Article by Matt Moore of CBS. "Danny Ainge doesn't overpay."

[Yoki_IsTheName]

I stumbled upon this article from CBS Sports by Matt Moore, a guy I listen to a lot on the Eye On Basketball Podcast and I can gauge is a good basketball writer.

He had an interesting take on the Celtics and Danny Ainge and his trading policies and history. He had a take on how he isn't willing to overpay for any deal, his reputation as a guy who always wins the trades and why that could be one factor as to why we have a hard time trading for stars.

http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-basketball/25484515/nba-trade-deadline-think-twice-before-dealing-with-danny-ainge-celtics

That "price tag" component is big here. GM Danny Ainge does not overpay; it's just not what he does. However, the only thing that the Celtics are in search of is a star player, and in the NBA, you have to overpay. The Rockets managed to get James Harden for a song because of Harden's contract situation, and even then Houston gave up a promising young player, a pick, and a veteran, which was a pretty decent haul considering how badly OKC's leverage was compromised.

The Celtics, however, seem to be playing the "Look, if you want to get rid of a star, that's fine, but we'll only give you this extra stuff we have lying around." David Lee's expiring $15 million contract is not a valuable trade chip. The picks that are not the Nets' unprotected picks are not great trade chips, especially in a weak draft.

What are your thoughts?

[SHAQATTACK]

Very much correct .

Danny's players are going UP in value .....Smart , Crowder ...etc.

WHY in the world would you use them on a minor level move .

You don't

You wait till they are really show cased and in their best play off experienced form , to,see what BIG fish you might land .

If I'm DA .....he is in the drivers seat .  ......wait till the panick unfolds this summer ....

I praying he stays where he is at ....just waves Lee and sits tight and enjoys the playoffs.

[max215]

tl;dr: Danny Ainge is good at his job.

[Denis998]

Lesson for the other teams GM:
If DA agrees to a trade, take your current assets and RUN!

[Yoki_IsTheName]

tl;dr: Danny Ainge is good at his job.

Basically, the article is suggesting that he's too good that either he won't overpay for trades or other teams are afraid to do deals with him, hindering our chances of landing that star player via trade.

[jpotter33]

I mean, I guess that's true to an extent. But what real stars have been available in the last several years? He sure seemed to pay whatever the price took to get KG and Ray.

Until we see a star that fits our system that Danny let go by the wayside due to the price, I don't think this is really anything more than speculation.

Am I missing any potential stars that we could've had via trade the last several years?

I do think some GMs just don't really want to deal with Ainge due to his track record, though.

[PhoSita]

Sometimes there's strategic value in overpaying -- for example, when you have way too many draft picks to roster all of the players, so you know you'll be under pressure to reach for draft-and-stash guys. 

Also, when you've got a lot of guys who are more productive than their contract value, you can afford to take on players who are "overpaid."

Anyway, I've sometimes felt that Ainge tries too hard to get a "great deal" on his trade pieces, which might result in some missed opportunities, or waiting longer than necessary to get a deal done (e.g. Rondo). 

It's very nice, though, to not have to worry that the GM is going to waste the team's best assets on an incremental move. 

[LarBrd33]

He will overpay for a guy he wants.  He was ready to give up 4 first rounders including this year's Brooklyn pick for Winslow (according to Simmons)

[crimson_stallion]

I mean, I guess that's true to an extent. But what real stars have been available in the last several years? He sure seemed to pay whatever the price took to get KG and Ray.

Until we see a star that fits our system that Danny let go by the wayside due to the price, I don't think this is really anything more than speculation.

Am I missing any potential stars that we could've had via trade the last several years?

I do think some GMs just don't really want to deal with Ainge due to his track record, though.

Exactly.

I don't think it's that Danny doesn't overpay...I think the more correct statement would be that Danny doesn't overpay for marginal talent.

If Danny had an opportunity to get Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Lebron James, etc - then I suspect he would probably give up all three Brooklyn picks, and Smart, and Crowder...and do it without hesitation.

