Big Board 5.0

[mef730]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14764209/chad-ford-big-board-50-nba-draft-2016

Have to admit, I don't know that much about Ellenson, but looks like he'd kinda be in our zone.

I'm assuming the Nets end up as the fourth worst team. In that case, we have a:

35% chance of the #5 pick
16% chance of the #6 pick
13% chance of the #3 pick

Mike

1. Ben Simmons

Previous rank: No. 1
LSU
Freshman
Forward

Simmons hasn't really moved the needle in either direction in recent weeks. All the strengths remain: the court vision, the rebounding, the basketball IQ, the scoring in the paint. The same goes for his major weakness, that rarely seen jump shot.

Regardless, his ceiling is very high and the floor is pretty high too. Among scouts, he's still the unanimous No. 1 pick.

Watch: Ben Simmons highlights Video
2. Brandon Ingram

Previous rank: No. 2
Duke
Freshman
Forward

Ingram's hot shooting streak has come to an end. He's 6-for-18 in the past four games from 3-point range and just 19-for-47 from the field. That has halted the "Ingram for No. 1 pick" bandwagon that was just getting rolling.

He may ultimately have more upside than Simmons because of his deep shooting ability, but his inconsistency and lack of strength make him a riskier pick than Simmons.

Watch: Brandon Ingram highlights Video
3. Dragan Bender

Previous rank: No. 3
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center

Bender suffered an ankle injury and missed several weeks of action before returning against Maccabi Haifa to score 12 points and grab five rebounds in 17 minutes on Feb. 6.

I went to Maccabi practice while Bender was injured and only got to see him in shooting drills. What I saw impressed me. But what impressed me more was the way his coach and general manager spoke about him as a person -- he's the real deal off the court.

It remains to be seen if he's the real deal on it. But given his size and skill set, he looks like the ideal stretch-4 in the NBA.
4. Henry Ellenson

Previous rank: No. 4
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center

Ellenson has put up some big numbers lately, including 32 points, 10 boards and 6 blocks against Butler, then 26 points and 16 rebounds against Providence. His ability to do it all at such a young age bodes well for his future.

While his 3-point shot continues to be a bit erratic, there's little question he has the tools to be a lethal stretch-4 with time. It may become a very tough choice for scouts between Ellenson and Bender.

Watch: Henry Ellenson highlights Video
5. Kris Dunn

Previous rank: No. 5
Providence
Junior
Guard

Dunn continues to look like the best point guard prospect in the class, though a recent hot streak from Kentucky's Jamal Murray has reignited the debate.

Dunn is big and quick, with terrific court vision and a 3-point shot that has been falling with more regularity. After a slow start, he's now shooting 37 percent from 3-point range.
6. Jaylen Brown

Previous rank: No. 6
Cal
Freshman
Forward

Brown continues to improve his game as the season goes on, averaging 19 points per game over his past five.

His jump shot continues to be a bit shaky, but he's excelling right now by employing his athleticism and big body to get to the line. He has taken 10 or more free throws in four straight games for Cal.
7. Jakob Poeltl

Previous rank: No. 7
Utah
Sophomore
Center

Poeltl has scored 20 points or more in five of his past six games, including a 29-point, 10-rebound, 4-assist performance against Washington. Not much is sexy about his game, but fluid 7-footers with good hands who can run the floor and rebound will always have a place in the NBA.
8. Jamal Murray

Previous rank: No. 8
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

Murray has been on fire, scoring 35 points against Florida and another 24 points against Georgia and shooting a crazy 14-for-20 from beyond the arc in those two games.

Scouts have been looking to see more point guard skills than he has shown, but his high basketball IQ and ability to score from anywhere on the floor should make him a lock for the top 10.

Watch: Jamal Murray highlights Video
9. Buddy Hield

Previous rank: No. 14
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard

Seniors aren't supposed to rocket into the lottery, but Hield continues to defy the odds. He has moved from the early second round at the start of the season all the way into the top 10.

He might not be done. He has shot a remarkable 50 percent from 3-point land this season while taking more than eight 3s a game. Many of those shots have been huge for the Sooners, with the game on the line.

He's the most fearless player in college basketball, and scouts seem to be getting comfortable overlooking his age and lack of size for position. Doing that has come back to bite NBA teams in past drafts, which is why it's hard for seniors to rise. But given the way Hield has played this season and his renowned work ethic, it's hard to bet against him.
10. Furkan Korkmaz

Previous rank: No. 9
Turkey
Age: 18
Forward

Korkmaz continues to impress with his shooting ability, hitting 41 percent on 3s in Euroleague play and an even more impressive 48 percent in the Turkish league.

