Where should we be in the playoffs?

[jpotter33]

I know, I know. It might be a tad early to be worrying about position rather than just making the playoffs (though BPI indicates a 93.3% chance of us making the playoffs), but I don't want to make the same mistake as last year. Last year, due to our success against the Nets with our tiebreaker, we were essentially forced into the 7th seed against Cleveland. This year, I'm hoping we can possibly take a more proactive stance to where we land in the playoff seedings. Here are the current seedings:

1. Cavs
2. Raptors
3. Bulls
4. Hawks
5. Heat
6. Pistons
7. Pacers
8. Celtics
--------------
9. Magic
10. Wizards

It's almost a certainty that the Cavs will stay in the #1 spot, and I think the top-4 will essentially stay the same, though 2-4 might switch around some. However, I think 5-8 is interchangeable at this point. We still have one game apiece against the Pistons (H) and Pacers (A), which we really need to win to avoid them having the tiebreaker, and two games (both H) against the Heat, one of which is the very last game on the schedule for us.

If we hope to steal a series or two, it is IMPERATIVE that we get out of the 8th seed spot. Ideally, we want to land in the 6th or 7th spot, because that would mean that we wouldn't face Cleveland until the Conference Finals at the earliest. We could also land 5th, which would put us up against Cleveland in the Conference Semifinals at the earliest.

I don't know about you, but outside of Cleveland I think we have a decent chance to upset in every other series in the East. I think it's tiered like this:
Tier 1: Cleveland
Tier 2: Toronto
Tier 3: Everybody else

Winning a playoff series or two would do WONDERS for our free agent pitch, which is why it is essential this year to try and avoid Cleveland in the first round.

Thus, if the top-4 would stay as it is (I expect Cleveland and Toronto to be 1 and 2), ideally we should try to get to the 6th seed. If not the sixth seed, then the 5th seed, and finally the 7th seed. I like our matchups much more against Chicago and Atlanta than Toronto, and we've shown to have some success against both of those teams in recent seasons. If we're fully healthy and playing well, there's no reason that we can't possibly upset any team in the East not named Cleveland, though I do think Toronto (with Carroll mind you) would be a tough one.

Where do you think we should land, and what's your best matchup for the C's?

[CroCorvus]

Absolutely we making the playoffs again this year, somewhere between 5-7 spot. Just like last season, we gonna play much better b ball after the deadline.

[hpantazo]

Absolutely we making the playoffs again this year, somewhere between 5-7 spot. Just like last season, we gonna play much better b ball after the deadline.

I've seen a lot of people say this, but unless we make a trade or two, there is no reason to think that we will play better after the deadline. This team is what it is, don't expect some magical improvement after mid-february unless we make some roster moves, and we are fortunate enough that those moves work out.

[Evantime34]

Absolutely we making the playoffs again this year, somewhere between 5-7 spot. Just like last season, we gonna play much better b ball after the deadline.

I've seen a lot of people say this, but unless we make a trade or two, there is no reason to think that we will play better after the deadline. This team is what it is, don't expect some magical improvement after mid-february unless we make some roster moves, and we are fortunate enough that those moves work out.

1. I expect some type of trade to happen before the deadline. Even if it's a minor one, the roster will come further into focus and I expect improvement based on roster stability.
2. My reasoning for thinking that this team will improve is Brad Stevens, you could debate whether he's magical or not.

I don't care about seed as long as we don't play the Cavs in the first round. Not really sure what team that isn't the cavs would give us the most trouble in the playoffs.

[max215]

Obviously, we must avoid the 8 seed. The Raptors are very good, but definitely beatable. The Bulls are very up and down, but overall, their talent is superior to ours. The Hawks are fine, but they're very well-coached and execute. A Celtics-Hawks series would be a toss up. The Heat also have a fair amount of talent, but they haven't impressed me at all this year. This series would depend on how dominant Bosh and Wade could be. I don't like the matchup problem that Drummond presents, but I'd pick us to win this series. The Pacers are interesting because we don't know which Paul George would show up. I don't think we stand a chance if early-season PG shows up, but he's come back down to earth since then, and if he plays the way he's playing now, we'll win. I think there's no way the Magic make the playoffs as their schedule is about to get very hard, and we've matched up VERY well against the Wizards thus far this year.

[apc]

I wouldn't mind playing the Heat. good match-ups, and some history.
I can see the series goes to 7 games.

[CroCorvus]

Absolutely we making the playoffs again this year, somewhere between 5-7 spot. Just like last season, we gonna play much better b ball after the deadline.

I've seen a lot of people say this, but unless we make a trade or two, there is no reason to think that we will play better after the deadline. This team is what it is, don't expect some magical improvement after mid-february unless we make some roster moves, and we are fortunate enough that those moves work out.

I think that probability of DA making at least one trade (weather is a splash or a minor, lateral trade) is very high. And that trade will probably make us a better team.
Second reason is, and I would say the crucial, that deadline will pass and the players will be much steadier in their play. There will no longer be an axe above that locker room treating every single one that he will be traded. Just that cognition alone will improve out team in a big way.

[chilidawg]

We're only two games out 3rd, and two out of 10th.  With good health I like our chances of ending up in the 4-6 range. 

As the OP points out, clearly the Cavs are the team you want to avoid.  Getting home court in the first round would be big, although we haven't played that well at home, at least it would mean we're playing well going into the playoffs.

