Okay, there's a reason that I'm not an NBA scout, but I just don't get Dragan Bender. He looks great on the perimeter but, in the paint, he looks slow. Having said that, I have no idea who I'd choose after the first two.
Here's the mock draft:
In a new wrinkle for Mock Draft 3.0, we'll be using the ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) projected W-L records to determine the draft order. This should be a more accurate gauge of how the draft will look at the end of the season.
Remember, mock drafts don't determine where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft would likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our latest Big Board here.
2016 NBA draft
Get ready for Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and the 2016 draft with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
Big Board 4.0 | Mock Draft 2.0
Top 10 Cs | Top 10 PFs
Top 10 SFs | Top 10 SGs
Top 10 PGs | Top 100 rankings
Nothing is set in stone at this point. Expect this mock draft to fluctuate greatly over the course of the next five months.
Nevertheless, it's our best stab at a full first-round mock draft (assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares), after taking into account team needs, based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
The 76ers are still on track to have better than a 25 percent chance at Simmons, combining the odds for Philadelphia and Sacramento (Philly can swap picks with the Kings).
Of course, the Sixers' improved play with Ish Smith at point guard might make their fans a little nervous, as Philly looks competitive in almost every game. If the Sixers don't end up with the worst record, the trade for Smith could come back to haunt them.
If the Sixers do win the lottery, Simmons seems like a great pick. Duke forward Brandon Ingram would be tempting because he fits a positional need a little more and brings shooting to the table -- that's Simmons' biggest weakness -- but with several months to go before the draft, Simmons remains firmly in the lead for the No. 1 pick.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 25 percent, 14-68
Watch: Ben Simmons highlights Video
2. Los Angeles Lakers*
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
The Lakers are playing better basketball, but thankfully for their fans, it's not good enough to mess with their lottery odds. That's important, because L.A. must send this pick to the 76ers if it falls to fourth or lower in the lottery. Finishing with the second-worst record gives the Lakers a 56 percent chance of keeping the pick.
Simmons would, of course, be a godsend for the Lakers, but Ingram is also a prize and would fit a major need. The long, athletic wing has been terrific on both ends of the floor the last 10 games for Duke. He'd be a major upgrade at the 3. A combo of D'Angelo Russell and Ingram should give the Lakers a serious foundation for the future.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 19.9 percent, 19-63
Watch: Brandon Ingram highlights Video
3. Boston Celtics*
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
This Nets' pick is unprotected, meaning the worse Brooklyn plays, the more excited Celtics fans should get. The Nets have won just one of their past 10 games and seem like legitimate contenders to "pass" the Lakers for the second-best lottery odds in the draft.
Bender's starting to get minutes for Maccabi Tel Aviv, but it's mostly his upside that gets general managers excited. He is big and skilled, can guard multiple positions and has shown the ability to stretch the floor lately. I'm not sure he's in the same talent category as Kristaps Porzingis, but for many scouts, he's the other prize in this draft behind Simmons and Ingram.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Nets): 15.6 percent, 23-59
4. Minnesota Timberwolves*
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
The Timberwolves are loaded with young talent, but they're struggling to compete with the other elite teams in the West and look destined to land yet another top-five pick. They already have a number of young players they love -- Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Zach LaVine, Ricky Rubio and Shabazz Muhammad -- but could still use some help at the 4.
Ellenson is a perfect fit as a big who can rebound and spread the floor. Think of him as a poor man's Kevin Love, to invoke the name of a recent Timberwolves star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 11.9 percent, 26-56
Watch: Henry Ellenson highlights Video
5. Phoenix Suns
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
The Suns are fading fast now that Eric Bledsoe is out for the season with a torn meniscus. They've won just once in their past 10 games, and if things don't get better, they could challenge both the Lakers and Nets for the second-worst record in the NBA. The Suns already have two point guards -- Bledsoe and Brandon Knight -- but then again, they don't really have one. Both are shooting guards that lack the size to play the 2.