Given his ideal size for his position, and the NBA's desire for 2-guards who can stroke the 3, he could play his way into the top 10.
11. Ivan Rabb

Previous rank: No. 12
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center

Rabb continues to deliver a steady diet of 10 to 13 points a night and seven to 10 rebounds with a few blocked shots sprinkled in. It's nothing to get overly excited about, but his consistency and room for growth (most scouts think he'll continue to improve both his body and his shooting range) make him worthy of a pick this high.
12. Diamond Stone

Previous rank: No. 13
Maryland
Freshman
Center

Stone has slowly worked his way up the Big Board with his steady play for one of the best teams in the country.

Very little is flashy about his game. He's an old-school big man who can really score in the paint.

A decade ago, he could have been a top-five pick. With the way the NBA has changed, his stock won't get quite that high despite a strong freshman campaign.
13. Skal Labissiere

Previous rank: No. 10
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward

Labissiere has been better over the past month. Marginally better. He's starting to play with more confidence. He's getting, and hitting, more shots on the perimeter. Compared to how he looked a month ago, he and Kentucky fans have to be happy.

Based on his upside, he might go in the lottery. But he's still a long way from what scouts thought he could be, and most of them hope he'll return to Kentucky for another year of development.
14. Marquese Chriss

Previous rank: No. 29
Washington
Freshman
Forward

Chriss is the fastest riser on our Big Board 5.0. The 18-year-old forward has been on a tear lately, averaging nearly 20 points per game over his past four Pac-12 contests, including an impressive 24 points against Utah on Wednesday.

He's very raw still. But his length, athleticism and versatility have scouts drooling. If he can keep up this play the rest of the year, he should be a surprise lottery pick.
15. Wade Baldwin IV

Previous rank: No. 11
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard

Baldwin continues to intrigue. His elite length, strength and shooting ability are all major plusses for scouts.

At the same time, his difficulties creating off the dribble against top opponents, questionable decision-making and so-so athleticism mean there is debate about just how good he'll be in the NBA. We're splitting the difference here at No. 15.
16. Timothe Luwawu

Previous rank: No. 15
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward

Luwawu's stock continues to hold pretty steady. His athleticism, length and defense are his calling cards. But his 15.5 points per game and 39 percent shooting from 3-point range for Mega Leks have him in position to be a potential lottery pick.
17. Deyonta Davis

Previous rank: No. 17
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward

Davis is a pure upside play. His length, shot-blocking ability and ability to step out and hit midrange jumpers appeal to scouts. His role has been pretty limited for Michigan State offensively, but defensively, he has been a monster.

He probably should return for another year of school. But if he does declare, he has a shot at the lottery.
18. Thomas Bryant

Previous rank: No. 19
Indiana
Freshman
Center

Bryant had the best game of his career a couple of weeks ago against Minnesota, scoring 23 points and grabbing eight rebounds in a win. He has range out to the 3-point line (and is shooting 56 percent on 2-point jumpers), but what has made him so devastatingly effective this season is his super-high shooting percentage at the rim, where he currently is at 78 percent.
19. Demetrius Jackson

Previous rank: No. 18
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard

Jackson's shooting woes have caused his draft stock to dip a bit. One of his main strengths was his ability to shoot 40-plus percent from 3 his first two seasons. That has dipped to 34 percent this year, including a recent slump in which he has shot 3-for-21 in his past four games.
20. Jonathan Jeanne

Previous rank: No. 20
France
Age: 18
Center/forward

Jeanne is a draft-and-stash pick, a huge, skilled forward who lacks the strength or game experience to make an NBA impact right away.

Ideally, he will stay in France a few more years and eat lots and lots of cheese. But if he declares for the draft, he'll likely go in the mid-first round, I'm told.
21. Caris LeVert

Previous rank: No. 16
Michigan
Senior
Guard/forward

LeVert hasn't played since Dec. 30 -- he injured his lower left leg and his return has been somewhat of a mystery. He has been cleared to play, according to coach John Beilein, but LeVert hasn't felt he's ready yet.

He has been practicing with the team and should be back shortly. If he can resume his strong play, his versatility should get him into the middle of the first round.
22. Denzel Valentine

Previous rank: No. 25
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard

Valentine has bounced back from a minor knee injury and continued his terrific senior season. He's a versatile player who can shoot, create off the dribble, rebound and is a natural floor leader.

His lack of elite athleticism and size are obvious concerns, but teams don't want to pass on a guy who could become another Draymond Green.
23. Domantas Sabonis

Previous rank: No. 30
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward

Sabonis has been a double-double machine for Gonzaga. He has one of the highest basketball IQs of anyone in the country. He's shooting a terrific 73 percent in the paint and 47 percent on 2-point jumpers.

