One Of These Is Marcus

[PhoSita]

That wasn't your original post...you just posted some stat lines and said "Hey look Smart is the same."

In selecting the players referenced in the original post I actually paid attention to other bits of context, like the ones I mentioned with Payton.

Yes, it's easy to pick and choose which stats you want to use to provide a more flattering comparison, if you like.

I challenge you to demonstrate how I've done that here.

Smart has taken almost half of his shots from three point territory.  Payton barely took shots from outside, and was actually a pretty efficient scorer inside the arc.  That's a huge departure from what Smart has done so far.

[LarBrd33]

We've had a couple days of overdue Smart-bashing.   I do think he can get it together, though.  If Marcus Smart was putting up stats like this on a team like Toronto, I'd be creating threads like, "Hey... do you think it might be worth it if we offered up the #16 pick for Marcus Smart... Smart sucks, but surely he has more potential that whatever trash we're going to get with the #16 pick... he's only 21 years old and according to Toronto homers on the Raptors forums, Smart has been a far better defender than his stats suggest and is a hungry and motivated kid and has high intangibles"   ... The fans here who had heard of Marcus Smart would probably bury me for the the idea, but I'd stand by it until the bitter end. 

[PhoSita]

In your OP you compare only stats that create a false comparison as to the player that Marcus Smart is or can become.  He changes games in an extremely positive way and all people want to do is focus on the things he hasn't done well yet.  People focus on his own scoring and not whether the team functions well or not with and without him.  Last year the C's were in fact, as a team, much better with him than without him offensively.  With him 103.7 off. rat., and 100.1 without. 

My point in the original post is to pose the question -- how have young guards who struggle on offense to the degree Marcus has struggled tended to fare over the rest of their career?

Yes, if we ignore Smart's offense, he does a lot of things that we can feel good about.  The fact remains, basketball is first and foremost about putting the ball in the hoop.  If we're satisfied with Smart being a defensive role player, then there's not a lot of reason to complain about what he's done so far.  He's been a nice defensive role player who generally hasn't taken enough shots to really hurt the team on offense.

But we drafted him at #6 with the hope that he could one day become one of the main guys for this team.  Viewing his play through that lens, he's been disappointing.  You need to be at least a decent offensive player to have a large role on a good team. 

Smart is miles and miles away from being a decent offensive player.  Last year, he was at least passable as an off-ball shooter from deep.  This year, he's been completely hopeless from outside as well as everywhere else.

[PhoSita]

By the way guys, I should say, I like Smart.  I was optimistic about him having a good season this year.  I've been disappointed so far.

I went into this hoping to find some encouraging comparisons.  Guys who struggled to start their career but went on to success in much bigger roles.  For the most part, I was not able to find them.  I didn't cherry pick to ensure that the comparisons would all be underwhelming.  That's just how it turned out.

Again, if somebody wants to point out how the filters I used to create the original sample were so misleading, aside from suggesting that we should ignore Smart's offense entirely, I'm interested to hear it.

[mctyson]

That wasn't your original post...you just posted some stat lines and said "Hey look Smart is the same."

In selecting the players referenced in the original post I actually paid attention to other bits of context, like the ones I mentioned with Payton.

Yes, it's easy to pick and choose which stats you want to use to provide a more flattering comparison, if you like.

I challenge you to demonstrate how I've done that here.

Smart has taken almost half of his shots from three point territory.  Payton barely took shots from outside, and was actually a pretty efficient scorer inside the arc.  That's a huge departure from what Smart has done so far.

You just picked 4 players though.  How may guards, in their 2nd year in the league, at 23 or younger, put up stat lines "similar" to Smart's?  I bet dozens. 

Here is one thing I know about Smart versus the guys you picked.  Smart will make an NBA All-Defensive 1st team, possibly this year.  Most likely he will make multiple squads.  He is an elite defensive player.  If he even becomes average at offense (something Payton became) he will be an All-Star quality player.

He is not there yet.  But I believe he can be that.

[mctyson]

also...Mike James was 27 in his 2nd year in the league. 

[PhoSita]

You just picked 4 players though.  How may guards, in their 2nd year in the league, at 23 or younger, put up stat lines "similar" to Smart's?  I bet dozens.

Actually what I did is I went to Basketball-Reference.com, put in a series of characteristics and statistical filters to try and find players who started their careers in a similar fashion to Marcus.  From that sample, I picked out the 4 that looked most similar to me.


Filters:

- 3 point era
- Height: 6' to 6'5''
- Position: G
- First and second year in the league combined
- < 9 points per game
- < 5 rebounds per game
- < 4 assists per game
- < 37.5% FG

Link

Check it out and tell me how unreasonable I was to select the guys I did.

