Well, this one threw me a bit.
Jamal Murray at 4 and Skal at 16? I'd jump on Skal if he were still around at 16, but I'm not so sure about that first one...
Mike
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
As Kevin Pelton and I noted last week, Brandon Ingram has closed the gap between himself and Simmons. And in some ways, Ingram is a better fit with the Sixers.
They will have a smooth, elite passing 4 in Dario Saric -- when he comes to the U.S. -- and Philadelphia desperately needs shooting. Ingram is much better from deep than Simmons.
2016 NBA draft
Get ready for Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and the 2016 draft with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
Big Board 5.0 | Mock Draft 3.0
Ranking best fits for Simmons
Ford: Top 100 prospect rankings
Ford-Pelton: Buddy Hield
However, all indications from NBA scouts and GMs are that Simmons remains firmly in the lead for the No. 1 pick, wherever it lands, including Philly.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 25 percent, 13-69
Watch: Ben Simmons highlights Video
2. Los Angeles Lakers*
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
The Lakers must send this pick to the 76ers if it falls to fourth or worse in the lottery. Finishing with the second-worst record would give them a 56 percent chance of keeping this pick.
Ingram's elite talent -- as well as his fit on a Lakers roster that could really use an upgrade at the 3 -- would make this a home run pick for the Lakers.
EDITOR'S PICKS
No. 1 pick: Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram?
Has Duke's Brandon Ingram surpassed LSU's Ben Simmons for 2016's top pick? Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton debate the NBA future of the draft's top two prospects.
If D'Angelo Russell continues to improve, they'd have two dynamic scorers to build around.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 19.9 percent, 17-65
Watch: Brandon Ingram highlights Video
3. Phoenix Suns
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
The Suns dumped starting 4 Markieff Morris at the trade deadline, opening up a perfect fit for Bender here.
Like Morris, Bender has the potential to play both inside and outside. He's shooting 48 percent from 3 this year. His playing time has been pretty limited since injuring his ankle in January, but the upside is clearly there. And unlike Morris, there are no off-court concerns. His character is one of his best selling points to NBA teams.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 15.6 percent, 23-59
4. Boston Celtics*
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The Celtics would have a tough choice here between Murray, Kris Dunn, Henry Ellenson and Jaylen Brown. You could make an argument for all of them.
But Murray's positional versatility, jump shot (33-for-64 from 3 in his past seven games), ultra-competitiveness and high basketball IQ might give him the nod for Danny Ainge, who prizes all of those characteristics.
He's not an elite athlete, and his defense can still use work, but Murray's strengths are heavily outweighing his weaknesses at the moment.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nets): 11.9 percent, 24-58
Watch: Jamal Murray highlights Video
5. Minnesota Timberwolves*
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
Minnesota is loaded with young talent but is struggling to compete with the other elite teams in the West and looks destined to land yet another top-5 pick.
The Wolves already have a number of young players they love -- Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad -- but they could still use some help at the 4.
Ellenson is a perfect fit as a big who can rebound and spread the floor. Think of him as a poor man's Kevin Love.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 8.8 percent, 27-55
Watch: Henry Ellenson highlights Video
6. Denver Nuggets*
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
Denver owns the right to swap picks with the Knicks this year, and given how close their projected records are, it could be a tossup on which pick the Nuggets will end up using.
Brown's elite athletic abilities are what get teams excited. His 3-point shot and tendency to turn the ball over at an unusually high rate for a forward is what's keeping him out of the top 5 right now.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 6.3 percent, 33-49
7. New Orleans Pelicans
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
Hield is having the best season in college basketball this year and has rocketed up the Big Board from a late first-round pick at the start of the season to a top-10 pick now.
He could be a great fit in New Orleans. Eric Gordon is a free agent, and Pelicans head coach Alvin Gentry wants to surround Anthony Davis with shooters. Hield has been the most prolific shooter in college basketball this season and could add some instant firepower to the Pelicans' offense.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 4.3 percent, 34-48
8. Milwaukee Bucks
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
Head coach and de facto GM Jason Kidd is still searching for a point guard that can really turn things around for the Bucks.
