Does it bother anybody that Ainge apparently wanted Winslow over Porzingis?

[ssspence]

A couple summers ago, I went through every draft pick Ainge has made and put the picks into three categories all based on if the draft had happened today where would the player have been drafted.  The three categories were Higher, Same general range, Lower.  Ainge was split about evenly in the categories.  So he is an average drafter.  He had some real home runs i.e. Rondo, Jefferson, Sullinger, and Davis, but also had plenty of disastrous misses like Melo, Johnson, Pruitt, and Giddens, and then of course he had the guys that would have been about the same like West, G. Green, Banks, and Bradley (though Bradley is probably higher and Banks lower today).  If you looked at it again there may be some movement of categories, but I think the misses would probably have about the same numbers as the hits.

Sullinger was not a home run. He was not a diamond in the rough, unearthed by Ainge. Sully fell into Ainge's lap, and he's a limited role player, so... good pick, but not some feat of scouting.

Ainge made a number of good picks in his early years. Jefferson, West, Allen, Perk, Davis, and Gomes were high value at their slots. Buying the Rondo pick was his height.

But since? Average at best. A lot of guys out of the league. Those who are still around are mostly average players, or worse. And many All-Stars selected after his picks.

Who is Ainge's best pick since Rondo, considering the slot, and the players taken before and after in that draft? Bradley? It's just been too long since Ainge has hit on an All-Star caliber pick.

Sullinger was picked 21st.  In a redraft he goes in the back half of the top 10.  That is a homerun pick for value.  I agree it was a no brainer, but he was a no brainer for about 10 picks before the Celtics and no other team picked him.  That said Ainge picked Melo 22nd that draft and in a redraft he might not even get drafted.  Far bigger miss than Sullinger was a hit.

Fair enough, though I don't agree he'd be picked in the top 10 of that draft if it were done over today. But that's only half the discussion. Ainge can't control who was picked before the Cs slot -- only those available at the time of the pick. And better prospects were taken after Sully (and Melo).

Overall, I'd say the 2012 draft was average at best for the Cs. With two 1sts they got 1 rotation player.

There are only 5 players from 2012 that you can say for sure would have been drafted ahead of Sullinger in a re-draft today.  Davis, Drummond, Lillard, Barnes, and Green.  Beal, MKG, and Middleton are also possible though aren't a given.  That would put Sullinger at 9.  You can argue some others, but I think he would go 8 or 9.

For support, Sullinger is 7th in ppg, 3rd in rpg, and 10th in apg.  He is 17th in games, but 11th in minutes.  He is 7th in BPM and 6th in VORP.   He would go in the top 10 in a redraft.  The only person drafted after him that would clearly be ahead of him in the redraft is Draymond Green. He was selected 21st, that is a very clear winning pick for Ainge.

Beal and Middleton are givens.

I'm not so sure.  Beal has played less games than Sullinger has and had taken a step back between year 2 and 3, though did jump back up for this year before he was hurt. 

Middleton is an excellent shooter, but he doesn't do much else. 

Because we see Sullinger every day we know all his flaws, and tend to overlook his strengths.  If we saw Middleton and Beal everyday, I'm not so sure you would take them over Sullinger who has better numbers in many of the key categories.

This is precisely why I didn't make a list and post it. Because only on Cs blog can folks pretend there's a "would you draft Beal or Sully" debate. Or a "would you draft Middleton or Sully" debate. Be serious.

Plenty of teams would rather have MKG than Sully. Plenty of teams would rather have Crowder over Sully. Plenty of teams would rather have Ezeli than Sully. Plenty of teams would rather have Fournier over Sully.

Sullinger is an excellent rebounder and has very strong post skills.  He shoots way too many threes (though has reduced that this year) and isn't a very good defender (though he isn't as bad as he is made out to be on here).  I think people on here are way too hard on him.  He has many positive attributes that this board does a great job of ignoring.

Correct on rebounding. Post skills? Maybe, but rarely uses them. Otherwise he's basically luggage. He is a R-O-L-E player. There's nothing wrong with that.

As for drafting him, he has a history of back problems, weight issues, and struggles with uptempo play... which is why he was drafted 21 in the first place, and likely wouldn't go as high in such redraft as you suggest.

Meanwhile, Ainge had two straight picks, and didn't take Green, Middleton, Crowder, Ezeli, Barton, etc with either of them.

[csfansince60s]

Sullinger is an excellent rebounder and has very strong post skills.  He shoots way too many threes (though has reduced that this year) and isn't a very good defender (though he isn't as bad as he is made out to be on here).  I think people on here are way too hard on him.  He has many positive attributes that this board does a great job of ignoring.

