LarBrd33's Optimism Thread

[crimson_stallion]

Nice to see a positive thread in general 'round here - it's not a common thing!!

I think what we need to all recognise is that Boston isn't alone in this position.

Just look at the current dominant teams:

Golden State
Nobody could have ever dreamed that Curry or Green would become THIS good - if they didn't, Golden State wouldn't be contenders.

San Antonio
Tim Duncan got drafted #1 by fluke, Kawhi Leonard became a start out of nowhere, LaMarcus Aldridge just happened to want to go "back home to Texas" the year San Antonio had cap space.

Other than Greg Popovich, the Spurs have been a contender for some 20 years now (and look like they will continue down that path) mostly due to pure fluke.   

Cleveland
Drafted Lebron (no matter how bad your team was, getting a player that good in the draft is always 90% luck)...becomes an instant contender.

Lebron leaves for Miami, Cleveland becomes really bad...gets Kyrie in the draft.

Few years later he decides to get sentimental and return to Clevleand in a year where they have cap space. The same year they fluke the #1 pick, draft Wiggins, send him to Minnesota for Kevin Love. Now we have a contender in Cleveland.  Cleveland is a contender 90% due to luck.

Q: What do they all have in common???
A: A bit of good planning, and a hell of a lot of luck

With the exception of that handful of incredibly lucky teams, nobody else in the league right now is really considered a legit contender.  Everybody else is stuck in the fight, scrambling to hold on to a playoff spot, just as we are. 

Especially in the East, where teams can go from a #3 seed to a #7 seed in the space of three days, so close are the standings.  We don't have it any worse than most other teams out there.

At the end of the day, all a GM can do is open up up doors, and make the team open to possibilities.  That means acquiring trade assets (picks, salaries, young players), freeing up cap space, and putting you in a position for a decent draft pick.   

If you do all that (as Danny has) then you have done all you can do to give yourself the best odds - after that, it all comes down to luck.

We should all look at where this Celtics team was just two seasons ago, how bleak things were for this team.  Then look how much more positive things look, just two seasons later.

We have:

1) A great young coach with tons of potential
2) A half respectable (and even fun) team to cheer for
3) A ton of cap space, picks and salaries as traceable assets (or potential future cap space)
4) A city that oozes basketball pride (believe me, that means something to the players)
5) A pretty much guaranteed top 8 draft pick (with potential to go as high as #1) for the second year in a row. 

We were a bottom 6 team only two seasons ago, so at least we are on the rise. Imagine how teams like the Bucks and Nets must feel right now?  So much promise a year or two ago, now blunt disappointment.  Ditty the Rockets, Grizzlies, Clippers. All teams with constant championship aspirations, who get dissapointed year by year.

Things aren't perfect, but they aren't so bad!

[walker834]

 I'm not a big fan of people posting stuff to create controversy either. There are too many people particularly in the media who do this and follow whatever fad or whatever. The average person has become like this too and it's annoying.  It's hard to find intelligent conversation and I feel like I'm wasting my time most days on the internet which I most likely am.  Kind of sad really.

[Future Celtics Owner]

My optimism:
1)People are starting to realize that our depth is a joke and it pads our wins and does not allow us to develop guys that have earned the minutes to show out and get better.

2)I hope Stevens is thinking a lot about our Nets pick and and the draft. The draft is like gold...its a fever they say, I hope Brad catches the fever when he sees 2017 and 2018 prospects: Dennis Smith jr Thon Bam Bam etc.
2018: Ayton and Porter and maybe Bagley
AT LEAST WE KNOW THAT ALL STAR/FRANCHISE PLAYERS ARE IN THE MIX POSSIBLY

3)Our young guys now. I hope they give Brad some reassurance and stability and make him proud by playing hard and showing how good we hoped they would be.

4)Brandon Ingram/Ben Simmons
5)Trading for a young player that Stevens likes and thinks will be great( Myles Turner/Jabari) with IT AB CROWDER and others.

