Danny Ainge Missed Again - Terry Rozier

[obnoxiousmime]

I tend to side with the knee-jerkers on these types of posts. Is it holding Ainge to a very high standard? Probably, but I can't remember a title team besides the Heat that didn't knock at least one late pick out of the park.

The Spurs title teams post Robinson were fueled by absolute steals in Parker and Ginobili. The Warriors got a star in Draymond Green in the 2nd round. The Celtics obviously got two huge parts of their title squad in Perkins and Rondo, and only got Garnett because we had Jefferson. Unless you are lucky/crappy enough to build your team primarily with multiple early lottery superstars/picks (Cleveland, Oklahoma City), finding steals in the draft is really important.

Fortunately or not, free agency and tanking don't look like possible options for us right now. That leaves trades and making the most out of late picks. Thankfully trader Danny is still winning practically all his deals. He hasn't gotten a hidden gem in the draft since Rondo though.

Yes, he's drafted some nice role players and that's fine and dandy, but these guys aren't going to be the centerpiece to any deal for a star and after four years the decision whether to keep them comes up. Once they get deals that are closer to fair market value they cease to be bargains and might as well be free agents we picked up.

In conclusion I think it's fair to say Ainge hasn't drafted poorly but also hasn't been amazing the past 8 years or so. It would have been nice if in that time we had gotten a huge steal like say a Giannis or a Butler or a DeAndre Jordan (all players taken within 5 picks of a pick we had). Is that too much to ask? Maybe, but just one steal like that can mean all the difference.

[rollie mass]

the way the celtics play defence and the amount of falls isaiah takes the depth at guard position is necessary-somethging to be said for durable turner and zeller
you saw what smart can do with just a putback and thats coming back from injury
all those reach ins and fighting over the top by perimeter defence
then there is possible trade of avery and smart or turner
rozier was a combine superstar,he needs time and coaching
kris dunn my type of guard over smart due to balance of height weight wingspan coupled with quickness and shiftiness and ability to stop on dime-i would love marcus and dunn
 possibly ainge saw rozier getting to that point
 but gotta love that 6-4-with 6-9 wingspan-dunn

[The One]

I like Rozier now...didn't like him at the time he was drafted.

How about this...let's give him some time...

[SHAQATTACK]

He has almost zero NBA playing time how can you make a prediction without the guy ever being on the court .  It took AB years to develop a decent game. 

Please give the guy a chance to actually see the floor enough to gain condifence.

[ssspence]

first, ainge is an above average drafter. his record shows that again and again. but no one, not even san antonio, bats close to .1000

This is a complete myth, particularly over the 2nd half of his tenure. What's worse, to try to throw in a direct comparison to San Antonio is downright offensive.

Ainge is a very good GM, but the draft is clearly his biggest weakness.

That's quite a myth -- an "above average drafter".  He wasn't suggesting Ainge was legendary or even very good.

Smart, Sullinger, Kelly, Hunter, Mickey, Rozier, Young.  Oh and Fab.  For the last 3 years that looks above average to me given his draft positions.  The myth of above average lives on.

Case in point.

[PhoSita]

I tend to side with the knee-jerkers on these types of posts. Is it holding Ainge to a very high standard? Probably, but I can't remember a title team besides the Heat that didn't knock at least one late pick out of the park.

The Spurs title teams post Robinson were fueled by absolute steals in Parker and Ginobili. The Warriors got a star in Draymond Green in the 2nd round. The Celtics obviously got two huge parts of their title squad in Perkins and Rondo, and only got Garnett because we had Jefferson. Unless you are lucky/crappy enough to build your team primarily with multiple early lottery superstars/picks (Cleveland, Oklahoma City), finding steals in the draft is really important.

Fortunately or not, free agency and tanking don't look like possible options for us right now. That leaves trades and making the most out of late picks. Thankfully trader Danny is still winning practically all his deals. He hasn't gotten a hidden gem in the draft since Rondo though.

