Author Topic: One thing is certain  (Read 6786 times)

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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #15 on: December 30, 2015, 06:04:44 PM »

Offline Granath

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Why can't Ainge just trade the picks forward? Picks this year are always worth more than picks next year, so why couldn't he package 2-3 mid-2nds this year for a protected 1st in 2017?
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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #16 on: December 30, 2015, 06:20:50 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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11 players under contract for next season, four free agents.  Re-sign Sullinger.  Let Turner, Lee, and Zeller walk, Cut Jerebko and his unguaranteed contract.  Four spots for four draft picks, use the other picks to try to move up, or sell them off to a team that has no picks like Cleveland or Miami, or take a Euro-stash guy.
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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #17 on: December 30, 2015, 08:59:08 PM »

Offline ThePaintedArea

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11 players under contract for next season, four free agents.  Re-sign Sullinger.  Let Turner, Lee, and Zeller walk, Cut Jerebko and his unguaranteed contract.  Four spots for four draft picks, use the other picks to try to move up, or sell them off to a team that has no picks like Cleveland or Miami, or take a Euro-stash guy.

Agree about Sullinger.

Letting Zeller walk would waste the development time the Celtics have put into him. The QO is a small price to pay, after all, to retain their rights to a young, skilled big man who is a very tradeable asset.

Turner is a more difficult problem, and I can't say that I have a strong opinion. Brad says he's adding value despite not being loved by advanced metrics, which is very interesting indeed - they would certainly need to replace Turner's shot-creating skill set, at a minimum; court time for RJ Hunter this year is indicated, though he's not likely to be ready to step into the role as early as next Fall.

Boston completely rehabilitated Turner's career; it would be a shame for him to just walk away. But that might be exactly what happens.

I would keep Jerebko. The salary going forward is likely extremely reasonable for a guy with his versatility. If he's your tenth man, you're a very good team, and he makes an ideal tenth man - and the price is right.

Re-signing David Lee at a lower price is an option, but an unlikely one. Picking up Amir's option is a lot more likely.

You're proposing that they add four rookies to the roster next Summer? I'd bet against it.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #18 on: December 30, 2015, 09:03:10 PM »

Offline Big333223

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The OP is basically correct, we're not using all of these picks, no matter what.

I think we should be looking to teams that have failed to meet expectations. The Suns, Pelicans, Bucks, and the like. Try to go after some of their best talent now that they're forced to look toward rebuilding. I'd love to make some kind of 3-for-1 deal that sends out some players and picks for a talented player. I think Ainge has to be looking that way.

The question is, who on these teams do we want?
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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #19 on: December 31, 2015, 12:50:47 AM »

Offline oldtype

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Why can't Ainge just trade the picks forward? Picks this year are always worth more than picks next year, so why couldn't he package 2-3 mid-2nds this year for a protected 1st in 2017?

Yeah I think this is probably a viable option if we can't make any deals. Just find teams that really like somebody in this year's draft and roll the picks on to 2017 or later.

Would be nice if we could consolidate multiple 2nd into 1sts in the process, but if that's not an option we could always just give up our own 1st round pick for a future pick from a team that's likely to be mid-1st next year.


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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #20 on: December 31, 2015, 05:56:55 AM »

Offline TheReaLPuba

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This is actually a major problem.

Yes we have a stock pile of picks but because we have so much they lose their value.

Other teams know we won't be using them all so we're forced into a corner to trade them away without getting close to equal value in return.

The only teams that would trade closer to equal value are teams with zero picks...are there teams out there with no picks?

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #21 on: December 31, 2015, 07:57:03 AM »

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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11 players under contract for next season, four free agents.  Re-sign Sullinger.  Let Turner, Lee, and Zeller walk, Cut Jerebko and his unguaranteed contract.  Four spots for four draft picks, use the other picks to try to move up, or sell them off to a team that has no picks like Cleveland or Miami, or take a Euro-stash guy.

Agree about Sullinger.

Letting Zeller walk would waste the development time the Celtics have put into him. The QO is a small price to pay, after all, to retain their rights to a young, skilled big man who is a very tradeable asset.

Turner is a more difficult problem, and I can't say that I have a strong opinion. Brad says he's adding value despite not being loved by advanced metrics, which is very interesting indeed - they would certainly need to replace Turner's shot-creating skill set, at a minimum; court time for RJ Hunter this year is indicated, though he's not likely to be ready to step into the role as early as next Fall.