[Future Celtics Owner]

Nice to see a positive thread in general 'round here - it's not a common thing!!

I think one of the problems with this forum is that I feel like it's very "black and white".  Either everything is dark and gloomy, or everything is glowing and golden - and it swings dramatically from one extreme to the other on a daily basis.

There rarely seems to be anybody who acknowledge the reality, that things are ultimately somewhere in the middle.

I think the issue is that many here are TOO great a fan, to the point where they expect nothing short of perfection, and anything less is like the end of the world.

Take a look at other teams out there. 

* Miami were doing great and looking like a potential powerhouse in the East.  Now they are struggling a little, with recent losses to Utah, New York, Brooklyn and Memphis.  Their two best players are looking like they are past their prime, and neither of their younger talents (Whiteside, Winslow or Dragic) look like they are ever going to be big stars.

* The Bucks have a plethora of young talent and were supposed to be a big powerhouse in the East when they added Monroe to the core of Giannis and Jabari.  Instead they have sucked royal butt and been one of the leagues worst teams all season long, Monroe hasn't really shown any improvement from who he was in Detroit, and Jabari looks like a bust.

* Toronto and Atlanta - two teams who lack superstars and are assembled somewhat similar to how we are - have probably been two of the more consistent teams in the East this year even though neither has really changed much on their Rosters at all since two seasons ago.

* Chicago have been up and down.  They are good enough to win a playoff series or two, not good enough to compete.

* Indiana and Detroit have been fighting to stay in the playoff race all season, and either one is at risk of dropping out any time. 

* New York has a superstar in Carmelo, a top 2 rookie in Porzingis, and they are still out of the playoff race.

* Everybody in the west not names Spurs/Warriors has pretty much underperformed all season (just look at the Rockets - ugh)

The moral of the story?  The grass always looks greener on the other side, but it rarely is. 

There are 30 teams in the NBA, and in any given season there are only ever 4 or 5 teams who can be considered legitimate contenders.  That means that being a contender means finding yourself in the top 15% of NBA teams, and being that good as a team requires just as much luck as it does skill.

For example, look at the most dominant teams in the NBA right now. 

Golden State
Who could have ever guessed they would explode like the did last year?  Pure luck that they had guys like Steph Curry, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green develop into the players they have.  Even the people who predicted Curry's rise could never in a million years have predicted he would have become THIS good.  Golden State are a pretty rare case of a team that didn't sign any big stars - they drafted guys who never looked like they had sky high potential, and those guys overdelivered in a huge way.  That barely ever happens.


San Antonio
San Antonio is a team that is loved by the basketball gods.  They had David Robinson - one of the greatest big men to ever play the game. 

Just as his career was winding down, they defied the odds (in a rediculous way) to fluke the #1 pick, which gave them Tim Duncan - one of the greatest big men to ever play the game.  They took gambles on guys like Tony Parker and Manu, who could have been busts but instead flourished into stars. 

Then when all of those guys started to age...they scored on Kawhi Leonard with the 15th pick, who comes out of nowhere to rise as one of the best SF's in the NBA...and the following summer they fluke the signing of LaMarcus Aldridge - the best free agent on the market who just happened to be a Texas wanting to return home during the one single season in which the Spurs actually had cap space.

Other than Greg Popovich, the Spurs have been a contender for some 20 years now mostly be pure fluke.   


Cleveland
Cavs got lucky when they drafted Lebron, no matter how you look at it.  Even if you have the worst record in the NBA, the draft lottery ensures there are no guarantees.  Any time you get a player of Lebron's caliber in the draft, you have some luck on your side.

Anyway, Lebron comes to Clevleand and made them a contender for years.  Leaves for Miami...where he wins two titles. 

