One Of These Is Marcus

[PhoSita]

Career stats through first two seasons:

Player A: 8.5 points, 2.5 assists, 2.6 rebounds, 0.9 steals, .370 / .298 / .793, in 23.8 minutes

Player B: 7.0 points, 2.8 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.8 steals, .371 / .301 / .725, in 19.8 minutes

Player C: 6.5 points, 2.2 assists, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .344 / .333 / .748, in 19.5 minutes

Player D: 7.9 points, 3.0 assists, 3.3 rebounds, 1.5 steals, .357 / .313 / .657, in 26.8 minutes

Player E: 5.3 points, 2.3 assists, 1.6 rebounds, 0.6 steals, .368 / .376 / .815, in 17.1 minutes


Who are the above?





























Marcus Smart must be player D.  The steals and rebounds give it away.  But those other lines are pretty similar in other respects.  What kind of players are we dealing with here?


Player A: Erick Strickland, 1997-1998 Dallas

Player B: Mike James, 2002-2003 Miami

Player C: J.R. Bremer, 2003-2004 Boston, Cleveland, and Golden State

Player E: Steve Blake, 2004-2005 Washington



Best case scenario from that group is Mike James.  He overcame the rough start to his career to become a deadly shooter.  Even averaged 20 points per game once.


These are the best comparisons I could find at Basketball-Reference looking for guards with similar averages to Marcus, including field goal percentage well below 40%, for the first two years of their career.

Of course, Marcus still has a ways to go before he's done with his second season.  I really hope he does some good things with the next few months.

[slightly biased bias fan]

31.8 min  .443 FG%  .167 3P%  .676FT%  3.3RPG  3.7APG  1.8 SPG  .2BPG  12.3PPG

What 3rd year players stat line is this?









Gary Payton, and remember he was a 4 year college guy and was getting consistent minutes. Everyone grows at different rates, the only thing I believe is a major factor in making a player great is basketball I.Q and work ethic.

[walker834]

 Steve Nash averaged  7.9 ppg on like 35 percent shooting in 32 minutes a game in his 3rd year.  He didn't break out or average more than 10 ppg until his 6th year in the league.  There are plenty of players like that.

[chambers]

Chauncey Billups 3rd year:

11 ppg, 39%Fg, 31% 3pt FG,
2.2 rebounds
3.5 assists
1 steal
2 turnovers
32 minutes per game.

[Sketch5]

You also have to put Smarts injury in perspective. Right now he's getting his game legs back.

He also plays with either IT or Turner who tend to want to take the ball up the floor. When Smart gets a chance to take the ball up he seems more aggressive.

Last season he was working on his outside shot, this season he's mixing it up. He was dominating SL this summer, which a second her top 10 should. I wont worry too much about this kid until we make some moves to establish more of a long term line up, and the end of his rookie contract.

[feckless]

You also have to put Smarts injury in perspective. Right now he's getting his game legs back.

He also plays with either IT or Turner who tend to want to take the ball up the floor. When Smart gets a chance to take the ball up he seems more aggressive.

Last season he was working on his outside shot, this season he's mixing it up. He was dominating SL this summer, which a second her top 10 should. I wont worry too much about this kid until we make some moves to establish more of a long term line up, and the end of his rookie contract.

The most recent skid, IMO, is due to Smart making the decisions.  It is not his legs it is his head.  When IT and Evan control the ball we sometimes look like a team.  As great as Marcus is hawking the ball he is in contrast that bad in his shot selection and decision making.  He is on his way to becoming another flaky Tony Allen.

[howl1309]

Marcus needs to take better advantage of his strength. He should be driving to the basket looking for layups and fouls.  He can work on his outside shot over the next few years but driving to the hoop is something that he should be able to do now. He might not be quick enough to drive consistently against a point guard but he should be able to take shooting guards off the dribble.

[hwangjini_1]

honestly, selecting the player comparisons above seems to smack of cherry picking. an expansion of the comparison pool (billups et al) might make this a more interesting thread.