The good news is Dunn brings the floor vision of a lead guy with enough size to guard both backcourt positions. He's not a great shooter and he's a little old, but he's the most dynamic guard in the draft. The Suns would have to figure out how to find minutes for all three guards.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 8.8 percent, 28-54
6. Denver Nuggets*
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
Denver is in the midst of a rebuild. There are interesting young players at every position for the Nuggets, which gives them some flexibility here. Brown is super intriguing given his NBA body and athleticism. He's just a jump shot away from being a star.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 6.3 percent, 32-50
7. New Orleans Pelicans
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The Pelicans continue to struggle with putting a real team around Anthony Davis. With Eric Gordon hitting free agency this coming summer, the Pelicans could use a guard who can create, shoot and finish at the rim.
Murray might not be an elite athlete, but his high basketball IQ and scoring ability should lift some of the load off Davis.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 4.3 percent, 34-48
Watch: Jamal Murray highlights Video
8. Milwaukee Bucks
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Bucks might be the biggest disappointment in the East after their terrific run last year, but landing this high in the lottery might pay off.
Greg Monroe has been good for them in the middle. Still, the Bucks could continue to use players with size, rebounding and shot-blocking ability like Poeltl.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 2.8 percent, 36-46
9. Portland Trail Blazers*
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward
The Blazers have both Meyers Leonard and Noah Vonleh as potential stretch-4s, but that wouldn't stop them from grabbing Labissiere here.
He was widely regarded as the second-best prospect in the draft after Simmons before the college season started. He's struggled mightily at Kentucky, but he still has the size, athleticism and perimeter skills teams covet.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.7 percent, 36-46
10. Sacramento Kings*
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
Rajon Rondo has worked out well for the Kings, but he's an unrestricted free agent and will likely try to use that success to land on a better team.
Baldwin has great size and strength for his position and has proved to be very capable of shooting the rock. The Kings need a long-term answer at the point and Baldwin would be a good one.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 1.1 percent, 36-46
11. Toronto Raptors*
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center
The Raptors have Jonas Valanciunas anchoring the middle and Bismack Biyombo has been a terrific rebounder off the bench, but they are truly in need of a dominant 4. Most scouts felt Rabb would be at least a two-year player at Cal. He's off to a very strong start, though, and ticks off a number of boxes that NBA scouts are looking for in modern bigs.
While he's not a 3-point threat yet, he can hit the midrange jumper and is a great rebounder.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record (via Knicks): 0.8 percent, 38-44
12. Orlando Magic
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Davis is raw. Very raw. But he brings two things to the table that Orlando really needs: shot-blocking and front-court athleticism.
The Magic would have to be patient with him. If Davis stays another year at Michigan State, he could be a top-10 talent next year.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.7 percent, 39-43
13. Washington Wizards
Diamond Stone
Maryland
Freshman
Center
The Wizards could use help up front. Nene is in the last year of his contract and there just isn't a lot of depth right now behind Marcin Gortat at the 5.
Stone's ability to score with his back to the basket is his biggest draw. He's big, long and dominant in the post. His lack of elite athleticism hurts him a bit, but he's been rising on draft boards lately.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.6 percent, 39-43
14. Charlotte Hornets
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Forward
The Hornets continue to be a team that could use additional 3-point shooting. Korkmaz is shooting 41 percent from deep in the Euroleague this year and 50 percent from 3 in Turkish play.
He's a prototypical 2-guard who could allow Nicolas Batum to spend more time at the 3 next season.
Odds of winning lottery, projected record: 0.5 percent, 40-42
15. Utah Jazz
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
The Jazz don't have any real glaring needs. Hield would give them an elite scorer off the bench who excels at both shooting the ball (he's hitting 50 percent from 3 this season) and getting to the basket.
He's a bit undersized for his position, but he's the type of player Utah loves: smart, high-character and tough.
Projected record: 39-43
16. Denver Nuggets*
Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 18
Center/forward
Jeanne is an upside pick who might take a couple of years to come over to the NBA. But when he does, he has the chance to be awesome.
Blessed with elite size for his position, he can not only protect the rim with a crazy 7-foot-6 wingspan, but he has the ability to step out and shoot the jumper as well.
Projected record (via Rockets): 41-41
17. Boston Celtics*
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward/center
Danny Ainge loves toughness, and Diallo certainly has that. He was widely regarded as a top-10 prospect before the season began, but his lack of playing time (and struggles when he is on the court) have given teams some pause about his NBA readiness.
