One Of These Is Marcus

[jpotter33]

I don't see any point in trying to gauge Marcus off of his stats so far. Between injuries and the direction/makeup of the team, there are just way too many contextual factors to try and predict anything based off of his stats right now. I'm sure you can find stats pointing at him being the next Gary Payton right now, but you could also probably find stats comparing him to someone who was out of the league after three years, too.

The fact of the matter is, there are just too many inconsistencies and contextual factors to make any type of reliable analysis like this.

[PhoSita]

I don't see any point in trying to gauge Marcus off of his stats so far. Between injuries and the direction/makeup of the team, there are just way too many contextual factors to try and predict anything based off of his stats right now. I'm sure you can find stats pointing at him being the next Gary Payton right now, but you could also probably find stats comparing him to someone who was out of the league after three years, too.

The fact of the matter is, there are just too many inconsistencies and contextual factors to make any type of reliable analysis like this.

You're right that trying to do player comparisons like this is dodgy at best.  Still, I like to try and find comparisons.  I think it's useful to try and get some perspective, because it's easy to get caught up in the current moment and not see a guy clearly when you watch him night after night. 

Sometimes, though, there aren't any good comparisons, or you just get a lot of really divergent outcomes.  Wilt Chamberlain and Mark Blount in the same sampling, that kind of thing.

I do think there is something there when you look at a list of players who started their careers similarly and you see that they are all guys who spent most of their careers as backups.  When you get a large sample of guys with a lot of similar characteristics and career trajectory, that's more than just noise.

Maybe Smart will be another Mike James or Bobby Jackson.  I'm just about done hoping that he'll turn into The Glove, Alvin Robertson, or Big Shot Billups.

[KeepRondo]

I don't see any point in trying to gauge Marcus off of his stats so far. Between injuries and the direction/makeup of the team, there are just way too many contextual factors to try and predict anything based off of his stats right now. I'm sure you can find stats pointing at him being the next Gary Payton right now, but you could also probably find stats comparing him to someone who was out of the league after three years, too.

The fact of the matter is, there are just too many inconsistencies and contextual factors to make any type of reliable analysis like this.

He seems like a smart dude. Has great instincts. I would expect him to get craftier at some point and figure things out. It just hasn't happened. Hopefully we aren't still having this conversation next year or even year 4. Seems 50/50 to me that we might be. 

[KeepRondo]

I don't see any point in trying to gauge Marcus off of his stats so far. Between injuries and the direction/makeup of the team, there are just way too many contextual factors to try and predict anything based off of his stats right now. I'm sure you can find stats pointing at him being the next Gary Payton right now, but you could also probably find stats comparing him to someone who was out of the league after three years, too.

The fact of the matter is, there are just too many inconsistencies and contextual factors to make any type of reliable analysis like this.

You're right that trying to do player comparisons like this is dodgy at best.  Still, I like to try and find comparisons.  Sometimes there aren't any good ones, or you just get a lot of really divergent outcomes.  Wilt Chamberlain and Mark Blount in the same sampling, that kind of thing.

I do think there is something there when you look at a list of players who started their careers similarly and you see that they are all guys who spent most of their careers as backups.

Maybe Smart will be another Mike James or Bobby Jackson.  I'm just about done hoping that he'll turn into The Glove, Alvin Robertson, or Big Shot Billups.

I feel like Billups was a little smoother than Smart. But I might be thinking that because I'm comparing Smart to the always composed polished version of Billups. Having a hard time remembering his play as a second year player.

[PhoSita]

I feel like Billups was a little smoother than Smart. But I might be thinking that because I'm comparing Smart to the always composed polished version of Billups. Having a hard time remembering his play as a second year player.

As a second year guy, Billups only played 45 games, but he averaged just about 14 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 39 / 36 / 90 shooting.

That's similar to the line I was cautiously optimistic about Smart putting up this year.  Now that feels like pie-in-the-sky optimism.

[KeepRondo]

I feel like Billups was a little smoother than Smart. But I might be thinking that because I'm comparing Smart to the always composed polished version of Billups. Having a hard time remembering his play as a second year player.

As a second year guy, Billups only played 45 games, but he averaged just about 14 points, 4 assists, 2 rebounds, 1.5 steals, and 39 / 36 / 90 shooting.

That's similar to the line I was cautiously optimistic about Smart putting up this year.  Now that feels like pie-in-the-sky optimism.

If he can avg 12-13 at 39-41 percent post all star break, that would be fine with me. But yeah, I'm getting impatient also.

