ESPN: The Nets are a bigger problem for the NBA than the Sixers

[mef730]

Just a glorious, glorious article. It's Insider, but here are some of the highlights:

http://espn.go.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/14555085/the-brooklyn-nets-bigger-problem-philadelphia-76ers-nba

Kevin Pelton
ESPN Staff Writer
Email
print
comment
The NBA spent much of the early part of the 2015-16 season worrying about the Philadelphia 76ers, who are in their third year as one of the league's worst teams with no apparent end in sight. Right in the same division as the Sixers, however, the Brooklyn Nets loom as a much greater long-term problem for the league.

As bad as things are now for the 10-28 Nets, who fired head coach Lionel Hollins and reassigned general manager Billy King in a housecleaning on Sunday, they stand the potential to get much worse because Brooklyn doesn't have the kind of draft picks and young talent the 76ers have spent the last three years accumulating. And that could turn one of the NBA's two New York franchises into an albatross for years to come.

Love the comments about free agency:

After buying out the final two years of Williams' contract, enabling them to avoid the luxury tax this season, the Nets have gone from fringe playoff team to also-ran.

At 10-28, Brooklyn has the league's third-worst record. And the Nets have lost all four games since starting point guard Jarrett Jack tore his ACL. The Celtics, not Brooklyn, will benefit from the ensuing lottery pick, nearly certain to be a top-five pick.

Because of the trade, the Nets have just one draft pick over the next three seasons -- and Boston has the right to swap that pick, too, leaving Brooklyn with the lesser of the teams' selections. So it will be difficult if not impossible for the Nets to add quality young talent to an aging roster.

Amazingly, Brooklyn has the league's eighth-oldest roster in terms of effective age weighted by playing time. While King did a nice job of buying low with young reserves like Shane Larkin (Jack's replacement at point guard), Willie Reed and Thomas Robinson, the only player younger than 27 on the roster who looks like a future starter is rookie swingman Rondae Hollis-Jefferson.

The Nets' insurance policy was their cap space, which they anticipated would enable them to reset even if their veteran-laden roster collapsed. What Brooklyn didn't foresee was the way the new TV contract would cause the salary cap to rise this summer, meaning nearly every team in the league will have money to spend. Given the chance to make the same money on a contending team, what top-tier free agent will sign with the Nets?

Before the season, Chad Ford and I ranked Brooklyn -- not Philadelphia -- last in Insider's Future Power Rankings projecting performance over the next three seasons. Nothing has happened this season to change that assessment.

How bad is their situation?

The closest parallel for the Nets in recent NBA history is probably the Isiah Thomas-era New York Knicks, particularly after they traded a first-round pick and swapped rights to the Chicago Bulls as part of a deal for Eddy Curry. In 2005-06, the Knicks went 23-59 and sent Chicago the pick that became LaMarcus Aldridge (the Bulls traded his rights to Portland on draft night). From that point, it took New York five seasons to get back to the playoffs.

At least those Knicks were relatively young, with an effective age of 26.7 -- nearly two years younger than Brooklyn. And their pick obligations ended a year earlier, allowing them to draft Danilo Gallinari, who later became the centerpiece of New York's trade for Carmelo Anthony.

To find the last team more hopeless than Brooklyn, then, it might be necessary to go back to the 1980s Cleveland Cavaliers. Because of trades made by owner Ted Stepien and his predecessors, the Cavaliers didn't get the benefit of any of the seven lottery picks they should have made over the eight seasons between 1979 and 1986, including trading the No. 1 overall pick (used by the L.A. Lakers on James Worthy) in 1982.

The situation got so bad that the NBA was forced to compensate new owners George and Gordon Gund with additional first-round picks in the next four drafts when they bought the team from Stepien in 1983. It still took five years before Cleveland could get over .500 and dig out of the lottery for good.

To avoid a repeat, the league adopted what's known as "the Stepien Rule," preventing teams from trading draft picks in consecutive future seasons. That's why the Nets have any future first-round picks at all coming, but they still found a way to keep from getting their own lottery picks by giving up swap rights to the Hawks and Celtics.