You can expand the sample to include guys who scored a bit more points (e.g. less than 10, or less than 12) and who scored with a bit more efficiency (e.g. less than 40%).

You'll get names like Anthony Johnson and Iman Shumpert.  A bit more flattering, perhaps, but still we're talking about defensive role players.

[PhoSita]

also...Mike James was 27 in his 2nd year in the league.

I know.  So that's one of the flattering comparisons that you can almost throw out on that alone.

As an aside, though, that's really weird.  Comes into the league at age 26, struggles like heck to score, but eventually turns into a sharpshooter.  Scores 20 points per game at one point.  Sticks around until age 38.

[littleteapot]

I obviously think that there is basically no chance Smart becomes as good as Gary Payton.

However, writing off the comp because of their overall FG% early in their careers is lazy. Payton shot .459 and .461 from 2 and .077 and .130 from 3 in his first 2 seasons whereas Smart shot .410 .397 from 2 and .335 and .210 from 3 in his first 2. Their TS% between their first 2 years was .476 for Payton and .473 for Smart.

Now, one BIG thing Payton did early in his career that Smart didn't do was play 82 games. That to me is the biggest question with Smart.

[The Oracle]

By the way guys, I should say, I like Smart.  I was optimistic about him having a good season this year.  I've been disappointed so far.

I went into this hoping to find some encouraging comparisons.  Guys who struggled to start their career but went on to success in much bigger roles.  For the most part, I was not able to find them.  I didn't cherry pick to ensure that the comparisons would all be underwhelming.  That's just how it turned out.

Again, if somebody wants to point out how the filters I used to create the original sample were so misleading, aside from suggesting that we should ignore Smart's offense entirely, I'm interested to hear it.

LOL there is just no changing some people's minds.  Your OP contains very limited parameters and was obviously done to try to prove your own bias observations.  Judging Marcus Smart by his shooting performance so far this year is just plain nonsensical.  I believe it was in the 1st game I saw him play this year without multiple taped up fingers that he injured his knee.  Now he is coming off both a knee injury and a major shooting hand injury and people want to bash him.  It is just off the charts silly.  He is without a doubt an extremely positive impactful player and that is all that needs to be said!

[celticsclay]

That wasn't your original post...you just posted some stat lines and said "Hey look Smart is the same."

In selecting the players referenced in the original post I actually paid attention to other bits of context, like the ones I mentioned with Payton.

Yes, it's easy to pick and choose which stats you want to use to provide a more flattering comparison, if you like.

I challenge you to demonstrate how I've done that here.

Smart has taken almost half of his shots from three point territory.  Payton barely took shots from outside, and was actually a pretty efficient scorer inside the arc.  That's a huge departure from what Smart has done so far.

You have already admitted a major flaw in your selection. All these guys have played 50-100% more NBA games already than Smart. What do the players look like that have played just one full season? Better or worse? At this point the comparison is apples to oranges.

Edit: I also agree that throwing Peyton was pretty lazy if the stats are correct that they had similar true shooting percentages.

If you want to say your disappointed with smart, just say your disappointed with smart. No need to come up with some bizarre stat range based on a tiny sample to do so..

[PhoSita]

I obviously think that there is basically no chance Smart becomes as good as Gary Payton.

However, writing off the comp because of their overall FG% early in their careers is lazy.

Again, the big difference for me is that Payton basically didn't take three pointers.  Smart takes half his shots from deep.

So the fact that Gary shot 45% overall while Smart has shot far lower than that is pretty significant.

[PhoSita]

LOL there is just no changing some people's minds. 

....

He is without a doubt an extremely positive impactful player and that is all that needs to be said!

Yup, I guess you're right.

[celticsclay]

Did you realize JR Bremer's second year included 36 total games and was in about 10 minutes per game? He had one season of 63 games on a pretty ugly celtics team that included 41 shots. The fact that you included him in this implies you were just going for shock value.

[PhoSita]

If you want to say your disappointed with smart, just say your disappointed with smart. No need to come up with some bizarre stat range based on a tiny sample to do so..

The sample is 80 games.

The stat range is, really simply, Smarts points, assists, rebounds, and field goal percentage.

I don't know what's so bizarre or misleading about that.

Once I actually look at the sample (again, please, take a look at the link posted previously), I try to look at other factors.  Like minutes per game, games played, Win Shares, and so on.  That's how I singled out the names I've mentioned earlier in the post.


Sure, you can mention Gary Payton if you want to believe Smart is like him, just by looking at their True Shooting.  But their shot selection as young players was completely different, so that makes very little sense.

Smart, so far in his career, has been a combo guard with a low usage rate who has taken nearly half his shots from deep and rarely gotten to the free throw line.  So I think if you want to make a reasonable comparison you have to look for other players who fit that description.