[The Oracle]

  Last year all NBA players that played over 1000 minutes, had a positive +/-, greater than 1.5 steals per 36 min., greater than 2.5 assists per 36, greater than 1 offensive rebound per 36, and no more than 2.5 turnovers per 36. 

  7 players fit those statistics they are Draymond Green, Iman Shumpert, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Paul Milsap, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart.

[PhoSita]

  Last year all NBA players that played over 1000 minutes, had a positive +/-, greater than 1.5 steals per 36 min., greater than 2.5 assists per 36, greater than 1 offensive rebound per 36, and no more than 2.5 turnovers per 36. 

  7 players fit those statistics they are Draymond Green, Iman Shumpert, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Paul Milsap, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart.

When you leave out consideration for Smart's most glaring weakness (i.e. the frequency and efficiency of his scoring), that's a great way to get a misleading sampling, wouldn't you say?

The one guard in that group, Shumpert, is a pretty decent comp, though, I think.

[KG Living Legend]

 He sucks right now. I'm going the harsh route. Wasted pick. Only top 10 pick we have and he sucks. Prove me wrong Marcus. You suck.

[celticsclay]

This kind of just seems like an exercise to dump on Smart rather than a real interest in statistical comparisons. I am as bummed about his shooting and offense as anyone but I am giving him a little longer of a pass than passing judgement based on right now.

Another thing to consider with his shooting percentages is, how much better would he be playing with some different kinds of players? The only guy he plays with ever that can create his own shot is thomas (and even he has some limitations in getting his). If you put him on a team with a few better shooters and guys that could occasionally set him up, perhaps that improves the shooting percentages a bit.

All this being said, lets see where he is after 25 games of good health. If he can't do that then their is any even bigger problem in that he just cant stay on the court regardless of how good or bad he could be.

Edit: Also I will add Marcus Smart has played in 83 games in his career so comparing him to players that have done like 150 is pretty big sampling error.

[mctyson]

Career stats through first two seasons:

Player A: 8.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, .370 / .298 / .793, in 23.8 minutes

Player B: 7.0 points, 2.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, .371 / .301 / .725, in 19.8 minutes

Player C: 6.5 points, 2.2 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .344 / .333 / .748, in 19.5 minutes

Player D: 7.9 points, 3.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .357 / .313 / .657, in 26.8 minutes

Player E: 5.3 points, 2.3 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .368 / .376 / .815, in 17.1 minutes


Who are the above?

Marcus Smart must be player D.  The steals and rebounds give it away.  But those other lines are pretty similar in other respects.  What kind of players are we dealing with here?


Player A: Erick Strickland, 1997-1998 Dallas

Player B: Mike James, 2002-2003 Miami

Player C: J.R. Bremer, 2003-2004 Boston, Cleveland, and Golden State

Player E: Steve Blake, 2004-2005 Washington

I think this is more comparable:

Age: 23  Points: 9.4  Assists:  6.2  Rebounds: 3.6  Steals: 1.8  .45/.13/.67  %  in 31 MPG














Gary Payton

[PhoSita]

Career stats through first two seasons:

Player A: 8.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, .370 / .298 / .793, in 23.8 minutes

Player B: 7.0 points, 2.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, .371 / .301 / .725, in 19.8 minutes

Player C: 6.5 points, 2.2 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .344 / .333 / .748, in 19.5 minutes

Player D: 7.9 points, 3.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .357 / .313 / .657, in 26.8 minutes

Player E: 5.3 points, 2.3 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .368 / .376 / .815, in 17.1 minutes


Who are the above?

Marcus Smart must be player D.  The steals and rebounds give it away.  But those other lines are pretty similar in other respects.  What kind of players are we dealing with here?


Player A: Erick Strickland, 1997-1998 Dallas

Player B: Mike James, 2002-2003 Miami

Player C: J.R. Bremer, 2003-2004 Boston, Cleveland, and Golden State

Player E: Steve Blake, 2004-2005 Washington

I think this is more comparable:

Age: 23  Points: 9.4  Assists:  6.2  Rebounds: 3.6  Steals: 1.8  .45/.13/.67  %  in 31 MPG














Gary Payton

What about a guy who shot 45% from the field and only attempted 0.3 three pointers per game in his second season looks similar to what Smart has done to you?

Payton converted 66% of his attempts within three feet and shot around 40% from everywhere else within the 3 point line.  In his second season he actually shot 44% on attempts between 16 feet and 3P territory, which is excellent.

Smart's been very good defensively, but otherwise it's a pretty poor comparison.

