Mathematical Probability Horford+Durant Don's Green

[Dedalus]

Durant once claimed he wanted to be a Raptor growing up because: he wanted to be part of something "new", so, the Celtics History may work against us in this case. But, FTW, we're getting Durant, Butler, and Horford.

[nickagneta]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford. 

[slamtheking]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I'd think he'd have a much better chance joining GSW of getting to the finals each year.

I think we have as good a shot to get Horford as any other team besides Atlanta, maybe better.  Durant, well that's pie-in-the-sky optimism but I wouldn't completely rule it out.  if the C's surprise people in the playoffs (for the better) and we get lucky in the lottery so that we can either use it to add a top prospect or trade the pick for another top player, I could see a strong pitch being made by Danny to woo Durant.  I still think he's 90% likely to resign in OKC though no matter what offers other teams make.

[Moranis]

I just don't see Durant coming to Boston.  I think there is almost a 0% chance of it.  I just don't see why he would leave OKC to come to Boston when he could go to Washington, Golden State, or various other places that have more high end talent already in place. 

Horford, though, I think has a pretty decent chance of ending up here. 

[Celtics18]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

[nickagneta]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

Vegas odds of something happening and the mathematical probability of something happening are two different things.

[Celtics18]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

Vegas odds of something happening and the mathematical probability of something happening are two different things.

It doesn't make sense to do the "mathematical odds" on something like this and assigning equal value to each team.  We aren't talking about a random occurrence here.  The exercise is silly.

[Denis998]

i think durant misses wearing a green uniform

[nickagneta]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

Vegas odds of something happening and the mathematical probability of something happening are two different things.

It doesn't make sense to do the "mathematical odds" on something like this and assigning equal value to each team.  We aren't talking about a random occurrence here.  The exercise is silly.

I am not the one that brought up the mathematical probabilities of the situation. I'm just the guy that provided the real answer.

In an 8 horse race the Vegas odds for the favorite could be even money or a 1 in 2 chance of winning. But the mathematical probabilities of that horse winning is 1 in 8 chances because before the race starts every horse has an equal chance of winning.

Maybe the OP is looking for people to give their handicapped odds of landing these players. But he mentioned mathematical probability and sorry, but my math is right.

[Celtics18]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

Vegas odds of something happening and the mathematical probability of something happening are two different things.

It doesn't make sense to do the "mathematical odds" on something like this and assigning equal value to each team.  We aren't talking about a random occurrence here.  The exercise is silly.

I am not the one that brought up the mathematical probabilities of the situation. I'm just the guy that provided the real answer.

In an 8 horse race the Vegas odds for the favorite could be even money or a 1 in 2 chance of winning. But the mathematical probabilities of that horse winning is 1 in 8 chances because before the race starts every horse has an equal chance of winning.

Maybe the OP is looking for people to give their handicapped odds of landing these players. But he mentioned mathematical probability and sorry, but my math is right.

Sure, you're math is right.  I'm glad you came along to set everyone straight on this.

Despite that math lesson, I still think Boston could be an attractive destination for Kevin Durant; a good young team with a good young coach, a great fan base, and a history and legacy that still makes it a team that media would love to put back in the spotlight.

[Moranis]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

I have no idea how Kevin Durant feels about being a Celtic.  But I am fairly certain that not all NBA teams have even odds of landing him.

Vegas odds of something happening and the mathematical probability of something happening are two different things.

It doesn't make sense to do the "mathematical odds" on something like this and assigning equal value to each team.  We aren't talking about a random occurrence here.  The exercise is silly.

I am not the one that brought up the mathematical probabilities of the situation. I'm just the guy that provided the real answer.

In an 8 horse race the Vegas odds for the favorite could be even money or a 1 in 2 chance of winning. But the mathematical probabilities of that horse winning is 1 in 8 chances because before the race starts every horse has an equal chance of winning.

Maybe the OP is looking for people to give their handicapped odds of landing these players. But he mentioned mathematical probability and sorry, but my math is right.

Yeah but that is silly in that case because there are teams that can only offer minimum contracts to both Durant and Horford (like Cleveland).  The number of teams that can offer max or near max contracts to both Durant and Horford is probably under 10.  Again, I get that every team can offer them minimum contracts, but they aren't signing for minimum contracts.

[trickybilly]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

 Out of those teams listed, Only The Raptor's may offer a better fit, chance to win. But alas he'd still fight for his shots with Lowry and Derozan, and If Derozan leaves then The Celtics are better.

 Bradley is a perfect compliment to Durant, Crowder guards the toughest opponent, Smart can guard any other guard.

 Not to mention he must notice boy genius Stevens getting awesome shots for all our "average" players and wonder what he could do her.

 Wizards are a joke they cancelled themselves out already. George Durant would be interesting but there gonna battle for alpha status.

 Here KD can be the undisputed Alpha with a nice Second in Isaiah.

Yeah, he is far more likely to see crowder, smart, and avery as the lures; and knowing that IT will pick up the   offensive slack in his new 6th man role

[hwangjini_1]

Chance of Durant choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Horford choosing the Celtics is 1 in 30 which is 3.333%

Chance of Durant and Horford both choosing the Celtics is 1 in 900 which is 0.111%

Those are your real and true mathematical probabilities of the events occurring.

Doesn't actually inspire hope, does it?

BTW, just to put this in perspective it is 5 times more likely that a 14h worse team in the league wins the draft lottery than it is the Celtics landing both Durant and Horford.

prove it. i mean it. show me your math.

mathematical probablities are the MEASURES of the probablity of something occurring, and is most commonly measured with a number between 0 and 1. from this, you draw inferences based upon the expected frequency of events. the number and actions of variables are known.

the key is the word MEASURES, not guesses, hopes, dreams, thoughts, or that ilk. you can measure the probability of a die coming up as 1 since you a finite set of outcomes (6) all of which are equally probable. or, as with a coin flip, the probablity is MEASURED as 50% for both heads and tails based upon total number of possible variations or outcomes.

coins, dice, etc. dont have bias (at least not legally. ) therefore one can MEASURE mathematically the probable outcome of events. coins only have TWO possible outcomes and are unbiased as to which side will appear. hence the 50%.

i dont see how the factors that go into your calculations are unbiased. quite the opposite, they are by definition suppositions and assumptions by a large number of people.

if you want to say "x is more probable that y because i think this way" i have no problem with it. but let's not dress such a thing up as some sort of mathematical formula folks.

whew...my morning curmudgeonly-fit is all over now. 

[fairweatherfan]

The mathematical probability of Stephen Curry winning MVP next year is exactly the same as Terry Rozier winning it.  It's science   

[hwangjini_1]

The mathematical probability of Stephen Curry winning MVP next year is exactly the same as Terry Rozier winning it.  It's science   

if it is science, then you are able to demonstrate your methods publicly and others will be able to acheive the same findings using those methods.

go ahead....my curmudgeon-moment isnt quite over yet.