I am REALLY anxious to see what this trade deadline looks like. I really don't know what to expect.
The landscape in the league seems like it is quite a bit different than in previous season leaving so many questions to be elaborated on in the coming weeks. With the tight bunch of teams currently fighting for the playoffs in the east, and the surprisingly large pile of disappointing teams in the West will there be enough sellers to pair with buyers? How will the rising cap affect valuations? Will teams be willing to part with players who are under contract for 2 – 4 years into the future, or will any future contract certainty command a huge premium to acquire? Does that mean there will be a bunch of expiring for expiring "shuffling the deck chairs" moves instead?
The teams I will most closely be keeping my eye on will be:
New Orleans – Since drafting Anthony Davis this team has done about as bad a job as possible putting a team core around him. They came into the season with playoff expectations and have been pretty awful to date. The GM and new coach probably both under pressure to perform to still have jobs next season. I expect they will make some moves to either a) make a fleeting run at the playoffs, or b) make moves for the future by shipping out the expiring contracts of Eric Gordon and/or Ryan Anderson (who seems to be pretty in demand across the league), or unloading that albatross of a contract they handed to Omir "stone hands" Asik this past summer.
Phoenix – Team is currently a smoldering dumpster fire of disappointing play and locker room discontent. Couple that with a notoriously impatient owner, and I think moves are very likely. Pretty much everyone's job on this team is up in the air, and I'd say anyone aside from Devin Booker could be traded before the deadline. I think Markieff Morris will definitely be moved. Do they dump Tyson Chandler for some value now since he is a bit old for the trajectory of the rest of the roster? Do they trade Brandon Knight and go completely in the tank this season knowing that they have Eric Bledsoe coming back next season, OR do they go completely in the opposite direction and trade Eric Bledsoe to team in need of a future PG (similar to the Andrew Bogut trade GSW made a few years back) for an asset at a different position of which Phoenix needs many.
Miami – I kind of think they will move Hassan Whiteside for value before the deadline, rather than risk losing him in the summer. I don't think he is key to their playoff run this year, but he is a great asset to have stumbled on for absolutely free. They also have Justise Winslow (I expect they will end up keeping him), who would be a primo asset to package in the unlikely event of a blockbuster coming on the market before the deadline passes.
Washington – disappointing team that started the year with expectations, but at current rate looks to either miss the playoffs all together, or sputter out with a whimper. I could see them wanting to make some changes in order to allow the team to make a 2nd half playoff push.
Houston – Morey can't like how this team is playing given that the Rockets fancied themselves as title contenders this year. They really only have one scorer on the team, and a lot of interesting youngish players they probably can move. I think they will shuffle the roster a bit, even if the moves aren't mind blowing.
Boston – we have a lot of delicious appetizers over here. Anyone want to trade one main course for them? Anyone? Please? I assure you they are really good. I actually don't expect much from the C's until the summer, but since this is Celticsblog I had to include a comment on them too.
Other teams I'll be watching to a lesser extent are Indiana (add one more piece), Detroit (Brandon Jennings trade), Milwaukee (address PG of the future, or stay married to MCW), Minnesota (do they move Ricky Rubio) and Sacramento (crazy GM + insane owner = unpredictable trades; no not Cousins though).
Long story short, I'm excited about this year's trade season, and I could be wrong but I don't think it will be a total dud.
nice summary - TP
I think the likeliest buyer is Miami where they're in win-now mode and have a couple of pieces that could fetch a decent haul of rotation players (like what Boston could provide). Whiteside and Winslow could each bring in 1-2 rotation players that fill gaps on their bench without hurting Miami's core.
Say Whiteside and Winslow for (just talent based, not counting the $ balancing) Zeller, Lee, JJ and Turner. Quantity for Quality might be a feasible thing for these teams. Probably have to take a bad deal back from Miami to balance the $.
Each of those guys would solidify Miami's bench. C's would get a look at Whiteside to see if he's worth keeping for next year and Danny finally gets his binkie in Winslow. C's would not be giving up a 'core' player and should solidify their chances of getting in the playoffs this year.