[jpotter33]

Obviously, we must avoid the 8 seed. The Raptors are very good, but definitely beatable. The Bulls are very up and down, but overall, their talent is superior to ours. The Hawks are fine, but they're very well-coached and execute. A Celtics-Hawks series would be a toss up. The Heat also have a fair amount of talent, but they haven't impressed me at all this year. This series would depend on how dominant Bosh and Wade could be. I don't like the matchup problem that Drummond presents, but I'd pick us to win this series. The Pacers are interesting because we don't know which Paul George would show up. I don't think we stand a chance if early-season PG shows up, but he's come back down to earth since then, and if he plays the way he's playing now, we'll win. I think there's no way the Magic make the playoffs as their schedule is about to get very hard, and we've matched up VERY well against the Wizards thus far this year.

Yeah, it's really an interesting dynamic this year. I think most of the 2-8 matchups will be 50/50 series where either team could legitimately win. I think our worst matchups are Cleveland, Toronto, and Detroit (though Detroit is still very beatable, and every matchup was decided by six points or less, i.e. that'd be a FUN series). I think our best matchups are Chicago, Atlanta, and Miami, especially with Smart healthy. Indiana is an interesting matchup, because they're hard to beat when they're making shots but very beatable when not, similar to us.

I'd really love to get a matchup with the Heat due to the history of the two teams and the matchup issues we present, though that would most likely mean a second round exit to Cleveland.

[loco_91]

We could end up #2 or #10 - it's impossible to know at this point. Basically, higher is better. Even though there's a lot of parity right now, another 40 games from now there might be a clear #2 and a clear #3 that we'll want to avoid by getting the #4-#5 seed. Just one playoff series win would be great for this young squad - no need to optimize our odds of two wins (by going for the 6-7 instead of the 4-5) at the cost of hurting our chances at the conference semifinals.

[PhoSita]

Making the playoffs to get swept by Cleveland again would be, well, not a disaster, but pretty disappointing.

If the Celts make the playoffs, I hope they end up against the Bulls, Heat, or Raptors.

The Hawks seem vulnerable, but I think in a playoff series their experience and overall offensive talent would be too much.  The other teams I mentioned are better than the Celts, but they're vulnerable enough that I think the Celts could perhaps make it a 6 or 7 game series.  Then again, the Raptors have that formula -- big talented point guard and big talented center -- that gives the Celts fits.

I'm not worried about making the playoffs, though. 

[MJohnnyboy]

Cleveland will definitely be number 1 and I see Toronto taking that 2 spot especially if they try to get an upgrade at the power forward spot (Why they haven't pulled the trigger on the quite obvious Markieff Morris deal I just don't know). They haven't been as enigmatic as the Heat or the Bulls. I see the Hawks getting the 3rd seed. After that, I can see the Celtics going as high as number 4, but that depends on what this team does at the trade deadline. This team is positioned to make a move with Lee's contract and a surplus of picks, but it depends on who the Celtics get. I've been pulling for Greg Monroe because he basically can do what the Celtics wanted Lee to do this year. Be a post-up scoring machine who can rebound and pass the ball. His defense isn't that good but it isn't that bad either. Milwaukee does not suffer defensively when he's on the court. I think Monroe would thrive playing next to a big that can play good defense (Jabari Parker can't do that) and won't get in the way offensively (Andre Drummond couldn't do that). Amir and KO do just that.


If all goes well for the Celtics, they can go as high as number 4. If all goes wrong, they could miss the playoffs. This team has mainly struggled with inconsistency which infuriates me more than anything because when they go on their winning stretches, they do look like one of the east's best teams, but when they go on their losing stretches, they look like a lottery team. I really wish they would go with one route or the other and stick with it.


I think we won't really know until the deadline passes.

[celticsclay]

Making the playoffs to get swept by Cleveland again would be, well, not a disaster, but pretty disappointing.

If the Celts make the playoffs, I hope they end up against the Bulls, Heat, or Raptors.

The Hawks seem vulnerable, but I think in a playoff series their experience and overall offensive talent would be too much.  The other teams I mentioned are better than the Celts, but they're vulnerable enough that I think the Celts could perhaps make it a 6 or 7 game series.  Then again, the Raptors have that formula -- big talented point guard and big talented center -- that gives the Celts fits.

I'm not worried about making the playoffs, though.

Us playing Cleveland is mathematically the least likely thing to happen of us either going in in the lottery, or us going in any other seed besides the top seed. I don't think we can really worry about Cleveland too much until there is like a week left in the season. it also had been nice on a side note that a few teams seem to be on verge of fading out of playoff picture. Charlotte continues to struggle (though they may pick up their second win in about 3 weeks today). Orlando has also been crashing back to earth and now may have oladipo hurt (although not sure of extent of his injury). One thing about our depth is that aside from IT I don't think any one injury would cripple us, and we already have had some bad luck with bradley and smart missing time.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I don't mind playing Cleveland in the first round. It's obvious that we're going to have to go through them one way or another, so what the heck. If we get swept, we get swept. It'll suck if that's the end outcome, but I just like seeing this team compete even if against all odds.

[jpotter33]

I don't mind playing Cleveland in the first round. It's obvious that we're going to have to go through them one way or another, so what the heck. If we get swept, we get swept. It'll suck if that's the end outcome, but I just like seeing this team compete even if against all odds.

Well, the thing is a loss to the Cavs in the second round or Conference Finals is infinitely better, in my opinion, than a loss to the Cavs in the first round. I think it shows progress to potential free agent targets, which is really important I think.