Cleveland become terrible (not even by design) and pulls Kyie Irving in the draft.  A couple of years later Lebron decides to get sentimental and return to his old team...while in the same season Cleveland gets stupid lucky by beating almost impossible odds to get Andrew Wiggins with the #1 pick - who they then trade to Minny for Kevin Love (who happened to be approaching free agency, and wanting out). 

The next closest thing to a powerhouse team is the Clippers - they were actually built methodically to be a powerhouse team, and yet have never truly lived up to their potential.

So at the end of the day what does this tell you?

As disappointing as it is, all the Celtics owners/coaches/GM's can do is try their best to put the team in a position to get talent.  Ultimately it doesn't matter how perfect they might play it (and they have played it pretty darn well) it's always luck that has the final say - just ask Philly and Brooklyn.

We should all look at where this Celtics team was just two seasons ago, and how bleak things looked - how depressed everybody was. Look how far the team has come in such a short time, despite no luck coming our way.  We have a top coach, a GM willing to do what needs to be done, a core of good young kids who mostly play the right way, and we've been in a position to compete for the playoffs all year long. 

That's a pretty good place to be given where we were in 2013, so I say we should all acknowledge that the team has weaknesses - but we should also appreciate the fact that we have:

1) A great young coach with tons of potential

2) A half respectable (and even fun) team to cheer for

3) A ton of cap space, picks and salaries as traceable assets (or potential future cap space)

4) A city that oozes basketball pride (believe me, that means something to the players)

5) A pretty much guaranteed top 8 draft pick (with potential to go as high as #1) for the second year in a row. 
 
It's not so bad.

I get where you are coming from. But to say the Hawks and Raptors do not have a star is wrong and neither have won a dam thing.

Do you remember when we got KG? How long did it take you to consider us the favorites? Thats how it feels to be a favorite/demand a championship. The first year with KG, the Hawks brought us to 7 games, and we won the championship....do you think most of us thought the Hawks were just an inch out of our league or had they had some more luck they would have beat LA and won the championship?

I'm not trying to be disrespectful or anything I just want the stallion to understand how future thinks. Unfortunately KG's knees prevented us from 3peting and possibly that 2nd year we could have gotten pretty dam close to 70 wins and still won....with a good kg


I do get your point and things could be worse....but I think they could be better, but its a risk. So just so we get eachother ya know. I would rather risk what we have as a 500 team and make a favorite. We only count championships, really, look at the Bulls even with 6 with MJ they still would hang division banners lol.losers.

[flybono]

Your optimism is great.

Ainge is not the Messiah. He did build a contender, but only 1 ring to show for it.
Held on to Allen to long but did take brooklyn to the wood shed for the picks.
For all the good there is much head scratching from Ainge.

Evident tonight, Knicks draft and develop Grant, Bulls with Portis all selected before Rozier who sits in maine.
JYoung selected before Napier and Capela.
KO before Dieng and Gobert.

You don't have a Star you better nail the draft. Last few years Ainge has not..

[crimson_stallion]

I get where you are coming from. But to say the Hawks and Raptors do not have a star is wrong and neither have won a dam thing.

Did anybody seriously look at Al Horford, Paul Millsap or Jeff Teague as big stars prior to the start of last season? Do you remember where people predicted the Hawks would finish?  Lottery.

Did anybody consider DeMar Derozan or Kyle Lowry to be big star players two seasons ago, when Toronto was essentially invisible as a team?  Not at all.  They were really good players, borderline stars.

Nobody looked at any of those guys as being transcendent players, or the type of players who were good enough to change the outcome of a franchise.     

If the Celtics had a .650 win record right now, people would be talking about Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder the same way they have been talking about Derozan, Lowry, Millsap, Teague and Horford for the past season and a half.

Those were all good players, who gained masses of attention/respect the moment their teams started winning a lot of games...even though they (as players) didn't really change that much from who they previously were. 

Being on a winning can make any average old skunk smell like the most beautiful rose.

