Author Topic: It might be worth it to us to really overpay in a deadline trade for a star.  (Read 6136 times)

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Offline Hemingway

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Obviously, you don't want to get in a habit of overpaying in trades. Also, obvious is that we are playing better than ok and the sky is not falling. That said...

The future as far at it pertains to getting a star looks very bleak. a few months out from the deadline and there are no real rumors of a disgruntled star. There do not look to be a lot of star FAs to get in the summer and for the next 2 summers everyone will have max money to spend. Maybe we can get some draft luck for a change, but any rookie we get will probably not help us tremendously right away. So for all these reasons, it may be time to make offers we wouldn't otherwise make.

I've said it before, but I really like what we have in AB, Smart, IT and Crowder. The preference would be to trade even the nets picks before trading them. So if we can keep them, we don't really need help at the 1 and 2. If we can get a really good 3, we can move Crowder to the 4.

So guys that fit the bill for our need, guys that haven't been rumored to be on the block but seem like they could be traded are guys like DMC, Melo, Howard, Durrant exc. It might make sense to over pay to get one of them. Think of the opportunity cost. If we can make ourselves a top 5 or 6 team this year, we can probably get a FA this summer that we otherwise could not. The same is probably true for next summer.

If Ainge started calling around offering Lee and other players plus ALL the picks, would teams like Sac, NYK, Hou and OKC have any interest?

Offline pearljammer10

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I think that's been the plan all along. Collect as many assets as possible and overpay for the first superstar that becomes available.

Offline Hemingway

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Yeah, agreed. I think we won't have the luxury to be picky. People are quick to say pass on Melo and Howard, if we can get KD or DMC, fine but in all reality if we can get any of these guys we probably have to take it no matter what the cost is.

We are far from a treadmill team now but if we end up just spinnin our wheels for 2 years waiting for the cap to even out and other teams to waste their space we will be a treadmill team but then. If we don't get someone soon, I think we will be looking at replacing out minor stars and great role players 2 years from now, replacing prospects on rookie contracts with new prospects on new rookie contracts exc.

I see this deadline as hugely important for us. 

Offline Ilikesports17

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Yeah, agreed. I think we won't have the luxury to be picky. People are quick to say pass on Melo and Howard, if we can get KD or DMC, fine but in all reality if we can get any of these guys we probably have to take it no matter what the cost is.

We are far from a treadmill team now but if we end up just spinnin our wheels for 2 years waiting for the cap to even out and other teams to waste their space we will be a treadmill team but then. If we don't get someone soon, I think we will be looking at replacing out minor stars and great role players 2 years from now, replacing prospects on rookie contracts with new prospects on new rookie contracts exc.

I see this deadline as hugely important for us.
I wouldn't get my hopes up for the deadline. This offseason for me is the pivotal part of the rebuild.

Although I must admit I thought that last offseason we had to add someone to take a step forward. I knew we could not get an Aldridge or a butler but felt we should go hard after Harris and Momroe. However I think Danny did a nice job not wasting any assets.

Offline incoherent

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The plus side is that we are absolutely set up to overpay.  With contracts like Crowder/Bradley/Thomas we are in a great position to outbid anyone and if we have to trade we have more to trade then anyone.

All we need is for someone to become available... Which hasn't happened yet.

Offline chambers

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Considering our treasure chest, other GM's are always going to be asking us to overpay in trades for studs.

Million dollar question is. ..

Where is this player coming from?
"We are lucky we have a very patient GM that isn't willing to settle for being good and coming close. He wants to win a championship and we have the potential to get there still with our roster and assets."

quoting 'Greg B' on RealGM after 2017 trade deadline.
Read that last line again. One more time.

Offline slightly biased bias fan

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Considering our treasure chest, other GM's are always going to be asking us to overpay in trades for studs.

Million dollar question is. ..

Where is this player coming from?

It seems that Cousins is the only one who could be available but most probably at the end of the season, when they find out the positions of the Brooklyn, Lakers picks.

Offline Celtics17

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I just don't see Ainge overpaying on a big scale, it's not in his nature. Ainge seems to search for value at every turn and then to all of a sudden 'overpay' seems self defeating. I can see him paying a lot for a young, healthy player who is a star or is projected to be but not for a guy like Howard or Melo.

I really think DA is trying to build a dynasty with the C's. He was a part of one and feels he can do the same. If he 'hits' on just one of the Nets picks and manages to do the same on just one of the next threee Celts picks then swings a multi player trade of our current roster for a much better player then he has a shot. Can't see him sacrificing the future for one 'star' player, at least not right now. I guess if that player were along the line of a young, healthy and not often injured Durant then maybe but not sure that player is even in the league right now.

Offline CFAN38

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I'm fine with an over pay for a star this deadline, I'm even ok with using some assets for a fallen star like big al or Noah. But I wouldn't include the 16 nets unless the cs are getting back a perceived untouchable you stud star. That pick should not be touched till draft day.
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Offline e4sym0de

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I would be very hesitant to overpay for someone like Melo or Howard. The only Free Agent really moving the needle next offseason will be Durant and acquiring a guy like Melo, Howard or even DMC will give you an outside shot at him at best. If you don´t land Durant, you have blown future assets to become better now but without any chance at contending. Seems like a move to mediocrity to me. Teams like the Spurs, Cavs and Warriors are so far ahead of the Celtics at the moment, trading or signing disgruntled or aging tier2 stars will not change that. I would prefer to stay patient.