As long as Philadelphia sits below Brooklyn in the Atlantic Division standings, few observers will realize the magnitude of the problem for the Nets. But with the 76ers poised to convert the draft picks and young prospects Hinkie accumulated into players who can help them win now, that surely won't last. And soon it will be obvious that Brooklyn presents a bigger long-term issue for the league.

[celticsclay]

This is an amazing article. I also like that the author calls it a near certain top 5 pick. I know it is hard for us as celtics fans to get overly excited or optimistic about it, but the longer the season goes on the harder it becomes to see the Nets shooting up the standings. We are approaching the halfway point of the season and they seem to be only getting worse, not improving.

[Quetzalcoatl]

lol

[Donoghus]

Hopefully, BKN's worst case scenario comes to fruition allowing the Celtics to reap the fruits.

[Lucky17]

Pelton ignores the fact that Brooklyn is one of the biggest media markets in the world. Max money, plus living in NYC, will make the Nets players in free agency.

[Evantime34]

Pelton ignores the fact that Brooklyn is one of the biggest media markets in the world. Max money, plus living in NYC, will make the Nets players in free agency.

Don't the Knicks have room for a max contract this year? Don't see the Nets beating out the Knicks for anyone.

[celticsclay]

Pelton ignores the fact that Brooklyn is one of the biggest media markets in the world. Max money, plus living in NYC, will make the Nets players in free agency.

This is possible, but I just don't think NBA players view it quite that way. Playing in Madison square garden, a stadium that may be the most famous basketball stadium in the world and having Marv Albert announce your games and Phil Jackson recruiting you, those all sound like good things. However, going to a team with no history, that half the people still think of as the New Jersey nets seems like a completely different ball game. The only thing I think I can recall about a player talking about living in brooklyn is one rookie either this year or last year that lived outside brooklyn because he didn't want to pay the ridiculous housing costs (it may have been RHJ).

[Quetzalcoatl]

Hopefully, BKN's worst case scenario comes to fruition allowing the Celtics to reap the fruits.

Worst case scenario is Ben Simmons, Josh Jackson and DeAndre Ayton?  I like these drafts coming up, there's Jayson Tatum, Ingram, Thon Maker, De'Aaron Fox, Harry Giles, Michael Porter, Wendell Carter, Dennis Smith Jr., Isaiah Hartenstein, Markelle Fultz.... these are some really legit prospects.

[PhoSita]

This is an amazing article. I also like that the author calls it a near certain top 5 pick. I know it is hard for us as celtics fans to get overly excited or optimistic about it, but the longer the season goes on the harder it becomes to see the Nets shooting up the standings. We are approaching the halfway point of the season and they seem to be only getting worse, not improving.

Yep.  I've been protecting myself from the disappointment of seeing that pick fall into the 8-12 range all season long, but as time goes on and they remain with the 3rd worst record, things look better and better.

That Jarrett Jack -- one of the most durable players in the NBA in terms of games played the last few years -- is one of the major injuries the Nets suffered, leaving them without an adequate starter at a crucial position, looks like a major stroke of good luck for the Celts.  Much needed good luck.

[PhoSita]

Pelton ignores the fact that Brooklyn is one of the biggest media markets in the world. Max money, plus living in NYC, will make the Nets players in free agency.

Yeah.

If the Celts reload with young players over the next 6 months and spend next year developing them, while Brooklyn overpays a bunch of vets to restock their roster, the Celts might not even use the pick swap next year.

I know that sounds crazy, but unless Ainge makes some major consolidating trades, the Celts will have a lot of young guys that need playing time.  I could see both the Celts and the Nets hanging out in the 30-40 wins range next year.

That wouldn't be a bad thing, in my mind, if the Celts are losing games while playing the kind of young talent that we can get excited about.

[LarBrd33]

Comparing Brooklyn to philly is not even remotely close. 