Brandon Knight wasn't it. Michael Carter-Williams is a major question mark. Dunn, who could go as high as No. 4, seems like a terrific value here. He's big and athletic, and he sees the floor. His jump shot is the only thing holding him back.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 2.8 percent, 34-48
9. Toronto Raptors*
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Raptors get the worse of either the Knicks or Nuggets' first-round picks this year -- a huge boon to a team projected to finish with 53 wins, especially when you factor in that they gave up Andrea Bargnani to get this pick.
Poeltl has the talent of a top-6 pick. I could see both Milwaukee and Toronto taking long looks at him. He has been terrific all year. While a center is far from the most pressing need for the Raptors, the value is so high, it's hard to see them passing on him.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Knicks): 1.7 percent, 34-48
10. Sacramento Kings*
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Forward
The Kings still have major questions in the backcourt. Ben McLemore, Marco Belinelli and James Anderson just haven't been up to the task at the 2.
While the Kings aren't likely to rely on a rookie to improve their playoff odds next season, Korkmaz is a talent worth investing in. He is shooting 48 percent from 3 and has the prototypical size and skills of an NBA 2.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.1 percent, 35-47
11. Orlando Magic
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
Chriss is a pretty big gamble this high in the draft, but his combination of size, athletic ability, versatility, jump shooting and shot-blocking skills make him a unique prospect.
He could be an excellent fit next to Nikola Vucevic in the paint. He won't be ready right away, but I think he could be a potent addition to the Magic if they can be patient and continue to develop him. He has as much upside as anyone left on the board.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.8 percent, 36-46
12. Washington Wizards
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Davis is another raw prospect. However, his athleticism and shot-blocking skills are coveted by scouts, and he has shown semblances of a solid midrange game this year.
This is an upside pick all the way for the Wizards, but as they showed last year when they drafted Kelly Oubre, they aren't afraid to roll the dice.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.7 percent, 39-43
13. Houston Rockets*
Diamond Stone
Maryland
Freshman
Center
Houston is fighting Utah for that last spot in the Western Conference playoffs. The only upside for the Rockets falling short of the postseason is that they would avoid sending this pick to Denver.
With Dwight Howard's future very much up in the air, Stone would be a nice get for the Rockets. He might be the most offensively polished center in the draft.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.6 percent, 40-42
14. Detroit Pistons
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center
The Pistons are also caught in a very tight race for the Eastern Conference playoffs. If they fall short, they can add another young big with significant upside.
Rabb has proved to be an effective rebounder and has added a nice midrange jumper to his game. He needs to get stronger, but I could see him as an Ed Davis-type player in the pros.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.5 percent, 42-40
15. Utah Jazz
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Valentine was considered a second-round pick by most scouts after his junior season, but his strong play as a senior has now put him on the cusp of the lottery.
He looks like a terrific fit in Utah for a team that needs to continue to add shooting and passing on the wing. The Jazz would value Valentine's basketball IQ and versatility too. The fact that he's ready to come in and contribute right now is a bonus.
Projected record: 40-42
16. Boston Celtics*
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward
Danny Ainge isn't afraid to gamble. This is the Celtics' second pick of the draft, and they can afford to take a risk.
On his play alone, Labissiere doesn't deserve to be drafted in the first round, but scouts continue to see so much upside. His ability to both block shots and stretch the floor is intriguing.
Projected record (via Mavericks): 41-41
17. Portland Trail Blazers*
Timothe Luwawu
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward
The Blazers are the biggest surprise in the NBA this season. Their backcourt has been elite, but they could use some help on the wing.
Luwawu has been terrific for Mega Leks, averaging 15 points per game and shooting 38 percent from 3 in the Adriatic League. His strength and toughness give him some major defensive upside, as well.
Projected record (via Heat): 41-41
18. Chicago Bulls
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
Derrick Rose is still struggling to play like his old self. With Kirk Hinrich gone, the team needs to start thinking about adding a young player who can help out at the point.
Baldwin has been up-and-down all year, but his size and shooting ability make him intriguing to scouts.