Agree. The other thing that people forget about both Sully and Smart is that had they come out the year before they did come out, they would both have gone higher than where they were eventually picked.

Both were value picks.

[ssspence]

Both Sullinger and Smart were value picks.

 

[guava_wrench]

We've all heard the report that before targeting the 9th pick, Ainge wanted to deal into the fourth pick to draft Winslow only to be rebuffed. However, it seems like from early returns Porzingis is going to be a better player and would also fill a greater need for the Celtics. Even if Winslow ends up being a very good player, it would seem that Porzingis being so uniquely skilled for a 7-footer would still make him more valuable than just a very good wing guy who isn't on that LeBron James-ian level.

I just really hope if a similar situation comes up in the future Ainge does not have any bias against the European player and that he doesn't play it safe and take someone with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

We couldn't even move up to get Winslow, and you are talking about moving up even higher?

Flawed premise. Who says Ainge didn't like Porzingis?

Regardless, it makes no sense to talk about Porzingis when evaluating whether moving up for Winslow was a good idea or not. Either trying to get Winslow for that package was a good idea or it wasn't. It is irrelevant that Porzingis or Towns will be better.

[guava_wrench]

Sullinger is an excellent rebounder and has very strong post skills.  He shoots way too many threes (though has reduced that this year) and isn't a very good defender (though he isn't as bad as he is made out to be on here).  I think people on here are way too hard on him.  He has many positive attributes that this board does a great job of ignoring.

Agree. The other thing that people forget about both Sully and Smart is that had they come out the year before they did come out, they would both have gone higher than where they were eventually picked.

Both were value picks.

The other way to look at that was that another year of seeing them and understanding their limitations. It showed they were previously overvalued and led to Smart, in particular, still being overvalued because people remembered how much they liked him the year before.

Sully's problem was injury, so he was a value pick so long as he stays healthy.

[ssspence]

We've all heard the report that before targeting the 9th pick, Ainge wanted to deal into the fourth pick to draft Winslow only to be rebuffed. However, it seems like from early returns Porzingis is going to be a better player and would also fill a greater need for the Celtics. Even if Winslow ends up being a very good player, it would seem that Porzingis being so uniquely skilled for a 7-footer would still make him more valuable than just a very good wing guy who isn't on that LeBron James-ian level.

I just really hope if a similar situation comes up in the future Ainge does not have any bias against the European player and that he doesn't play it safe and take someone with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

We couldn't even move up to get Winslow, and you are talking about moving up even higher?

Flawed premise. Who says Ainge didn't like Porzingis?

Regardless, it makes no sense to talk about Porzingis when evaluating whether moving up for Winslow was a good idea or not. Either trying to get Winslow for that package was a good idea or it wasn't. It is irrelevant that Porzingis or Towns will be better.

This is in reference to the rumor that Ainge tried to move up to #4 to draft Winslow, not the later effort to move up to #9 or #10 to get him.

The Knicks passed, and drafted Porzingis. So, within the context of the rumor, it's not a a direct and fair premise.

[guava_wrench]

We've all heard the report that before targeting the 9th pick, Ainge wanted to deal into the fourth pick to draft Winslow only to be rebuffed. However, it seems like from early returns Porzingis is going to be a better player and would also fill a greater need for the Celtics. Even if Winslow ends up being a very good player, it would seem that Porzingis being so uniquely skilled for a 7-footer would still make him more valuable than just a very good wing guy who isn't on that LeBron James-ian level.

I just really hope if a similar situation comes up in the future Ainge does not have any bias against the European player and that he doesn't play it safe and take someone with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

We couldn't even move up to get Winslow, and you are talking about moving up even higher?

Flawed premise. Who says Ainge didn't like Porzingis?

Regardless, it makes no sense to talk about Porzingis when evaluating whether moving up for Winslow was a good idea or not. Either trying to get Winslow for that package was a good idea or it wasn't. It is irrelevant that Porzingis or Towns will be better.

This is in reference to the rumor that Ainge tried to move up to #4 to draft Winslow, not the later effort to move up to #9 or #10 to get him.

The Knicks passed, and drafted Porzingis. So, within the context of the rumor, it's not a a direct and fair premise.

Ah, I stand corrected.

[LilRip]

Since wiffed on Giorgi deng, Rodney hood, and Hollis Jefferson.  Danny's drafting acumen is fairly poor.  See our current state

and were you on record as wanting all of those players prior to the draft?

I know I was on record as wanting Dieng and Hood.  Dieng has been a decent backup center but not a world beater.  hasn't shown flashes at the level KO has.  I can live with the KO pick.   
I was ok with Young over Hood on draft night though I wanted Hood.  Young is still young while Hood had a couple of years on him.  Young's shown some improvement but not as much as I'd like.  if he hasn't made some significant improvement for next year, I'll go along with it was a really bad pick.