Do you remember when we got KG? How long did it take you to consider us the favorites? Thats how it feels to be a favorite/demand a championship. The first year with KG, the Hawks brought us to 7 games, and we won the championship....do you think most of us thought the Hawks were just an inch out of our league or had they had some more luck they would have beat LA and won the championship?

I'm not trying to be disrespectful or anything I just want the stallion to understand how future thinks. Unfortunately KG's knees prevented us from 3peting and possibly that 2nd year we could have gotten pretty dam close to 70 wins and still won....with a good kg

Question is, when we got KG - how much of that was luck? 

Pierce seriously considered walking during Boston's stuggled, but he stuck around - lucky we had a guy so loyal, as few players are.

Ainge traded Delonte West, Wally Sczerbiak and #5 (Jeff Green) to the Sonics for Ray Allen - it was highway robbery, but the Sonics decided it was time to blow things up and move on from Ray, and Ainge swooped in just in time. 

After this KG saw the foundation in place, agree to the trade that sent him to Boston - another deal that was (in hindsight) highway robbery, but happened just because Ainge was in the right place at the right time. 

If we Pierce had forced his way out of Boston, we probably never get Ray. If we never got Ray, KG would never have agreed to the trade.  If KG never came, we never got banner 18.

Ainge has even admitted himself that the trade which brought KG was ultimately a huge fluke of luck (right place, right time). 

I do get your point and things could be worse....but I think they could be better, but its a risk. So just so we get eachother ya know. I would rather risk what we have as a 500 team and make a favorite. We only count championships, really, look at the Bulls even with 6 with MJ they still would hang division banners lol.losers.

I get what you are saying, and of course it could be better. 

But the thing is, it doesn't matter which team you support - it could ALWAYS be better.  Unless you are the 1 team out of 30 that holds up that championship banner at the season's end! 

For 29 teams out of 30, every single year, the NBA season ends in disappointment.  If the only thing that satisfies you as a fan is an championship, then you are probably going to spend a LOT of time being dissapointed...no matter what team you root for.   

Three years ago when I heard that Boston had traded Pierce and KG, I was crushed.  I didn't feel like I could watch a Celtics game again - those guys embodied what it meant to be a Celtic.  Then the disaster that was 2013/14 happened and it looked like everything was just going down hill - I thought it could be years before I watched any Celtic team go out there and actually be competitive again. 

Now I sit here, only two years later, and I'm just happy to be able to sit here and watch the Celtics winning some games again.  Happy to be able to watch guys like Thomas, Bradley, Crowder, Amir going out there and playing with real Celtic Pride.  This team WILL get better in the coming years, but until that day this enough to keep me going.

[SHAQATTACK]

I will say this

His post are more entertaining than the Celtics basketball

[Vox_Populi]

I will say this

His post are more entertaining than the Celtics basketball

Ha, TP for the laugh. And I agree, at least recently.

[GreenFaith1819]

[crimson_stallion]

Your optimism is great.

Ainge is not the Messiah. He did build a contender, but only 1 ring to show for it.
Held on to Allen to long but did take brooklyn to the wood shed for the picks.
For all the good there is much head scratching from Ainge.

Evident tonight, Knicks draft and develop Grant, Bulls with Portis all selected before Rozier who sits in maine.
JYoung selected before Napier and Capela.
KO before Dieng and Gobert.

You don't have a Star you better nail the draft. Last few years Ainge has not..

* Jerian Grant is averaring 5 points and 2 assists for New York, and was drafted 19th overall
* Portis is averaging 7 and 5 for Chicago, and was drafted 22nd overall
* Napier is averaging 4 points and 2 assists, and was taken 24th overall
* Capela is averaging 7 and 7 for Houston, and was drafted 25th overall
* Dieng is averaging 8 and 6 and was taken 21st overall
* Gbert is averaging 9 and 10 and was taken 27th overall

None of these guys look like stars at this point.  Some of them (Dieng, Gobert, Portis) look like they could become very nice (but also very replaceable) starters, while others (like Grant, Napier) don't really like anything special at all.