Projected record: 42-40
19. Charlotte Hornets
Caris LeVert
Michigan
Senior
Guard/forward
The Hornets added Courtney Lee at the trade deadline to shore up their depth at the wing, but he's a free agent this summer, and LeVert may be a better long-term fit.
He has missed 14 out of the past 15 games with a lower leg injury. Still, his ability to shoot the ball, play three positions and see the floor make him an interesting prospect if he can convince teams that he can stay healthy.
Projected record:44-38
20. Indiana Pacers
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Jackson is a tough, athletic point guard who gets it done on both ends. His jump shot has been a bit shaky this year compared to previous seasons, but he projects by most scouts as a solid starter or really good No. 2 point guard in the league.
He would be a nice backup to George Hill next year.
Projected record: 45-37
21. Atlanta Hawks
Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 18
Center/forward
Jeanne is another major upside play. He's not ready yet -- both painfully thin and lacking experience playing at the highest level. But his freakish size (7-foot-3 with a 7-foot-7 wingspan), agility and skill set make him too good to pass up once you start getting out of the lottery.
Projected record (via Rockets): 45-37
22. Memphis Grizzlies
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Freshman
Center
Bryant's lack of foot speed and elite athleticism hurt his stock, but the guy is money in the paint and has a jump shot that stretches all the way to the 3-point line.
I'm not sure who he guards at the next level, but scouts see upside in him outside the lottery. The Grizzlies could sure use some help off the bench in the paint.
Projected record: 45-37
23. Philadelphia 76ers*
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Murray is such an intriguing prospect. On sheer upside, only Jamal Murray and Kris Dunn surpass him. Blessed with size, athleticism and a flair for the dramatic, he has plenty of scouts drooling about his potential.
However, his lack of a consistent jump shot and his penchant for turnovers give pause. He's not ready, but the Sixers are patient, and at this point in the draft, few players have such a high ceiling.
Projected record (via Heat): 45-37
24. Boston Celtics
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
Zizic would be the fifth international player off the board. The Celtics are projected to have three first-round picks at the moment, and I doubt they keep all three.
Zizic is already an elite rebounder, excellent athlete for his size and the perfect draft-and-stash candidate here.
Projected record: 48-34
25. Los Angeles Clippers
Grayson Allen
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
Allen might be a bit undersized, but he has put on a scoring clinic at Duke this season. He is an athletic freak, shoots well and can even play on the ball.
We know how Doc Rivers feels about former Dukies. This should be a good fit.
Projected record: 53-29
26. Toronto Raptors
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
The Raptors could use a power forward, and few players can match Sabonis' numbers.
His lack of athleticism or a 3-point shot are hurting his stock a bit, but he's one of the best rebounders in the draft and has an incredible basketball IQ. I think this is a steal at No. 26.
Projected record: 55-27
27. Philadelphia 76ers*
Isaiah Cordinier
France
Age: 19
Guard
This would be the Sixers' third first-round pick, and I wouldn't be surprised if they -- like the Celtics -- decided to use it on an international player.
Cordinier is aggressive and athletic. He's also starting to show some major improvement on his jump shot, hitting a crazy 55.6 percent from 3 in the French league this year. He could be good value here at No. 27.
Projected record: 55-27
28. Phoenix Suns
Damian Jones
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center/forward
Jones hasn't had the season NBA scouts were hoping for, but he is big and athletic and looks the part. He just hasn't put it all together yet on a nightly basis.
Still, he's a solid value at this point in the draft.
Projected record (via Cavaliers): 58-24
29. San Antonio Spurs
Stephen Zimmerman
UNLV
Freshman
Center
Zimmerman has been a very good rebounder and solid shot blocker for UNLV, while flashing some perimeter skills. He hasn't had the great freshman year NBA scouts wanted -- and needs to add toughness -- but he's a nice get here.
Projected record: 68-14
30. Golden State Warriors
Jarrod Uthoff
Iowa
Senior
Forward
Utoff is having a fantastic season. He is an athletic wing who can shoot the ball from deep and block shots. He's a really dynamic player who should fit well in the Warriors' system.
Projected record: 72-10