But will his lack of length and athleticism stunt his production in the NBA? That's the question.
24. Grayson Allen

Previous rank: No. 23
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

Allen is shooting 44 percent from 3-point land, averages more than 20 points and plays with toughness on both ends of the floor. He's also good for a SportsCenter Top 10 highlight on a regular basis.

He's a little undersized, but I'm a bit surprised he hasn't risen higher.
25. Ante Zizic

Previous rank: N/A
Croatia
Age: 19
Center

Zizic is coming off a career-high 23-point, 11-rebound game against Mega Leks in an Adriatic League game. That's impressive stuff for a 19-year-old playing in a pro league in the Balkans.

For the season Zizic is averaging 12.3 PPG, 7.3 RPG and 1.2 BPG for Cibona. His length, athleticism and motor make him a very appealing pick. Don't be surprised if he climbs considerably on the Big Board before the draft.
26. Malik Beasley

Previous rank: N/A
Florida State
Freshman
Guard

Scouts are hunting for shooters with athleticism, and Beasley fits the bill. He's shooting 42 percent from 3 as a freshman and is a finisher at the rim, shooting an excellent 73 percent when he gets to the basket. The midrange game needs some work, but he's a terrific prospect.
27. Jarrod Uthoff

Previous rank: N/A
Iowa
Senior
Forward

Like Hield, Uthoff is a senior having a breakout season. The numbers Uthoff is putting up are pretty crazy -- 19 PPG, 45 percent shooting from 3-point range and 2.9 blocks per game, nearly unheard of for a small forward.

His ability to close out on shooters is remarkable. He leads the NCAA in blocking 3-point shots. As more and more scouts warm to him, he is a big tournament away from moving even higher on the board.
28. Dejounte Murray

Previous rank: N/A
Washington
Freshman
Guard

Murray can be a wild man on the court. But that would be a 6-foot-5, athletic, aggressive wild man who, when he's on, can wow you.

He's shooting 28 percent on his 2-point jumpers and just 30 percent from 3-point range, so there are major things to work on. But the raw talent really excites scouts.
29. Monte Morris

Previous rank: N/A
Iowa State
Junior
Guard

Morris is the opposite of Murray. He's so steady that he's easy to forget. With a fantastic 7-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, he might be the best floor leader in the draft.

His lack of elite athleticism is a concern, but as a backup point guard, Morris could be a real steal for an NBA team.
30. Gary Payton II

Previous rank: No. 21
Oregon State
Senior
Guard

For opponents, Payton is a nightmare on the defensive end. It's his questionable jump shot that hurts his draft stock. Given his age (23), there are questions about whether he's going to ever get it going.
Next five in

Cheick Diallo, F, Fr., Kansas; Zhou Qi, C, China; Taurean Prince, F, Sr., Baylor; Melo Trimble, PG, So., Maryland; Isaiah Cornier, SG, France.

[loco_91]

My top picks:

1. Simmons (So he's a non-stretch 4 - so what? Plus, his 69%FT isn't bad.)

gap

2. Ingram (67%FT. Is he really as good a shooter as reputed?)
3. Brown (mediocre steal rate and shooting, but he's very explosive and he may be able to guard PF's. And what PF can guard him?)
4. Dunn (is his shooting improvement real? Will he learn to finish vs length? Threatens to be an eFG% disaster, but plenty of upside with tools + steal rate.)
5. Bender (sounds awesome on paper, looks awesome in highlight reels, but does anyone really know how good he is?)

gap

6. Poetl (not much upside on offense, but still an easy top-10 pick on defense)
7. Hield (if he maintains his torrid offensive pace, he could rise even higher. Or, he'll regress toward his career averages and drop out of the top 10).
8. Ellenson (not much upside on defense, and his offense is much less sure than Poetl's D. Shooting 28% from 3 - is he really a stretch 4?)

...

Late lotto: Zhou Qi and Jonathan Jeanne. (7'2 with a 7'7 wingspan... when will people learn to value outlier size?)

[KG Living Legend]

 Tp for posting Mef, Ellenson I go back and fourth on. His FG% is not good for a 6'10" guy. Other than that he's impressive.

[alldaboston]

I think Luwawu and Valentine will end up being steals

[chilidawg]

Every time I read these lists there are 1 or 2 new euros on them that I've never heard of before.   Zizic and Cornier are the latest two on this list.  Petr Cornelie and Paul Zipser make the latest Draft Express mocks.  Seems like there is so much uncertainty about these guys, but I'm guessing we draft a couple of them with our early 2nd round picks.

The bit about Ingram cooling off seemed odd as I saw him against Virginia, a really good defensive team, this weekend and he was scorching.  I checked his game log and it looked like he had two off games last week, but his last two were good again.  Maybe this list is a little old.