Offline Chief

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The problem is that we have more picks than we can use. That's why Danny was trying to cash in at this year's draft. So I'm certain, he'll try at trade deadline to cash in a few. The Nets pick is the only one really worth keeping.
Once you are labeled 'the best' you want to stay up there, and you can't do it by loafing around.
 
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Offline Surferdad

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Yeah, agreed. I think we won't have the luxury to be picky. People are quick to say pass on Melo and Howard, if we can get KD or DMC, fine but in all reality if we can get any of these guys we probably have to take it no matter what the cost is.

We are far from a treadmill team now but if we end up just spinnin our wheels for 2 years waiting for the cap to even out and other teams to waste their space we will be a treadmill team but then. If we don't get someone soon, I think we will be looking at replacing out minor stars and great role players 2 years from now, replacing prospects on rookie contracts with new prospects on new rookie contracts exc.

I see this deadline as hugely important for us.
I wouldn't get my hopes up for the deadline. This offseason for me is the pivotal part of the rebuild.

Although I must admit I thought that last offseason we had to add someone to take a step forward. I knew we could not get an Aldridge or a butler but felt we should go hard after Harris and Momroe. However I think Danny did a nice job not wasting any assets.
Well he almost overpaid for Winslow. Very glad that one didn't happen.

Offline CelticSince83

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Obviously, you don't want to get in a habit of overpaying in trades. Also, obvious is that we are playing better than ok and the sky is not falling. That said...

The future as far at it pertains to getting a star looks very bleak. a few months out from the deadline and there are no real rumors of a disgruntled star. There do not look to be a lot of star FAs to get in the summer and for the next 2 summers everyone will have max money to spend. Maybe we can get some draft luck for a change, but any rookie we get will probably not help us tremendously right away. So for all these reasons, it may be time to make offers we wouldn't otherwise make.

I've said it before, but I really like what we have in AB, Smart, IT and Crowder. The preference would be to trade even the nets picks before trading them. So if we can keep them, we don't really need help at the 1 and 2. If we can get a really good 3, we can move Crowder to the 4.

So guys that fit the bill for our need, guys that haven't been rumored to be on the block but seem like they could be traded are guys like DMC, Melo, Howard, Durrant exc. It might make sense to over pay to get one of them. Think of the opportunity cost. If we can make ourselves a top 5 or 6 team this year, we can probably get a FA this summer that we otherwise could not. The same is probably true for next summer.

If Ainge started calling around offering Lee and other players plus ALL the picks, would teams like Sac, NYK, Hou and OKC have any interest?

Crowder is 6'6

Offline Hemingway

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I would be very hesitant to overpay for someone like Melo or Howard. The only Free Agent really moving the needle next offseason will be Durant and acquiring a guy like Melo, Howard or even DMC will give you an outside shot at him at best. If you don´t land Durant, you have blown future assets to become better now but without any chance at contending. Seems like a move to mediocrity to me. Teams like the Spurs, Cavs and Warriors are so far ahead of the Celtics at the moment, trading or signing disgruntled or aging tier2 stars will not change that. I would prefer to stay patient.

I guess it comes down to if you think adding DMC, Melo or Howard for Lee and picks would make us contending right now or not. You seem to think it wouldn't, I think it would. With DMC for example we would probably have a 20 percent shot at a title this year. That is contending. We'd probably also have a 50 percent shot of adding a rich chaser buy out that would give us an extra few percent shot at a title.

Offline obnoxiousmime

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We do need a superstar, but overpaying for an old one would be a huge mistake. Ainge has done a good job collecting assets and to throw it all away for someone who would only provide a few years at peak performance would be foolish.

Right now the Warriors, Cavs, and Spurs are way ahead of the other teams and if you deplete the asset collection it has to be a move that realistically gives you a shot at defeating them. I'm fine with going for a superstar who is younger like Durant or Cousins, but guys like Melo, either Gasols, and Howard should be avoided.

You really should differentiate between the truly valuable younger stars like Durant and Cousins and those other guys. An overpay for someone like Melo would likely be a disastrous move. He's already proven he can't single-handedly lift a team in the playoffs and now you have no second moves available. Also, Melo has never shown that he can attract FAs to play with him.

The good thing about Durant is that 30 teams will actually have the opportunity to court him this offseason without any need to lose a bunch of assets. The Celtics should be figuring out whether they have a shot at him through back channels (I know it's unlikely but you have to try), then use their assets in a deal for other talent that would secure his signing. This is what Cleveland did when LeBron told them to trade Wiggins for Love and re-sign Tristan Thompson to a max deal. The disadvantage the Celtics face is that they don't already have a surefire star on the roster currently, nor do they have any hometown sway with Durant like Cleveland had with LeBron. The Love deal was also only possible because the Cavs lucked out in the lottery. We don't know what the Brooklyn pick will be yet.

It would be funny if Washington lucked into the first pick and then used it to deal for Cousins. Durant would happily go back home for a lineup of Wall, Beal, Durant, and Cousins. Unfortunately oftentimes it's better to be lucky than good, especially when the draft lottery is concerned. Whoever wins the lottery suddenly will have an insanely valuable trade chip.