As for Danny's picks:

Regarding Young
When Ainge selected Young where he did, the choice was universally praised. Pretty much everybody raved about this as one of the most underrated moves of the draft, Everybody thought it was a huge steal. 

Ainge wasn't alone in liking Young at that draft spot, and if he didn't take him it wouldn't have been long before somebody else did. 

Sadly his lack of BBIQ, elite athleticism and general swagger/motor seem to have held him back from living up to his potential - although the story is not yet written, I don't see much becoming of him.

That said, Ainge already had a safe pick in Smart, so he could afford to take a gable with their second pick.  He did, and so far the bet gamble hasn't paid.


Regarding Olynyk
It's still very much debatable whether Dieng is actually a better player than Olynyk.  His box score stats are no better, nor are his advanced stats.

Gobert is. 

Regardless, Danny had made the decision to trade up to the #13 pick, and he obviously thought Dieng and Gobert were too high risk to gamble a lottery pick on, so he went with the safer pick in Olynyk - especially given offense was a big area of need for us at the time. 

No GM in the top 20 made a run at Dieng or Gobert, so it seems all the other GM's pretty much felt the same way.

Once you get past the top 20 usually your chance of scoring a useful player is incredibly low, so teams are far more willing to gamble on high risk/high upside players - hence you end up with your Gobert / Dieng situations.

It's always easier in hindsight, but I can't imagine that there were many GM's in the league at the time who would have taken Gobert or Dieng over Olynyk.   


Regarding Rozier
Rozier's physical attributes were among the most impressive of all the draftees this year.

He also has great intangibles - Ainge and Brad were ultimately won over by his motor, his drive, his toughness and his work ethic.   

In college he also showed the ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor.

He was pretty impressive in Summer League is straight up dominating the D-League (20 points, 9 assists, 6.5 rebounds per game). 

He's still only 21 years old - none of us yet knows how good he can/will be.  I wouldn't sleep on him just yet.


Considering that Ainge doesn't have the power of hindsight, it's hard to criticise him for the decisions he made in those drafts.  They all made sense at the time.

[oldtype]

Ultimately, worst case scenario is that we suck and miss the playoffs and end up with two lottery picks.

That alone is a fine cause for optimism.

[PhoSita]

Honestly LarBrd, I'm not bothered so much by your pessimism.  I am bothered by so many threads becoming about you instead of the Celtics.

That aside, I appreciate the attempt at finding things to be optimistic about.




As for where the team is at, that Nets pick is the saving grace.  If it doesn't turn into a really good prospect, that will be borderline panic time for me with this rebuild.  I just don't see much of a way out of mediocrity unless that pick hits.  Because that's probably our last good chance at a top prospect, unless Danny sends this team back into the tank. 

I think as long as there's a chance to hang out in the middle while relying on picks from other teams, though, the Celts are gonna go that route.


Coming into this season, I had misgivings about the off-season moves, because I thought they signaled a premature transition to focusing on winning in the short term and setting the team up for a big trade instead of developing young players.  I was willing to push that aside if, as the "statistical models" predicted, the Celts were a 48-50 win team with a shot at winning a first round series. 

So far, it does not look like the Celts are that kind of team.  I think they'll be lucky to make the playoffs this year.

More likely than not, Danny will mostly just stand pat at the deadline.  This is our team to watch for the next 4 or 5 months, such as it is.  Hopefully we get some exciting stuff to watch when the lottery happens and on draft night.

[crimson_stallion]

I'm also not that hard on Sully.  I think he is our best rebounder. He needs to knock down shots though. he's really in the same position KO is.  Just different assets and strengths and weaknesses.

My frustration with Sully is that from what I've seen the past three seasons, his limitations are ultimately all mental, and all things that could be improved upon if he had the will to do it.

Ultimately the only thing holding him back from being a really good player, is him.

