Is the rising cap killing the trade market?

[Boris Badenov]

I wonder whether the rising cap is slowing down trade deadline activity, and whether this will keep happening for the near term.

i can see this operating a few ways. Fewer teams need to acquire expiring contracts, because they will have room to pursue free agents anyway.

Fewer teams are looking to unload "bad" contracts because with the cap exploding soon, almost any existing deal looks good going forward.

Seems like supply and demand are both down. It's interesting because there are certainly enough star players who are at least somewhat on the market : Howard, Horford, Griffin, Love etc.

Interested to hear others' thoughts.

[Csfan1984]

Absolutely but it's a good thing. Was pretty sad a few years ago when teams were dumping 1st round picks and rookies in unloading bad contracts for just cap space. Believe that was a huge black eye to the NBA system. Rather have teams strictly making trades based on talent.

[saltlover]

The Golden State Warriors are killing the trade market.  No one, except the Spurs and the Cavs, really think they can beat them.  So what's the point of adding even a very good player on an expiring if the result is inevitable?

[Yenohb]

The Golden State Warriors are killing the trade market.  No one, except the Spurs and the Cavs, really think they can beat them.  So what's the point of adding even a very good player on an expiring if the result is inevitable?

This.

[heyvik]

yup.

[mahonedog88]

Adam Silver recently said that depending on how this summer goes, there could be a major shift in the rules of how teams are constructed.  He sort of implied that he really doesn't want to see another super team made through free agency.

Every once and awhile a certain move is made, and the league reacts and inputs a new rule so that it can't happen again.  Like when Lebron and Bosh both signed in Miami, they installed a new tax rule so avoid stuff like that happening.  There was the Antoine Walker rule from back in 2004, when he was traded to the Hawks I think it was, he was cut, and then immediately signed back with the Celtics.

Say if Durant signs with the Warriors this summer and the Warriors are still able to keep Curry, Thompson, and Green, Silver pretty much said that'd be the worst thing for the NBA and he would institute a rule after the fact so something like that doesn't happen again.

[Fan from VT]

1. Expanding cap is one issue. First, more teams will have capspace, so why give up assets to get a guy you could sign. Second, if you have a guy on a long term contract now, he will be "Underpaid" under the new cap so keep him. Likewise, if a guy is NOT on a long term contract, no one wants him because he may bolt and/or become pain under the NEW cap, and not be a bargain any more.

2. The CBA itself discourages trades. First, they have shortened contracts, so there are far fewer burdensome mistakes to dump, and rebuilds can happen much faster. Before, it seemed like people didn't want to acquire a player because they had too many years left; now it seems like no one wants to give assets for a player because they are free agents soon.

3. They got rid of sign and trades and extend-and-trades. This has really dampened down the market; remember the KG deal wouldn't have happened, from either side, without the extension as part of the trade. Now it makes NO SENSE for players to agree to an extension because they can make much more money by becoming a FA and resigning, even if they never intend to leave the team.

4. Because of the above issues, draft picks are more valuable, and if draft picks are hoarded, there are fewer trades. Draft picks are more valuable because you essentially get a minimum 5 years of cheap player, and, realistically, more like 8-9 years of total team control (4 years cost control; 4-5 years 1st post-rookie deal, almost always with the team that drafted them unless the team doesn't want the player).

[LooseCannon]

The rising cap has decreased the willingness of teams to trade for desirable players on expiring contracts because a lot of those players are insisting on hitting free agency and exploring the market in an attempt to cash in.

[BudweiserCeltic]

That's what I've been saying for over a year. Even with disgruntled players, the incentive to move good players is quite low.

More than that, the incentive to acquire good players in final years of their contract is also lower now because of the exploding cap and what they will cost to keep.

And on top of that, the value of expiring contracts to help teams financially are also low.

[nickagneta]

This is most likely a two to three year aberration. The new television deal was the cause of the massive salary cap hike and another deal like that isn't coming around for a while so for a couple years things will play out differently than they had before. But once teams overspend like crazy this year and next and pay middle of the road talent exorbitant salaries and max out their cap, things will go back to being the way they have in the past. Once the cap starts increasing in only minor increments, we will see financially based trades becoming an important way to build teams once more

[SHAQATTACK]

The Golden State Warriors are killing the trade market.  No one, except the Spurs and the Cavs, really think they can beat them.  So what's the point of adding even a very good player on an expiring if the result is inevitable?

Yup ....everybody else is playing for runner up spit.

I think it even MORE narrower than the Warriors killing the market......it is Curry himself ......the human scoring machine .....dude can put up 40-50 a game ....as easy as LeBron has 25 .

Curry Scoring is basically unstoppable .....if you double or triple team him.......the others finish at the rim.

[Donoghus]

Hasn't killed it.  Just changed the dynamics of it.  What was once valuable (expirings) aren't & what once was undesirable (current long-term deals) look much more appealing.

[biggs]

It's crazy, I had this same thought while reading the "worst deadline ever" thread, which also crossed my mind before reading it.

Synchronicity! Good ol' collective conciousness.

Silver is right that Durant to the Warriors would be horrible for the league. That's the problem with the rising cap, the rich only get richer.

If the trade market dries up, how would a team like CLE get out of the hot mess of a roster that they currently have? Oh yeah, more spending.

Look at a team like San Antonio. Their big three all took discounts to play together and they were able to add Aldridge, which almost seems unfair given their previous talent level. Now, with the rising cap, teams like Golden State can keep their big three together, (in their primes albeit), and add another max contract! That is insane!

Also- Danny has built this team for a trade, so if the market dries up, and powerhouse teams just get more powerful, that doesn't bode well for a team like us (no superstar and built for a trade).

If the deadline comes and goes and nothing happens, we better hold onto that Brooklyn pick, because sadly, it's our best chance at a superstar.

I'm very interested in Silver's "fix" as well. How does he prevent an NBA monopoly?

[Boris Badenov]

This is most likely a two to three year aberration. The new television deal was the cause of the massive salary cap hike and another deal like that isn't coming around for a while so for a couple years things will play out differently than they had before. But once teams overspend like crazy this year and next and pay middle of the road talent exorbitant salaries and max out their cap, things will go back to being the way they have in the past. Once the cap starts increasing in only minor increments, we will see financially based trades becoming an important way to build teams once more

I agree somewhat.

I do think that players and teams have become savvier, and that we will see fewer of the really bad cap-killing deals that used to be so integral at the deadline for various reasons.

[nickagneta]

This is most likely a two to three year aberration. The new television deal was the cause of the massive salary cap hike and another deal like that isn't coming around for a while so for a couple years things will play out differently than they had before. But once teams overspend like crazy this year and next and pay middle of the road talent exorbitant salaries and max out their cap, things will go back to being the way they have in the past. Once the cap starts increasing in only minor increments, we will see financially based trades becoming an important way to build teams once more

I agree somewhat.

I do think that players and teams have become savvier, and that we will see fewer of the really bad cap-killing deals that used to be so integral at the deadline for various reasons.

I don't know. The owners locked out the players because they couldn't control their own spending ways. Now the have to spend at minimum $90 million per team as early as the 2017-18 season. The owners will be spending freely once more and players are going to get paid way more than they should. It's going to happen.