[arctic 3.0]

lots of interesting prospects in late lottery and mid draft.
I think this area of the board is going to shuffle a lot between now and draft night.

[acieEarl]

I'm thinking this is a pretty weak draft. After Simmons and Ingram it seem wide open. Might not be much of any difference from picking 3th or falling to 6th.

[cltc5]

I keep sayin g it's Ingram or bust

[celticmania]

Best Case for us is to get the 2nd pick and take Brandon Ingram.. Later take DEJOUNTE MURRAY and Jonathan Jeanne.

[jambr380]

I always enjoy looking at draft prospects as the year progresses, but is there any way we keep the pick if it lands outside of the top 2? We will be looking for an elite wing scorer or a potentially (future) dominant big man and these are not the strengths of this draft earlier on. Also, I imagine we are going to be in 'win-now' mode with the way we are playing.

It's really too bad we didn't have this pick last year, but beggars can't be choosers. Regardless, draft time will be a lot of fun; thanks for posting the big-board

[acieEarl]

Yes Ainge may already have an eye on kid that will fall outside the top 2. He also will be listing for offers as well.

Every year with March Madness and then the combine/workouts a couple guys shoot up the draft board. The kid Lavine didn't even play that much for UCLA, but had NBA potential once they saw what he could do in the workouts.

[slamtheking]

I always enjoy looking at draft prospects as the year progresses, but is there any way we keep the pick if it lands outside of the top 2? We will be looking for an elite wing scorer or a potentially (future) dominant big man and these are not the strengths of this draft earlier on. Also, I imagine we are going to be in 'win-now' mode with the way we are playing.

It's really too bad we didn't have this pick last year, but beggars can't be choosers. Regardless, draft time will be a lot of fun; thanks for posting the big-board

Teams in win now mode are still accruing talent for continued development so they continue to be contenders.  Spurs are an excellent example of this concept.  taking a player in the top 5 this year isn't a negative impact on this team -- in fact, the construct of this team would allow that player to develop without the pressure to contribute right away.  if they can contribute, all the better.

[mef730]

I always enjoy looking at draft prospects as the year progresses, but is there any way we keep the pick if it lands outside of the top 2? We will be looking for an elite wing scorer or a potentially (future) dominant big man and these are not the strengths of this draft earlier on. Also, I imagine we are going to be in 'win-now' mode with the way we are playing.

It's really too bad we didn't have this pick last year, but beggars can't be choosers. Regardless, draft time will be a lot of fun; thanks for posting the big-board

Yes, I think there is a chance that we keep a non-1,2 (maybe 3) pick. Everyone else sees the same draft we do and consensus seems to be that it's 1,2 or bust. The "bid" for that pick, even at, say, #4 (assuming Bender goes #3) is going to be well below the "ask" from Ainge. DA doesn't want to sell a top-5 pick low, but nobody wants to pay up in a draft that may not be deep.

Mike

[chilidawg]

I always enjoy looking at draft prospects as the year progresses, but is there any way we keep the pick if it lands outside of the top 2? We will be looking for an elite wing scorer or a potentially (future) dominant big man and these are not the strengths of this draft earlier on. Also, I imagine we are going to be in 'win-now' mode with the way we are playing.

It's really too bad we didn't have this pick last year, but beggars can't be choosers. Regardless, draft time will be a lot of fun; thanks for posting the big-board

Teams in win now mode are still accruing talent for continued development so they continue to be contenders.  Spurs are an excellent example of this concept.  taking a player in the top 5 this year isn't a negative impact on this team -- in fact, the construct of this team would allow that player to develop without the pressure to contribute right away.  if they can contribute, all the better.

Good point.

Does anyone know the odds of getting the 1 or 2 pick if the Nets are 3rd?  What about if they're 4th?

[jambr380]

I always enjoy looking at draft prospects as the year progresses, but is there any way we keep the pick if it lands outside of the top 2? We will be looking for an elite wing scorer or a potentially (future) dominant big man and these are not the strengths of this draft earlier on. Also, I imagine we are going to be in 'win-now' mode with the way we are playing.

It's really too bad we didn't have this pick last year, but beggars can't be choosers. Regardless, draft time will be a lot of fun; thanks for posting the big-board

Teams in win now mode are still accruing talent for continued development so they continue to be contenders.  Spurs are an excellent example of this concept.  taking a player in the top 5 this year isn't a negative impact on this team -- in fact, the construct of this team would allow that player to develop without the pressure to contribute right away.  if they can contribute, all the better.

I do understand the concept and realize there is a 'chance', just seems like Danny is ready to make a big splash after a quiet offseason last summer. The Spurs have a very nice core, but even they would have dealt the #5 pick for Aldridge if they needed to. They aren't exactly swimming in top 5 picks.