Sully has a LOT of talent.  He could be really good starter, possibly even a borderline All-Star.  He's got the talent to get there.  But he is horribly lacking in discipline.

- He can't keep in shape
- He seems to completely lack all respect for authority
- His motor fluctuations from great to nonexistent on a day by day basis
- His shot selection (and general decision making on the court) is frustratingly poor

Sully's most productive season in the league was his rookie year - a season in which I was utterly convinced he had All-Star potential. 

Since that time he has fallen further and further off the cliff on a year-by-year basis, to the point where I just can't accept anymore excuses.  He apparently started this season in the best shape of his career, he was given the starting role for an extended period of time, he's in a contract year, and he STILL can't keep it together. 

The only way I can make sense of all this is that in his rookie year, Sully had Doc Rivers, Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett around him.  All guys who were known for their tireless work ethics, and for their "take no crap from anybody" attitudes.  When surrounded by these guys, Sully clearly excelled, which leaves me thinking that he must be the type of guy who needs to have a permanent babysitter - a stern veteran to constantly yell at him and keep his butt in line. 

For Sully's sake, I hope Danny finds a way to trade him to San Antonio.  I think if he's going to excel anywhere, it's going to be there.  Because if he doesn't get off his butt, Popovich will kick it so hard that he won't be sitting for weeks 

As he is now though, in all honesty, I would have no hesitation trading Sully to the Lakers in return for Brandon Bass.  For all his faults and limitations, Bass gave his all every single night, and you always knew what to expect from him. 

I'll take a guy who uses good effort to make the most of minimal talent, over a guy who wastes good talent with minimal effort, any day.

As great a coach as Brad Stevens is, he's a "nice guy" coach.  I don't think he's has the type of personality to get through to a guy like Sully.

[LarBrd33]

This is Celticsblog, not LarBrd33 blog, get over yourself and show some humility

I totally agree.  Too many threads have been derailed by people calling me out for my opinions, saying I'm biased against Celtic players, calling me a troll or hater.  Look it's not my fault our rookies are irrelevant to the league right now and the team is hovering around .500.  For example, I don't immediately participate in the group delusion that the rando we took 28th who can't even hit shots in summer league is a future star... While subsequently suggesting we go after a guy like Cj McCollum...  and people react by suggesting I'm a Celtic hater who overrates prospects on other teams.    So I figured I'd spend a thread pointing out the things I'm actually pretty encouraged by with the team right now.  I only used my name in the title, because I wanted to make sure the handful of instigators who think I hate the team would see it.   My hope is that I'll stop seeing my name pop up in threads I don't even participate in.

I'm a big fan of the Celtics. My attitude towards the team is reflective of how it is in any given year.  I never considered the toine/Pierce teams a contender... I never bought into the Gerald green hype... But on the flip side, I loved the obvious potential of big al and had nothing but positivity toward the brief KG era.  You'll see more positivity when there are more things to be positive about.   I think it's possible that big things are coming in the coming months.

[celticsclay]

lb, in all honestly, it is not really whether you are optimistic or pessimistic. you, as you often do, miss the points that people are making about your posts. indeed, that you seem to intentionally not address people's criticisms and shift the focus (e.g. this thread) is one of the critiques about you.

most recently, your refusal to take responsibility for your earlier statements about the nets winning 35 to 40 games this season is another case in point. in a specific point you state that the injuries to the nets are cause of their bad record, and that without such injuries the nets would win 35-40 games.

subsequent posters clearly and emphatically point out your avoidance of being seen as wrong as well as the obvious absurdity of your statement. you come off as being dishonest in such moments.

the general consensus on this board, if i may hazard to speak for many here, is that too often you refuse to own up to repeatedly over the top statements that turn out to be incorrect.

others may chime in, this overly long list of "optimism" misses the clearly stated points of other posters. i have asked you before to reflect upon your posting, i hope you do so since you have much to offer to the board.

I agree. Very well said.