Mathematical Probability Horford+Durant Don's Green

[nickagneta]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

prove it. i mean it. show me your math.

mathematical probablities are the MEASURES of the probablity of something occurring, and is most commonly measured with a number between 0 and 1. from this, you draw inferences based upon the expected frequency of events. the number and actions of variables are known.

the key is the word MEASURES, not guesses, hopes, dreams, thoughts, or that ilk. you can measure the probability of a die coming up as 1 since you a finite set of outcomes (6) all of which are equally probable. or, as with a coin flip, the probablity is MEASURED as 50% for both heads and tails based upon total number of possible variations or outcomes.

coins, dice, etc. dont have bias (at least not legally. ) therefore one can MEASURE mathematically the probable outcome of events. coins only have TWO possible outcomes and are unbiased as to which side will appear. hence the 50%.

i dont see how the factors that go into your calculations are unbiased. quite the opposite, they are by definition suppositions and assumptions by a large number of people.

if you want to say "x is more probable that y because i think this way" i have no problem with it. but let's not dress such a thing up as some sort of mathematical formula folks.

whew...my morning curmudgeonly-fit is all over now. 

Actually I think you have things backwards. In this instance, there are 30 teams from which both Horford and Durant can sign with. Therefore there is a one in 30 chance of Durant and Horford choosing any one team and the probabilities of them choosing the same team is one in 900. That's the math. That is indesputible.

But because there are human choices involved with preferences and biases, mathematics is about the worst way to determine the handicapped odds of Durant and Horford signing with the same team. It is the introduction of human bias that creates a different playing field for determining the "odds" that they both sign here. Such biases are:

Preference to maximize earnings
Preference of certain living conditions
Preference of certain working conditions

Those things, when taken into consideration narrow the choices and can come up with a different set of "odds" for determining the likelihood of Durant and. Horford choosing Boston, but it does not change the mathematical probability of them both choosing Boston. That answer is still 0.0011111

[libermaniac]

Those things, when taken into consideration narrow the choices and can come up with a different set of "odds" for determining the likelihood of Durant and. Horford choosing Boston, but it does not change the mathematical probability of them both choosing Boston. That answer is still 0.0011111

Even if 1 in 30 for each were accurate, the odds of one signing if the other has ALREADY signed jumps way up.  So, your math is off.

[boscel33]

It's why I said over the weekend, ignore KD, go after Horford and Barnes.  Barnes is restricted, so it's going to have to happen via trade, unless the C's give him a Max and GSW can't match it (not sure of rules)

[nickagneta]

Those things, when taken into consideration narrow the choices and can come up with a different set of "odds" for determining the likelihood of Durant and. Horford choosing Boston, but it does not change the mathematical probability of them both choosing Boston. That answer is still 0.0011111

Even if 1 in 30 for each were accurate, the odds of one signing if the other has ALREADY signed jumps way up.  So, your math is off.

no it really isn't

[apc]

I will be satisfied with one of the two.

[tankcity!]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

I would put Isaiah Thomas in the conversation with the above mentioned players.

Conversation, definitely.  He's obviously better than Beal.  I'd rank him ahead of Derozan too.

Isaiah has had a fantastic year. 

Lowry, Butler, George, Wall -- those guys make more of a two-way impact though, in my opinion.

You're argument is weak because most of those teams first don't have the cap flexibility to sign him, and second, they are worse than the Celtics haha, so your point makes no sense. So what if they have stars. Golden State only has one star technically and Klay Thompson is an all star, not superstar/star. Also, just a fun fact, 80% of Thompson's points this year have come off an assist. Something to keep in mind of type of impact Curry has had on his team.

[Vermont Green]

Mathematical probably and likelihood are two different things but I am not sure it makes any difference.  For example, if the Sixers play the Warriors, do the Sixers have a 50-50 chance of winning?

