Author Topic: If our summer...  (Read 758 times)

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If our summer...
« on: March 07, 2016, 08:18:40 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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If our summer consisted of the following would you be happy?

Draft night trade: Amir, JJ, Rozier, Young, Hunter, BRK 16 (5th pick), DAL 16 (14th pick), BRK 17 pick swap, MIN 2nd 16+17, CLE 2nd 16, MIA 2nd 16 for Cousins and Belinelli

Re-sign Sully ~$12m/yr for 4 years
Re-sign Zeller ~$8m/yr for 4 years
Re-sign Turner ~$8m/yr for 4 years

Which if my Maths is correct puts us at $80,330,982 in guaranteed salary and 11 players. In this scenario we would still have our 2016 1st round pick (23rd), the Philly pick (31st), the Dallas 2nd pick (44th). We also have the rights to Colten Iverson and Marcus Thornton.

The rotation is now:

IT/Smart
Bradley/Belinelli
Crowder/Turner
Olynyk/Mickey
Cousins/Sully/Zeller

We would still have the option of making a move up the draft board. Say 23+rights to Colton Iverson+44 for 18? Wouldn't mind a backup SF with some size for particular matchups. We would likely be under the cap going into the season To sign KD in the summer of 17 would require $35.8m which we would not be likely to have, so we would either have to clear some cap room or not resign Sully and Zeller/Turner? A rough calculation sees that we would be ~$14m short.

I think getting Cousins would be huge for us taking a step forward and I've long believed that he will be a key target on draft night. I would give up more in the package for him in terms of picks, I would not like to add any of our more experienced players but I would understand if people told me the Kings wouldn't accept a picks based offer.

You can argue that with Cousins in the fold, retaining Sully is pointless but I disagree. I think they would look good alongside each other and Sully would be a great back up for Cousins as well.

Re: If our summer...
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2016, 08:31:31 AM »

Offline loco_91

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I would be quite unhappy giving 4-year deals to both Turner and Zeller. $8m/year for Turner at least is reasonable, but it's way too much for Zeller. Turner isn't the type of guy you really want to keep paying when he's 30 and 31, so I would way rather sign him to what we gave Amir: $12m/1yr + a $12m team option on the second year. Zeller we should let walk--I'd way rather pick up our TO on Amir than re-sign him.

On the other hand, Sully at $12m/yr for 4 years I'd be very happy with. That isn't quite a bargain, but it's probably on the team-friendly side of fair. Sully has been a huge part of our success this year and he might be our third best player overall.

Re: If our summer...
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2016, 08:56:17 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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not thrilled with it.  that line-up doesn't get us a title  and we're locked into it at least through 2018.

no real help from the draft until 2018.  no $ for free agency going into 2017 when there's a much better crop of FAs expected to be available.


Re: If our summer...
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2016, 09:19:06 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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I would be quite unhappy giving 4-year deals to both Turner and Zeller. $8m/year for Turner at least is reasonable, but it's way too much for Zeller. Turner isn't the type of guy you really want to keep paying when he's 30 and 31, so I would way rather sign him to what we gave Amir: $12m/1yr + a $12m team option on the second year. Zeller we should let walk--I'd way rather pick up our TO on Amir than re-sign him.

On the other hand, Sully at $12m/yr for 4 years I'd be very happy with. That isn't quite a bargain, but it's probably on the team-friendly side of fair. Sully has been a huge part of our success this year and he might be our third best player overall.
I think it's reasonable for Zeller. It's less than Asik got, similar to what Koufos got and the cap will have risen significantly. Why is Turner not a guy to be paid at 31? If anything he should age well as his game isn't based on athleticism. For example I wouldn't want to give Howard a max this year because his athleticism will decline. If we picked up the guarantee on Amir's contract then the Cousins deal doesn't happen. So in this proposed reality would you choose Amir at $12m over Cousins and Zeller at $8m? Or just let Zeller walk and save the $8m, that sounds fine but personally I value his ability to rim run in the 4th and he is very capable as a backup center.

not thrilled with it.  that line-up doesn't get us a title  and we're locked into it at least through 2018.

no real help from the draft until 2018.  no $ for free agency going into 2017 when there's a much better crop of FAs expected to be available.
Yeah you cash in the development from the draft for a run with Cousins. It's inevitable that we consolidate something though.
The contracts that I've suggested I don't think are untradeable, if you wanted to clear some cap room for 2017 all three are easily moveable in January to recoup assets. We would also have Belinelli as a useful trade chip.