How about picking Olynyk over the Greek Freak?

no issues with that at all.  Greek Freak was pure speculation on potential and he's still not as good as Freak-lovers claim he is.  he's got a lot of athleticism but he's inconsistent just like KO.

Im sorry but I think only C's fans would still pick KO over Giannis. And not because KO can't play because he can.

[LooseCannon]

Since wiffed on Giorgi deng, Rodney hood, and Hollis Jefferson.  Danny's drafting acumen is fairly poor.  See our current state

and were you on record as wanting all of those players prior to the draft?

I know I was on record as wanting Dieng and Hood.  Dieng has been a decent backup center but not a world beater.  hasn't shown flashes at the level KO has.  I can live with the KO pick.   
I was ok with Young over Hood on draft night though I wanted Hood.  Young is still young while Hood had a couple of years on him.  Young's shown some improvement but not as much as I'd like.  if he hasn't made some significant improvement for next year, I'll go along with it was a really bad pick.

How about picking Olynyk over the Greek Freak?

no issues with that at all.  Greek Freak was pure speculation on potential and he's still not as good as Freak-lovers claim he is.  he's got a lot of athleticism but he's inconsistent just like KO.

Im sorry but I think only C's fans would still pick KO over Giannis. And not because KO can't play because he can.

It's not as wide of a gulf as some people make it out to be.  It's close enough and Olynyk is good enough that it can't be seen as a failure if you get an above-average player for that slot.  It's like criticizing the Rockets for taking Olajuwon instead if Jordan.

 Giannis is not some can't-miss future star at this point.  He still has a decent shot of turning out to be as valuable as a somewhat better but equally inconsistent Jeff Green.  I think he needs to be used more like a point forward than groomed to be a go-to scorer, like a better version of Evan Turner in the Celtics system.

[Cman]

Nope. Next question?

[nickagneta]

Over the first 2 1/2 seasons that Olynyk and Giannis have been in the league, IMO, their performance has been very similar. Not sure anyone can argue that over the entirety of that time that the Greek Freak has outperformed KO. Its pretty close overall.

But, Giannis' numbers are getting better whereas KO's numbers are pretty much the same every year. Giannis is also 3 1/2 years younger than Kelly. For these reasons I think its fair to say that Giannis most likely has a much higher ceiling than Olynyk. For that reason the Freak is definitely the player that should have been picked but that's all hindsight telling us that. At the time of the draft, KO was a proven college star with upside and Giannis was a player with very little film on him with giant upside but giant bust potential.

BTW, the player I wanted in that draft was Michael Carter-Williams. After he went I wanted Steven Adams. After he went, I didn't care who they took so long as it wasn't Olynyk.

[obnoxiousmime]

We've all heard the report that before targeting the 9th pick, Ainge wanted to deal into the fourth pick to draft Winslow only to be rebuffed. However, it seems like from early returns Porzingis is going to be a better player and would also fill a greater need for the Celtics. Even if Winslow ends up being a very good player, it would seem that Porzingis being so uniquely skilled for a 7-footer would still make him more valuable than just a very good wing guy who isn't on that LeBron James-ian level.

I just really hope if a similar situation comes up in the future Ainge does not have any bias against the European player and that he doesn't play it safe and take someone with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

We couldn't even move up to get Winslow, and you are talking about moving up even higher?

Flawed premise. Who says Ainge didn't like Porzingis?

Regardless, it makes no sense to talk about Porzingis when evaluating whether moving up for Winslow was a good idea or not. Either trying to get Winslow for that package was a good idea or it wasn't. It is irrelevant that Porzingis or Towns will be better.

I'm just trying to understand how Ainge ranked the two players. Obviously, this is just speculation because the initial report may not be true. It's a fun exercise that we're allowed to do on message boards.

It's not irrelevant. If the report is true, it means Ainge valued Winslow higher than Porzingis. To me, it seems like at this point Porzingis is going to be better and would have been a better fit for this team. I never said Ainge didn't like Porzingis, just that he preferred Winslow to him. I suppose based on when this proposal was made you could say he didn't know Porzingis would be there at 4, but for the basis of this discussion we're assuming he did.

Why do people get so defensive when anything resembling a "slam" comes up? I like Ainge, but I think he does sometimes draft too safe and also seems to ignore international players.

[ssspence]

Since wiffed on Giorgi deng, Rodney hood, and Hollis Jefferson.  Danny's drafting acumen is fairly poor.  See our current state

and were you on record as wanting all of those players prior to the draft?