I think the likelihood that Kevin Durant leaves OKC is very low.  I don't know the number but it is not 29/30th.  But if he does leave, the probability that he signs with the Celtics goes from zero to something; about the same chance the Sixers (or Lakers) have of beating the GSW on any given night.

[Denis998]

Where is A Sherrod Blakely when you need him. He has experience on these kinds of things.

[pearljammer10]

Green goggles summer:

Renounce Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, ET.

Bradley, Sully (somehow s+t), Brooklyn Pick Dallas Pick Future Celtics first for Jimmy Butler.

Max Durant

Near Max or Max Horford.

IT/Rozier
Butler/Smart
Crowder/Turner
Durant/KO
Horford/Mickey

Danny's Statue would be sitting next to Reds on opening night if this happened.
Except you've already renounced Turner.

I was basing that on the fact that we would probably have to renounce Turner to get rid of his cap hold in order to have enough room to sign both Horford and Durant outright under the cap. But we could then re-sign Turner to one of the exceptions we have to offer him because we probably wouldn't be under the cap enough for a deal he would want to agree to.

[nickagneta]

Green goggles summer:

Renounce Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, ET.

Bradley, Sully (somehow s+t), Brooklyn Pick Dallas Pick Future Celtics first for Jimmy Butler.

Max Durant

Near Max or Max Horford.

IT/Rozier
Butler/Smart
Crowder/Turner
Durant/KO
Horford/Mickey

Danny's Statue would be sitting next to Reds on opening night if this happened.
Except you've already renounced Turner.

I was basing that on the fact that we would probably have to renounce Turner to get rid of his cap hold in order to have enough room to sign both Horford and Durant outright under the cap. But we could then re-sign Turner to one of the exceptions we have to offer him because we probably wouldn't be under the cap enough for a deal he would want to agree to.

I didn't think in a year that you have cap space and use it that you could then use exceptions(like the MLE or BBE, though maybe the room exception could be used, I'm not sure).

[Cman]

Mathematical probably and likelihood are two different things but I am not sure it makes any difference.  For example, if the Sixers play the Warriors, do the Sixers have a 50-50 chance of winning?

I think the likelihood that Kevin Durant leaves OKC is very low.  I don't know the number but it is not 29/30th.  But if he does leave, the probability that he signs with the Celtics goes from zero to something; about the same chance the Sixers (or Lakers) have of beating the GSW on any given night.

So you're saying its possible!?

[Cman]

Mathematical probably and likelihood are two different things but I am not sure it makes any difference.  For example, if the Sixers play the Warriors, do the Sixers have a 50-50 chance of winning?

I think the likelihood that Kevin Durant leaves OKC is very low.  I don't know the number but it is not 29/30th.  But if he does leave, the probability that he signs with the Celtics goes from zero to something; about the same chance the Sixers (or Lakers) have of beating the GSW on any given night.

So you're saying its possible!?

https://youtu.be/Wcz_kDCBTBk

[pearljammer10]

Green goggles summer:

Renounce Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, ET.

Bradley, Sully (somehow s+t), Brooklyn Pick Dallas Pick Future Celtics first for Jimmy Butler.

Max Durant

Near Max or Max Horford.

IT/Rozier
Butler/Smart
Crowder/Turner
Durant/KO
Horford/Mickey

Danny's Statue would be sitting next to Reds on opening night if this happened.
Except you've already renounced Turner.

I was basing that on the fact that we would probably have to renounce Turner to get rid of his cap hold in order to have enough room to sign both Horford and Durant outright under the cap. But we could then re-sign Turner to one of the exceptions we have to offer him because we probably wouldn't be under the cap enough for a deal he would want to agree to.

I didn't think in a year that you have cap space and use it that you could then use exceptions(like the MLE or BBE, though maybe the room exception could be used, I'm not sure).

Ah there's a good chance you're right. Well, in that case we'd have to hope that his cap hold wasn't too much that we'd have to renounce or he'd take a vet min contract. Both unlikely but still a green goggled possibility.