Boston completely rehabilitated Turner's career; it would be a shame for him to just walk away. But that might be exactly what happens.

I would keep Jerebko. The salary going forward is likely extremely reasonable for a guy with his versatility. If he's your tenth man, you're a very good team, and he makes an ideal tenth man - and the price is right.

Re-signing David Lee at a lower price is an option, but an unlikely one. Picking up Amir's option is a lot more likely.

You're proposing that they add four rookies to the roster next Summer? I'd bet against it.
I just can not justify having players on the team that:
1) Will not be here next year because they:
     A)Resign with another team
     B) get waived at the end of season/summer
2) Give us an inflated  amount of wins
     A) affects our draft placement
     B) Can and has led to us offering too much for a pick we deserved to have(Winslow)
3)None of the non-returning players/vets have increased their trade value which ended up materializing in a trade for A STARTER/STAR
4)Takes time away from prospects that could be used for development
5) Takes roster spots on the team that we could use for high-risk/high-reward players
6)It is delaying the inevitable
7) It is a lot like the FED and printing money...its not real:invest (trade/draft) for gold and silver!

OBV getting IT was great work at last years trade deadline. But after getting IT Danny should have waived Bass, Jonas, Gigi and tried to trade Zeller or ET.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #22 on: December 31, 2015, 02:07:15 PM »

Offline Celtics4ever

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Quote
11 players under contract for next season, four free agents.  Re-sign Sullinger.  Let Turner, Lee, and Zeller walk, Cut Jerebko and his unguaranteed contract.  Four spots for four draft picks, use the other picks to try to move up, or sell them off to a team that has no picks like Cleveland or Miami, or take a Euro-stash guy.

Your going to resign a guy who has had chronic injury and weight issues and shoots poorly.  Who can't even put it together in a contract year?

I think JC is a credible SF, I like our guards.   I would like to see us upgrade at PF and C.  Those are biggest holes and one of these guys needs to be a scorer.   Sully is a rebound specialist from what we have seen.   I would bet money if he does not sign a reasonable contract he is gone.   They are not going to shell out big bucks to a guy who shoots  .42% from the field as a PF and is in the bottom third of the NBA in TS% percentage. 

295th in the league to be exact out of 328.

http://www.sportingcharts.com/nba/stats/player-true-shooting-percent-leaders/2015/

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #23 on: December 31, 2015, 02:18:35 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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This is actually a major problem.

Yes we have a stock pile of picks but because we have so much they lose their value.

Other teams know we won't be using them all so we're forced into a corner to trade them away without getting close to equal value in return.

The only teams that would trade closer to equal value are teams with zero picks...are there teams out there with no picks?

This logic only works when there are a small number of trading partners (or one).

With many teams out there, they will compete to set the market for the pick, regardless of how much we value it.

There are plenty of teams looking to acquire mid-first rounders. Any contender who sees an NBA-ready guy they'd like to lock up cheaply will be willing to send back a future first that should be better than the one this year.

This is especially true given the new cap, which will drive the market price of a replacement-level free agent up to something that is several multiples of a rookie-scale deal.

Bottom line, those picks are moveable, and we shouldn't be concerned at this point.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #24 on: December 31, 2015, 02:31:21 PM »

Offline Evantime34

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This is actually a major problem.

Yes we have a stock pile of picks but because we have so much they lose their value.

Other teams know we won't be using them all so we're forced into a corner to trade them away without getting close to equal value in return.

The only teams that would trade closer to equal value are teams with zero picks...are there teams out there with no picks?
New York, Miami, Houston, Cleveland, OKC, Dallas and Brooklyn do not have first round picks. A lot more teams than that have no second round picks (since Boston and Philly pretty much own half of the 2nd round picks)

This is probably going to be the last year of the current salary slotting for draft picks. A year in which the cap is exploding these low salary slots take up a much smaller percentage of the cap. In other words in terms of salary draft picks are more valuable than ever.

I think it's less likely that every team colludes to not give the C's fair value than that teams in need of value see an opportunity to obtain value and at least one of them gives a good offer.
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Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #25 on: December 31, 2015, 03:22:22 PM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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This is actually a major problem.

