The real value of a #2 - #4 draft pick

[__ramonezy__]

Many of us can hardly wait for the upcoming draft, where we'll use our Nets pick to get the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. In our heads, this pick is the start of our next championship run and in other threads persons have been posting trade options for the Nets pick... most of which are flatly rejected by the masses because the return isn't good enough.

So I looked at the #2 - #4 picks of the 5 most recent drafts, ignoring the past two years out of fairness to rookie development.

2013 - Oladipo, Porter, Zeller
2012 - Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2011 - Derrick Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson
2010 - Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson
2009 - Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans

Now I don't know about you but with the exception of Harden and maybe Beal, I wouldn't trade our Nets pick for any of the players listed above... which is interesting, because this actually means that the actual player is worth far less than the position of the pick used to get them.

Historically more value may actually be found from #5 - #10 than #2 - #4. After looking at the facts, unless the ping-pong balls bounce our way and we get the #1/Simmons, I would prefer we trade down a bit into the #5 -#10 range and also pick up a proven commodity from the team as well.

In that range projections have the teams below, each of which have realistic pieces that should be intriguing to us:

Timberwolves - Dieng/Lavine
Suns - Knight/Warren
Nuggets - Gallinari
Bucks - Middleton
Blazers - McCollum
Kings - Cauley-Stein/Cousins

and even with this trade down we'll still have access to potentially:
Kris Dunn, Poetl, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield

Ultimately I think this is the best course of action for our rebuild, unless something major shakes loose by the trade deadline

[Celtics18]

Many of us can hardly wait for the upcoming draft, where we'll use our Nets pick to get the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. In our heads, this pick is the start of our next championship run and in other threads persons have been posting trade options for the Nets pick... most of which are flatly rejected by the masses because the return isn't good enough.

So I looked at the #2 - #4 picks of the 5 most recent drafts, ignoring the past two years out of fairness to rookie development.

2013 - Oladipo, Porter, Zeller
2012 - Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2011 - Derrick Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson
2010 - Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson
2009 - Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans

Now I don't know about you but with the exception of Harden and maybe Beal, I wouldn't trade our Nets pick for any of the players listed above... which is interesting, because this actually means that the actual player is worth far less than the position of the pick used to get them.

Historically more value may actually be found from #5 - #10 than #2 - #4. After looking at the facts, unless the ping-pong balls bounce our way and we get the #1/Simmons, I would prefer we trade down a bit into the #5 -#10 range and also pick up a proven commodity from the team as well.

In that range projections have the teams below, each of which have realistic pieces that should be intriguing to us:

Timberwolves - Dieng/Lavine
Suns - Knight/Warren
Nuggets - Gallinari
Bucks - Middleton
Blazers - McCollum
Kings - Cauley-Stein/Cousins

and even with this trade down we'll still have access to potentially:
Kris Dunn, Poetl, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield

Ultimately I think this is the best course of action for our rebuild, unless something major shakes loose by the trade deadline

Nice post.  Historically speaking, the 9th and 10th picks in the draft have yielded astonishingly good players, including some future hall of famers.

Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Demar Derozan, Andre Iguodala, Andre Drummond among others were all picked in the 9th or 10th spot. 

I doubt there's anything significant behind this other than pure dumb luck.  Still,  I find it interesting how drafts are rarely as predictable as many would like them to be.

[alldaboston]

Is it too far fetched to trade down and get Denvers pick and Gallinari?

[Csfan1984]

You can really be selective to prove any point when it comes to the draft. It's a big risk no matter where you select.

[max215]

Many of us can hardly wait for the upcoming draft, where we'll use our Nets pick to get the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. In our heads, this pick is the start of our next championship run and in other threads persons have been posting trade options for the Nets pick... most of which are flatly rejected by the masses because the return isn't good enough.

So I looked at the #2 - #4 picks of the 5 most recent drafts, ignoring the past two years out of fairness to rookie development.

2013 - Oladipo, Porter, Zeller
2012 - Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2011 - Derrick Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson
2010 - Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson
2009 - Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans

Now I don't know about you but with the exception of Harden and maybe Beal, I wouldn't trade our Nets pick for any of the players listed above... which is interesting, because this actually means that the actual player is worth far less than the position of the pick used to get them.

Historically more value may actually be found from #5 - #10 than #2 - #4. After looking at the facts, unless the ping-pong balls bounce our way and we get the #1/Simmons, I would prefer we trade down a bit into the #5 -#10 range and also pick up a proven commodity from the team as well.

