Rudy Gay Available

[wdleehi]

I wouldn't give up any significant value to get him, but I disagree with the idea that he couldn't be a valuable piece in the right situation. 

I think he needs to operate as a small-ball 4 playing next to a big man who can cover up his weaknesses.  Use him as a more offensively-dangerous version of Thad Young.

The problem is his value as a player towards winning vs. his contract value is out of whack. 


His contract is based on his stats. 

[PhoSita]

I wouldn't give up any significant value to get him, but I disagree with the idea that he couldn't be a valuable piece in the right situation. 

I think he needs to operate as a small-ball 4 playing next to a big man who can cover up his weaknesses.  Use him as a more offensively-dangerous version of Thad Young.

The problem is his value as a player towards winning vs. his contract value is out of whack. 


His contract is based on his stats.

Sure, but there aren't too many years left on it, and cap space is far less valuable over the next couple of seasons because everybody is going to have too much of it. 

15-20 million a year for Rudy Gay is crazy in the current cap environment, but in a league with a $100 million cap, spending 20% of your cap on a guy who puts up 18-8 with acceptable efficiency makes sense if you (a) are in desperate need of guys who can pressure a defense on their own and (b) you have plenty of rookie scale contracts to fill out the roster, creating room for inefficiency elsewhere.

The Celts fit both categories.

Anyway, Gay doesn't even make 15-20 million a year ... he makes about the same per year as Amir Johnson.  I wouldn't sweat the contract one bit.

[wdleehi]

I wouldn't give up any significant value to get him, but I disagree with the idea that he couldn't be a valuable piece in the right situation. 

I think he needs to operate as a small-ball 4 playing next to a big man who can cover up his weaknesses.  Use him as a more offensively-dangerous version of Thad Young.

The problem is his value as a player towards winning vs. his contract value is out of whack. 


His contract is based on his stats.

Sure, but there aren't too many years left on it, and cap space is far less valuable over the next couple of seasons because everybody is going to have too much of it. 

20 million a year for Rudy Gay is crazy in the current cap environment, but in a league with a $100 million cap, spending 20% of your cap on a guy who puts up 18-8 with acceptable efficiency makes sense if you (a) are in desperate need of guys who can pressure a defense on their own and (b) you have plenty of rookie scale contracts to fill out the roster, creating room for inefficiency elsewhere.

The Celts fit both categories.

Two more seasons.

He doesn't help his team win.


I rather take the chance of signing big free agents with the extra cap then waste some of it one him. 

[Lucky17]

I'd be surprised if Gay didn't opt out of that final year on his contract. Cap will have increased substantially by then, and he'll probably want to get one more long-term contract.

[wdleehi]

I'd be surprised if Gay didn't opt out of that final year on his contract. Cap will have increased substantially by then, and he'll probably want to get one more long-term contract.

True, but it still effects the flexibility Ainge has created for next season.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I don't think Danny is dumb enough to trade for him.  Luckily, Rudy Gay is available literally every year because teams realize how much of a detriment he is and Danny has passed on him every single time so far, so here's hoping.

My bet is that he signs with a team that has one of the 5 most recent GMs.  I really hope he goes to the Nets.

Look at this:

2006-2007: Grizzlies - 22-60
07-08: Grizz - 22-60
08-09: Grizz - 24-58
09-10: Grizz - 40-42
10-11: Grizz - 46-36

Then an average of Toronto and Grizz in 2011-2012: (41-25 averaged with 23-43): 52.5 - 34

2012-2013: Toronto - 23-43
2014-2015: Kings - 29-53
2015-2016: Kings - 20-27

278-413 = he has a career 33% win percentage and that's with a generous guess on the 2011-2012 season and not counting the Kings' record in 2012-2013 which would drop it even lower.

He was on one and a half winning seasons ever, and halfway through one of them, they dumped him and they immediately did even better.  He is literally the worst player to have on your team in the league.  His defense is awful and he is averaging 1.7 assists per game right now.  Just please no.  No.  No. Please go to the Nets.

[PhoSita]

Two more seasons.

He doesn't help his team win.
 

I don't believe this phrase applies to that many players in the league.  Nick Young, OK, that guy doesn't help teams win.

Gay, on the other hand, belongs in my opinion to the category of players who needs to be in the right situation to be valuable. 


I'm not particularly interested in analysis that looks at the overall record of the teams he's been on and stops there.  I didn't find it persuasive with Kevin Love, either. 

It's not that looking at how successful a team is and drawing conclusions about the player or players that the team regards as its "core" is totally wrongheaded.  I just think that the conclusions that are drawn usually go to far, e.g. "this player does not help teams win."  As opposed to examining why the team isn't enjoying the kind of success you might expect with that player in a major role.

[wdleehi]

Two more seasons.

He doesn't help his team win.
 

I don't believe this phrase applies to that many players in the league.  Nick Young, OK, that guy doesn't help teams win.

Gay, on the other hand, belongs in my opinion to the category of players who needs to be in the right situation to be valuable.

He is paid like a guy that should help the team win.   Look at his history.   He helped his teams the most right after they trade him away.

[SHAQATTACK]

I don't think Danny is dumb enough to trade for him.  Luckily, Rudy Gay is available literally every year because teams realize how much of a detriment he is and Danny has passed on him every single time so far, so here's hoping.

My bet is that he signs with a team that has one of the 5 most recent GMs.  I really hope he goes to the Nets.

Look at this:

2006-2007: Grizzlies - 22-60
07-08: Grizz - 22-60
08-09: Grizz - 24-58
09-10: Grizz - 40-42
10-11: Grizz - 46-36

Then an average of Toronto and Grizz in 2011-2012: (41-25 averaged with 23-43): 52.5 - 34

2012-2013: Toronto - 23-43
2014-2015: Kings - 29-53
2015-2016: Kings - 20-27

278-413 = he has a career 33% win percentage and that's with a generous guess on the 2011-2012 season and not counting the Kings' record in 2012-2013 which would drop it even lower.

He was on one and a half winning seasons ever, and halfway through one of them, they dumped him and they immediately did even better.  He is literally the worst player to have on your team in the league.  His defense is awful and he is averaging 1.7 assists per game right now.  Just please no.  No.  No. Please go to the Nets.

Glade for your research .....we knew he was not a great team player once he left Toronto . 

Obviously not the type of player CBS needs. .....

He fits into the , kind of player I want to send to Lakers .  Help them lose .

[PhoSita]

He helped his teams the most right after they trade him away.

The teams he's been on have improved after trading him away, yes, but why?  It's just really lazy, overly simplistic cause and effect logic to talk this way about the effect that individual players have on the success of entire teams.

[Lucky17]

He helped his teams the most right after they trade him away.

The teams he's been on have improved after trading him away, yes, but why?  It's just really lazy, overly simplistic cause and effect logic to talk this way about the effect that individual players have on the success of entire teams.

Meanwhile, Gay has been more efficient since he was traded from Toronto to Sacramento.

Maybe that says something about Toronto, too?

[wdleehi]

He helped his teams the most right after they trade him away.

The teams he's been on have improved after trading him away, yes, but why?  It's just really lazy, overly simplistic cause and effect logic to talk this way about the effect that individual players have on the success of entire teams.

Meanwhile, Gay has been more efficient since he was traded from Toronto to Sacramento.

Maybe that says something about Toronto, too?

Yes, they got better as a team once he left. 


It is not about his numbers.  It is that teams play better without him.