But the guys that are being dangled (Horford, Love, Howard, etc) are not game changers.  They are the type of players who would transform us from a #3 seed to a team that can compete with the Spurs and Warriors.  I think Howard could maybe make us good enough to compete with Clevleand, but we'd still have no chance against Warriors and Spurs most likely.

There's the whole argument about adding these guys in order to boost our FA attractiveness, but to be fair we already:

* Are a top 3 team in the East, despite modest talent
* Have owners with big pockets and a GM is an absolute mastermind
* Have a coach that seemingly everybody wants to play for
* Have tons of cap space for next season
* Have an almost certain top 5 pick in next years' draft, along with almost certain top 15 picks in 2017 and 2018

Maybe making the East finals might add to our intrigue (which we might still be able to do as we are) but Danny's stance is that there is no point in massively overspending unless it's going to push us into a legitimate championship contender, and I completely understand that. 

Especially when you have a core of guys that are playing so well, which makes the risk of a deal very high.  We are #3 right now - what if we traded productive players for a guy like Love/Horford, then that guy got injured for the season, and we dropped back to 6th or 7th?  If anything that could hurt out free agent attractability.

So I do totally get Danny's methods.  If you're playing well, then don't change it unless somebody throws you an offer you can't refuse.

[crimson_stallion]

He will overpay for a guy he wants.  He was ready to give up 4 first rounders including this year's Brooklyn pick for Winslow (according to Simmons)

Oh how bad that would have been in hindsight...that would have been an absolute disaster.

To think people were criticising Danny about it!

[Quetzalcoatl]

He will overpay for a guy he wants.  He was ready to give up 4 first rounders including this year's Brooklyn pick for Winslow (according to Simmons)

Technically he didn't overpay though

[wiley]

I think it's really the Brooklyn deal that is driving this kind of talk.  That deal has put the Celtics
in the position of appearing rich, like a satisfied cat waiting to pounce, maybe today maybe tomorrow. 

The picks that would have been given up for Winslow are not given more attention because they
were a small dent in a vast supply.  But there is is, an overpay offered up 8 months ago.

He will pay plenty, overpay, etc..when he really wants something bad enough.
Still take two to make the deal, as Jordan proved.

[RockinRyA]

Im a supporter of Ainge, but he did overpay before- Scal comes to mind.

[crimson_stallion]

Sometimes there's strategic value in overpaying -- for example, when you have way too many draft picks to roster all of the players, so you know you'll be under pressure to reach for draft-and-stash guys.   

I have a suspicion that Danny wants to hold on to as many picks and assets so that he can maintain maximum flexibility on draft day. 

This gives him a backup plan if the Nets pick disappoints and falls in the 4-6 range.  He can then try to package that pick with additional picks (or players) to try and move up into the top 2.

It also gives him the option of trying to swing that pick in a S&T for an established veteran (e.g. Horford, Dwight, Love) if there isn't a player in that range he really likes.  A pick in the 4-6 range is still very valuable, and could probably go a long way in bringing back a player of that caliber.

This is why it makes so little sense for Danny to trade the pick right now.  I don't think it's so much a matter of Ainge not wanting to spend, so much as Ainge wanting to maintain flexibility.

Why trade a pick that has the potential to go #1 for a borderline all star (like Horford/Dwight/Love) on a team that wants to go in another direction, when the worst-case scenario for that pick (#5 - #7) is probably still going to be enough to get you that player on draft night anyway? 

If that is all you're going to get offered, then you may as well just wait it out until you know exactly where the pick lies, and make your move then.  No sense in rushing and risking overpaying if you don't need to.

[alldaboston]

He will overpay for a guy he wants.  He was ready to give up 4 first rounders including this year's Brooklyn pick for Winslow (according to Simmons)

Steve kyler said there was no Brooklyn pick involved. It was 4 picks around the mid 20s area, or projected to be around there.