Philly has one of the best collections of assets in the entire league.  From top to bottom, they have more value than our entire team.  It would be exceptionally easy for a competent GM to turn Philly's assets into a decent team.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, has a single all-star talent with a history of injuries, a couple decent young guys, cap space and an intriguing location.  I still think they can take on bad contracts and add some vets and be mildly competitive enough to spoil our pick... I still think they could throw max money at players to join Lopez, but their path to relevance seems much steeper than Philly.

[slamtheking]

Pelton ignores the fact that Brooklyn is one of the biggest media markets in the world. Max money, plus living in NYC, will make the Nets players in free agency.

This is possible, but I just don't think NBA players view it quite that way. Playing in Madison square garden, a stadium that may be the most famous basketball stadium in the world and having Marv Albert announce your games and Phil Jackson recruiting you, those all sound like good things. However, going to a team with no history, that half the people still think of as the New Jersey nets seems like a completely different ball game. The only thing I think I can recall about a player talking about living in brooklyn is one rookie either this year or last year that lived outside brooklyn because he didn't want to pay the ridiculous housing costs (it may have been RHJ).

not to mention that recent free agency pointing towards players going to winning teams or teams on the upswing rather than chasing bright lights or the much-ballyhooed nightlife.
Aldridge going to very small market SA and Monroe going to Milwaukee are a couple of prime examples.

[celticsclay]

This is an amazing article. I also like that the author calls it a near certain top 5 pick. I know it is hard for us as celtics fans to get overly excited or optimistic about it, but the longer the season goes on the harder it becomes to see the Nets shooting up the standings. We are approaching the halfway point of the season and they seem to be only getting worse, not improving.

Yep.  I've been protecting myself from the disappointment of seeing that pick fall into the 8-12 range all season long, but as time goes on and they remain with the 3rd worst record, things look better and better.

That Jarrett Jack -- one of the most durable players in the NBA in terms of games played the last few years -- is one of the major injuries the Nets suffered, leaving them without an adequate starter at a crucial position, looks like a major stroke of good luck for the Celts.  Much needed good luck.

Can't help but laugh when it was pointed out that Jack playing as many minutes as he was at 32 years of age increased his risk of injury. I think Joe Johnson will get injured next. Would hardly call a 32 year old average point guard getting injured halfway through the season some giant stroke of luck. 

[celticsclay]

Comparing Brooklyn to philly is not even remotely close. 

Philly has one of the best collections of assets in the entire league.  From top to bottom, they have more value than our entire team.  It would be exceptionally easy for a competent GM to turn Philly's assets into a decent team.

Brooklyn, on the other hand, has a single all-star talent with a history of injuries, a couple decent young guys, cap space and an intriguing location.  I still think they can take on bad contracts and add some vets and be mildly competitive enough to spoil our pick... I still think they could throw max money at players to join Lopez, but their path to relevance seems much steeper than Philly.

We get what you think of the 76ers

[Quetzalcoatl]

This is an amazing article. I also like that the author calls it a near certain top 5 pick. I know it is hard for us as celtics fans to get overly excited or optimistic about it, but the longer the season goes on the harder it becomes to see the Nets shooting up the standings. We are approaching the halfway point of the season and they seem to be only getting worse, not improving.

Yep.  I've been protecting myself from the disappointment of seeing that pick fall into the 8-12 range all season long, but as time goes on and they remain with the 3rd worst record, things look better and better.

That Jarrett Jack -- one of the most durable players in the NBA in terms of games played the last few years -- is one of the major injuries the Nets suffered, leaving them without an adequate starter at a crucial position, looks like a major stroke of good luck for the Celts.  Much needed good luck.

Can't help but laugh when it was pointed out that Jack playing as many minutes as he was at 32 years of age increased his risk of injury. I think Joe Johnson will get injured next. Would hardly call a 32 year old average point guard getting injured halfway through the season some giant stroke of luck. 

Now Brook Lopez and Joe Johnson are both averaging 34 minutes a game.  Here is a fun article about the Bulls from a couple years ago:

http://hangtime.blogs.nba.com/2014/01/04/blowout-minutes-contributing-to-chicagos-injury-woes/