In that range projections have the teams below, each of which have realistic pieces that should be intriguing to us:

Timberwolves - Dieng/Lavine
Suns - Knight/Warren
Nuggets - Gallinari
Bucks - Middleton
Blazers - McCollum
Kings - Cauley-Stein/Cousins

and even with this trade down we'll still have access to potentially:
Kris Dunn, Poetl, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield

Ultimately I think this is the best course of action for our rebuild, unless something major shakes loose by the trade deadline

Nice post.  Historically speaking, the 9th and 10th picks in the draft have yielded astonishingly good players, including some future hall of famers.

Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Demar Derozan, Andre Iguodala, Andre Drummond among others were all picked in the 9th or 10th spot. 

I doubt there's anything significant behind this other than pure dumb luck.  Still,  I find it interesting how drafts are rarely as predictable as many would like them to be.

My theory is that elite prospects end up falling to non-pitiful organizations at 9-10 who make the most of these prospects.

[Celtics18]

Many of us can hardly wait for the upcoming draft, where we'll use our Nets pick to get the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. In our heads, this pick is the start of our next championship run and in other threads persons have been posting trade options for the Nets pick... most of which are flatly rejected by the masses because the return isn't good enough.

So I looked at the #2 - #4 picks of the 5 most recent drafts, ignoring the past two years out of fairness to rookie development.

2013 - Oladipo, Porter, Zeller
2012 - Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2011 - Derrick Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson
2010 - Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson
2009 - Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans

Now I don't know about you but with the exception of Harden and maybe Beal, I wouldn't trade our Nets pick for any of the players listed above... which is interesting, because this actually means that the actual player is worth far less than the position of the pick used to get them.

Historically more value may actually be found from #5 - #10 than #2 - #4. After looking at the facts, unless the ping-pong balls bounce our way and we get the #1/Simmons, I would prefer we trade down a bit into the #5 -#10 range and also pick up a proven commodity from the team as well.

In that range projections have the teams below, each of which have realistic pieces that should be intriguing to us:

Timberwolves - Dieng/Lavine
Suns - Knight/Warren
Nuggets - Gallinari
Bucks - Middleton
Blazers - McCollum
Kings - Cauley-Stein/Cousins

and even with this trade down we'll still have access to potentially:
Kris Dunn, Poetl, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield

Ultimately I think this is the best course of action for our rebuild, unless something major shakes loose by the trade deadline

Nice post.  Historically speaking, the 9th and 10th picks in the draft have yielded astonishingly good players, including some future hall of famers.

Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Demar Derozan, Andre Iguodala, Andre Drummond among others were all picked in the 9th or 10th spot. 

I doubt there's anything significant behind this other than pure dumb luck.  Still,  I find it interesting how drafts are rarely as predictable as many would like them to be.

My theory is that elite prospects end up falling to non-pitiful organizations at 9-10 who make the most of these prospects.

That's a plausible theory, I guess. 

Whatever the reason, I take heart in the fact that there almost always players who go on to have really good NBA careers available at the back end of the lottery.

[loco_91]

Most people are too overconfident in their prospect evaluation skills. Probably including yours truly. So it's quite possible that Simmons will not be the best NBA player in the draft, nor any of the top few guys. Remember, Steph Curry was picked 7th behind Hasheem Thabeet (2) and Jonny Flynn (6). Kawhi Leonard went 15th overall and Draymond Green was picked 35th.

[__ramonezy__]

Is it too far fetched to trade down and get Denvers pick and Gallinari?

I actually think a move like this could  benefit both teams. Denver wants young talent to build around and i think we're looking for specific skill sets to enhance all players in our system which Gallinari is at the top of the list.

We could do this trade and still be able to draft jaylen brown,  skal or poeltl...

That being said our pick seems to be turning into Simmons by the minute 

[slamtheking]

Is it too far fetched to trade down and get Denvers pick and Gallinari?

I actually think a move like this could  benefit both teams. Denver wants young talent to build around and i think we're looking for specific skill sets to enhance all players in our system which Gallinari is at the top of the list.

We could do this trade and still be able to draft jaylen brown,  skal or poeltl...

That being said our pick seems to be turning into Simmons by the minute 

Denver would laugh all the way to the bank on that deal.  Gallo's not a good enough asset to justify swapping those picks.

[mef730]

Most people are too overconfident in their prospect evaluation skills. Probably including yours truly. So it's quite possible that Simmons will not be the best NBA player in the draft, nor any of the top few guys. Remember, Steph Curry was picked 7th behind Hasheem Thabeet (2) and Jonny Flynn (6). Kawhi Leonard went 15th overall and Draymond Green was picked 35th.