[Vermont Green]

This just shows that you can pick stats to tell any story you want.  I think the issue with Marcus is pretty simple; so far he has not shown the durability to sustain the level of play needed for the NBA.  I think if he can overcome the durability issue, he will be a very good player.  Durability is a very real "IF" though.  He is young enough that he still has plenty of time but it is not a given that he will become more durable.

[Snakehead]

honestly, selecting the player comparisons above seems to smack of cherry picking. an expansion of the comparison pool (billups et al) might make this a more interesting thread.

Yup.  Others already picked some good examples.

He wouldn't be the first guard that took time to come along on offense.  His defense is still fantastic.

This just shows that you can pick stats to tell any story you want.  I think the issue with Marcus is pretty simple; so far he has not shown the durability to sustain the level of play needed for the NBA.  I think if he can overcome the durability issue, he will be a very good player.  Durability is a very real "IF" though.  He is young enough that he still has plenty of time but it is not a given that he will become more durable.

This is true but flat out he needs to shoot better or adjust his game.

[PhoSita]

31.8 min  .443 FG%  .167 3P%  .676FT%  3.3RPG  3.7APG  1.8 SPG  .2BPG  12.3PPG

What 3rd year players stat line is this?









Gary Payton, and remember he was a 4 year college guy and was getting consistent minutes. Everyone grows at different rates, the only thing I believe is a major factor in making a player great is basketball I.Q and work ethic.

Smart's a good distance away from averaging 44% from the field, though.

That stat line tells the story of a good finisher with a broken outsider jumper.

So far, Smart hasn't been particularly effective at consistently getting shots he can make from any part of the floor.

honestly, selecting the player comparisons above seems to smack of cherry picking. an expansion of the comparison pool (billups et al) might make this a more interesting thread.

I looked for first and second year guards, in the 3 point era, height 6 foot to 6 foot 5, who averaged below 37.5% from the field, 9 points or less, 3 assists or less, 4 rebounds or less.

What about that setup seems like cherry picking to you?  I'm trying to find guys whose first couple of years in the league were comparable to what Marcus has done so far.


If you expand the comparisons to <12 ppg, <5 apg, <5 rpg, and <40% fg, you can add quite a few hits, but of course, Smart hasn't come close to those numbers yet.

Some names that come up:

- Chris Duhon
- Langston Galloway
- Greg Anthony
- Iman Shumpert
- Anthony Carter

Still seeing the same kind of trend.

If you focus on the guys in the sample with the highest steal average, a couple more names stand out.

Jon Barry
Bobby Jackson


B-Jax was a pretty good player for a while, so that would not be a bad outcome.

This just shows that you can pick stats to tell any story you want. 

In this case, you can pick Marcus's basic counting stats to tell the story that he's been disappointing and looks like he'll probably be a defensive role player / backup combo guard.

I sure hope that's not the case, but it's becoming harder to deny that he's solidly on that track.

[showtime]

Sorry guys, the reason Smart doesn't take it to the goal more, is because he is not athletic enough and doesn't jump well enough to take it to the goal consistently.

[trickybilly]

Sorry guys, the reason Smart doesn't take it to the goal more, is because he is not athletic enough and doesn't jump well enough to take it to the goal consistently.

The beat athlete on the current boston celtics is jared sullinger. Nah.... probably amir.

[PhoSita]

Sorry guys, the reason Smart doesn't take it to the goal more, is because he is not athletic enough and doesn't jump well enough to take it to the goal consistently.

We've seen Smart make some pretty impressive drives to the rim, with some fairly acrobatic finishes.

He definitely has the ability to actually get there.  But you may be right that he's not quick enough or athletic enough to do so easily, without having to expend a lot of his energy and complete a really difficult layup.

[KeepRondo]

Sorry guys, the reason Smart doesn't take it to the goal more, is because he is not athletic enough and doesn't jump well enough to take it to the goal consistently.

We've seen Smart make some pretty impressive drives to the rim, with some fairly acrobatic finishes.

He definitely has the ability to actually get there.  But you may be right that he's not quick enough or athletic enough to do so easily, without having to expend a lot of his energy and complete a really difficult layup.

He doesn't have the lift.