Mathematical Probability Horford+Durant Don's Green

[fairweatherfan]

They both probably have fairly extensive wardrobes...green's not the most popular color but I'd imagine they've at least got one green outfit each.  So I'd say ~95%. 

If it's them both wearing green at the same time I'd go with 10-80%, depending on how into St. Patrick's Day they are.

[PhoSita]

They both probably have fairly extensive wardrobes...green's not the most popular color but I'd imagine they've at least got one green outfit each.  So I'd say ~95%. 

If it's them both wearing green at the same time I'd go with 10-80%, depending on how into St. Patrick's Day they are.

[PhoSita]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

[Celtics18]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

I would put Isaiah Thomas in the conversation with the above mentioned players.

[PhoSita]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

I would put Isaiah Thomas in the conversation with the above mentioned players.

Conversation, definitely.  He's obviously better than Beal.  I'd rank him ahead of Derozan too.

Isaiah has had a fantastic year. 

Lowry, Butler, George, Wall -- those guys make more of a two-way impact though, in my opinion.

[86MaxwellSmart]

Green goggles summer:

Renounce Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, ET.

Bradley, Sully (somehow s+t), Brooklyn Pick Dallas Pick Future Celtics first for Jimmy Butler.

Max Durant

Near Max or Max Horford.

IT/Rozier
Butler/Smart
Crowder/Turner
Durant/KO
Horford/Mickey

Danny's Statue would be sitting next to Reds on opening night if this happened.
Except you've already renounced Turner.

[Vox_Populi]

I would be surprised if Durant went to teams that are borderline .500. The Celtics are just better than the Bulls, Pacers and Wizards.

There are also, obviously, diminishing returns in the consolidation of high usage players. You lose some of their overall impact. The Celtics could basically get near 100% of Durant's effectiveness since he'd clearly be the primary option.

[Celtics18]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

I would put Isaiah Thomas in the conversation with the above mentioned players.

Conversation, definitely.  He's obviously better than Beal.  I'd rank him ahead of Derozan too.

Isaiah has had a fantastic year. 

Lowry, Butler, George, Wall -- those guys make more of a two-way impact though, in my opinion.

Lowry's 30, I love the Jimmy Butler story, but I'm not convinced he's a bigger talent than Isaiah, Paul George plays the same position as Durant.

John Wall's an amazing talent . . . and he plays in Durant's hometown.  The Wizards are a good choice, but so is Boston.  We'll see what he does.  He's always said he really likes it in Oklahoma.

Should be interesting.

[Ilikesports17]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

I would put Isaiah Thomas in the conversation with the above mentioned players.

Conversation, definitely.  He's obviously better than Beal.  I'd rank him ahead of Derozan too.

Isaiah has had a fantastic year. 

Lowry, Butler, George, Wall -- those guys make more of a two-way impact though, in my opinion.

Lowry's 30, I love the Jimmy Butler story, but I'm not convinced he's a bigger talent than Isaiah, Paul George plays the same position as Durant.

John Wall's an amazing talent . . . and he plays in Durant's hometown.  The Wizards are a good choice, but so is Boston.  We'll see what he does.  He's always said he really likes it in Oklahoma.

Should be interesting.

Washington sucking this year I think makes it very unlikely for them to land Durant. With Chicago all of a sudden looking like they could miss the playoffs doesn't bode well for them either.

Toronto is one that I'm a bit worried about.

[KG Living Legend]

I think that combo is an extremely low likelihood.

Seems like there's a decent chance of getting Horford.  Not sure who the second guy would be.

A lot probably depends on what happens in the playoffs and how the ping pong balls fall.

 Wouldn't you agree Pho that if Durant did in fact come here, basketball wise it would be a perfect fit and he would have a hard time finding a better destination to reach the Finals each year.

I agree that the Eastern Conference would make his path to the Finals much easier than the West.

I'm not sure the Celts offer him the best opportunity for that. 

Personally, I don't believe for a moment he's leaving OKC unless Russ does first.

But putting that aside, for the sake of argument, let's assume he can go to whatever East team he wants. 

In that case, I'd say his best bet would be to go to a team that already has at least one top player on it.  A supporting cast is nice and important, but winning playoff series are about having the best 2-3 guys on the floor as often as possible.

So ... Washington (Wall, Beal) ... Indiana (George) ... Chicago (Butler) ... Toronto (Lowry, Derozan).

 Out of those teams listed, Only The Raptor's may offer a better fit, chance to win. But alas he'd still fight for his shots with Lowry and Derozan, and If Derozan leaves then The Celtics are better.

 Bradley is a perfect compliment to Durant, Crowder guards the toughest opponent, Smart can guard any other guard.

 Not to mention he must notice boy genius Stevens getting awesome shots for all our "average" players and wonder what he could do her.

 Wizards are a joke they cancelled themselves out already. George Durant would be interesting but there gonna battle for alpha status.

 Here KD can be the undisputed Alpha with a nice Second in Isaiah.

[Rosco917]

A lot depends of how OKC finishes the season, and how the Celtics finish the season. If OKC get knocked out earlier than expected, and the C's extend deeper than expected, it improves our odds.

The key is to convince Durant that by switching to the East it gives him a much better chance to get to the finals. He could remain in the West and be a brides maid for 3-4 more years. The Warriors are a relativity young team. 

Other than the Cavs there are no real "special" teams to contend with. Add Kevin to the Celtic roster, and add a suitable center, and we can more than contend with the Cavs. (Lebron has a ton of miles on him, he's due to begin breaking down, Love?...please, Irving can't do it alone.)

Sell Kevin Durant on the Celtic lore, the mystic, the banners hanging from the rafters, the fans. If some stars line up...we have a some chance. 

 

[JBcat]

Green goggles summer:

Renounce Amir, Jerebko, Zeller, ET.

Bradley, Sully (somehow s+t), Brooklyn Pick Dallas Pick Future Celtics first for Jimmy Butler.

Max Durant

Near Max or Max Horford.

IT/Rozier
Butler/Smart
Crowder/Turner
Durant/KO
Horford/Mickey

Hmm Our rebounding might hurt a little.  Say if we are trading for Bulter instead of Love I'd like to keep Sully.  I honestly think Bradley, the Nets pick and the other picks should do it.  Don't re-sign until Sully after all the other moves are done, and we can can go over the cap with his bird rights. (I think we can do that).  Do the same with Turner.

So my lineup would be:
IT/Smart/Rozier
Butler/Turner
Durant/Crowder
Sully/Mickey
Horford/KO

Crowder will play lots of the 4 in small ball lineups.  Look to sign Noah on a minimum contract if he is willing to do so.

[TheSundanceKid]

I'm leaning towards Durant doing a 1+1 and becoming a FA in 2017, too much money to cash in on. So 0%

I can see us netting a top level FA this summer though. Could be Beal, Horford, Barnes from the FA pool. Or Butler, Cousins or Love vis trade. We'll see another step forward next year and then be a serious player for Durant in 2017

[Celtics4ever]

3%

[LooseCannon]

Would Durant care if he was unlikely to play more than 33mpg under Stevens and never sniff a scoring title again?