Yes, he's drafted some nice role players and that's fine and dandy, but these guys aren't going to be the centerpiece to any deal for a star and after four years the decision whether to keep them comes up. Once they get deals that are closer to fair market value they cease to be bargains and might as well be free agents we picked up.

In conclusion I think it's fair to say Ainge hasn't drafted poorly but also hasn't been amazing the past 8 years or so. It would have been nice if in that time we had gotten a huge steal like say a Giannis or a Butler or a DeAndre Jordan (all players taken within 5 picks of a pick we had). Is that too much to ask? Maybe, but just one steal like that can mean all the difference.

Excellent post.  Agreed.


Ainge needs to hit a major home run either with a trade or with some of these picks that fall outside the top 5, and largely outside the top 12.

The trades for Thomas and Crowder were very good deals that have helped launch the team from tankerific to where it is now.  I'd call those doubles, though, not home runs.  A home run would set this team on a path to contention.

Given his draft record, I think Ainge is very much above average at identifying guys who can make it as role players in the NBA.  I'm less sure about his pedigree as a guy who can identify future stars.

[rollie mass]

rozier learning how to play point 13 assists in his latest game-learning how to break down defence and kick or lob not force shots or get out of control-perfect place to learn along with mickey

[KG Living Legend]

 Agreed Rollie, very happy Rozier is avd 10apg for Maine. Where did that come from? He didn't pass much in college.

 Dunn however I do like him a lot, but wanted to point out he's 6'2" with his shoes off.

 He's exactly Smart's height and wingspan, but obviously much quicker, lighter, better passer finisher.

[rollie mass]

kg-this was posted before i looked at the number of shots he took because high assist count i assumed he was looking to improve that and sacrificing at other end which he didn't,he also had 5 steals -again they were under estimating his wingspan

[BudweiserCeltic]

Bradley is out. Hunter is injured as well last I checked.

So Young and/or Rozier might get some minutes.

[Evantime34]

Bradley is out. Hunter is injured as well last I checked.

So Young and/or Rozier might get some minutes.

Hunter was at practice yesterday so I think he is good to go.

I hope that Stevens starts Smart and then goes with Hunter as the back up 2. Or even plays Turner, Hunter and Young in the second unit.

Rozier will eventually get his chance, I don't think it will be until after the trade deadline though.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Bradley is out. Hunter is injured as well last I checked.

So Young and/or Rozier might get some minutes.

Hunter was at practice yesterday so I think he is good to go.

I hope that Stevens starts Smart and then goes with Hunter as the back up 2. Or even plays Turner, Hunter and Young in the second unit.

Rozier will eventually get his chance, I don't think it will be until after the trade deadline though.

I personally think it's a good opportunity to run him alongside Smart myself, so I'd love to give that a look.

[jdpapa3]

Point guards have weird growth curves and we've heard about knee tendonitis with him. I'd hold off on the sweeping judgments until about a year from now.

[oldtype]

He has almost zero NBA playing time how can you make a prediction without the guy ever being on the court .  It took AB years to develop a decent game. 

Please give the guy a chance to actually see the floor enough to gain condifence.

Isn't it a problem that we drafted a guy we knew full well would get 0 pt? Even if he's got potential, how's he going to develop when the team is built in a way that doesn't even give him garbage time minutes?

Rondae Hollis Jefferson would be getting serious playing time on this team right now given how weak we are on the wing. Sam Dekker probably would be as well. Does Rozier really have that much more potential that we're willing to draft him over those guys despite knowing that we're going to more or less punt about a year of his development?

[rollie mass]

it is in practice and games in maine where he can put to use what hes shown and told to do-its a massive jump to point guard in the pros-mudiay and d'angelo struggle-marcus has that defensive intensity size and strength to have forced his playing time-anybody that puts young and rj on court at same time
must have played another sport-
i really like rj but both of those guys have to work very hard to get over screens
you got to blend them and pick who they guard -like when rj dominated martin but batum backing him down ,or when rj tried to stop kaminsky-ouch