I know I was on record as wanting Dieng and Hood.  Dieng has been a decent backup center but not a world beater.  hasn't shown flashes at the level KO has.  I can live with the KO pick.   
I was ok with Young over Hood on draft night though I wanted Hood.  Young is still young while Hood had a couple of years on him.  Young's shown some improvement but not as much as I'd like.  if he hasn't made some significant improvement for next year, I'll go along with it was a really bad pick.

How about picking Olynyk over the Greek Freak?

no issues with that at all.  Greek Freak was pure speculation on potential and he's still not as good as Freak-lovers claim he is.  he's got a lot of athleticism but he's inconsistent just like KO.

Im sorry but I think only C's fans would still pick KO over Giannis. And not because KO can't play because he can.

It's not as wide of a gulf as some people make it out to be.  It's close enough and Olynyk is good enough that it can't be seen as a failure if you get an above-average player for that slot.  It's like criticizing the Rockets for taking Olajuwon instead if Jordan.

 Giannis is not some can't-miss future star at this point.  He still has a decent shot of turning out to be as valuable as a somewhat better but equally inconsistent Jeff Green.  I think he needs to be used more like a point forward than groomed to be a go-to scorer, like a better version of Evan Turner in the Celtics system.

You're underestimating the upside of GA, pure and simple.

[10610786d]

Since wiffed on Giorgi deng, Rodney hood, and Hollis Jefferson.  Danny's drafting acumen is fairly poor.  See our current state

and were you on record as wanting all of those players prior to the draft?

I know I was on record as wanting Dieng and Hood.  Dieng has been a decent backup center but not a world beater.  hasn't shown flashes at the level KO has.  I can live with the KO pick.   
I was ok with Young over Hood on draft night though I wanted Hood.  Young is still young while Hood had a couple of years on him.  Young's shown some improvement but not as much as I'd like.  if he hasn't made some significant improvement for next year, I'll go along with it was a really bad pick.

How about picking Olynyk over the Greek Freak?

no issues with that at all.  Greek Freak was pure speculation on potential and he's still not as good as Freak-lovers claim he is.  he's got a lot of athleticism but he's inconsistent just like KO.

Im sorry but I think only C's fans would still pick KO over Giannis. And not because KO can't play because he can.

It's not as wide of a gulf as some people make it out to be.  It's close enough and Olynyk is good enough that it can't be seen as a failure if you get an above-average player for that slot.  It's like criticizing the Rockets for taking Olajuwon instead if Jordan.

 Giannis is not some can't-miss future star at this point.  He still has a decent shot of turning out to be as valuable as a somewhat better but equally inconsistent Jeff Green.  I think he needs to be used more like a point forward than groomed to be a go-to scorer, like a better version of Evan Turner in the Celtics system.

You're underestimating the upside of GA, pure and simple.

He didn't talk about upside, only pointed out what he believes to be one of the however many possibilities.

You could argue he's underestimating the basement of GA.

[mkogav]

We've all heard the report that before targeting the 9th pick, Ainge wanted to deal into the fourth pick to draft Winslow only to be rebuffed. However, it seems like from early returns Porzingis is going to be a better player and would also fill a greater need for the Celtics. Even if Winslow ends up being a very good player, it would seem that Porzingis being so uniquely skilled for a 7-footer would still make him more valuable than just a very good wing guy who isn't on that LeBron James-ian level.

I just really hope if a similar situation comes up in the future Ainge does not have any bias against the European player and that he doesn't play it safe and take someone with a lower ceiling but higher floor.

Back to your basic question of "Does it bother anybody that Ainge apparently wanted Winslow over Porzingis?"

The answer is that, in a vacuum, no.

However, if you combine this with the fact in the months leading up to the 2013 draft, Ainge was strongly linked to both Giannis and Schroder and was in position to draft either, but chose to go safe with KO, I am 100% bothered by this.

I understand that hindsight is 20/20 on a guy like Porzingus, but what about Hezonja or Mudiay? I haven't seen him linked to either. Had Ainge acquired the #4-7 pick, he would have had a shot at both.

It seems that Ainge's safety zone is college players. He can spot NBA level talent on a college court a mile away. The surprise thing is that out of his 3 best draft picks to date, two can directly from HS, Big Al and Perk.

What really worries me is what happens if the Celtics win the lottery? There's already rumors that Ainge prefers Ingram over Simmons. I am not saying that he's wrong about this, but just that his bias against Intl prospects has the potential to Ainge selecting a less talented player over a once-in-a-decade talent.

The one this that makes the Simmons-situation a little different is that he's playing college ball for a year. If he chose to not play, like Exum or play in China like Mudiay, I would assume Ainge would pass on him.

Mk