[PhoSita]

This kind of just seems like an exercise to dump on Smart rather than a real interest in statistical comparisons.

....

Edit: Also I will add Marcus Smart has played in 83 games in his career so comparing him to players that have done like 150 is pretty big sampling error.

It is true that I've compared him here to guys who already completed their second season.  Marcus has a ways to go in his second season, so we'll see if he can improve his trajectory.

Still, I'd like to hear some suggestions for how I've been so unfair in comparing Smart to these guys.

Quite simply, it's hard to find guards that approached Smart's level of offensive futility through their first season or two in the league that went on to become really good offensive players.  There are a couple examples that I could find (Mike James, Bobby Jackson), but there are lots of examples of guys who were always pretty mediocre.

All of the more flattering comparisons I've been able to find of guards who really struggled to score their first couple years in the league are guys who scored a lot more points, got a lot more assists, or both, because they functioned as their team's primary ballhandler.

Maybe that's the biggest asterisk here.  What kind of numbers would Smart have if he'd been afforded the opportunity to be the guy running the offense from day 1?  On the other hand, if the team felt Smart was ready to play that kind of role in the offense, they probably would have had him do so by now.

[mctyson]

Career stats through first two seasons:

Player A: 8.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, .370 / .298 / .793, in 23.8 minutes

Player B: 7.0 points, 2.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, .371 / .301 / .725, in 19.8 minutes

Player C: 6.5 points, 2.2 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .344 / .333 / .748, in 19.5 minutes

Player D: 7.9 points, 3.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .357 / .313 / .657, in 26.8 minutes

Player E: 5.3 points, 2.3 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .368 / .376 / .815, in 17.1 minutes


Who are the above?

Marcus Smart must be player D.  The steals and rebounds give it away.  But those other lines are pretty similar in other respects.  What kind of players are we dealing with here?


Player A: Erick Strickland, 1997-1998 Dallas

Player B: Mike James, 2002-2003 Miami

Player C: J.R. Bremer, 2003-2004 Boston, Cleveland, and Golden State

Player E: Steve Blake, 2004-2005 Washington

I think this is more comparable:

Age: 23  Points: 9.4  Assists:  6.2  Rebounds: 3.6  Steals: 1.8  .45/.13/.67  %  in 31 MPG














Gary Payton

What about a guy who shot 45% from the field and only attempted 0.3 three pointers per game in his second season looks similar to what Smart has done to you?

Payton converted 66% of his attempts within three feet and shot around 40% from everywhere else within the 3 point line.  In his second season he actually shot 44% on attempts between 16 feet and 3P territory, which is excellent.

Smart's been very good defensively, but otherwise it's a pretty poor comparison.

That wasn't your original post...you just posted some stat lines and said "Hey look Smart is the same."

I can do the exact same thing, and in that line Payton is only demonstrably better with assists (starting PG) and FG %.  And Payton took a long time to shoot 3s well.

[The Oracle]

  Last year all NBA players that played over 1000 minutes, had a positive +/-, greater than 1.5 steals per 36 min., greater than 2.5 assists per 36, greater than 1 offensive rebound per 36, and no more than 2.5 turnovers per 36. 

  7 players fit those statistics they are Draymond Green, Iman Shumpert, Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, Paul Milsap, Kelly Olynyk and Marcus Smart.

When you leave out consideration for Smart's most glaring weakness (i.e. the frequency and efficiency of his scoring), that's a great way to get a misleading sampling, wouldn't you say?

The one guard in that group, Shumpert, is a pretty decent comp, though, I think.

Exactly my point.  In your OP you compare only stats that create a false comparison as to the player that Marcus Smart is or can become.  He changes games in an extremely positive way and all people want to do is focus on the things he hasn't done well yet.  People focus on his own scoring and not whether the team functions well or not with and without him.  Last year the C's were in fact, as a team, much better with him than without him offensively.  With him 103.7 off. rat., and 100.1 without. 

  As for his 3 pt. shooting it has never been as bad as people make it out to be.  He shot 33.5% last year from the 3 pt. line on 4.1 attempts per game.  Very little of his volume comes from the corners where players shoot 4 or 5 % better.  Last year he was 20-50 40% from the corners.   His FG% is naturally skewed downward simply because 4.1 of his 7.1 FG attempts per game come from behind the arc.  Players that shoot a ton of their volume from behind the arc will never post the greatest FG % for this very reason. 

  He has things to work on but he is being unfairly treated by the masses and their lofty, unreasonable expectations of a 2nd year player that almost had 2 fingers ripped off his shooting hand in the summer.