in Butler that can go off at anytime. I think we'd beat them in five or six games.

Indiana - They've beat us twice so far, but that was earlier in the season when they had red-hot shooting. They've cooled off considerably since then, and we handled them pretty well in our last game against them. I do worry about George, though, because he could be tough to handle on the wing with his size, speed, and shooting. This series probably goes six or seven.

Tied for last:

Miami - We've beat them both times that we've played them, but their star power still worries me, especially with Bosh looking to come back. Whiteside down low also scares me, but we didn't have KO in our last matchup, who drew him out from the basket pretty well in the first matchup. It'd ultimately depend on Bosh's return and how he looked, but I think we'd win a tough-fought battle with them in six or seven games.

Atlanta - It's pretty much the same with Atlanta. We've shown that we can beat them in the last two years, but I'm not a big fan of this matchup. Horford is a smart defensive anchor for them, and I don't think we really have an answer for Milsap's inside-out game defensively. However, I still think we're ultimately the better team right now, because we didn't have Smart to cover Korver in one and maybe even two of the games that we've played them this year, which is significant due to how well he's stopped him in the past. I think this would be another tough-fought battle that would go six or seven games either way.

Who do you think is our best matchup and why?

[Denis998]

If the season ended like this, it would probably the best case scenario
1. Cavs
2. Raps
3. Celtics
4. Miami
5. Indy
6. Cha
7. Atl
8. Detroit
With these seedings, Bos needs to beat Cha + Atl/Tor to get to the ECF
The cavs would have to fight through Detroit (Great team since the deadline), and either Miami or Indy to get to the ECF

Cha shouldn't be too hard to beat considering that they play on the perimeter, and our guards will render them ineffective. I think we can make some runs against ATL/Tor if it comes down to that. Id probably prefer to play toronto because we usually have more trouble with big teams (like ATL)

[alldaboston]

I'd love to play Charlotte in round 1.

[max215]

Chicago. Jimmy Butler is GREAT, but he can't carry that team to postseason success single handedly. Crowder can cover him, and his defensive strengths match up with Butler's offensive skills well. We generally play Chicago well too. Also, watching Stevens get 2 days to think about how he's going to dismantle Hoiberg would be hilarious.

[Iggzilla]

Chicago or Charlotte. The Bulls look like a mess right now (they're even out of the playoff race), and our league-leading perimeter defense might be able to keep Kemba and the rest of the Hornets backcourt in check.

Both of their frontcourts could present problems for us though, as we usually struggle against teams with quality big men.

[Csfan1984]

76ers oh wait...

[Quetzalcoatl]

The refs giving superstar calls to the other team is our Achilles heel so Charlotte

[Drucci]

I'd say we will be fine with whatever opponent as long as it doesn't have a real good big man since that's our achile's heel.

So I would be OK with Indiana, Charlotte (Jefferson is too hobbled at that point to worry me) and Chicago. Miami depends on Bosh's health but even Whiteside could be troublesome.

[apc]

I liked Miami as a match up before they got Johnson ..

[greece66]

Assuming we finish third, Charlotte is IMO the best opponent.

I'd rather avoid teams with lots of playoff experience like Indy and Chicago.

(It's not that I'm sure that we finish third, but if we are to include the other possibilities- well, then all teams except TOR and CLE are potential matchups  )

[2short]

I voted Charlotte which to me is a no brainier.  I'm fine with Miami or Chicago in a series.  I feel we can wear down a lot of teams (especially older injury prone teams).  Chicago on paper seems like a tough team.  Indy is a team that I don't want to have to play, George is a star and can carry a team when it needs it

[manl_lui]

I voted Charlotte which to me is a no brainier.  I'm fine with Miami or Chicago in a series.  I feel we can wear down a lot of teams (especially older injury prone teams).  Chicago on paper seems like a tough team.  Indy is a team that I don't want to have to play, George is a star and can carry a team when it needs it

same, in that order. I think we match up a lot better against Charlotte in a 7 games series. I don't know why though, I'd put Chicago as a 2nd choice then Miami.

[chambers]

Charlotte, then Indiana. Easy match ups for us.

Bulls will be better in 20 games. Rose is coming around, Dunleavy is back and Butler should get back to form. We do not wanna play them in the first round- that's a really tough match up for us. The good news is home court.

[Tr1boy]

Outside of Cavs and raps, any team

[loco_91]

I think the battered Bulls are our best matchup. With a -1 point differential on the season, they simply aren't very good, worse than their 32-30 record would suggest. By Elo rating they are by far the worst out of the likely playoff teams at 1475 (next worst: Pacers at 1531; Celtics:1602). In fact, the Wizards (30-32) and Jazz (29-33) both have a chance to beat out the Bulls for a playoff spot, and both teams have a higher elo rating (1498, 1515) as well.

The most scary team out of the bunch is a healthy Miami, who are probably close to even with the C's on a neutral court. However, it's very unlikely that anyone will vault both us and Miami to force a first-round 4-5 matchup with Miami, and even if that does occur, then it isn't likely that Miami will be fully healthy. Thus the worst-case first round matchup imo is the Hawks, who have been playing well recently and boast a 4th-in-the-East 1563 elo.