I think this is a middle of the road type summer, it's just retaining assets and making one large trade. You could replace Cousins with Griffin or Love or Anthony or Butler with one or two alterations

Re: If our summer...
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2016, 09:31:20 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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I'd be fine giving up that package for Cousins.

However, if we signed Zeller, Sully and Turner to four year contracts we are kind of locking in that Celtics team without a ton of avenues to get better. We should be saving our money to go after a guy like Horford, not pay market value for several bench guys.
DKC:  Rockets
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Players: Klay Thompson, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon
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Re: If our summer...
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2016, 09:34:05 AM »

Offline Chris22

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No Belinelli, no Cousins.

Re: If our summer...
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2016, 09:38:44 AM »

Offline slamtheking

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not thrilled with it.  that line-up doesn't get us a title  and we're locked into it at least through 2018.

no real help from the draft until 2018.  no $ for free agency going into 2017 when there's a much better crop of FAs expected to be available.
Yeah you cash in the development from the draft for a run with Cousins. It's inevitable that we consolidate something though.
The contracts that I've suggested I don't think are untradeable, if you wanted to clear some cap room for 2017 all three are easily moveable in January to recoup assets. We would also have Belinelli as a useful trade chip.

I think this is a middle of the road type summer, it's just retaining assets and making one large trade. You could replace Cousins with Griffin or Love or Anthony or Butler with one or two alterations
My hesitation is that if we're cashing in that many of our trade chips, we shouldn't be in a position to have to continue to trade to make us better.  Cousins will cost us quite a bit, no question and not a lot of objection there, it's the rest of the team that leaves me concerned.  I would still consider that front court to be in need of improvement even after that trade.   Also, IT would be our #2 player and I don't consider him to be a good #2 player on a contender. 

Re: If our summer...
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2016, 09:56:35 AM »

Offline TheSundanceKid

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not thrilled with it.  that line-up doesn't get us a title  and we're locked into it at least through 2018.

no real help from the draft until 2018.  no $ for free agency going into 2017 when there's a much better crop of FAs expected to be available.
Yeah you cash in the development from the draft for a run with Cousins. It's inevitable that we consolidate something though.
The contracts that I've suggested I don't think are untradeable, if you wanted to clear some cap room for 2017 all three are easily moveable in January to recoup assets. We would also have Belinelli as a useful trade chip.

I think this is a middle of the road type summer, it's just retaining assets and making one large trade. You could replace Cousins with Griffin or Love or Anthony or Butler with one or two alterations
My hesitation is that if we're cashing in that many of our trade chips, we shouldn't be in a position to have to continue to trade to make us better.  Cousins will cost us quite a bit, no question and not a lot of objection there, it's the rest of the team that leaves me concerned.  I would still consider that front court to be in need of improvement even after that trade.   Also, IT would be our #2 player and I don't consider him to be a good #2 player on a contender.

Yeah I'm agreed with you, that roster is definitely still one major move away from contention. I love how Danny has accumulated assets and cashing them in a major upgrade is the way to go. However if our trades give fair value then we can only obtain one star via trade without breaking up what has made us as good as we are to this point. It's led me to believe that in order for us to contend we are reliant on attracting a big name via FA. Is Horford that guy? I'm not 100% sold on that, I feel like that guy is more likely in the 2017 FA class.

My fear in letting these guys go would be that next year we may take a step back and that would be viewed negatively by prospective FAs.

I'd be fine giving up that package for Cousins.

However, if we signed Zeller, Sully and Turner to four year contracts we are kind of locking in that Celtics team without a ton of avenues to get better. We should be saving our money to go after a guy like Horford, not pay market value for several bench guys.
I hear you, it's not the most sound logic. As I stated above I'm leaning to FA as a necessity to take another step. However let me counter it by saying we make the deal for Cousins and we have 2 options;

1) Flexible cap space for a FA
2) Asset retention to make another trade for a star.

Example: K. Love becomes available, Cleveland want extra depth. Bradley + Sully + a few picks might do it.

If Danny gets the vibe this year that FA isn't looking as successful as we hope maybe option 2 becomes the safer route