Agreed, although I'm quite confident in my own abilities: If I advise picking a player, you can be 100% certain that that guy is gonna suck.

Mike

[Denis998]

I think the race is getting tighter for #1, Ingram is showing quite a complete game, probably the best scorer in this draft.

[Big333223]

The thing about having a higher pick is just that you're able to select whoever you want and the lower the pick the less of the field there is to choose from. So ultimately, wherever the pick lands, the most important thing is going to be whether or not Ainge and his crew can evaluate the talent and project the career of these kids accurately.

[jambr380]

Many of us can hardly wait for the upcoming draft, where we'll use our Nets pick to get the cornerstone of our franchise for years to come. In our heads, this pick is the start of our next championship run and in other threads persons have been posting trade options for the Nets pick... most of which are flatly rejected by the masses because the return isn't good enough.

So I looked at the #2 - #4 picks of the 5 most recent drafts, ignoring the past two years out of fairness to rookie development.

2013 - Oladipo, Porter, Zeller
2012 - Kidd-Gilchrist, Beal, Waiters
2011 - Derrick Williams, Kanter, Tristan Thompson
2010 - Turner, Favors, Wesley Johnson
2009 - Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke Evans

Now I don't know about you but with the exception of Harden and maybe Beal, I wouldn't trade our Nets pick for any of the players listed above... which is interesting, because this actually means that the actual player is worth far less than the position of the pick used to get them.

Historically more value may actually be found from #5 - #10 than #2 - #4. After looking at the facts, unless the ping-pong balls bounce our way and we get the #1/Simmons, I would prefer we trade down a bit into the #5 -#10 range and also pick up a proven commodity from the team as well.

In that range projections have the teams below, each of which have realistic pieces that should be intriguing to us:

Timberwolves - Dieng/Lavine
Suns - Knight/Warren
Nuggets - Gallinari
Bucks - Middleton
Blazers - McCollum
Kings - Cauley-Stein/Cousins

and even with this trade down we'll still have access to potentially:
Kris Dunn, Poetl, Jaylen Brown, Buddy Hield

Ultimately I think this is the best course of action for our rebuild, unless something major shakes loose by the trade deadline

Nice post.  Historically speaking, the 9th and 10th picks in the draft have yielded astonishingly good players, including some future hall of famers.

Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul George, Tracy McGrady, Amare Stoudemire, Demar Derozan, Andre Iguodala, Andre Drummond among others were all picked in the 9th or 10th spot. 

I doubt there's anything significant behind this other than pure dumb luck.  Still,  I find it interesting how drafts are rarely as predictable as many would like them to be.

My theory is that elite prospects end up falling to non-pitiful organizations at 9-10 who make the most of these prospects.

I always kind of assumed it was because higher potential / more athletic prospects are still chosen very high, while more skilled players fall a little bit. Just in this last draft, we are seeing Winslow and Turner as really solid choices at 9 and 10.

No matter, if we get #1 or #2, I hope we keep it, unless we are dealing for a super elite player.

[obnoxiousmime]

So because recently the 2-4 picks haven't been the strongest, we should trade it for a known quantity? That's ridiculous. It will depend ultimately on how we feel about the players who are available at that slot.

Hey, I can pick and choose too!

2001: Chandler, P Gasol, E Curry
2002: Jay Williams, Dunleavy, Gooden
2003: Milicic, Anthony, Bosh
2004: Okafor, Ben Gordon, Livingston
2005: M Williams, D Williams, C Paul
2006: Aldridge, Morrison, Thomas
2007: Durant, Horford, Conley
2008: Beasley, Mayo, Westbrook

I count 10 elite/star players there and 5 total busts (Beasley, Morrison, Tyrus Thomas, Jay Williams, Eddy Curry). The rest are rotation players, sometimes starters. Jay Williams and Shaun Livingston did have pretty devastating injuries early in their careers though, which affected their potential.

Anyway, this whole exercise is meaningless. It would only be useful if you knew absolutely nothing about the players coming out this year. Well, we have things like scouting reports and eyes. I happen to believe it's a draft with a few pretty good players who even if they're not elite will be pretty good.

If it does turn out to be a weak draft, it's not impossible for Ainge to trade down. The point is, we want the best possible pick for the most possible options. I trust Ainge not to totally blow such an early pick.

I'm really starting to like Ivan Rabb. I'd scoop him up at 3.