Yes we have a stock pile of picks but because we have so much they lose their value.

Other teams know we won't be using them all so we're forced into a corner to trade them away without getting close to equal value in return.

The only teams that would trade closer to equal value are teams with zero picks...are there teams out there with no picks?
New York, Miami, Houston, Cleveland, OKC, Dallas and Brooklyn do not have first round picks. A lot more teams than that have no second round picks (since Boston and Philly pretty much own half of the 2nd round picks)


Exactly.

Funny how that works - we have tons of picks, and many other teams have none, which will drive up their value. It's almost like there is a mathematical relationship between the two phenomena!



Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #26 on: December 31, 2015, 04:00:57 PM »

Online Vermont Green

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We found out last draft that mid to late first rounders are not worth much when you are trying to consolidate/move-up.  That means our pick and the Dallas pick don't have great value and the second rounders even less.

I think a good way to get value out of these is to trade for future picks.  For example, trade the Dallas pick for a future first plus something (not sure what the something might be).

The seconds are tough.  I can see someone trading a future second for a second or maybe even two future seconds for a PHI or MIN second.  Drafting for the rights to someone you know will stay in Europe is good too but that doesn't usually end up leading to all that much value.

I don't think we gave up all that much to get the second rounders so I guess it is no big loss but I don't think we are going to get much for these.  Let's see what Danny can do.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #27 on: December 31, 2015, 04:11:44 PM »

Offline sdceltsfan

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This is why I think it's a wise gamble to trade for Dwight Howard, if he's actually available. We can flip Lee's expiring, Jerebeko, a 1st, and a couple 2nd's and probably land him at this point. To Houston, his value is at the lowest point, as he clearly has put it out there that he dislikes playing there.

Harden won't get it done for them by himself, so they will be able to go in to 2016 summer with a massive cap amount to even go for Durant possibly. They will get some picks for a rebuild in the process.

This helps us for a couple reasons:

1. As much as I'd like to think this team is going to have high appeal to a marquee FA this summer, it probably won't, unless of course, we land Simmons with #1 overall. We will certainly have the $$$ if we stand pat and let Lee expire, to make a solid mid-tier signing, but is that really what is going to improve the team significantly?

2. Trading for Howard, then gives us the most massive, and appealing expiring deal for next season. If he doesn't work out, both contending and non-contending teams will be looking to swing deals with us, if Howard isn't a fit here.

3. Dwight Howard clearly still has ability. Most of his ability comes from his size obviously, but it's there. We need a rim-protector, and we need a face to this franchise. He might be the best option for both of these things. If Stevens finds a way to work his game in to this squad (which I feel is very possible), we all of a sudden have a blossoming team, with top 3-5 1st rounders also coming in to the talent-pool, along with a recognizable star-figure, who can then lure another star player to signing after the end of next season. Shoot, he might be an instant fit here, and then all of a sudden, we are contending in the East come playoff time. I don't believe his career is over....but he clearly has an ego, that a coach like Stevens can reel in a little, but also find ways to feed and appease.

Or, like I said earlier.....he sucks for us. We took a small gamble, and it only costs us a couple picks that we wouldn't have otherwise been able to roster. Trading both Lee/Jerebeko and getting Howard back, then frees up one more roster spot for the draft.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #28 on: December 31, 2015, 06:38:15 PM »

Offline walker834

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What about Jabari Parker?  SEems to me like the bucks are going to have issues with Carter Williams, Middleton, Parker, Giannis and Monroe all coexisting.  We could offer up some shooting, bigs and picks for a guy like Jabari.  Depends on how we feel about a guy like Jabari vs what we could get in the draft and if we can even get Simmons.

Re: One thing is certain
« Reply #29 on: December 31, 2015, 08:10:25 PM »

Offline LooseCannon

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What about Jabari Parker?  SEems to me like the bucks are going to have issues with Carter Williams, Middleton, Parker, Giannis and Monroe all coexisting.  We could offer up some shooting, bigs and picks for a guy like Jabari.  Depends on how we feel about a guy like Jabari vs what we could get in the draft and if we can even get Simmons.

I think Parker could be available if you could offer a young player who has as much perceived star potential as Parker in return, but I think it's likely they hold onto him until they view him as a failure or see a need to make a move for financial reasons.  I'm not convinced that Parker is a future star. 
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