But there's so much talent there that after the lottery, someone is going to pounce.
Projected record (via Mavericks): 43-39
18. Memphis Grizzlies*
Caris LeVert
Michigan
Senior
Guard/forward
LeVert's versatility is his main calling card. He can play two positions on the floor and is an elite passer and 3-point shooter.
With Courtney Lee and Jeff Green both in the last year of their deals, he's a really good fit.
Projected record:43-39
19. Philadelphia 76ers*
Timothe Luwawu
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward
Luwawu is making a leap in the Adriatic League this year. Not only is he a terrific athlete and defender, but he's started hitting his 3s with regularity.
He's averaging 14.9 PPG and shooting 37 percent from deep for Mega Leks this season.
Projected record (via Heat): 43-39
20. Detroit Pistons
Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Freshman
Center
The Pistons could use some size behind Andre Drummond in the middle. Bryant is raw, but he plays hard, rebounds and has a soft shooting touch.
He's a project, but at this point in the draft, so are most of the prospects left on the board.
Projected record: 44-38
21. Chicago Bulls
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
There are major question marks surrounding Derrick Rose right now, and even bigger ones around his replacements. Point guard has turned into a need for the Bulls.
Jackson is a little undersized, but he is tough, shoots the 3 and is a great floor leader.
Projected record: 25 percent, 46-36
22. Boston Celtics
Zhou Qi
China
Age: 19
Center
If the Celtics keep all three of their first-rounders, taking a young player to stash overseas makes sense here.
Zhou is super talented, skilled and long -- but his rail-thin body needs to add a lot of muscle. Boston can afford to wait.
Projected record: 46-36
23. Indiana Pacers
Gary Payton II
Oregon State
Senior
Guard
The Pacers should love the defensive prowess Payton brings to the table. He follows in his father's footsteps as a steals-hound and has shown progress as an offensive player in his two years at Oregon State.
Projected record: 47-35
24. Atlanta Hawks
Taurean Prince
Baylor
Senior
Forward
Prince is a versatile forward who can stretch the floor and defend multiple positions on the defensive end. Many scouts are hoping he's the second coming of DeMarre Carroll -- a player the Hawks miss badly after losing him to the Raptors in free agency.
Projected record: 47-35
25. Toronto Raptors
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
The Raptors could use a power forward and Masai Ujiri is a known gambler.
There's enormous talent in Chriss. He's athletic and long, and when he gets it going, he's a threat inside and outside. But he's also raw and inconsistent. Teams will have to be patient with him.
Projected record: 51-31
26. Los Angeles Clippers
Grayson Allen
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
Allen might be a bit undersized, but he has put on a scoring clinic at Duke this season. He is an athletic freak, shoots well and can even play on the ball.
We know how Doc Rivers feels about former Dukies. This should be a good fit.
Projected record: 51-31
27. Philadelphia 76ers*
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
No offense to Ish Smith, who is lighting things up for the Sixers this season, but the team is still very much looking for a long-term solution at point guard.
Murray is very interesting. Blessed with great size and athleticism for his position, he's having a big freshman year at Washington. He needs to improve his 3-point shooting and cut down on turnovers, but there is a lot of talent there.
Projected record (via Thunder): 57-25
28. Phoenix Suns*
Carlton Bragg
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Bragg has played sparingly for the Jayhawks this year, but scouts are watching every time he steps on the court. His ability to score inside and out, combined with his rebounding ability, makes him an intriguing prospect.
He'll probably stay in school at least one more year for Kansas, but if he declares for the draft, Phoenix could bite.
Projected record (via Cavaliers): 57-25
29. San Antonio Spurs
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Sabonis is the perfect sort of Spurs player -- highly intelligent, tough, super-productive -- especially as a rebounder. But he lacks the flash and upside of players going ahead of him. He'd thrive under Gregg Popovich.
Projected record: 67-15
30. Golden State Warriors
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Much like Draymond Green, Valentine had been written off by scouts as a position-less player lacking the elite athletic ability to compete in the NBA. Somehow, the Warriors turn those types of players into superstars. I could see that happening again with Valentine.
Projected record: 69-13
